December 31, 2025

Truth or Fiction? Russian Submarine Reactors Sunk

From AI report possibly originating from the US and South Korean governments eg: see WON Sunwoo at South Korean news site CHOSUN ILBO of December 31, 2025 at https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/russian-ship-sunk-transporting-nuclear-submarine-reactor-to-north-korea/ar-AA1Ti97k?cvid=6953fedfa898469392b7bba19ac42889&ocid=hpmsn .

“The Ursa Major was a Russian cargo ship that sank in December 2024 while allegedly transporting nuclear reactor components intended for North Korea.

Background

The Ursa Major was a heavy-lift cargo ship that operated from 2009 until its sinking in December 2024. Originally built in Germany, it underwent several name changes before being registered as Ursa Major in 2021. The ship was managed by the Russian state corporation Oboronlogistika and was known for carrying large and heavy cargoes, including cranes and other equipment.

Sinking Incident

On December 23, 2024, the Ursa Major sank approximately 60 nautical miles off the coast of Cartagena, Spain, after a series of explosions ruptured its hull. Spanish authorities initially responded to a distress signal from the ship, which was reported to be listing heavily and losing propulsion. Fourteen of the sixteen crew members were rescued, but two were reported missing.

Cargo and Investigations

Investigations revealed that the Ursa Major was not carrying the declared cargo of empty containers and cranes. Instead, it was found to be transporting two VM-4SG nuclear submarine reactor [casings - each weighing 65 tons ], [see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VM_reactor and https://www.bing.com/search?q=VM-4SG+reactor&PC=U316&FORM=CHROMN ]  which are critical components for nuclear-powered submarines. These reactor casings were believed to be intended for North Korea, potentially aiding its nuclear submarine program. The ship's unusual route from St. Petersburg to Vladivostok, passing through the Mediterranean, raised suspicions about its true destination, which was likely the North Korean port of Rason.

Circumstances of the Sinking

The sinking of the Ursa Major has been described as potentially resulting from an external attack, with evidence suggesting that the hull was damaged by an external explosion rather than an internal failure. The nature of the damage indicated a possible strike from a supercavitating torpedo [Pete Comment: Or a conventional torpedo or sabotage?] or an underwater drone, although the exact cause remains under investigation. Following the incident, a Russian naval ship arrived at the scene, demanding that Spanish vessels withdraw, which further complicated the situation.

Conclusion

The Ursa Major's sinking has significant geopolitical implications, particularly concerning the relationship between Russia and North Korea, as well as the ongoing tensions in international waters. The incident highlights the complexities of maritime security and the clandestine transport of military technology.”

[Much from WON Sunwoo at South Korean news site CHOSUN ILBO (here https://www.chosun.com/english/  and here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Chosun_Ilbo  ) December 31, 2025 Title “Russian ship sunk transporting nuclear submarine reactor to North Korea” at https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/russian-ship-sunk-transporting-nuclear-submarine-reactor-to-north-korea/ar-AA1Ti97k?cvid=6953fedfa898469392b7bba19ac42889&ocid=hpmsn  “Analysis suggests this aligns with evidence that North Korea is receiving Russian nuclear technology in exchange for deploying troops to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine… The sinking coincided with confirmed reports of over 10,000 North Korean troops being deployed to support Russian forces in Ukraine.” ]

December 28, 2025

New Women Bosses, High Turnover in "Bondi Agencies"

The appointment of women as heads of security and intelligence agencies has been occurring only recently in Australia.

This began in February 2023 with Kerri Hartland being appointed Director-General of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS) covering foreign intelligence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Secret_Intelligence_Service

Then in September 2024 with Abigail Bradshaw as Director-General of the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) covering signals intelligence and cybersecurity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Signals_Directorate

Then October 2025 with Krissy Barrett as Commissioner of the Australian Federal Police (AFPhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Federal_Police

and lastly the early? December 2025 commencement of Kathy Klugman, in the most senior analysis and coordinating position, Director-General, Australian Office of National Intelligence (ONIhttps://www.oni.gov.au/leadership-team

