Lyons Australian Nuclear Paper - References to India

India's long range nuclear deliverers - the Agnis and K-15

An excellent assessment by Rod Lyon, a Program Director at the the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in Canberra has written a ground breaking paper A delicate issue: Asia's nuclear future Monday, 14 December 2009 ("Download PDF" version is free) . Some of it deals with India and much with Pakistan.The summary includes: "The world stands on the cusp of a new era in nuclear relations—one in which Asia is likely to become the dominant influence on global nuclear arrangements...The report concludes that Australian strategic policy should retain the flexibility to accommodate a range of possible Asian nuclear futures, striking a balance between its ordering and hedging strategies during a possible turbulent era in regional security."

I will address issues for Australia in a subsequent blog or journal article. Some interesting references to India include:

- page.10 - "But there’s the rub: just as some banks and financial institutions were deemed ‘too big to fail’ in the recent global financial crisis, aren’t some possible proliferators going to be ‘too big to sanction’ if we hit a nuclear tipping point in East Asia? For example, is Australia going to apply strong sanctions against a proliferating Japan, one of our strongest trade partners? After all, current evidence suggests that a great-power proliferator is already treated differently from others. India is the case in point."- p.12 "If we were to look at the case study of the India–Pakistan nuclear relationship—which is grounded in an enduring strategic rivalry, and therefore not ‘typical’ of the broader nuclear relationships in Asia—it’s a moot point whether Pakistani behaviour has been much altered by the ‘deterrence’ policies of India. Indeed, the case seems to show that Pakistan doesn’t even accept a long‑term condition of strategic asymmetry with India, and that it intends to use its nuclear weapons as an ‘equaliser’ against India’s larger conventional forces by building a nuclear arsenal larger than the Indian arsenal arrayed against it."- p.14 - Excellent "Table 1: Current, planned and proposed civil nuclear energy programs in Asia" including numbers and total Mw of Indian reactors.

- p.15 - "China has an arsenal much closer to the 250–400 warhead range, for a ratio of about 1:20 with both the US and Russia. India has perhaps 70–100 warheads (for a ratio of 1:3 or 1:4 with China). Japan has none. Pakistan’s arsenal is generally thought to be somewhere in the 70–100 warhead range (a 1:1 ratio with India), although reports suggest that it has been moving vigorously recently to enhance the quantity and quality of its weapons."

- p.19 "India sees a strategic future in which it ‘escapes’ the localised strategic rivalry it has with Pakistan and plays a larger role upon the bigger stage of the Asian theatre. It knows that its nuclear arsenal isn’t really about Pakistan, but about the bigger issue of its place at the ‘Asian table’. How much asymmetry can New Delhi tolerate, and with whom?"

[more]"...It isn’t entirely clear that Russia and India are indifferent to the growth of Chinese power. As one Indian strategic analyst has observed:

"for India to limit itself well short of the nuclear weapons strength of the second‑tier nuclear power, China, with some 500 warheads/weapons, is to accept a status on par with that of Pakistan by default … The logic of nuclear technology dictates that a big country, like India … will not only acquire an arsenal it thinks is militarily adequate, but one that it feels will do justice to its size, resources and potential, and will help realize its ambitions. "(Karnad 2005:552)

"... As a recent assessment concluded: India and Pakistan each claim minimum nuclear deterrence policies; but in South Asia minimum deterrence does not call for a finite ceiling on the development of nuclear weapons and delivery systems … [It] is a dynamic concept that changes with the evolving threat environment. The ‘minimum’ label has more to do with Indian and Pakistani desires not to provoke nuclear-armed adversaries (China and India, respectively) or the United States and other nonproliferation stalwarts. (Khan and Lavoy 2008:229)"

- p.31 - "It is possible, of course, that non‑state actors might yet turn out to be much more serious nuclear players. At one level, they might be ongoing strategic irritants that provoke strategic confrontations between nuclear-armed states. The terrorist attacks on the Indian parliament in December 2001 and on Mumbai in November 2008 illustrate the strategic challenges that non‑state groups can bring to an Indian–Pakistani relationship already fraught with a legacy of tensions."

