3rd Priority AUKUS Virginias for Australia: Columbias Top Priority: Ford Carriers 2nd Priority

In Australia many Australian civilian and naval interests are relying on AUKUS Pillar 1 submarine program keeping to the US deliver a Second-Hand Virginia to Australia by 2032 schedule.

However, it is more likely the first Virginia for Australia will be in 2046 due to the calculations below on the delayed, higher priority, Columbia-class SSBN program which shares supply chains, shipyards and work forces with the third priority Virginia program.

The production of 1.1 “standard” Virginias per year is likely to reduce to 0.8 Block Vs per year (ie. one every 15 months) starting with the Block V USS Oklahoma's expected commissioning in 2030-31 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class .

There is also competition from the second priority, delayed - Ford-class carrier construction program at HII's submarine/shipyard complex in thee state of Virginia. 

The measuring stick of "deliveries" of Columbias doesn't mean actual commissioning of Columbias. First of class (Columbia) may experience 3 years of pre-commissioning tests (and bug fixing) after delivery to the USN.

In early 2025 USN Rear Adm. Todd Weeks, Program Executive Officer for Strategic Submarines advised the 12 Columbia class delivery or commissioning(?) is to be:

USS Columbia (SSBN-826) in 2029

USS Wisconsin (SSBN-827) in 2032

USS Groton (SSBN-828) in 2034

From USS Grotton Columbia-class delivery will optimistically be one SSBN per year, hence SSBN-829 in 2035.

The one SSBN per year drumbeat will mean less than one standard Virginia delivered per year. So then to the rest of the Columbias:

SSBN-830   2036

SSBN-831   2037

SSBN-832   2038

SSBN-833   2039

SSBN-834   2040

SSBN-835   2041

SSBN-836   2042

SSBN-837   2043

It is only after the top priority Columbias are completed that (from 2044) a few years of 2 to 3 Virginias constructed per year may permit one used Virginia to Australia in 2046.

More details: “Navy Columbia (SSBN-826) Class Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress: Updated September 25, 2025 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov CRN R41129 https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/26173199-columbiaprogramcrs/ “

So the first Virginia Australia is likely to receive is one Very second-hand one in 2046. 

The UK’s SSN-AUKUS development schedule is likely even more delayed given the UKs chronic problems with the PWR2 reactor and piping corrosion and how to avoid this in a miniaturised PWR3 for SSN-AUKUS. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_PWR#PWR2

Canada's Future Subs: VLS Irrelevant? Last 6 Nuclear?: Part One

With its trouble prone Victoria-class submarines expected to retire in the mid to late 2030s Canada is seeking from 8 to 12 new (foreign?) build replacements quite quickly to patrol Canada's 3 oceans (Pacific, Arctic and Atlantic). For this Canada appears prepared to eventually pay up to 60 billion Canadian dollars (about US$43.5 Billion). 

Set out below note the following 15 draft high-level mandatory requirements "Patrol Submarine Project – Request for Information | Solicitation ID W8481-23PPS | RFI – Annex A – Draft HLMRs (Report). Government of Canada. June 12 2023, ^[5] recorded here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Patrol_Submarine#Background :

• "The platform shall be a submarine that can perform patrol and surveillance missions in Canada’s maritime approaches and littoral waters.
• The platform shall be conventionally powered (diesel-electric).
• The platform shall have an operational range of at least 7,000 nautical miles (13,000 km; 8,100 mi) on diesel fuel at 8 knots.
• The platform shall be able to transit at least 3,000 nautical miles (5,600 km; 3,500 mi) submerged on batteries/AIP before snorting.
• The platform shall be able to operate in first-year Arctic ice (up to 1 m thick) and survive in polar-class cold-weather conditions.
• The platform shall have a low acoustic signature consistent with modern SSK design standards (radiated noise ≤ 110 dB/1 µPa/√Hz re 1 Hz at 1 kHz).
• The platform shall be fitted with a bow sonar array, flank arrays, and a towed array sonar.
• The platform shall have at least six 533 mm torpedo tubes and be able to store and launch torpedoes, missiles, mines and UUVs. [Note no requirement for VLS]
• The platform shall provide secure VLF/HF/UHF and SATCOM communications with Canadian and allied networks.
• The platform shall be fully interoperable with NATO and Five-Eyes submarine rescue and C4ISR standards.
• The platform shall meet survivability criteria for shock, fire, flooding and chemical-biological-radiological threats.
• The platform shall accommodate a mixed-gender crew of at least 60 personnel for deployments up to 60 days without resupply.
• The platform shall be designed for through-life support in Canada, including training simulators and Canadian-sourced spare parts.
• The platform shall deliver minimum 25 % Canadian content by value over the total programme life.
• The platform shall be certified to Transport Canada/RMRS safety rules and be upgradeable through at least two mid-life modernisations."