Australia has subsequently suffered its worst intelligence failure with the killing by Islamist extremists of 15 Jewish people at Bondi Beach Sydney on December 14, 2025. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Bondi_Beach_shooting 

Any misplaced gender connection can be discounted, as Mr Mike Burgess has held  the Director-General, Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) position since September 2019. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Burgess_(intelligence_chief)

Having 3 new bosses in 16 months (Sep 24, Oct 25 and Dec 25) may equal organisational and inter-organisational disruption, especially if male deputies, unwilling to accept the rapid influx of women, decide to quit. We'll never know, because these are largely secret organisations. Maybe Albanese might permit a less than a year inquiry. Ms Klugman might be well placed to talk to many senior security leaders and to Jewish leaders.

December 24, 2025

Trump-class Battleship?

This is all over the news, so I’m not going to repeat the well researched article from theWarZone.com regarding Donald Trump’s announcement of two 30-40,000 ton warships, which won’t begin construction until the early 2030s.  

Trump appears unaware that he is reprising the failed Zumwalt-class destroyer concept - so expensive, long in development and poorly armed that only 3 were built.

image: USN, via twz.com
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More information will come to light as this program expands, but the new BBG(X) project will replace the current DDG(X) program, which replaced the CG(X) project that ran from 2001 to 2020. The US Navy has been trying to procure a major surface combatant class to replace the retiring Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruisers for 25 years, none of which have come to fruition, while the Flight III Arleigh Burke destroyers are new boats built on a maxed-out, forty-year-old hull design. 

While the USN does not need two gold-plated battleships in the 2030s that will be too expensive to operate and too politically glamorous to get in harms way, like the Russian Kirov-class showboats missile cruisers, the USN does need a major surface combatant with a high VLS capacity, and integrated command systems for fleet operations, to act as the core node of a surface task group escorting a carrier or amphibious group, and the Trump-class, which is a multi-billion dollar vanity project by a president who’s ego is bigger than the Death Star, may eventually emerge as a sensible 20,000+ ton surface combatants in the USN.



On December 27, 2025, here 6:48 in and above, Retired Navy Commander Bobby Jones very clearly states why Trump's Zumwalt 2.0 vanity project will not work.
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Update 29 December 2025

Military YouTuber @PerunAU has produced a comprehensive video on the Trump-class BBG(X) that is worth a view, and noticed that the announced dimensions are almost exactly the same as an Iowa-class battleship.


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December 22, 2025

TKMS-Canadian Marmen Collaboration: Has Type 212CD Won the CPSP?

Does the TKMS-Canadian Marmen Collaboration Mean the Type 212CD has won the Canadian future submarine competition?

See Fatima Bahtić's NavalToday article TKMS teams up with Canadian manufacturer on Type 212CD submarine segments of December 19, 2025 at https://www.navaltoday.com/2025/12/19/tkms-teams-up-with-canadian-manufacturer-on-type-212cd-submarine-segments/

Pete Comment

I think only if South Korea's Hanwha Ocean has been eliminated from Canada's future submarine competition (CPSP) could a Canadian company be permitted by TKMS to have knowledge of highly confidential TKMS submarine design details and manufacturing processes. 

Also TKMS may be benefitting from the "NATO First" policy (eg. described in the UK) shift that may have benefitted Sweden's SAAB in winning the Polish submarine competition against (non-NATO country) South Korea's Hanwha Ocean.

December 21, 2025

Merry Christmas and a Peaceful 2026




Happy Xmas (War Is Over) sung with feeling by Canada's Sarah McLachlan.

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Genuine plastic Christmas Song: Holiday Barbie.

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More dignified a Celtic Trio and Choir from Ireland's Affinity Archive..
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December 16, 2025

Historic Marichka? UUV attack on Novorossiysk Kilo sub

Hi all,

Pete is doing fine, but Australia is mourning over the mass shooting, at Bondi Beach, on the weekend, with many security issues.

There was one incident, however, that I have to report on - the Ukrainian claim to have used a Sea Baby underwater drone to attack a Russian Kilo submarine in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk on 15 December. 

image: Kyiv Independent
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If true, this is an historic occasion - the first military use of an underwater drone against a hard target in a conflict. 