- p.32 - "It’s reasonable to assume that there are provisions for ‘mating’ and deploying some number of nuclear warheads in particular crisis scenarios. Logically, those scenarios probably involve a crisis between India and Pakistan, for the simple reason that ‘the nuclear dimension of regional security in South Asia is essentially a deterrence construct between India and Pakistan’ (Khan 2009). Media reports suggest that some US officials worried most about the Mumbai terrorist incident precisely because it might generate a set of escalatory tensions that could result in such circumstances, fully mated and deployed Pakistani warheads being more vulnerable to ambush and theft than their separated components might be under normal, peacetime conditions."

These are just some of the sections focusing on India. There is so much more in Lyon's paper about the international nuclear weapons framework and recent concepts and conditions in other Asian regions. The full paper is here.
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Pete

The K-15 (aka Sagarika or Shaurya) mini SLBM - Hypersonic Cruise Missile is gradually developing

Interesting about the stabilising (retro-rocket?) instrument at top of the K-15 during initial launch phase. I assume it keeps the K-15 upright and gets out of the flight path once detached?
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The Business Standard, February 17, 2010 reports:

Shaurya surfaces as India's underwater nuclear missile - The country’s top defence scientist has, for the first time, revealed that India’s new Shaurya missile, which can carry a one-tonne nuclear warhead over 750 kilometers, is specially designed to be fired from Indian submarines and could form the crucial third leg of India’s nuclear deterrent.

[India's first indigenously designed nuclear submarine, the Arihant, will be armed with 12 K-15s.]

If launched from a submarine off the China coast, it could hit several Chinese cities like Beijing, Nanjing and Shanghai.

Air and land-based nuclear weapons are delivered to their targets by fighter aircraft and ballistic missiles, respectively. Since these can be knocked out by an enemy first strike, the most reliable nuclear deterrent has traditionally been underwater, missiles hidden in a submarine.

V K Saraswat, the DRDO chief and Scientific Advisor to the Defence Minister, revealed to Business Standard at the ongoing Defexpo 2010, “We have designed the Shaurya so that it can be launched from under water as easily as from land. The gas-filled canister that houses the missile fits easily into a submarine. The underwater leg of the nuclear triad needs to be totally reliable and needs a state-of-the-art missile.”

India’s undersea deterrent had so far revolved around the K-15 ballistic missile, built with significant help from Russia [?]. The K-15 was to equip the INS Arihant, India’s lone nuclear-powered submarine, which is being constructed in Visakhapatnam. But now, after rigorous underwater testing, the Shaurya could be the mainstay of Arihant’s arsenal.

“The Shaurya was developed from ground up as a submarine-capable missile,” confirms Dr Prahlada, the top DRDO scientist responsible for liaising with the military. “Every piece of technology for fitting it in a submarine is already in place.”

Shortly before the Defexpo 2010, Dr Saraswat had publicly stated that India’s missile technology was ahead of China’s and Pakistan’s.

Now top DRDO scientists have revealed that the Shaurya is not a ballistic missile, as it has been thought to be; it is actually a hypersonic cruise missile, which never leaves the atmosphere.

A ballistic missile is like a stone being lobbed towards a target. Rockets toss it upwards and towards the target; after the rocket burns out, gravity pulls the missile warhead down towards the target. Buffeted by wind and re-entry forces, accuracy is a problem; and, since the ballistic missile’s path is predictable, shooting it down is relatively easy.

The Shaurya has none of these issues. Its solid-fuel, two-stage rocket accelerates the missile to six times the speed of sound before it reaches an altitude of 40 kilometers (125,000 feet), after which it levels out and cruises towards the target, powered by its onboard fuel.

While ballistic missiles cannot correct their course midway, the Shaurya is an intelligent missile. Onboard navigation computers kick in near the target, guiding the missile to the target and eliminating errors that inevitably creep in during its turbulent journey.

The Shaurya, say DRDO sources, will strike within 20-30 metres of its target after travelling 750 kilometres.

Conventional cruise missiles, like the American Tomahawk and the Indo-Russian Brahmos, offer similar accuracy. But their air-breathing engines carry them along slowly, rendering them vulnerable to enemy aircraft and missiles. The Shaurya’s solid-fuel, air-independent engine propels it along at hypersonic speeds, leaving enemy fighters and missiles far behind.

“I would say the Shaurya is a hybrid propulsion missile”, says Dr Saraswat. “Like a ballistic missile, it is powered by solid fuel. And, like a cruise missile, it can guide itself right up to the target.”

