Pete Comment
Unlike Australia the Netherlands and India - Singapore, with its typical national efficiency, has relatively rapidly been procuring new submarines.
In contrast, when, in 2014, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott indicated Australia should buy a Japanese sub this should/would have set in train a process resulting in the first Japanese sub (an SSK) in RAN hands by 2030. Meaning Australia's looming 2030s submarine capability gap would be avoided.
Article
Shawn C. who clearly knows a fair bit about Singaporean submarine matters, has kindly provided the following:
"As you know, TKMS has been
very busy in the last couple of years, with Singaporean and Israeli orders, with the start of German/Norwegian Type 212CD production in 2023.
The second and third (RSS Impeccable and RSS Illustrious) of four Invincible-class (aka Type 212SG) submarines for the Singapore Navy, were launched on December 13, 2022. These join first in class, RSS Invincible, which was launched on February 18, 2019 and has been conducting crew training from Kiel on the German Baltic. Kiel is an interesting multi-cultural place, as the last Dolphin 2 sub (INS Drakon) will also be training in Kiel till sometime next year.
RSS Invincible may be in Singapore waters in 2023. There is no ETA as to when the last Invincible-class submarine, RSS Inimitable will be completed (I reckon if the RSN was following UK RN capital ship naming conventions - this name Inimitable should be replaced with Indefatigable or Indomitable).
Some sources on the two launches are:
- Singaporean Ministry of
Defence News Release
and
- Local newspaper Kieler Nachrichten
article [right-click mouse if it doesn’t automatically translate]
Interestingly, Hydrogen production (for fuel cells and power generation) is a nascent/promising technology in Singapore at the moment, though there are moves to start Hydrogen supply. See this H2 Bulletin article."
20 comments:
To be fair to Australia and India they have much more difficult requirements for their submarine programs.
Australia needs a SSN or at least a SSK with close enough capabilities to a SSN and it wants part of it to be built in Australia.
India also apparently wants an ocean going SSK that can be built in India. It also wants ToT to help its own indigenous SSK and SSN programs.
If India and Australia were fine with having a largely off-the-shelf submarine built in the Germany or France or South Korea without ToT then they would probably have a submarine already.
In India's case France wouldn't even have a problem building more Scorpènes or even another type of French Sub in Mazagon fairly quickly if ordered.
There's plenty of images of the RSS Invincible sailing out of Kiel on training and flying a German flag, so it may be 'sent home' to Singapore soon, as the 2 Challenger (ex-Sjöormen) are now very long in the tooth.
The initial delivery date publicly announced is 2022 for the first pair, and 2024 for the second pair, so the actual delivery date doesn't seem to have been much delayed by the Covid pandemic, though when IOC takes place is another matter entirety.
The two Archer class (ex-Sondermanland) have served 11 and 9 years now, and while there is no public information on how extensive a refit they underwent after they were purchased at Kockum's used submarine yard, I reckon they will serve till at least 2030.
Sweden recently announced that the Vastergotland class (sisters of the Archers) are also getting a refit to extend their service by six years, till the A26 is commissioned.
Thanks Anonymous @Dec 17, 2022, 1:56:00 AM
I agree with you. Unlike Singapore Australia and India have more difficult, partly-indigenous build choices.
However the difference I'm pointing to is Singapore stuck to its submarine buying planning strategy/process. In contrast Australia and India have delayed, reviewed and still have not resolved their attack submarine buying processes. These might not result in new attack subs far into the 2030s or 2040s.
I can see India's desire to build 6 x Project 75 Alpha SSNs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_75_Alpha may yet clash with India's long unresolved Project-75 (I for India) process to procure 6 SSKs.
Regards Pete
Thanks Shawn C @Dec 17, 2022, 5:42:00 AM
Yes Singapore for many years efficiently benefitted from buying Swedish Kockums secondhand upgraded subs to meet the Singapore Navy's needs. In some respects the Swedish and Singapore navies have similar requirements for SSKs that wait in the narrows and shallows to surveil and, if need be, torpedo enemy ships and subs.
After years of buying secondhand subs Singapore had built up enough institutional knowledge of its requirement to buy (not mess around by building) 4 new SSKs from viable TKMS. Singapore's decision point was in the early 2010s when Kockums belonged to Germany - with Germany disinclined to permit Kockums to win the Singaporean order over Germany's standard submarine builder TKMS.