Pete Comment/Background

On August 26, 2025 Canada shortlisted Germany's TKMS Type 212CD (Common Design) and South Korea's Hanwha Ocean's KSS-III to develop paper designs by 2028 that are variants of operating subs for what is called the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP).

Notwithstanding KSS-IIIs for the South Korean Navy featuring vertical launch systems (VLS) there appears no VLS (in the above requirements) for Canada's future submarines. In fact Canada's Victoria-class do not carry Harpoon missiles (see right sidebar) let alone Tomahawks. South Korea offered India a "DSME-3000" KSS-III variant without VLS.

So the KSS-III's proven VLS capability may be no advantage in the Canadian competition. Canada may perhaps buy 6 non-VLS KSS-IIIs initially. This may be  followed eventually by 6 South Korean built nuclear powered submarines, excellent for under-ice work, bears consideration. The cost of nuclear powered submarines and quicker build factor may not be prohibitive (for Canadian and Australian customers) if South Korea builds them. Australia might also get around the looming 20-25 years non-delivery of AUKUS SSNs crisis.

New Submarines and more! November 2025 roundup

Pete has already written about the Polish A26 selection, and here's my 2 sens (Malaysian sens - worth about 0.7 Australian cents).

I've commented on the A26 programme over the years, but its issues basically come down to the Swedish concept of neutrality, which ended when it joined NATO in March 2024. The A26s for Poland will have newly developed horizontal multi-mission portals and vertical launch systems. 

With the cost of military research and development increasing in the last three decades, Sweden found it difficult to fund its replacement programs, and therefore tried to partner 'unaligned' nations to help fund arms development. While Brazil emerged as a major buyer and contributor to the SAAB Gripen E fighter program, no such nation emerged for the A26 submarine program.

I'm certain the Swedish government of the day expected one of Kockums' biggest export customers, Singapore (which at this point had bought seven used submarines and two new minesweepers), would emerge as an export customer for the A26, but TKMS's ownership of Kockums prevented this, and in November 2013 TKMS won the tender for the Type 218SGs to Singapore (which has matured to a six boat program) It was only in June 2015 that Sweden began its struggle to build the first two A26s alone, with no economies of scale or cash injection that would have been provided by a foreign order. 

Poland's selection of the A26 is a move of significant political implications, no less so as this was first announced by the Swedes. This implies that Sweden places a great deal of importance on this government-to-government deal, as this is Sweden's first major defence deal as a NATO member, and will deepen defence cooperation with the Poles. It is not a joke to call the A26 a submarine built for the Baltic, and I expect a massive investment in Polish naval shipbuilding. This will also benefit Sweden, which does not have a domestic military shipyard capable of handling warships larger than 2,000 tonnes.

Sweden’s Lulea-class frigate program is expected to select a design in 2026. While the Naval Group Defense and Intervention Frigate (FDI) has had a lot of recent press, a tie-in with Poland could include Polish shipyards building additional Type 31 frigates for Sweden. We may see a ‘Baltic Naval Force’ in 2030 with Polish sailors training in Swedish submarines, and Swedish sailors on Polish frigates. 

This was not the only submarine-related news in November 2025, so here's a brief round-up.

Turkish Reis-class. Second of Six Type-214TN boats launched

Image: Navalnews.com
---

TKMS has announced the delivery of the second Reis-class (Types-214TN) boat, the TCG Hizirreis (S331), for the Turkish Navy.

The Type-214TN is the Turkish version of the popular Type-214 export AIP design, which is in service with the Greek, Portuguese and South Korean navies. Turkey ordered six boats in 2009, all built at the Gölcük Naval Shipyards, and production seems to be on track, with a boat delivered every two years.