Making the Shaurya even more capable is its ability to manoeuvre, following a twisting path to the target that makes it very difficult to shoot it down. In contrast, a ballistic missile is predictable; its trajectory gives away its target and its path to it.

Background

The K-15 Shaurya/Sagarika could be described as a quasi ballistic missile as it has a low (atmospheric) trajectory and can perform maneuvers in flight or make unexpected changes in direction and range

Wiki explains - "The Shaurya missile is speculated to be the land version of the under-water Sagarika K-15 missile[6], although DRDO officials have reportedly denied its connection with the K-15 program[2] Similar to the BrahMos [in land, sea and air? launched mode], Shaurya is stored in a composite canister, which makes it much easier to store for long periods without maintenance as well as to handle and transport. It also houses the gas generator to eject the missile from the canister before its solid propellant motors take over to hurl it at the intended target.

Shaurya missiles can remain hidden or camouflaged in underground silos from enemy surveillance or satellites till they are fired from the special storage-cum-launch canisters. DRDO scientists admit that given Shaurya's limited range at present, either the silos will have to be constructed closer to India's borders or an extended range version will have to be developed. The Shaurya system will require some more tests before it becomes fully operational in two-three years. Moreover, defence scientists say the high-speed, two-stage Shaurya has high maneuverability which also makes it less vulnerable to existing anti-missile defence systems.[7] Shaurya can reach a velocity of Mach 6 even at low altitudes. On November 12, even before the missile crossed a distance of 300 km, it reached a velocity of Mach 5, heating up its surface to 700{+0} Celsius. The missile performed rolls to spread the heat uniformly on its surface. Its flight time is 500 seconds to 700 seconds. with its high-performance navigation and guidance systems, efficient propulsion systems, state-of-the-art control technologies and canisterised launch. It can be easily transported by road. The missile, encased in a canister, is mounted on a single vehicle, which has only a driver’s cabin, and the vehicle itself is the launch platform. This “single vehicle solution” reduces its signature – it cannot be easily detected by satellites – and makes its deployment easy.The gas generator, located at the bottom of the canister, fires for about a second and a half. It produces high pressure gas, which expands and ejects the missile from the tube. The missile has six motors; the first one is the motor in the gas generator.The centerpiece of a host of new technologies incorporated in Shourya is its ring laser gyroscope and accelerometer. The ring laser gyroscope was tested & integrated by the Research Center Imarat (RCI) based in Hyderabad.[8]

Shaurya missile was reviled to be designed specifically to be fired from Submarines. Top DRDO scientist has confirmed this and said that this missile is actually a Hypersonic cruse missile and not a ballistic missile, as it was earlier thought to be.
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Comment
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It seems odd that the DRDO and the Navy are re-announcing the K-15's nature and functions. It could be in place of continual testing milestones that would heighten public support. Still the new information is comprehensive and puts the K-15's capabilities in perspective.

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Pete

Russian-Indian PAK-FA (T-50) First Test Flight - PR Success

The PAK-FA or T-50 is the talk of the aviation world due to its (allegedly) "first" test flight yesterday. 

Unfortunately for modern Tsar/neo-Red Putin, compared to the US and even China, Russia has been unable to maintain financial or technical momentum on 5 Gen Jets.

India has been rightly wary of financing Russia's high risk PAK-FA:



But Airpower Australia (APA) has been reporting on the PAK-FA and has had this artist's rendering since March 2009 due to APA's close personal Russian contacts:




See rendering in Russia's PAK-FA versus the F-22 and F-35 (APA

NOTAM 30th March, 2009) which contains much comparative discussion
Reuters January 29, 2010 reports :


Click to blow-up greatly. From November 2009 issue of Russan-language Popular Mechanics.

New Russian stealth fighter makes first flight MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia test-flew a long-awaited new fighter aircraft on Friday (Jan 29, 2010), determined to challenge the United States for technical superiority in the skies and impress weapons buyers.

The "fifth-generation" stealth fighter -- Russia's first all-new warplane since the collapse of the Soviet Union plunged the defense industry into poverty and disarray -- flew for 47 minutes, planemaker Sukhoi said.

"It's a remarkable event," Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told his cabinet, but he suggested the plane still needed work. "There is very much to be done, in part as regards the engine," Putin said. "But the fact that the plane is already in the air is a big step forward."

