Japan's Epsilon Rocket, An ICBM in Waiting

A 3 stage Japanese Epsilon research rocket (potentially an ICBM) being launched from Uchinoura Space Center in southern Japan.

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Specifications for the Epsilon include: Height 24.4m, Diameter 2.5m, Mass 91 tons, 3 or 4 stages. Its shape, with no strap-on boosters, is ideal for silo, rail or truck launch. Reduced to 2 stages it might provide the basis for an SLBM.

Modern ballistic missiles generally have solid fuel stages (for quicker preparation and more rugged handling) rather than liquid. So it is more than a coincidence that the first, second and third stages of the Epsilon are solid fuel.

The Epsilon's specifications are very similar to the fully developed (but then cancelled) US MX missile ICBM. For comparison the MX's specs are Height 22m, Diameter 2.3m, Weight 97 tons, 3 stages, blast yield 3 Mt total (using up to 10 MIRVs).

The extent to which the US assisted JAXA's Epsilon Project is unclear. Japan Aerospace eXploration Agency (JAXA) is Japan’s NASA equivalent. Space agencies have dual military-civilian use technology and dual-use career personnel. JAXA, and of course NASA, are dual-use - although space agencies rarely admit this. 

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More see Doug Tsuruoka, "Can Japan's Epsilon rocket be used as an ICBM?" Asia Times, on January 23, 2018, at https://asiatimes.com/2018/01/can-japans-epsilon-rocket-used-icbm/ which answers in the affirmative.

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's (JAXA) solid-fueled Epsilon rocket launched seven different satellites into orbit from Uchinoura Space Center on January 17, 2018.

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These armament plans have raised regional concerns that Tokyo may be shedding its post-World War II pacifist defense posture.

"What is worrisomely ... is that Japan's rearmament would be met with China's reaction, which could cause regional instability," Korea National Defense University Japan researcher Park Young-june said.

The United States, however, is seen as supportive of Japan taking on a more assertive regional role, as it could be useful in meeting the challenge of China's growing military might."

Background

In existing literature the focus for an ICBM in waiting has been on Japan's M-V (also known as the Mu-5 and M-5) rocket. But the M-V was too large to be a viable ICBM and used liquid fuel, less useful for an ICBM than the Epsilon's sold fuel. The M-V was effectively replaced by the Epsilon in 2007.

Further information on the Epsilon rocket is at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epsilon_(rocket):

The Epsilon was officially developed to reduce satellite and space research launch costs, primarily by using the solid rocket booster of the H-IIA as the Epsilon's first stage. Existing M-V upper stages will be used for the second and third stages. Another primary aim is to achieve much shorter launch preparation time - which is usually seen as an ideal attribute of an ICBM.

Japan has more than enough nuclear explosive Plutonium and HEU for a nuclear capability - see http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/japan-and-chinas-dispute-goes-nuclear/.

Pete

Long Range Japanese ("peaceful") Missiles Continued

1st Published Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Japan ICBM capable M-5 launched into space.

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UPI's Martin Sieff reported November 5, 2008 that:

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WASHINGTON, Nov. 5 (UPI) -- The Japanese government is slowly moving towards a decision to launch its own early warning ballistic missile defense satellite, the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported Wednesday [Nov 5, 2008].

The Tokyo newspaper said it had received access to a draft plan for ballistic missile defense drawn up by the secretariat of the Japanese government's headquarters for space development strategy. The report calls for an assessment on the value of deploying an early warning satellite that could monitor any potentially hostile missile launch.

In addition, the draft plan recommends carrying out a feasibility study on launching more civilian comsats -- communications satellites.

The plan also suggests Japan should start building smaller short-range and medium-range missiles for its Defense Forces, in addition to the bigger H-2A missiles currently in use.

The Yomiuri Shimbun said this language may be an indirect way of pushing through approval to build the GX missile that has become a matter of some controversy. Old-fashioned bureaucrats who are opposed to Prime Minister.

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Taro Aso's drive to develop a military space capability for Japan have opposed the GX project, and they managed to get the Space Activities Commission of the nation's Education Ministry, a stronghold for the old, cautious, pure research, non-military tradition in Japanese official space policymaking, to take a position opposing GX development.
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"While many question the need to go ahead with the GX development project, (this plan) is -tantamount to approving it," one official told the newspaper.
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However, the draft plan looks set to be smoothly approved and then implemented as national policy within the national budget for Fiscal Year 2009. The Yomiuri Shimbun said that at a meeting of the space development strategy secretariat Tuesday, it sent the draft plan on to be finally agreed upon at a second meeting to be held Nov. 27."

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Comment

H2

This rocket has no direct military missile value given its weight (445 tons) and with its strap-on booster configuration. However launches of this rocket give Japan ongoing experience in the use of the small and medium sized solid fuel boosters - handy for future development of missiles smaller missiles than the M-5. Wiki suggests "The H-IIA (H2A [or H-2A]) is a family of liquid-fuelled rockets providing an expendable launch system for the purpose of launching satellites into geostationary orbit."

It is manufactured by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) for the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, or JAXA. Launches occur at the Tanegashima Space Center. "

The H-2A has been launched 14 times since 2001 - only one failure - last launch February 23, 2008. Its maximum payload to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is 15 tons and to Geo Stationary Orbit 6 tons.

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M-5

A rocket ideal for conversion to an ICBM is Japan's variously called M-V, M5, M-5 or Mu-5,

At 30.8m high, 2.5m diameter and up to 139 tons it is clearly too big for ICBM duty however those specs are for 3 or 4 stages. Just two stages of a (say) 2m diameter scale down may be sufficient to hit Japan's most immediate enemies North Korea and China.

When one looks at Japan's experience, since 1966 in building the Mu range of booster rockets (with 7 smaller rockets before the M-5) Japan's ability to build manageable IRBMs and ICBMs is obvious.

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It may be coincidental or intentional that Japan progressed from "strap-on" boosters (associated with peaceful use) in the earlier Mu series (Wiki description) to an ICBM like configuration for the M-5.

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The GX will move further in the direction of a space rocket as it is projected to weigh 210 tons and has a liquid fuel upper stage.

More on Japan's very short term nuclear weapons potential Japan's Potential ICBMs & Hoarding More Plutonium of April 29, 2008.

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Shorter Range Missiles

Only old figures jump out about shorter range Japanese missiles. The Japanese don't want to appear offensive, appaer to stress reliance on more powerful US forces and don't wish to be seen as competing with the US' near monopoly in missile production and sales.

MHI produces various anti-ship missiles including Type-88 Surface-to-Ship Missile (SSM) and Type-90 SSM for the Japanese military

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Specifications 1988 - Type 88 SSM1990 and Type 90 (SSM-1B), 5.1m long, 660 kg, Turbojet,

Maximum effective range - Type 88 SSM 180 km , - Type 90 (SSM-1B) 150 km
Inertial guidance + active radar homing
Deployment - Type 88 SSM = 320 (?), Type 90 (SSM-1B) = About 40 as of 1994.

MHI also licence builds the US Patriot missile (see MHI site)


Pete