Anonymous has posed the questions in bolded Red with his answers in bolded Blue. Under some are Pete comments in Black.
1(a). What can Taiwan do to discourage a Chinese
blockade?
Taiwan should try get Hammerhead type smart mines with some means of placing them around Chinese (PRC) ports. I advocated for these before.
[Pete comment: Mine laying by Taiwanese (T) aircraft would be shot down by the PRC, laying by T's ancient subs would be detected by PRC subs or its fixed undersea sensors. The US method of choice is laying by large US expendable UUVs.]
1(b).
Also try to stock up on food and consumables.
[Pete comment: In 2018, T's food self-sufficiency rate was only 35%, which still may apply. T lacks natural resources and relies heavily on imported energy sources, with 98 per cent of its energy and mineral resources from overseas. Natural resources such as coal, iron ore and other metals continue to be major import items.]
2. What can the democratic world do to discourage
a Chinese blockade?
Democratic world should organize "peaceful" blockades of China traffic at choke points too far for Chinese navy to clear. Economic collateral damage would be horrific, but letting China win is worse.
[Pete comment: If PRC's blockade is restricted to the already tested ballistic missile impacts in waters surrounding T then this US led escalation could start World War Three, which would be worse.
The US still officially subscribes to the One China Policy which has not officially changed from the 1972 expression "The United States' One-China policy was first stated in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972: "the United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China.[14] The United States does not challenge that position."]
3. Would "Freedom of Navigation"
exercises be useful?
Freedom of Navigation
Operations (FONOPs) may be useful to show China that west is
united. China also probably does not
want to fire first shot at combined western fleets. Wonder if you agree.
[Pete Comment: I don't agree, after the US led Afghanistan and Iraq wars, with Australia being led by the US into another shooting war - this time that may see 1,000s of Australian casualties.]
4. If/when a blockade happens, how can Taiwanese
endurance of the blockade be maximized?
To maximize endurance,
stock up on fuel, food, munitions ASAP.
[Pete Comment: See my response to red 1(b).)
5. If/when a blockade happens, what can Taiwan
and the democratic world do to maximize the cost/risk to China?
Taiwan to mine Chinese harbors once China starts blockade would incur no additional risks to Taiwan, would not require action by west. Always liked this option. West embargo Chinese trade would be catastrophic to everyone, but Chinese victory would be worse. This should happen when China attacks any shipping near Taiwan.
6. How far out is the threat? Is there time to get more hardware, or must
we go with what we have on hand?
My gut feel (25% chance) is China may choose to move while west is preoccupied with Ukraine, which would mean very near term. This requires having a plan using equipment on hand.
25% chance happens after
Xi gets his next term [maybe in November 2022] , once he decides that west may not
make concessions and relative position to Taiwan will stop improving in his
favor. Gives us time to stock on food
and munitions.
[Pete comment: Xi may be more likely to be voted leader for another 5 years in Nov 2022 if he has become a PRC "wartime President". Xi may also wish to attack T before the unpredictable, relatively anti-PRC Trump has a chance to return to the US Presidency after the US November 2024 election.]
25% chance he thinks arms
race is in his favor, and his position will be better in 5 years, in which case
Taiwan and west need to get new kit
The actions above need to
be politically AND militarily realistic given the circumstances.
[Pete comment: Blundering into World War Three over Taiwan is unrealistic.]
6 comments:
Hi Pete,
I thought Xi made himself leader for life. What's this next term business?
As for a war, as discussed before, Xi's age, and the growing rearmament of Japan/USA/Australia/Taiwan reaching completion/higher levels of completion, by early 2030's, means an earlier invasion or armed action, could be more likely earlier, than later, imho.
eg: Taiwan receives all 220 F-16's and weapons. Gets several subs, all 24 missile boats and CG version of missile boats.