...flight [was] at a Sukhoi factory in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, in Russia's Far East.

"The plane performed very well. All our expectations for this first flight were met," Sukhoi spokeswoman Olga Kayukova said on Rossiya 24 television. "The premiere was a success."

Foreign journalists were not invited.

Fifth-generation aircraft are invisible to radar, have advanced flight and weapons control systems and can cruise at supersonic speeds [F-35 only subsonic cruise!]. The new plane is Moscow's answer to the U.S.-built F-22 Raptor stealth fighter -- the world's only fifth-generation fighter yet in service -- which first flew in 1997.

Putin said the plane would first be delivered to the Defense Ministry in 2013 and serial production would start in 2015. Analysts have said it would probably be five to seven years before Russia's military gets to fly the new fighter.

Successful development of the fighter, which Rossiya 24 said has been tentatively dubbed the T-50, is crucial to showing Russia can challenge U.S. technology.

The 1991 Soviet collapse ushered in a cash-strapped time of troubles for Russia's military. Its aircraft makers have been building warplanes based on updated Soviet-era designs.

...The Interfax news agency quoted an unidentified source as saying the new Russian plane had lowered and raised its landing gear twice during the flight and added that "the American F-35 fifth-generation jet couldn't do that (on its test flight)."

Lieutenant Colonel Marcel de Haas, Russian security researcher at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael, was not convinced of the plane's bright future.

"My impression is that this new fighter plane is also more propaganda than a real expectancy," he told Reuters by e-mail.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov told the cabinet more work had to be done on the engine and the armaments system. Neither he nor Putin went into details.

In a statement on the company website sukhoi.org, Sukhoi director Mikhail Pogosyan said the company planned to develop its fifth-generation fighter program further with India, its biggest client for existing planes.

...Besides India and China, existing clients for Russia's weapons include U.S. foes such as Iran, Syria and Venezuela, and their purchase of an advanced new fighter could cause concern in the United States and its allies.

The U.S. Congress has banned export sales of the F-22. Full Article."

Comment

Unless Russia has engaged in productive espionage to steal F-22 and F-35 secrets it may be a decade before a very expensive PAK-FA, T-50 is rolling off the production lines. The cost of production and purchase, deadline slippage and complexity of the F-22 were vastly greater than expected.

Is it simplistic to say that Russia is doing the designing while India is paying most of the development cost (like the Nerpa)?

Pete

INS Arihant Launched July 26, 2009

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The most complete photo(?) image (above) of Arihant to date. Courtesy of India Today.
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The slide (above) depicts insides of the Arihant. It is from an Indian Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) powerpoint presentation reproduced by Indian NDTV and other media outlets.