I believe that H.I. Sutton’s hot take video is the best analysis currently available:



Now, there are a few points I have to make:

1. The Security Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) released this video, which means that it has access to the security cameras monitoring at Russia's 'secure' naval base in  Novorossiysk, like it had access to the security camera network monitoring the Kerch Bridge in the June 2025 attack that damaged its foundations. 

2. There is not yet any confirmation on which specific Kilo submarine was attacked, but the submarine Rostov-on-Don was destroyed in Sevastopol in 2024, which leaves the Black Sea Fleet with two operational Kilo submarines, which are used to launch Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukrainian apartment buildings and infrastructure

There's also an unsubstantiated theory that a puff of white smoke, ten seconds after the primary charge, indicates a limpet mine detonation on a second Kilo in this video. 


The Marichka (Ukrainian for Mary) UUV. Photo courtesy Ukraine's weapons' research and development agency AMMO via Joseph Trevithick at TWZ September 25, 2023
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3. The term ‘underwater Sea Baby’ is vague. It may point to the Ukrainian Marichka UUV, first identified in 2023 (see photo above and Youtube video below). Ukraine did ‘show’ the Marichka drone in 2023, but this could be a cover story. The size of this detonation, under the submarine, indicates a substantial explosive charge, very similar to the one that damaged the Kerch Bridge in July, which Ukraine claimed was a mine planted by agents. Was this attack by a UUV or naval divers? The SBU aren't saying.


Animation of Ukrainian Marichka UUVs courtesy Ukraine's weapons' research and development agency AMMO here and the Youtube here (voiceover in Ukrainian, but a picture tells a thousand words).
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The Black Sea Kilos are an enigma, as they are only used to fire cruise missiles at Ukraine, and have spent the majority of this 'three-day conflict' staying in their supposedly secure docks, first at Sevastopol, then fleeing to Novorossiysk in October 2023.

As claimed 'modern' combatants, their employment has been meek and cowardly. A more aggressive strategy would have them out on patrol picket to spot Ukrainian USV swarms deep in the Black Sea, or to send special forces against the Odessa coastline, or conduct an anti-shipping campaign. 

Addendum 17 December 2025

The WarZone has published an article based on recent satellite images of Novorossiysk, which show that Russia has moved three of the Kilo submarines, while the targetted Kilo remains at its pier-side. The images also show significant damage to the pier, about 20 metres away from the submarine, so it could have sustained damage to its propulsion system from the pressure wave of the blast. 

December 11, 2025

Colby AUKUS Review: Australian Undertakings

As I predicted on June 12, 2025 the overt public "results” of Elbridge Colby’s AUKUS Submarine Review are so ambiguous as to be non-existent. The America First transactional approach has been maintained.

Hegseth, Rubio, Marles and Wong, who met last week to discuss the issue, waited until the end of year to avoid Australian public scrutiny. The "results" were apparently “full steam ahead” from all four pollies. 

My moles advise that the hidden results of the AUKUS Submarine Review are chiefly, Australia resolves:

  • to gift the US A$2.5 Billion per year from 2026 until the 2040s, ie. until Australia has acquired 3 Virginia SSNs. The purchase price per Virginia, spares and training, etc, are extra, and
  • to adhere to US strategic directions and chain of command regarding the tasking of US Virginias delivered to Australia.

The fact that Australia’s part-time Defence Minister, Richard Marles, chooses to keep the AUKUS Submarine Review secret speaks volumes. Clearly Marles’ act hides his embarrassment.

However, as a special service to readers, I draw attention to my article 3rd Priority AUKUS Virginias for Australia: Columbias Top Priority... of December 2, 2025 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/12/3rd-priority-aukus-virginias-for.htmlWhich explains:

"In Australia many Australian civilian and naval interests are relying on AUKUS Pillar 1 submarine program keeping to the US deliver a Second-Hand Virginia to Australia by 2032 schedule.

However, it is more likely the first Virginia for Australia will be in 2046 due to the calculations below on the delayed, higher priority, Columbia-class SSBN program which shares supply chains, shipyards and work forces with the third priority Virginia program."