USA throws away most LCS's taking up pier space and maintenance, and has 10-15 new Constellation class frigates (though they are retiring the Tico's), Ford finally fixed, x3 Zumwalts finally fully armed, F-35's in large numbers and weapons modified for it, B-21's all built
Australia has full air force, x3 Hunter's launched or on production line, hundreds, to thousands of missiles arrive
Japan replaces most of it's 30-40 year old 4th gen jets, get's most of the frigates are replaced.
For CHina, by 2030, it's navy would be high 300's in number, but still needs yet more amphibious assault craft, imho, unless it's able to use it's 10,000 Ton Coast Guard ships for that purpose as well, which swells numbers (why do you need a 10,000 ton patrol ship?)
Andrew
I'm with you Pete
Australia cannot follow Uncle Sam into another far off war.
China has a homeground land based missile advantage over any US alliance of ships getting near Taiwan to defend Taiwan.
Sam
You refer to the 1972 Shanghai communiqué as the base of USA and the one-China policy.
I would say that the base is the Joint Communique of the United States of America and the People's Republic of China from 1979:
"The Government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of China."
https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Joint_Communiqu%C3%A9_on_the_Establishment_of_Diplomatic_Relations
I.e. USA acknowledges that China thinks that Taiwan is part of China, but in reality doesnt say if the USA thinks so too.
If I interpret the joint communiqué between PRC and Australia from 1972, Australia has a similar approach to the US, acknowledges that China thinks that Taiwan is part of China, without neither agreeing nor disagreeing with that thought.
https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au/release/transcript-3119
/C
Hi. I am the anonymous who asked the original question.
A bit of context was left out:
My original intent was to see what other people thought the best options are. Pete asked me to list my best guesses, which I don't think are very promising, but they are the best I could come up with. I would like to know if anyone can come up with better options.
As for Taiwan mining Chinese harbors, I certainly did not imply that it's a good move unless China fired first. Of course, once China imposes a blockade, that blockade will eventually succeed, unless costs for China can be made unacceptable. A Taiwanese counter blockade was the best option I could come up with. Anyone has better options?
As a default ("null") option, China can be allowed to swallow Taiwan, and go on to threaten Japan (Senkaku, etc.) and states surrounding the South China sea. This would also make it impossible at a later date to create an alliance to resist a future Chinese expansion. This is likely to foreclose future resistance.
Resistance is prohibitively dangerous. So is war, and most likely so is appeasement. Is there a realistic option to deter war? That's the question I hope to get suggestions for.
I don't expect slam dunk answers, but does anyone have some option candidates?
Ooops, I forgot to add:
Not doing anything is also doing something, with its own likely unintended consequences.
Hi Anonymouses and Andrew HOW CHINA MIGHT BEAT TAIWAN, CYBER + MISSILE BARRAGE, BELOW:
Previously Xi would be limited to 2 x 5 year terms, ie. 2012-2022, however: "On 11 November 2021, the Central Committee passed a decision that allows Xi to rule the party and the country after 20th National Congress in [November] 2022, removing the de facto two-term limit.
The last person to rule the country for more than two terms was Mao Zedong [from 1945 until death 1976.]"
Source? see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Secretary_of_the_Chinese_Communist_Party
Re "Xi's age" he is only 69 compared to Biden's 79.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
CYBER + MISSILES
Yesan earlier PRC invasion of Taiwan or armed action, could be more likely earlier, than later.
I think a PRC high volume destructive cyber onslaught of Taiwan initially.
Then months of a PRC ballistic, cruise missile creeping barrage of progressively lower altitude in waters ever closer to Taiwan's land territory. Partial aim to exhaust Taiwan's stocks of about 1,000? Patriot and other anti-missile missiles https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-ballistic_missile#Republic_of_China
After the 5th month the barrage would hit relatively unpopulated fields-mountains maybe less used ports in Taiwan
7th month - barrage on the populated parts of Taiwan
Land attack retaliation against the PRC mainland risks stumbling into World War Three.
China realises it would lose naval actions to US SSNs, SSGNs and to Japanese and maybe S Korean SSKs - so Chinese ships might remain in port.
Pete
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