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Though launched on July 26, 2009 the complete shape of Arihant still appears to be classified (based on the heavy restrictions on photos permitted).
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There has been much speculation over the last two years about the size and design of India's Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) nuclear sub program. Now the "launching" of the Arihant indicates that the weapons fit is as expected (K-15 then Agni III (K-4)). Early reports were of a Russian Charlie sized ATV 4 - 5,000+ tons. Puzzling and perhaps a pointer to the smaller vessel (for 3 vessels at least) was the 80 MW reactor reported all along. As it turns out India is planning to buld three Arihant Class then two larger SSBNs (carrying 12 Agni IIIs?) perhaps of the Akula II size?. So all in all I suspect our theories were mostly right ;)
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India's first locally built nuclear submarine (Arihant is Sanskrit for "Slayer of Enemies") was launched on July 26, 2009 at the Naval Dockyard at Visakhapatnam on India's east coast. The hull is complete. The boat is floating. The reactor will be started soon - Indian sources report. The Indian Navy is being rather cautious with their new boat. One report claims the Navy didn't want a media launch but were overruled by the Prime Minister's Office since the PM was under attack for perceived concessions to Pakistan and needed to burnish his national security credentials.
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The media were not allowed to take photos and they only saw Arihant after it was floated (thus hiding a good portion of the hull (sonar, prop ?) under water. Arihant is being built in a semi enclosed dock to keep it out of view of overhead satellites.
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The submarine is 110 meter long with an eventual crew of 70-100 men. For its first 3 years of trials 10-20 technicians (mainly Indians but some Russians) are likely to be onboard.
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Once designated the ATV, INS Arihant is the lead vessel of the class. The second and third submarines of the Arihant Class are due to be launched in 2010 and 2011. The three submarines of the class may be in commission with the Indian Navy by 2015-18.
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Development
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The ATV project started with the intent to design nuclear-powered fast attack submarines (SSNs). As nuclear armed nations placed greater reliance on the sea leg (SSBNs) of the nuclear triad and less on the more vulnerable air (bombers) and land legs (fixed silos and mobile launchers) India altered the course of the project towards producing SSBNs.
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The Plutonium Recyling Project (PRP) at the Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR) Kalpakkam was a cover name behind which BARC, a facility of the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE), built India’s first indigenous submarine Pressurised Water Reactor (PWR). This submarine reactor is in the so called "half boat" hull DAE built for testing prior to building the actual submarine (the Arihant) with an identical reactor. Both the land-test and reactor fitted in Arihant generate around 80 MW, powered by 40% enriched uranium. The relatively low HEU of 40% suggests regular refueling (every 10 years?) might be necessary. The Rare Materials Project (RMP) at Ratnahalli near Mysore, another DAE facility, produced the enriched uranium.
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The initial version of the land-test reactor ran into technical obstacles and delay after which Russian help was sought to resolve the design glitches during the early 2000s. Significantly Indian Prime Minister Singh at the July 26, 2009, launch thanked “our Russian friends for their consistent and invaluable cooperation, which symbolises the close strategic partnership that we enjoy with Russia”.
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The hulls for this class are built by L&T's Hazira shipbuilding facility in the state of Gujarat, northwestern India. . Tata Power built the control systems for the submarine. The systems for the steam turbine integrated with the PWR are supplied by Walchandnagar Industries.
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Future Weapons Fit
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The Arihant class may possibly be first armed with the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile but more likely it will have 4 tubes, each holding 3 x K-15 "Sagarika" SLBMs, see LAUNCHING PLATFORMS FOR PROJECT K-15 - so the Arihant may first field 12 K-15s. Then eventually one "K-X" SLBM per tube. The K-X is a version under development of the Agni-III IRBM. (hereinafter called the naval Agni III) - so four naval Agni IIIs per Arihant sub.
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The K-15s will be fired from under water. After the cold launch phase a booster will kick with one or more stages raising it to a 20 km altitude followed by a parabolic path to a target up to 750km distant. The K-15 missiles, developed by the DRDO, are already under production. The DRDO has test-fired them several times from submerged pontoons off the coast of Visakhapatnam. They can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. They are 10.4 metres tall and weigh 6.3 tonnes each. Their warheads weigh about a 1,000 kg.

The 750 km range K-15 is an interim weapon (vastly shorter range, less throw weight than the Chinese SLBM JL-2) on the way to the naval Agni III). It is the naval Agni III which may be equivalent to the JL-2 but an Arihant will only have 4 naval Agni IIIs.

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This unique ability of a nuclear submarine to completely conceal itself underwater for up to 6 months will make it the most potent leg in in the nuclear triad. This is especially important given India's declared (though to date theoretical) no-first-use nuclear doctrine (which apparently does not apply to Pakistan). The nuclear submarine will provide a lethal second-strike capability to retaliate against a conceivable first preemptive strike by an enemy (mainly China).
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The Arihant class hull features twin flank-array sonars and Rafael broadband expendable anti-torpedo countermeasures.
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After launching of the 3 Arihant Class subs Indian planners envisage development of two SSBN size submarines - probably of similar size (12,000 ton) and design to the Akula II that India is due to lease from Russia early next year.
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Why has Arihant been officially unveiled now, in such an incomplete condition? Perhaps due to:

- national pride

- the Navy had to show it was getting somewhere. The need of the Indian Navy and weapons development organisations to show the public and politicians where the huge amount of development money, man hours and other resources have gone. Although the submarines were first envisaged in the 1970s ongoing problems, mainly with the reactor, have lead to delays.

- the Indian PM was under attack for perceived concessions to Pakistan and needed to burnish his national security credentials.

- a means of indicating great power status. Only the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (P5) have been able (or permitted) to develop and build nuclear submarines - that is the United States, RussiaFranceBritainChina. India has now forced its way into the nuclear sub owning club on the way to its broader campaign of achieving (P6) membership.

- the India-U.S. nuclear deal represents de facto recognition of India’s nuclear weapons program. This makes the unveiling at this time of a nuclear submarine that will be nuclear armed less politically sensitive.

