China doesn't suffer from the downsides of new party in power commotion from elections every 3-5 years. So its long term senior officials and CCP leaders can keep their eyes on the ball, One China treaties and all. My take Taiwan by missile theory may make invasion lower risk for China.
Timelines that may increase or decrease chances that China may invade Taiwan within the next 2 years include:
- Added to supply chain slowdowns China is experiencing a drought, leading to hydropower and food shortages that are slowing economic growth. Hence value of a Peoples War distraction.
- the risk Xi needs the extra popularity that a Xi created wartime Presidency would provide. This is before or after the November 2022 Party Congress. The Congress is expected to certify Xi as leader for a third term which may pan out to life.
- the US midterm Elections in November 2022 may associate Biden with losing Democrats while the Trump myth wins. China may want to take Taiwan while Biden is muddling along, ie. before November 2024 when a tougher US President might be elected.
We live in interesting times.
6 comments:
Too soon, I don't see them hastening a war due to situational problems. I don't expect the war until the 40's or 30's at the earliest.
China will seek to be self-sufficient in key inputs and technologies for a long war (in case they do not achieve a quick victory).
Hi Anon @Aug 26, 2022, 5:01:00 AM
I don't think its "too soon".
So many experts stated "Russia isn't going to invade Ukraine now" days before the invasion.
China has just demonstrated that its air, sea and missile blockade exercise earlier this month met no tangible pushback from Taiwan, Japan or the US.
That early August blockade exercise stopped many airlines (and probably ships) from reaching Taiwan.
Also while the US and its Western allies ARE distracted by Russia-Ukraine, that is another reason why China would move soon to lengthen its blockade (in time and extent (towards permanency)) to encircle Taiwan.
Regards Pete
Regardless of Taiwan, China’s efforts elsewhere in the Pacific are not slowing down. If actions speak louder than words they may already have effective control of the Solomons. They are now excluding US coast guard ships.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-26/us-coast-guard-vessel-unable-to-refuel-in-solomon-islands/101377816
Thanks Anonymous @Aug 26, 2022, 6:47:00 PM
A goodly part of the Solomons Parliament has reportedly benefitted from Chinese cash (via the Solomons PM). https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/pacific-capture:-how-chinese-money-is-buying-the/13998414
When the Solomons defaults on China's loans, territory will need to be signed over to China. China can take legal ownership of the emerging Chinese naval and air base without bothering about further monies to Solomons politicians.
A bargain in the end - for China that is - as Sri Lanka is experiencing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Sri_Lanka_relations#Hambantota_port_issue
Thanks Anon, for a A very interesting link at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-26/us-coast-guard-vessel-unable-to-refuel-in-solomon-islands/101377816
Regards Pete
Interesting, but i think the "Peoples War Distraction" would backfire on Xi. If the drought and consequent food /power issues get worse then Xi will have real problems with lots of people in the dark, hungry, in winter and looking to him for relief. They wont gain the resources FROM an invasion of Taiwan to make any actual difference to whatever occurs with that. Pride is good.....Full Bellies and a Warm Place to Sleep is better.
Hi Anonymous @Aug 29, 2022, 11:23:00 PM
Yes. Its difficult to predict what political and economic conditions prevail in China in relation to Taiwan.
I think a gradual increase in blockade period (next time 10 days?) and area surrounding Taiwan (from 1/5 sea area to 1/4 next?) is likely.
Gradual pressure increases rather than D-Day like surpise attacks are more likely. The Germans were surprised in 1944 but there are many more fixed undersea, satellite and long range radar sensors available to the US and Taiwan today to reduce surprises.
Regards Pete
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