Brazilian Riachuelo-class. Fourth boat launched.

image: Naval Group
---

Speaking of popular submarine export designs, Brazil has launched the fourth and last boat in the Riachuelo-class, an enlarged derivative of the DCNS Scorpene.

This should indicate that Brazil is now entering the last phase of its PROSUB program - the start of production on the SN-10 Álvaro Alberto nuclear submarine, which has an expected delivery date of 2034.

Spanish S-80-class. Second boat now afloat after October launch.

Image: Navantia
---

Following on from its ceremonial launch in October 2025, Spain's S-82 Narciso Monturiol has been floated out of a floating dock in preparation for its harbour trials. The second of four S-80 Issac Peral-class boats, the S-82 Narciso Monturiol was built without an AIP module. This is because Navantia's BEST bioethanol AIP system was developed too late to be installed in the first two boats. They will receive the AIP module in a later upgrade.

While two working S-80 boats will improve Navantia's export sales chances, with the first boat visiting Egypt in early November, the current lack of an operating AIP system was a major factor that led to the Indian rejection of the design.

Poland Selects Saab A26 Submarines: Inter-NATO issue Uppermost?

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/11/sweden-and-saab-selected-for-polands-new-submarines/

So the South Korean Hanwha Ocean favourite didn't win after all - putting Hanwha Ocean under pressure to sell to Canada and the Philippines. 

Poland may have been mindful that buying from fellow NATO member, Sweden,  strengthens the NATO alliance - something unachievable if Poland bought a (non-NATO) South Korean sub.

My next thought was that this inter-NATO aspect might boost NATO-Germany (TKMS's) chances of beating non-NATO-South Korea in the future subs to NATO-Canada competition. The Korea Times raises this very issue, in an article of November 28, 2025, here https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/business/companies/20251128/can-korean-shipbuilders-end-disappointing-streak-with-bid-for-canadian-subs .

US/Lockheed's Own Poseidon Nuclear Deterrent?

Boeing's Orca above possibly 16m standard length (Photo courtesy US Navy) and below showing around a 2m beam (Photo courtesy MilitaryLeak(dot)com).

As with nuclear armed US SLBMs since the 1960s the promise of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) ie. a nuclear deterrent, may be the best defence against Russia's Poseidon nuclear armed, nuclear powered torpedos/AUVs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status-6_Oceanic_Multipurpose_System

If Russia even hinted that it might use Poseidons against the US, the US could promise it would launch US Poseidons and other nuclear weapons against Russia. 

When the US put out tenders for the Orca very large UUV/AUV, Boeing publicly won the competition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orca_(AUV). But significantly there was no word or complaint, I know of, from the other competitor, Lockheed Martin (LM), about losing. I suspect LM was asked to develop "black program" US nuclear armed, nuclear propelled Poseidon-like weapons as a response to Russia and also  for potential use against China, North Korea and any other hostile nuclear powers. 

The US quietly telling Russia "we also have a Poseidon we could use against you" constitutes the age-old and effective MAD strategy. Boeing may also be in the know about this LM project because LM could use Boeing's Orca "hull" conveniently  larger (up to 26m long = 16m standard + 10m payload module) than Russia's 20m Poseidon (see right sidebar).

Here and above is a 6 minute Wall Street Journal (WSJ) mini-documentary on what Russia's Poseidon is and what it may do.

---

US and China Leading The Large Carrier Arms Race

Through much original scientific and engineering research, espionage and reverse engineering China has rapidly developed electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS), aka aircraft carrier electromagnetic catapults. China probably tested its EMALS with a pilot at sea in mid 2025 on its latest aircraft carrier Fujian, of the Type 003 class commissioned November 5, 2025.  Fujian's EMALS are inspired by the first pilot at sea use on the USN's latest supercarrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) on July 28, 2017. The US is probably building 10 more Fords to replace its 10 Nimitz-class carriers on a one-for-one basis.

In building the Type 003 class China has leaped from limited war-load ski-jump carriers of the Type 001 and 002 classes and avoided obsolete steam catapult technology altogether. 

I don't know whether China will build more Type 003s or proceed straight to nuclear powered Type 004s. At the rapid rate China is advancing in carrier technology I wouldn't be surprised if China builds 7 x Type 004s. Seven Chinese nuclear  carriers in the Indo-Pacific might give China something approaching parity with the USN. This is given the USN's eleven carriers must cover much more ocean - that being the Atlantic-Arctic as well.