Regards Pete
The only clash that india will likely face SSN vs SSK will be limitations on budget. The basic stratagem is now clear that both SSKs and SSNs have a role in the battle groups.
Related to this is the ongoing struggle to balance indigenisation of manufacture vs procurement of key subsystems and know how from foreign suppliers naturally hesitant to aid India in that process.
The navy is still ok. It has by far localised manufacturing the most. The struggle is most visible with the army in critical stuff such as light tanks, tower artillery and drones. It is having operational impacts in Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh where China is clear that it won’t allow sanity at any cost.
I am confident SSK and SSN both will roll off the lines from MDL, SBC and private players. I am more worried about the army and to an extent the Air Force.
Hi Ghalibkabir
Yes I'm sure the folks at "Make in India" will produce those SSKs, SSNs and some components eventually.
The Indian Army has its work cut out developing an answer to China's new Type 15 light tank https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_15_tank which is reportedly good for mountain warfare and woodlands etc.
On the Air Force front I agree since the PAK FA joint project fell through India will need to get hold of some 5th Gen aircraft to face China's developing FC-31s and J-20s.
Have a Happy New Year if we don't talk before.
Cheers Pete
https://www.mako.co.il/news-n12_magazine/2022_q1/Article-052369d6b95bf71026.htm&utm_source=Whatsapp&utm_medium=Share?fbclid=IwAR0vLeczZUeSQzKOUjw66VXigDB4iqWtm3FQsdRo_X2GOXBV4Yqg-Km4TTE (google) "This is one of Israel's most secret projects, which arouses great curiosity among intelligence agencies throughout the Middle East and not only. Vertical cruise missiles carrying a nuclear warhead... A person who visited the production line of the submarines, which are being built these days at the Thyssenkrupp shipyard in Germany, describes them as the most advanced and specialized combat system ever produced for any navy. Only the Israeli development team and a limited team of its colleagues in Germany know which weapons, communication and intelligence systems will be installed in it...It is possible that in the future, Raphael's вallistic missile improved model will replace the Popeye inside the submarine." Israel is no longer shy. Regards (The article contains many technical inaccuracies...)
Thanks Oleg7700
For Israeli "News 12" article in Hebrew "Secret war machines - and among the most sophisticated in the world: a close look at the new Dakar submarines being built in Germany"
of March 26, 2022
at https://www.mako.co.il/news-n12_magazine/2022_q1/Article-052369d6b95bf71026.htm&utm_source=Whatsapp&utm_medium=Share?fbclid=IwAR0vLeczZUeSQzKOUjw66VXigDB4iqWtm3FQsdRo_X2GOXBV4Yqg-Km4TT and its info on the Dolphin 3 missiles and combat system.
After Christmas I'll turn the translated article into a SubMatts summary including my suspicion that the suspected vertically fired cruise missile have more than a subsonic flight profile. I think it must have a supersonic end-run to beat Iranian (and other) defences.
Happy Hanukkah 2022 (which I see ends with nightfall on December 26, 2022) and a New Year of Peace
Also see the "Favorite Music" section of my very long "Profile" https://draft.blogger.com/profile/02624742078679760819 which features the lovely Shiri Maimon's https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shiri_Maimon
very stirring rendition of "Hatikva" (The Hope) at https://youtu.be/biQtrQpyJGo?t=15s
Cheers Pete
Hi Pete,
Yes, I am well aware of how TKMS 'Kockums-blocked' its then 'subsidiary' from competing for this contract with the A26 Blekinge-class. In my own opinion this was the final straw that triggered the issues in 2014 that led to SAAB buying Kockums.
If Singapore choose the A26 in 2014 (highly possible considering the military links between Singapore and Sweden at that time), this would have led to a 2 billion euro infusion to the A26 program for four submarines, thought in reality there was no way in 2014 that Kockums could meet Singapore's 2020 delivery date.
Kockums did have a major role in Singapore's Independence-class littoral mission vessels, which is a derivative of the SAAB Kockums FLEXPatrol, and built the composite superstructures.
Singapore only publicly reveals military training and cooperation when there's a PR benefit, and while the Navy's silent service has remained silent on operations, a few facts have been revealed - in 2019 it was disclosed that two Singapore submarine commanders are Perishers, and that submarine training is conducted with the Indian Navy in the Andamans, including warshots.
https://germany.detailzero.com/business/amp/263969 "Private equity investors have approached submarine builder Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) to discuss the possibility of taking a stake in the company, the Handelsblatt business daily reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.The background to the talks is the preparations for TKMS becoming independent".