So the Australian Submarine Agency is worried by the prospect of a multi-$Billion Virginia non-delivery embarrassment to become apparent in the early 2030s. Marles, the very model of a modern major politician, will have moved from his part-time defence responsibility to higher, better paid pastures.

December 9, 2025

Submarine Mental Health Nurse in UK Royal Navy

Greig Watson in Nottingham for the BBC on December 7, 2025 reported, at https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn981qn7pnyo.amp :

"Submarine mental health nurse is 'Woman of Year'"


Leading naval nurse Abigail Wright said periods of isolation presented unique mental health challenges.

A service woman who is the sole dedicated mental health nurse assigned to the Submarine Service has been named "Woman of the Year".

Leading naval nurse Abigail Wright, 33, from Nottingham, said one of her main challenges is to help crews deal with repeated changes of location and colleagues, as well as being isolated from friends and family for months. [SSNs may patrol for 3 months. Then SSBNs for even longer - being out of contact for most of that time.]

She also organised the first International Women's Day at Faslane, the Scottish submarine headquarters where she is based.

Ms Wright has now been named "Woman of the Year" at the 2025 Women in Defence Awards for her work.

Ms Wright, a trained mental health nurse, joined the Navy in September 2020 where she worked at hospitals in Portsmouth, supported Royal Marines training in Norway, and then went to Faslane.

Working with the 5,000 members of the Submarine Service, Ms Wright has undergone specialist training to allow her to go on shorter trips with the vessels, to better to understand crews' experience.

She said she helped crews deal with "adjustment reaction" which was seen widely in the military.

"We are constantly adjusting, whether that be changing where we work, where we live, the people around us.

"But particularly with submarines; you are under the water, there is no daylight, your fresh food runs out pretty quickly.

"There's little contact with home, just one-way transmissions called familygrams which are just as long as a tweet, for 100, maybe 200 days," Ms Wright said.

Ms Wright was - remotely - presented with her award by Rear Admiral Jude Terry

And when boats return, Ms Wright has ensured submariners receive the support needed to reintegrate into everyday life.

She has also worked to make the role of women - who make up only 10% of the Royal Navy and 6% of the Submarine Service - as productive as possible.

"A lot of my work in Faslane, in my spare time, was to improve the experience of women.

"It's so important as we face challenges that perhaps men don't.

"It's important we continue to push those policies and changes to make it as comfortable as possible for women otherwise the recruitment and retention won't improve," she said.

Ms Wright said she was on "cloud nine" after being told about her award - a ceremony she had to attend remotely as she was on HMS Prince of Wales.

"One of my friends who was with me caught my reaction on video and it is pure shock.

"Rear Admiral Jude Terry was the first [RN] woman to reach that rank, so it was extra special to get it from her," she said.

[The RN further reports https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news/2025/november/26/20251126-woman-of-the-year : Abigail Wright holds a degree in Psychology and Masters in Nursing. Abigail has been assigned to the medical team on HMS Prince of Wales since August 2025. In 2026 she'll be promoted to Petty Officer and will move to Plymouth to use her expertise working in the Department for Community Mental Health.]

December 2, 2025

3rd Priority AUKUS Virginias for Australia: Columbias Top Priority: Ford Carriers 2nd Priority

In Australia many Australian civilian and naval interests are relying on AUKUS Pillar 1 submarine program keeping to the US deliver a Second-Hand Virginia to Australia by 2032 schedule.

However, it is more likely the first Virginia for Australia will be in 2046 due to the calculations below on the delayed, higher priority, Columbia-class SSBN program which shares supply chains, shipyards and work forces with the third priority Virginia program.

The production of 1.1 “standard” Virginias per year is likely to reduce to 0.8 Block Vs per year (ie. one every 15 months) starting with the Block V USS Oklahoma's expected commissioning in 2030-31 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class .

There is also competition from the second prioritydelayed - Ford-class carrier construction program at HII's submarine/shipyard complex in thee state of Virginia

The measuring stick of "deliveries" of Columbias doesn't mean actual commissioning of Columbias. First of class (Columbia) may experience 3 years of pre-commissioning tests (and bug fixing) after delivery to the USN.