Meanwhile the UK has taken a step back from its two full size steam CATOBAR Audacious-class aircraft carriers of the 1950-70s in building two full size ski-jump carriers of the Queen Elizabeth (QE) class. The QEs are limited to F-35Bs of limited range, limited war-load with no scope for manned fixed wing anti-submarine aircraft and no E-2 Hawkeye style AEW aircraft. 

India, currently having ski-jump carriers seems to have settled on a future EMALS CATOBAR carrier to be called INS Vishal. Vishal may be conventionally of nuclear powered and probably commissioned at least 15 years from now, in the 2040s.

France may retire its nuclear powered carrier Charles de Gaulle (CdG) in 2038, but probably later. France aims to replace CdG with a new nuclear carrier Porte-avions de nouvelle génération (PANG) in English "new generation aircraft carrier" after only 7 years of construction (2031-2038). But I think the timings are overly ambitious, given France has 4 x 3rd generation SSBNs (SNLE 3G) to be completed by 2050. France also needs to meet the increased Russian conventional and nuclear armed forces threat. 

After Russia's experience with the troubled carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and earlier carrier-cruisers Russia should be encouraged to build several more. This may spare two or three blameless European countries from Putin's love of invasion.

Here and above is "Deep Intel on New Chinese Carrier's First Flight Ops" uploaded September 25, 2025 and expertly narrated by former US Navy F-14 Radar Intercept Officer Ward Carroll on his Youtube Channel. Ward provided the description below:  

"A video just released by the Chinese government documents that the People’s Liberation Army Navy recently had a significant operational milestone. During an at sea period off the coast of Shanghai, the PLAN aircraft carrier Fujian, which was launched three years ago, already completed its first successful flight operations that included using the J-35, China's fifth generation fighter, and the electromagnetic catapult system better known by the acronym “EMALS.”"

Japanese Reaction? South Korea-US Nuclear Sub Deal

Asahi.com reports "Japan eyes nuclear subs after U.S. gives OK to S. Korea" November 6, 2025 at https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/16143129

[Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi] "said on Nov. 6 that Japan must consider adding nuclear-powered submarines to its fleet, a sentiment spurred by U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent approval for South Korea to build its own..."

Pete Comment:

Japan expressing interest in nuclear submarines once South Korea makes nuclear submarine progress is no surprise. I have been predicting it since 2015, if not earlier, see my: 

"South Korean Submarines, 3,000+ ton KSS-III, Nuclear Potential" of April 16, 2015 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/04/south-korean-submarines-3000-ton-kss.html Comments below it include:

"Pete [wrote]

Thanks Biswajit Pattanaik

1) RoK's (I will call it SK's) KSS-II is a TKMS-HDW 214. It looks like a well balanced submarine with good range. I think it would serve Australia needs if the AIP were removed and Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) used. Australia's Navy, if buying from TKMS, almost definitely wants a larger 216.

2) Australia considers SK an ally - this is mainly in the US regulated alliance structure. All 3 countries see China and Russia as potential strategic opponents.

3) If SK built a KSS-N then Japan would almost definitely respond by building a nuclear propelled "Soryu". (Japan and SK are not enemies but they are not friends either.) Australia would probably respond by asking the US to sell (about 6) Virginia SSNs/SSGNs to Australia.

4) Australia's current strategy is to support the US in order to persuade the US to keep on defending Australia against nuclear powers. This is called extended nuclear deterrence.

If the US didn't help or wouldn't at least sell us SSNs/SSGNs then Australia might need to develop its own nuclear weapons for "armed neutrality".

Regards

Pete

4/21/2015 1:29 PM" 
----------------------------------

Also see my:

"S Korea richer than Russia: So SK SSBN might be Affordable" of August 2021 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/08/s-korea-richer-than-russia-so-sk-ssbn.html

https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/12/s-korean-built-nuke-sub-reactor-likely.html  of December 2021 

"S. Korean & Japanese Nuclear Submarine Propulsion & Weapons" of August 2020 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2020/08/s-korean-japanese-nuclear-submarine.html 

Also see: https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2019/10/south-korea-looking-at-frances.html

and most recent https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/09/russia-suspected-of-helping-north-korea.html

----------------------------------------

Separately by early October 2025 Japanese intelligence may have become aware of the coming South Korea-US nuclear submarine deal. 