New shipyards TKMS:https://www.alamy.de/kiel-deutschland-15-august-2022-die-baustelle-der-neuen-schiffbauhalle-der-werft-tkms-thyssenkrupp-marine-systems-am-ostufer-der-kieler-forde-in-der-halle-sollen-ab-2023-u-boote-gebaut-werden-quelle-christian-charisiusdpaalamy-live-news-image482650571.html And Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems eyes MW Werften’s shipyard in Wismar:https://swzmaritime.nl/news/2022/03/24/thyssenkrupp-marine-systems-eyes-mw-werftens-shipyard-in-wismar/ Promising concern, with access to Israeli "atomic secrets"... Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!
Pete
This is a little off the Singapore subs topic but relevant to AUKUS.
Albanese in an interview yesterday stated that Australia “needs to invest” in AUKUS and nuclear submarines.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-to-be-prepared-to-invest-albanese-highlights-need-for-subs-not-tanks-20221214-p5c6ah.html
He also dropped hints where the money might be coming from. He questions preparing the army to fight “battles in western Qld”. This suggests money for the new AFVs ( land 400) and/or tanks might not happen. That would free up another $27 billion for the SSNs, which would be great. Combined with the planned $90 billion for the Attack class program, that just about pays for one of the cheaper SSN options.
Thanks Shawn C @Dec 19, 2022, 10:56:00 PM
I actually wrote about the Germany TKMS vs Swedish FMV Kockums Battle. See my coverage in 2013-14 at SubMatts https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2014/03/corporate-battle-between-saab-and-tkms.html
Indeed blocking Kockums from the Singapore competition did cause Saab to takeover Kockums from TKMS (then HDW)
True "in reality there was no way in 2014 that Kockums could meet Singapore's 2020 delivery date.". I add even Sweden hadn't ordered A26s for its navy at that stage see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blekinge-class_submarine#Order_cancelled_and_alternatives
The lack of A26 orders in 2014, implying Kockums wasn't in a fit corporate state to build subs again then, also kept Saab Kockums out of the Australian SEA 1000 submarine competition of 2014-16.
Ah yes, part of "Singapore only publicly reveals military training and cooperation when there's a PR benefit" is that Singapore doesn't mention its strong special forces and intel ties with Israel - both being small countries in their respective Islamic regions.
Interesting that Singapore conducts "with the Indian Navy in the Andamans, including warshots." I assume tracking of Chinese subs transitting to/from the Malacca Strait is of joint Indian-Singaporean interest.
I'm on Christmas slow-down mode now.
Have a Happy New Year
Pete
Thanks Oleg7700 @Dec 20, 2022, 6:32:00 AM
For those extra links. I'll use them after Christmas.
שיהיה חג חנוכה שמח ושנה טובה
Pete
Hi Anonymous @Dec 20, 2022, 8:46:00 AM
Yes I noticed https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-to-be-prepared-to-invest-albanese-highlights-need-for-subs-not-tanks-20221214-p5c6ah.html
Where Australian Prime Minister Albanese in an interview yesterday stated that Australia “needs to invest” in AUKUS especially budgeting needed for the huge cost of the nuclear submarines. With some savings from a smaller Australian order of Army heavy Tanks and lighter AFVs.
I would say Australia will need to increase the yearly Defence Budget from 2% GDP in 2023-24 to 3% GDP in 2029-2030
I (Pete) have calculated in the past that the all up Project Cost for these 8 x SSNs will be A$500 Billion, counting the Aus, UK, US heightened cumulative inflation rates and for the Project through to 2050 in 2050 A$s.
This is for:
- Training equivalent to constructing and 1,500 person staffing a whole Australian Nuclear University (in Canberra, Sydney, Adelaide or Perth?) and technical training overseas. All for 3,000 Australian submariners, technicians, scientists and administrators.
- 20 years parent navy training (USN or UK RN) on their SSNs
- other infrastructure, including upgrading Fleet Base West, Osborne Shipyard and constructing a East Coast SSN Base (from scratch)
- actual SSN unit construction costs in Osborne and (in the US or UK, whoever wins)
- spares, upgrades, and
- Operations through to 2050.
More next year.