- probably the most important reason to unveil now is to give the appearance of keeping up with China - to a limited extent. Arihant is a clear sign that India is looking to meet the future regional naval threat from China. The Chinese fleet of 62 submarines, with at least 10 of them nuclear-powered, is on the way to fielding the new JL-2 SLBM.
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The Chinese JL-2 missile has a strike range of over 7,200 km. When fired by Jin SSBNs from protected Chinese waters (the Jins need protection from highly active US anti-submarine forces) a JL-2 is capable of reaching India and Australia (including Perth and Brisbane). The required range would be 12,000 km to hit the continental US from Chinese protected waters around the SSBN base at Sanya, on Hainan Island, China.
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Some Extra Points
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It seems the DAE ran a facility called "Plutonium Recycling Project" that had nothing to do with Plutonium or recycling. With the Arihant launch, they threw open the doors of a facility restricted even to other DAE scientists and let the media take photos. They toured the "half boat" reactor and interviewed Anil Kakodar who stated they were able to build reactors to power future aircraft carriers if the Indian government so requested.
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The sub design is interesting. Nothing like the Charlie class. In the early 90s, India built two German HDW209 subs at Mazagon docks in Bombay and studied plans for the Project 75 Scorpenes. I think they learned quite a lot from those western boats. There is also a Russian Kilo that has been undergoing mid life refit for half a decade just meters away from the facility where the ATV was assembled. It has been literally cut open. Some speculate that the delay in refit was actually for training ATV-Arihant workmen.
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The limber slots and sail mounted planes don't look anything like the Akula (of the coming Nerpa/Chakra). Yet the Russian Ambassador to India stated in an interview that the ATV is based on the Akula:
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A high percentage of Indian arms equipment still has a high Russian content - with Arihant benefitting from Indian access to Western sub technology and those 140 Russian consultants.
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There is still the Agni SLBM version to be produced and the matter of its range. Given that India has been producing large diameter solid rockets (for its civilian space programme) for a lot longer than China, we may see this missile gap also close.
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Charting the development of the Arihant Class, particularly its reactor(s) and armament, is an ongoing process. More posts will follow.
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Pete

Long Range Japanese ("peaceful") Missiles Continued

1st Published Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Japan ICBM capable M-5 launched into space.

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UPI's Martin Sieff reported November 5, 2008 that:

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WASHINGTON, Nov. 5 (UPI) -- The Japanese government is slowly moving towards a decision to launch its own early warning ballistic missile defense satellite, the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported Wednesday [Nov 5, 2008].

The Tokyo newspaper said it had received access to a draft plan for ballistic missile defense drawn up by the secretariat of the Japanese government's headquarters for space development strategy. The report calls for an assessment on the value of deploying an early warning satellite that could monitor any potentially hostile missile launch.

In addition, the draft plan recommends carrying out a feasibility study on launching more civilian comsats -- communications satellites.

The plan also suggests Japan should start building smaller short-range and medium-range missiles for its Defense Forces, in addition to the bigger H-2A missiles currently in use.

The Yomiuri Shimbun said this language may be an indirect way of pushing through approval to build the GX missile that has become a matter of some controversy. Old-fashioned bureaucrats who are opposed to Prime Minister.

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Taro Aso's drive to develop a military space capability for Japan have opposed the GX project, and they managed to get the Space Activities Commission of the nation's Education Ministry, a stronghold for the old, cautious, pure research, non-military tradition in Japanese official space policymaking, to take a position opposing GX development.
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"While many question the need to go ahead with the GX development project, (this plan) is -tantamount to approving it," one official told the newspaper.
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However, the draft plan looks set to be smoothly approved and then implemented as national policy within the national budget for Fiscal Year 2009. The Yomiuri Shimbun said that at a meeting of the space development strategy secretariat Tuesday, it sent the draft plan on to be finally agreed upon at a second meeting to be held Nov. 27."

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Comment

H2

This rocket has no direct military missile value given its weight (445 tons) and with its strap-on booster configuration. However launches of this rocket give Japan ongoing experience in the use of the small and medium sized solid fuel boosters - handy for future development of missiles smaller missiles than the M-5. Wiki suggests "The H-IIA (H2A [or H-2A]) is a family of liquid-fuelled rockets providing an expendable launch system for the purpose of launching satellites into geostationary orbit."