See my "Japan Long Term Planning ICBM as well as SSGN Capabilities? Hypersonic Missiles" of October 26, 2025 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/10/japan-long-term-planning-icbm-as-well.html 

Australian Submarine Agency Failure? South Korea-US Nuclear Sub Deal

The first head of the Australian Submarine Agency (ASA) Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead, has announced he will retire in mid-2026. Mead was recruited to the then secret Nuclear Powered Submarine Task Force in February 2021, seven months before the AUKUS submarine pact was unveiled in September 2021. 

Mead’s exit may coincide with Australia’s AUKUS submarine plan now being in disarray because the US has offered South Korea competing access to limited US nuclear submarine technology, production and probably training resources. 

In what may be a major ASA failure it appears Australia only became aware of the US-South Korea Nuclear Submarine deal when it was announced by Trump on Truth Social on October 30, 2025. This lack of notice or advice to Australia represents yet another example of Trumpist bad faith towards the US allies. 

LINKS FIXED: South Korea's Nuclear Submarine Quest From US

Pete COMMENTS

If true (corroborating intelligence is required) Trump's surprise approval (see Article below) for South Korea (SK) to build nuclear submarines has many implications, including:

-  Trump (to maximise US profits) might want Australia and SK to embark on a bidding war to secure scarce US nuclear submarine resources. This includes whole subs, US submarine reactor technology and the very highly enriched (95% U235) weapons' grade uranium that goes into the US reactors. As bidders Australia and SK are very close in Nominal GDP (see Table) hence similar in bidding capability.

-  The already high risk AUKUS Pillar 1 agreement for Virginia submarines is more uncertain than up to mid October 2025, when AUKUS Pillar 1 US good faith was taken for granted by the Australian Government. Risks include huge costs, lengthy timelines and inability of the US to build Virginias quickly enough to keep its end of the Virginia sales "by 2032" bargain. In a nutshell the entry of SK's needs and expectations adds uncertainty.

REVISIONS and Additions REDDED

-  What does SK say it wants and what does it really want? It seems SK, will pay the multi-$Billion nuclear sub entry fee to the US via construction of a prototype "K-SSN" SK and the US build at Hanwha Ocean's "Philly" [Philadelphia] USA shipyard. So in the medium  term (10 years) SK will develop its submarine reactor integration knowledge and experience. 

-  The K-SSN prototype can be seen as akin the UK's original Dreadnought SSN prototype completed in 1962. SSBN's also rely on SSNs when leaving and entering base. K-SSN could also be useful against any SSBN North Korea (NK) develops and with an outside chance Russia may sell used Delta-class SSBNs to NK. 

-  What I think SK really wants, in the medium-long term (10-20 years), is to build nuclear ballistic missile armed SSBNs in SK for its first and second strike capability against North Korea. Such a development may be more possible once SK, like Australia, proves itself a source of funding for the US's nuclear sub supply chain. Also SK is greater value than Australia to the US because SK's highly efficient submarine building skills can increase the productivity of the US's slow build submarine industry.

-  SK already has ballistic missile submarines in the shape of its KSS-III Batch 1s and 2s. All other ballistic missile subs in the world are nuclear powered because a reactor allows them to stay safely fully submerged and travel at 18 knots for 3 months rather than 3 weeks at 4 knots for SK's current conventional/AIP KSS-IIIs - with predictable needs to run very noisy diesels. So a "K-SSBN" is far less vulnerable than SK's current SSBs. Hence SK logically is also seeking nuclear power/reactors.

The Hyunmoo-4.4 SLBMs, probably on the KSS-llls, may have 500km range limitations. But I note SK is developing a much longer range 3,000 kms Hyunmoo-5 land based ballistic missile (IRBM). In land based form it is too heavy and tall, as it must boost a large 8 tonne conventional warhead. But for only a one tonne nuclear warhead a 10m tall Hyunmoo-5 at 1.6m diameter would be a well miniaturized SLBM with perhaps a range of 5,500km. That may be ideal for a KSS-lll SSBs or K-SSBNs to have much safe sea-space to hit NK from afar. Such a missile would be slightly larger than the 1964 Polaris A-3.