In early 2025 USN Rear Adm. Todd Weeks, Program Executive Officer for Strategic Submarines advised the 12 Columbia class delivery or commissioning(?) is to be:

USS Columbia (SSBN-826) in 2029

USS Wisconsin (SSBN-827) in 2032

USS Groton (SSBN-828) in 2034

From USS Grotton Columbia-class delivery will optimistically be one SSBN per year, hence 
SSBN-829 in 2035.

The one SSBN per year drumbeat will mean 
less than one standard Virginia delivered per year. So then to the rest of the Columbias:

SSBN-830   2036

SSBN-831   2037

SSBN-832   2038

SSBN-833   2039

SSBN-834   2040

SSBN-835   2041

SSBN-836   2042

SSBN-837   2043

It is only after the top priority Columbias are completed that (from 2044) a few years of 2 to 3 Virginias constructed per year may permit one used Virginia to Australia in 2046.

More details: “Navy Columbia (SSBN-826) Class Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress: Updated September 25, 2025 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov CRN R41129 https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/26173199-columbiaprogramcrs/

So the first Virginia Australia is likely to receive is one Very second-hand one in 2046. 

The UK’s SSN-AUKUS development schedule is likely even more delayed given the UKs chronic problems with the PWR2 reactor and piping corrosion and how to avoid this in a miniaturised PWR3 for SSN-AUKUS. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_PWR#PWR2

December 1, 2025

Canada's Future Subs: VLS Irrelevant? Last 6 Nuclear?: Part One

With its trouble prone Victoria-class submarines expected to retire in the mid to late 2030s Canada is seeking from 8 to 12 new (foreign?) build replacements quite quickly to patrol Canada's 3 oceans (Pacific, Arctic and Atlantic). For this Canada appears prepared to eventually pay up to 60 billion Canadian dollars (about US$43.5 Billion). 

Set out below note the following 15 draft high-level mandatory requirements "Patrol Submarine Project – Request for Information | Solicitation ID W8481-23PPS | RFI – Annex A – Draft HLMRs (Report). Government of Canada. June 12 2023, [5] recorded here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Patrol_Submarine#Background :

  • "The platform shall be a submarine that can perform patrol and surveillance missions in Canada’s maritime approaches and littoral waters.
  • The platform shall be conventionally powered (diesel-electric).
  • The platform shall have an operational range of at least 7,000 nautical miles (13,000 km; 8,100 mi) on diesel fuel at 8 knots.
  • The platform shall be able to transit at least 3,000 nautical miles (5,600 km; 3,500 mi) submerged on batteries/AIP before snorting.
  • The platform shall be able to operate in first-year Arctic ice (up to 1 m thick) and survive in polar-class cold-weather conditions.
  • The platform shall have a low acoustic signature consistent with modern SSK design standards (radiated noise ≤ 110 dB/1 µPa/√Hz re 1 Hz at 1 kHz).
  • The platform shall be fitted with a bow sonar array, flank arrays, and a towed array sonar.
  • The platform shall have at least six 533 mm torpedo tubes and be able to store and launch torpedoes, missiles, mines and UUVs. [Note no requirement for VLS]
  • The platform shall provide secure VLF/HF/UHF and SATCOM communications with Canadian and allied networks.
  • The platform shall be fully interoperable with NATO and Five-Eyes submarine rescue and C4ISR standards.
  • The platform shall meet survivability criteria for shock, fire, flooding and chemical-biological-radiological threats.
  • The platform shall accommodate a mixed-gender crew of at least 60 personnel for deployments up to 60 days without resupply.
  • The platform shall be designed for through-life support in Canada, including training simulators and Canadian-sourced spare parts.
  • The platform shall deliver minimum 25 % Canadian content by value over the total programme life.
  • The platform shall be certified to Transport Canada/RMRS safety rules and be upgradeable through at least two mid-life modernisations."

Pete Comment/Background

On August 26, 2025 Canada shortlisted Germany's TKMS Type 212CD (Common Design) and South Korea's Hanwha Ocean's KSS-III to develop paper designs by 2028 that are variants of operating subs for what is called the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP).