It is manufactured by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) for the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA. Launches occur at the Tanegashima Space Center. "

The H-2A has been launched 14 times since 2001 - only one failure - last launch February 23, 2008. Its maximum payload to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is 15 tons and to Geo Stationary Orbit 6 tons.

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M-5

A rocket ideal for conversion to an ICBM is Japan's variously called M-V, M5, M-5 or Mu-5,

At 30.8m high, 2.5m diameter and up to 139 tons it is clearly too big for ICBM duty however those specs are for 3 or 4 stages. Just two stages of a (say) 2m diameter scale down may be sufficient to hit Japan's most immediate enemies North Korea and China.

When one looks at Japan's experience, since 1966 in building the Mu range of booster rockets (with 7 smaller rockets before the M-5) Japan's ability to build manageable IRBMs and ICBMs is obvious.

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It may be coincidental or intentional that Japan progressed from "strap-on" boosters (associated with peaceful use) in the earlier Mu series (Wiki description) to an ICBM like configuration for the M-5.

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The GX will move further in the direction of a space rocket as it is projected to weigh 210 tons and has a liquid fuel upper stage.

More on Japan's very short term nuclear weapons potential Japan's Potential ICBMs & Hoarding More Plutonium of April 29, 2008.

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Shorter Range Missiles

Only old figures jump out about shorter range Japanese missiles. The Japanese don't want to appear offensive, appaer to stress reliance on more powerful US forces and don't wish to be seen as competing with the US' near monopoly in missile production and sales.

MHI produces various anti-ship missiles including Type-88 Surface-to-Ship Missile (SSM) and Type-90 SSM for the Japanese military

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Specifications 1988 - Type 88 SSM1990 and Type 90 (SSM-1B), 5.1m long, 660 kg, Turbojet,

Maximum effective range - Type 88 SSM 180 km , - Type 90 (SSM-1B) 150 km
Inertial guidance + active radar homing
Deployment - Type 88 SSM = 320 (?), Type 90 (SSM-1B) = About 40 as of 1994.

MHI also licence builds the US Patriot missile (see MHI site)


Pete

Japan's Potential ICBMs & Hoarding More Plutonium

The Japanese M5 rocket on launch. Capable of being modified into an ICBM

From Australia Fairfax news stable comes this article in April 26, 2008:

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"Between the Pacific Ocean coastline and the rich farmland of Rokkasho, in northern Japan, stands a vast and controversial monument to man's triumph over nature.

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The 12.7 trillion yen Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant, which can recycle up to 800 tonnes of nuclear waste a year for reuse, will launch the pacifist nation into a new era of nuclear power when it commences operations in July.

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Trade Minister Akira Amari has hailed it as "the future" of sustainable energy for Japan, which has virtually no natural resources and takes a third of its energy from 55 nuclear power plants.

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...Unlike Japan's conventional nuclear power plants, the Rokkasho complex will not burn nuclear fuel. Instead, it will recycle it by taking spent fuel from conventional plants and separating out usable elements such as uranium and plutonium from waste. Japan Nuclear Fuel aims to produce as many as four tonnes of recycled plutonium - roughly equal to 500 of the bombs dropped on Nagasaki - for reuse each year.

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Protestors say that because Japan, which has a "no surplus plutonium" policy, has yet to repatriate and use 37 tonnes of plutonium that it sent for recycling at European plants in the 1990s, the facility at Rokkasho is at best a spectacular waste of money and at worst a dubious exercise in building plutonium supplies. As it is, the mechanism needed to convert the plutonium into reusable pellet form will not be ready until 2012."

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Comments

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Japan's nuclear capabilities are a future concern for Australia and Japan having access to greater amounts of plutonium are a more immediate worry.

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Japan already has a quick nuclear "breakout" capacity in the form of more than 7 tonnes of Plutonium (the nuclear explosive of choice). Japan also has the capability to build ICBM from the existing M5 rocket.

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Japan's currently pacifist constitution has not stopped it from building one of the strongest navies and airforces in the region. The Japanese also suffers the potential threat of North Korea which may eventually a short IRBM flight away. US protection may not be forever so Japan is quietly leaving its own nuclear weapon options open. This may be one reason Japan appears to be willing to wear the environmental risks of operating the Rokkasho plant.
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Pete