I'm in slow down mode now.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
Pete
This is quite interesting about Turkish submarine building capabilities.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/09/new-advanced-submarine-will-increase-turkish-navy-s-firepower/
Golcuk Shipyard is now building 6 National Submarines or Milden as they call them in Turkish. Besides Japan, Turkey happens to be one of the nations that has not let SSK building capabilities to be rusted. Starting with the Type-209s built from 1981 to 2008 and the 214TN of which 6 are under construction currently with PEMFC AIPs being fitted.
The Milden subs at 2700 tons and with AIP will make the Turkish navy the most potent navy in the Mediterranean sea (excluding all nuclear France ofcourse). 12 heavy armed AIP subs along with the ability to construct 500 ton midget subs and also service/refit subs for others (pakistan) makes Turkey quite capable.
The ability to make sonar, combat system and decoys locally thanks to Havelsan, Roketsan etc. makes Turkey's ability better than even India. Sensibly Turkey has struck to importing AIP and focusing on bulking up Sub numbers, a sure lesson for the IN.
The Hellenes are sure to be very unhappy as Turkey is also building out its surface fleet and is fast progressing a jet powered naval drone project, indigenous VLS based AShM, SAMs etc. Undoubtedly lots of learn from the Turkish Navy.
PS: One hopes ergodan's idiotic rule and quixotic economic policies doesn't impact Turkey in the future
Thanks GhalibKabir @Dec 20, 2022, 12:43:00 PM
Those "terrible" Turks also have problems with Israel, now and then. Currently friendly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Turkey_relations#Rapprochement but who knows? in the medium-long term.
So that may also be contributing to this Turkish submarine veritable arms race you describe.
I'll use your info for an article in the New Year
Bye till then.
Pete
The Turks have had a blow hot blow cold relation with the Israelis since that erratic ergodan took power. The Israelis on the other hand do appreciate the support that turkic nations like Turkey, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, etc provide Israel. One of the reasons Armenia got pulped so badly by Azerbaijan was the high end military support from Turkey and Israel especially UCAVs and satellite intelligence.... it is not a secret that the turks and arabs have issues going back centuries and the arabs don't remember the Ottoman control of Hejaz and other arab lands very kindly. Thanks to Ataturk the turks got out of their slumber while the arabs are yet to.
PS: Israel has played it smart... May be the reason Israel is now effectively making Dolphin SSKs into SSBs is seeing the submarine capabilities evolve in the region. I for one think Israel and IAI's support to turkey was and continues to be a bad idea.
Turkey under Erdogan is in a neo ottoman , historically revisionist, trip
It is an efficient industrial country with a large population which needs stability and open relations
This create concerns/alarms in Greece ,Serbia/Croatia, Russia their prime historical ennemy (Potemkine/Crimea , Crimean "tatars"/Stalin),Syria with their view on the North, Iran/Persia, the sunni moslem states incl N Africa (Qatar and the "Brothers" not currently, Western Europe,secular France in particular expelling turkish "teatchers", China with the Ouighours.Israel , great relationship ,full of trust..!
Any friends around?Azeris ?secular for the time beeing
With the crual views on Russian armies , Nato and the US will not give them blank checks anymore..The EU will certainly not cave in anymore to the German turkish benevolence
Happy Holidays Pete,
“Singapore doesn't mention its strong special forces and intel ties with Israel - both being small countries in their respective Islamic regions.”
It’s not only intel, Israeli military advisors developed the first version of National Service in Singapore in the 1960s and authored all early training manuals. There’s even an anecdotal account of Singapore’s then defense minister wanting to buy Uzis as the primary infantry ‘rifle’ and the advisers insisting on AR-15/M-16s.
Singapore now uses Israeli radars and surveillance systems, Spike anti-tank missiles and drones. Also co-developed the Matador anti-tank, emplacement rocket launcher with Israel n Germany (I recently saw a video of French foreign legion volunteers in Ukraine with German donated rockets).
The Blue Spear anti-ship missile program is maturing just when the Singapore Navy is in need of a Harpoon replacement, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a submarine launched version.
The Blue Spear anti-ship missile will likely be selected to
Thanks GhalibKabir @Dec 20, 2022, 3:10:00 PM, Anonymous @Dec 20, 2022, 9:47:00 PM and Shawn C @Dec 21, 2022, 3:26:00 AM
My rels are hereby ordering me to stop Submarine Mattering for a few days.
So I hafta continue responses and articles after Christmas
And have a Happy New Year
Cheers Pete
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