Since 2015 I have speculated SK's KSS-III Batch 3 (then called KSSN or KSS-N) subs would be nuclear powered.

Also see my:

2020 article (on SK's request for enriched uranium for submarine reactors from the first Trump administration)

2021 article, and 

September 2025 article (where I also discuss SK strategic tensions with Japan which might cause Japan to develop a nuclear sub reactor).  

Trump's SK surprise also has implications for Canada which has suffered US opposition to Canada purchasing UK or French nuclear submarines for decades. Canada wants superior under ice performance in its future class of subs. Nuclear subs would be ideal. So Canada will be arguing "if it is OK for Australia and SK to have nuclear subs why not us (Canada) as well?" SK could build SSNs for Canada.

------------------------ 

ARTICLE

Japan's NHK World News reports October 30, 2025 at https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20251030_06/

"South Korea requests US approval for acquiring nuclear-powered submarines"

"South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has asked US President Donald Trump for approval to acquire nuclear-powered submarines at a summit meeting on Wednesday.

Trump wrote on [Truth Social at https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115459650821125830 , on October 30, 2025], "Our Military Alliance is stronger than ever before and, based on that, I have given them [South Korea] approval to build a Nuclear Powered Submarine."

The two leaders met in the South Korean city of Gyeongju to discuss tariffs and North Korea, among other things.

Lee told Trump he hopes the US president will decide to allow South Korea to acquire fuel supplies for nuclear-powered submarines so that it can build several such vessels using its own technology.

Lee added that South Korea using nuclear-powered submarines to defend the waters around the Korean Peninsula would ultimately reduce the burden on US forces.

South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported that it is the first time the South Korean government has made public its intention to acquire nuclear-powered submarines.

The media outlet carried an analysis presuming that the South Korean request comes as Seoul feels the need to promptly put nuclear-powered submarines into operational deployment to deal with threats from Pyongyang [North Korea]."

4th Nov 2025: AUKUS, Zirconium, Nuclear Testing.

Mouse plague in Australia 4 years ago, here and above. It may happen again in 2025-26.
---

1. There could be a mouse plague in southeastern Australia over the next 6 months due to higher rainfall this year is some parts. The plague starts in grain growing areas and then spreads to coastal areas in high green and brown grass. Then mice move to food sources inside houses and supermarkets, etc. As well as crop damage mice eat electrical wiring of fridges, cars and tractors is destructive. 

2. The AUKUS deal is not guaranteed despite Mr Trump's vague endorsement. The first Virginia nuclear sub may arrive here in 2043 not the originally envisaged 2032. The only 2 US submarine factories must complete the higher priority Columbia-class nuclear missile subs first – due to happen by 2042 or later. Only then can they speed up production of the Virginias to 4 a year – sufficient to export Virginias to Australia. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-22/concern-remain-over-aukus-following-trump-talk/105918678

3. In 2006 Australia signed a deal to export vast amounts of Uranium (U) to China. This may not have meant Aussie U going into Chinese nuclear weapons. But it freed up China's own U mines to concentrate their production for Chinese nuclear weapons, All this means Australia is party to an indirect bilateral supply chain for Chinese nuclear weapons. 

4. More recently 2 Chinese companies are the largest shareholders in 2 Australian mines producing minerals vital for China’s hypersonic missiles and nuclear programs. The Australian government even gave one of the Chinese companies a $160 million soft loan to help it into production. China depends on imports for its supply of critical mineral Zirconium. Australia is the world's largest Zirconium producer and supplies China with 41% of its Zirconium supplies. Australian Zirconium eventually finds its way to Chinese and Russian weapons – see https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-03/china-critical-mineral-nuclear-program-australia-supplying/105951072

5. Trump has called for the US to immediately restart the process for testing nuclear weapons. He did not specify what that would involve apart from being "on equal basis" with other countries' (mainly Russia and China) testing programs. Nuclear explosions? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-01/what-donald-trump-us-nuclear-weapons-testing-would-mean/105955836

6. Because hybrid and electric vehicles are very silent when backing up, travelling a few 100 meters forward or a whole trip new government regulations will require an Acoustic Vehicle Alerting System (AVAS). Drivers of EVs are able to choose the sound effect - from ghost moaning, ice cream van jingles, to Teslas farting. Listen to this https://youtu.be/seEVSFq3FmE?si=NaDr0uSmTd8lZ9Ia

7. Andrew Mountbatten Windsor is moving into another mansion, early next year. This time on the royal 5 mansion and one palace size Sandringham estate. At least 2 layers of security cover the perimeter of the entire 20,000 acre Sandringham Estate. Andrew will not need to contribute to those layers of security. So this means Andrew is hardly the paying private citizen many British public and many Parliamentarians demanded.