Notwithstanding KSS-IIIs for the South Korean Navy featuring vertical launch systems (VLS) there appears no VLS (in the above requirements) for Canada's future submarines. In fact Canada's Victoria-class do not carry Harpoon missiles (see right sidebar) let alone Tomahawks. South Korea offered India a "DSME-3000" KSS-III variant without VLS.

So the KSS-III's proven VLS capability may be no advantage in the Canadian competition. Canada may perhaps buy 6 non-VLS KSS-IIIs initially. This may be  followed eventually by 6 South Korean built nuclear powered submarines, excellent for under-ice work, bears consideration. The cost of nuclear powered submarines and quicker build factor may not be prohibitive (for Canadian and Australian customers) if South Korea builds them. Australia might also get around the looming 20-25 years non-delivery of AUKUS SSNs crisis.

November 30, 2025

New Submarines and more! November 2025 roundup

Pete has already written about the Polish A26 selection, and here's my 2 sens (Malaysian sens - worth about 0.7 Australian cents).

I've commented on the A26 programme over the years, but its issues basically come down to the Swedish concept of neutrality, which ended when it joined NATO in March 2024. The A26s for Poland will have newly developed horizontal multi-mission portals and vertical launch systems. 

With the cost of military research and development increasing in the last three decades, Sweden found it difficult to fund its replacement programs, and therefore tried to partner 'unaligned' nations to help fund arms development. While Brazil emerged as a major buyer and contributor to the SAAB Gripen E fighter program, no such nation emerged for the A26 submarine program.

I'm certain the Swedish government of the day expected one of Kockums' biggest export customers, Singapore (which at this point had bought seven used submarines and two new minesweepers), would emerge as an export customer for the A26, but TKMS's ownership of Kockums prevented this, and in November 2013 TKMS won the tender for the Type 218SGs to Singapore (which has matured to a six boat program) It was only in June 2015 that Sweden began its struggle to build the first two A26s alone, with no economies of scale or cash injection that would have been provided by a foreign order. 

Poland's selection of the A26 is a move of significant political implications, no less so as this was first announced by the Swedes. This implies that Sweden places a great deal of importance on this government-to-government deal, as this is Sweden's first major defence deal as a NATO member, and will deepen defence cooperation with the Poles. It is not a joke to call the A26 a submarine built for the Baltic, and I expect a massive investment in Polish naval shipbuilding. This will also benefit Sweden, which does not have a domestic military shipyard capable of handling warships larger than 2,000 tonnes.

Sweden’s Lulea-class frigate program is expected to select a design in 2026. While the Naval Group Defense and Intervention Frigate (FDI) has had a lot of recent press, a tie-in with Poland could include Polish shipyards building additional Type 31 frigates for Sweden. We may see a ‘Baltic Naval Force’ in 2030 with Polish sailors training in Swedish submarines, and Swedish sailors on Polish frigates. 

This was not the only submarine-related news in November 2025, so here's a brief round-up.

Turkish Reis-class. Second of Six Type-214TN boats launched

Image: Navalnews.com
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TKMS has announced the delivery of the second Reis-class (Types-214TN) boat, the TCG Hizirreis (S331), for the Turkish Navy.

The Type-214TN is the Turkish version of the popular Type-214 export AIP design, which is in service with the Greek, Portuguese and South Korean navies. Turkey ordered six boats in 2009, all built at the Gölcük Naval Shipyards, and production seems to be on track, with a boat delivered every two years.

Brazilian Riachuelo-class. Fourth boat launched.

image: Naval Group
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Speaking of popular submarine export designs, Brazil has launched the fourth and last boat in the Riachuelo-class, an enlarged derivative of the DCNS Scorpene.

This should indicate that Brazil is now entering the last phase of its PROSUB program - the start of production on the SN-10 Álvaro Alberto nuclear submarine, which has an expected delivery date of 2034.

Spanish S-80-class. Second boat now afloat after October launch.

Image: Navantia
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Following on from its ceremonial launch in October 2025, Spain's S-82 Narciso Monturiol has been floated out of a floating dock in preparation for its harbour trials. The second of four S-80 Issac Peral-class boats, the S-82 Narciso Monturiol was built without an AIP module. This is because Navantia's BEST bioethanol AIP system was developed too late to be installed in the first two boats. They will receive the AIP module in a later upgrade.

