China breaching Taiwan's sea and airspace in the Taiwan Strait, west of Taiwan, has been continuing for years, but the Pelosi Crisis has changed all that. Since Pelosi arrived in Taiwan and has now left it, China is holding live fire drills actually surrounding Taiwan. This is deterring airlines and shipping from traveling to-from Taiwain - effectively a blockade situation. (Map/Graphics courtesy Taiwan's Focus Taiwan).
Pelosi usurping US Presidential dominance in Taiwan-China policy has made things worse.
The Guardian reports August 4, 2022:
"...China is to begin a series of unprecedented live-fire drills that would effectively blockade the island of Taiwan, just hours after the departure of US House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, whose controversial visit this week has sparked fears of a crisis in the Taiwan strait.
Taiwan has characterised the drills, which will last until Sunday afternoon – and will include missile tests and other “military operations” as close as nine miles to Taiwan’s coastline – as a violation of international law.
While China’s military often holds live-fire exercises in the strait and surrounding seas, those planned for this week encircle Taiwan’s main island and target areas within its territorial sea.
Ahead of the drill, it said 27 Chinese warplanes had entered its air defence identification zone, including flights over the median line – the unofficial border in the Taiwan strait. On Wednesday night two suspected drones flew over Taiwan’s outlying Kinmen Island, with Taiwan’s military firing flares in response...."
2 comments:
Pete
Thanks for the clear discussion.
Unfortunately, I think this represents a trial run of what would be China's real plan to take over Taiwan in the future.
Invasion of Taiwan, Ukraine style, would be a fool-hardy venture.
But blockading Taiwan is very feasible in exactly this manner. Taiwan is only about 35% self-sufficient in food. A blockade strategy could be highly effective within say one year.
The main Taiwanese ports of Khaoisung and Taipei are closely blockaded in this operation. There is only one significant port on the Taiwanese east coast at Hualein. A convoy approaching it from the east would still be vulnerable to PLAN ships in the NE and SE live fire drill regions in the map.
There are huge air travel distances from Taiwan to countries other than PRC, and the Taiwan population is five times that of Berlin. Hence a cold war style airlift would be logistically out of the question IMO.
I am concerned there is a real risk the ships causing this blockade might stay in place.
Hi Anonymous
Yes China has so easily and quickly imposed a partial blockade of Taiwan.
No PRC vessels or aircraft have been needed, with just ballastic (and I suppose cruise) missiles doing the job.
Maybe 50%(?) of usual flights and ship movements to/from Taiwan may have been immobilised.
Issues of voiding insurance cover or at least increasing insurance premiums may be sufficient to curtail the flights/movements to/from Taiwan.
And with no deterrence of the PRC by US forces that I've heard of.
Taiwan clearly needs to increase tinned and dry food stocks to survive an extended blockade.
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