8. Cute Animal Corner: People on a whale watching tour off the California coast were lucky enough to spot a gray whale giving birth. After seeing a pool of blood, the tourists feared the whale had encountered a predator. But they soon saw a smaller fluke, or tail, poke out from under the water. The newborn calf nuzzled as the mom held it up because newborn whales cannot swim well for 24 hours until their tails become rigid.

9. Large software upgrades often cause grief as Australian telecommunication carriers and large banks are increasingly experiencing. This is the old Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) all-Australia-rain-weather-radar MAP the BOM deleted 2 weeks ago - that the BOM was forced by huge political pressure to reinstate: https://reg.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml .

Trump's nuclear testing order odd

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/31/politics/trump-nuclear-weapons-testing-experts-russia

How quantum sensors could make submarines almost impossible to hide

https://www.wionews.com/photos/how-quantum-sensors-could-make-submarines-almost-impossible-to-hide-1761807283801/1761807283806

Taboo Topics: Monday October 27, 2025

Australia has been supplying Ukraine with a 100 low-cost cardboard drones per month since March 2023. The cardboard drones can carry 5kg of weight, have a wingspan of two metres and a range of 120km. (Photo courtesy SYPAQ via Australia's ABC News)
---

1. Melbourne, Australia, company SYPAQ has supplied more than 3,000 cheap A$5,000 cardboard drones to Ukraine since 2022. They are used by soldiers for spying, supply drops and one way explosive missions. The drones weigh about 6kg. Their biggest successes have been damaging 5 Russian fighter aircraft on the ground, damaging Russian anti-aircraft batteries and a radar station. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-03/ukraine-war-australian-made-cardboard-drones-russia-warfare/102804120

2. I think the mathematics of NET-ZERO are so complex that Aussies won't make financial sacrifices for what they don't understand. So AI Googling "Net Zero Australia" yields. in part: ""Australia has a legislated target to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050, with an interim target of a 43% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030. A newer target of 62–70% reduction by 2035 has also been set." This is too complex for the majority of Aussies, who cannot afford solar, to pay higher electricity prices for. Hence Albo has been paying all households the A$75 electricity rebate per quarter.

3. The AUKUS deal is by no means guaranteed despite Mr Trump's apparent endorsement. The first Virginia nuclear sub may arrive here in 2043 not the originally envisaged 2032. The only 2 US submarine factories are due to complete the higher priority Columbia-class nuclear missile subs in 2042. Only then can they speed up production of the Virginias to 4 a year – sufficient to export Virginias to Australia. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-22/concern-remain-over-aukus-following-trump-talk/105918678

4. China is manipulating the price of unprocessed rare earths to put rivals, like Australian companies, out of business. When a foreign rival supplier appears China turns to "loss leading". That is flooding the market with cheap rare earths to drive down prices, putting the rivals out of business. Also China may be using fake social media accounts and agents on the ground to alarm processor countries, like Malaysia, about (probably) exaggerated pollution concerns. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-23/australia-us-join-china-in-race-to-bottom-on-rare-earth-prices/105921278

5. Over a quarter of Gen Zers (13 to 28 year olds) say that sometimes they'd rather stay home and talk to a chatbot than go out with a friend. And nearly 3 in 10 Gen Zs said that they can imagine themselves becoming romantically attached to a chatbot. This may drop birth rates lower than their current, low-low levels. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-22/ai-relationship-study/105917858

6. Barnaby Joyce, who resents Littleproud’s rule of the Nationals, might not recontest his lower house seat and may shift to One Nation. Poor Sussan Ley, in trying to build a stable Coalition, has to put up with Jacinta Price and the lads Hastie and Barnaby.