While two working S-80 boats will improve Navantia's export sales chances, with the first boat visiting Egypt in early November, the current lack of an operating AIP system was a major factor that led to the Indian rejection of the design.


November 27, 2025

Poland Selects Saab A26 Submarines: NATO First Uppermost?

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/11/sweden-and-saab-selected-for-polands-new-submarines/

So the South Korean Hanwha Ocean favourite didn't win after all - putting Hanwha Ocean under pressure to sell to Canada and the Philippines. 

Under the NATO First doctrine (see UK description) Poland may have been mindful that buying from fellow NATO member, Sweden,  strengthens the NATO alliance - something unachievable if Poland bought a (non-NATO) South Korean sub.

My next thought was that this inter-NATO aspect might boost NATO-Germany (TKMS's) chances of beating non-NATO-South Korea in the future subs to NATO-Canada competition. The Korea Times raises this very issue, in an article of November 28, 2025, here https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/business/companies/20251128/can-korean-shipbuilders-end-disappointing-streak-with-bid-for-canadian-subs .

November 18, 2025

US/Lockheed's Own Poseidon Nuclear Deterrent?

Boeing's Orca above possibly 16m standard length (Photo courtesy US Navy) and below showing around a 2m beam (Photo courtesy MilitaryLeak(dot)com).


As with nuclear armed US SLBMs since the 1960s the promise of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) ie. a nuclear deterrent, may be the best defence against Russia's Poseidon nuclear armed, nuclear powered torpedos/AUVs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status-6_Oceanic_Multipurpose_System

If Russia even hinted that it might use Poseidons against the US, the US could promise it would launch US Poseidons and other nuclear weapons against Russia. 

When the US put out tenders for the Orca very large UUV/AUV, Boeing publicly won the competition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orca_(AUV). But significantly there was no word or complaint, I know of, from the other competitor, Lockheed Martin (LM), about losing. I suspect LM was asked to develop "black program" US nuclear armed, nuclear propelled Poseidon-like weapons as a response to Russia and also  for potential use against China, North Korea and any other hostile nuclear powers. 

The US quietly telling Russia "we also have a Poseidon we could use against you" constitutes the age-old and effective MAD strategy. Boeing may also be in the know about this LM project because LM could use Boeing's Orca "hull" conveniently  larger (up to 26m long = 16m standard + 10m payload module) than Russia's 20m Poseidon (see right sidebar).


Here and above is a 6 minute Wall Street Journal (WSJ) mini-documentary on what Russia's Poseidon is and what it may do.
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November 14, 2025

US and China Leading The Large Carrier Arms Race

Through much original scientific and engineering research, espionage and reverse engineering China has rapidly developed electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS), aka aircraft carrier electromagnetic catapults. China probably tested its EMALS with a pilot at sea in mid 2025 on its latest aircraft carrier Fujian, of the Type 003 class commissioned November 5, 2025.  Fujian's EMALS are inspired by the first pilot at sea use on the USN's latest supercarrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) on July 28, 2017. The US is probably building 10 more Fords to replace its 10 Nimitz-class carriers on a one-for-one basis.

In building the Type 003 class China has leaped from limited war-load ski-jump carriers of the Type 001 and 002 classes and avoided obsolete steam catapult technology altogether. 

I don't know whether China will build more Type 003s or proceed straight to nuclear powered Type 004s. At the rapid rate China is advancing in carrier technology I wouldn't be surprised if China builds 7 x Type 004s. Seven Chinese nuclear  carriers in the Indo-Pacific might give China something approaching parity with the USN. This is given the USN's eleven carriers must cover much more ocean - that being the Atlantic-Arctic as well.

Meanwhile the UK has taken a step back from its two full size steam CATOBAR Audacious-class aircraft carriers of the 1950-70s in building two full size ski-jump carriers of the Queen Elizabeth (QE) class. The QEs are limited to F-35Bs of limited range, limited war-load with no scope for manned fixed wing anti-submarine aircraft and no E-2 Hawkeye style AEW aircraft. 

India, currently having ski-jump carriers seems to have settled on a future EMALS CATOBAR carrier to be called INS Vishal. Vishal may be conventionally of nuclear powered and probably commissioned at least 15 years from now, in the 2040s.

France may retire its nuclear powered carrier Charles de Gaulle (CdG) in 2038, but probably later. France aims to replace CdG with a new nuclear carrier Porte-avions de nouvelle génération (PANG) in English "new generation aircraft carrier" after only 7 years of construction (2031-2038). But I think the timings are overly ambitious, given France has 4 x 3rd generation SSBNs (SNLE 3G) to be completed by 2050. France also needs to meet the increased Russian conventional and nuclear armed forces threat. 

After Russia's experience with the troubled carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and earlier carrier-cruisers Russia should be encouraged to build several more. This may spare two or three blameless European countries from Putin's love of invasion.





Here and above is "Deep Intel on New Chinese Carrier's First Flight Ops" uploaded September 25, 2025 and expertly narrated by former US Navy F-14 Radar Intercept Officer Ward Carroll on his Youtube Channel. Ward provided the description below:  

"A video just released by the Chinese government documents that the People’s Liberation Army Navy recently had a significant operational milestone. During an at sea period off the coast of Shanghai, the PLAN aircraft carrier Fujian, which was launched three years ago, already completed its first successful flight operations that included using the J-35China's fifth generation fighter, and the electromagnetic catapult system better known by the acronym “EMALS.”"

November 9, 2025

Japanese Reaction? South Korea-US Nuclear Sub Deal

Asahi.com reports "Japan eyes nuclear subs after U.S. gives OK to S. Korea" November 6, 2025 at https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/16143129

[Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi] "said on Nov. 6 that Japan must consider adding nuclear-powered submarines to its fleet, a sentiment spurred by U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent approval for South Korea to build its own..."

Pete Comment:

Japan expressing interest in nuclear submarines once South Korea makes nuclear submarine progress is no surprise. I have been predicting it since 2015, if not earlier, see my: 

"South Korean Submarines, 3,000+ ton KSS-III, Nuclear Potential" of April 16, 2015 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/04/south-korean-submarines-3000-ton-kss.html Comments below it include:

"Pete [wrote]

Thanks Biswajit Pattanaik

1) RoK's (I will call it SK's) KSS-II is a TKMS-HDW 214. It looks like a well balanced submarine with good range. I think it would serve Australia needs if the AIP were removed and Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) used. Australia's Navy, if buying from TKMS, almost definitely wants a larger 216.

2) Australia considers SK an ally - this is mainly in the US regulated alliance structure. All 3 countries see China and Russia as potential strategic opponents.

3) If SK built a KSS-N then Japan would almost definitely respond by building a nuclear propelled "Soryu". (Japan and SK are not enemies but they are not friends either.) Australia would probably respond by asking the US to sell (about 6) Virginia SSNs/SSGNs to Australia.

4) Australia's current strategy is to support the US in order to persuade the US to keep on defending Australia against nuclear powers. This is called extended nuclear deterrence.

If the US didn't help or wouldn't at least sell us SSNs/SSGNs then Australia might need to develop its own nuclear weapons for "armed neutrality".

Regards

Pete

4/21/2015 1:29 PM" 
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Also see my:

"S Korea richer than Russia: So SK SSBN might be Affordable" of August 2021 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/08/s-korea-richer-than-russia-so-sk-ssbn.html

https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/12/s-korean-built-nuke-sub-reactor-likely.html  of December 2021 

"S. Korean & Japanese Nuclear Submarine Propulsion & Weapons" of August 2020 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/08/s-korean-japanese-nuclear-submarine.html 

Also see: https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2019/10/south-korea-looking-at-frances.html

and most recent https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/09/russia-suspected-of-helping-north-korea.html

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Separately by early October 2025 Japanese intelligence may have become aware of the coming South Korea-US nuclear submarine deal. 

See my "Japan Long Term Planning ICBM as well as SSGN Capabilities? Hypersonic Missiles" of October 26, 2025 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/10/japan-long-term-planning-icbm-as-well.html