7. British Prime Minister Starmer has supported British MPs' calls for an investigation into Prince Andrew's and ex-wife Fergie’s rent free living at Royal Lodge. They have not paid rent for 30-room Royal Lodge, on the Windsor Estate, for more than 2 decades. But UK political habits make questions about their betters, the royal family, difficult. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-23/keir-starmer-backs-parliamentary-probe-prince-andrew-royal-lodge/105923348

8. Cute animal corner. Barnacles on a surfboard. A surfboard that spent 17 months at sea travelling from Tasmania to NZ, after it was lost off a boat appears set to be reunited with its owner. A social media post by the Kiwi man who found the board was read by the owner of the globe-trotting board. The owner is travelling to NZ to hug his board. Awww! https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-27/surfboard-found-intact-after-drift-from-tasmania-new-zealand/105935392

Japan Long Term Planning ICBM as well as SSGN Capabilities? Hypersonic Missiles

On October 20, 2025, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Japan Restoration Party signed a coalition Agreement "Liberal Democratic Party-Japan Restoration Party Coalition Government Agreement".

This Agreement brings together the long-dominant LDP and the reform-minded Japan Restoration Party under a shared vision of national revival. It establishes policy cooperation across a wide range of areas, including revising the constitution, defence build-up, fiscal and social security reform, and governance restructuring, to build a "strong and independent Japan" capable of responding to intensifying domestic and international challenges.

---------------------

wispywood2344, a Japanese expert on submarines, missiles, other strategic issues and physics, who has reported reliably on Submarine Matters for many years. He commented in part at 10/26/2025 2:09 AM : 

"Meanwhile, Japan recently saw a realignment of political parties and the formation of a new coalition government. The agreement between the ruling parties included the phrase “long-endurance submarines equipped with next-generation power plants and VLS and stand-off missiles”"  

It is the 5th page of "Liberal Democratic Party-Japan Restoration Party Coalition Government Agreement" at https://o-ishin.jp/news/2025/images/624de5f22900f6e88e892abb49d3fc70ef3cac92.pdf#page=5 
which includes in Japanese:

lわが国の抑止力の大幅な強化を行うため0スタンド・オフ防衛能力の整備を加速化

する観点から0反撃能力を持つ長射程ミサイル等の整備及び陸上展開先の着実な進

展を行うと同時に0長射程のミサイルを搭載し長距離・長期間の移動や潜航を可能

とする次世代の動力を活用したVLS 搭載潜水艦の保有に係る政策を推進するu 

That translated into English states: 

"In order to significantly strengthen Japan's deterrent power, we will accelerate the development of stand-off defense capabilities. From this perspective, we will steadily develop long-range missiles with counterattack capabilities and develop land-based deployments.  

At the same time, we will promote a policy to possess VLS-equipped submarines equipped with long-range missiles and utilizing next-generation power sources that enable long-distance and long-term travel and submerged operation." 

wispywood2344 comments that "this is widely seen as referring to SSGNs. In the distant future, “JUKUS-SSGNs” similar to “AUKUS-SSNs” may become a reality." 

----------------------

Pete Comment

When the Agreement on page 5 mentions "Japan's deterrent power [and] counterattack capabilities and develop land-based deployments." I can interpret the drafters as meaning a long term strategic option of nuclear deterrence using ICBMs.

ICBM? Japan has been developing  the dual-use Epsilon long range rocket/missile capability since 2007. (See image below) Epsilon is a 3 to 4 stage solid fuel rocket with no strap-on boosters. This Epsilons ideal for deployment in protective silos. 

More see my article "Japan's Epsilon Rocket, An ICBM in Waiting" of December 22, 2013 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2013/12/japans-new-military-buildup-seen-as.html

Japanese SSGN? Japan developed the nuclear powered ship Mutsu in 1972. This means Japan's prior development of a miniature marine reactor, more than 50 years ago, gives it the beginnings of a submarine reactor capability.  

In the US context SSGNs (with Tomahawk missiles) are used for land attack. Land attack may be the main function envisaged for Japanese future SSGNs although anti-ship may be a secondary capability.

Japanese Hypersonic Missiles? Japan is developing a Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile, (also see this and this video commentary here) with a booster it would be a hypersonic missile. A submarine launched variant is under consideration. Japan is also developing a Hypersonic Cruise Missile (HCM) (see page 22 of this US document). Japan's opponents in Northeast Asia would probably have great difficulty shooting them down.