Why are President Macron and Prime Minister Morrison still bitterly fighting over an Australian decision already made - to cancel the Attack-class program?
Macron and Morrison are actually cooperating in order to improve their chances as they go into their national elections in April 2022.
Macron knows he must look patriotic as he goes into France's first round April 2022 Presidential Election.
Equally Morrison (behind in the polls) knows he must look even more patriotic as he goes into Australia's next Federal Election likely to be held in April 2022 (or May 2022 at the latest).
Fighting with Macron has also been serving Morrison as a distraction from Morrison's poor climate policies that Morrison has brought along to the Glasgow COP26 Summit Conference.
10 comments:
2022, 2024 will be ugly in many places.
KQN
Hi Pete
A french perspective
Somewhat disagree with you
I think knowing his style , that he could not resist a "good" word at an australian press question in english
The average French voter does know that much an really blames the americans ,the british and the australian in that order.In fact in the french press he was attacked for being tough with the "small"while more accomodating with the "large" US and with Biden.Biden soft "apologies" and his declaration about his "lack of knowlewdge" was met with sarcasm, "even more if that was true".
The economical aspect of the contract is not that critical, the"huge 90 B contract !" if it ever existed was to be spend at more than 85 % in Australia, by Australians, at their request , to build nearly from scratch a submarine independant sub industry and ecosystem over 30 years..The French have a positive views (still)of Australia (if any for the majority)and understand their change of mind.They are mad at the diplomatic humiliation probably not necessary
He is hugely leading in the poll , and reminding the voters of the humiliation does not really help him
According to NATO hypersonic expert Denis Vandensavel “apparently [Russia] demonstrated some very good targeting capability at a range of 500 km which… [was] a bit of a surprise for the intel community.” Must be on Zirkon.
KQN
Hi KQN
Re your mysterious comment. I had a look and come up with Twitter reference to Denis Vandensavel etc:
Masao Dahlgren @masao_dahlgren 16h
Replying to @masao_dahlgren
Intelligence-SEC Hypersonic Defence Conference #2: NATO hypersonic expert Denis Vandensavel: without disclosing classified info, “apparently [Russia] demonstrated some very good targeting capability at a range of 500 km which… [was] a bit of a surprise for the intel community.”
So KQN are you recommending the West should speed up with its own hypersonic developments?
Pete
Hi Anonymous from France [at Nov 3, 2021, 6:40:00 PM]
Thanks for your perspective.
1. So you are saying Macron's style meant "he could not resist a "good" word at an australian press question in english"
But why did Macron use such language against Morrison? Why would Macron bother? Given you say Macron "is hugely leading in the [French polls].
Why does Macron say anything if "reminding the [French] voters of the humiliation does not really help [Macron]".
2. Thankyou. Your observation is very useful about the low value of the Attack-class deal for France, ie:
"The economical aspect of the contract is not that critical, the"huge 90 B contract !" if it ever existed was to be spend at more than 85 % in Australia, by Australians, at their request , to build nearly from scratch a submarine independant sub industry and ecosystem over 30 years..The French have a positive views (still) of Australia..."
Regards
Pete
Hi Again Anonymous from France
It occured to me that while most French might not care about the loss of the submarine deal the French government is still the majority owner of Naval Group. https://www.naval-group.com/en/governance-26 "Naval Group is a French-law Public Limited Company which, on 31 December 2020, was owned for 62.25% by the French State"
An important minority in France are Naval Group management and others in Cherbourg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherbourg_Naval_Base#Cherbourg_Arsenal who would still be professionally and financially hurt by the loss of the Australian submarine deal. This was called "the submarine deal of the century" in 2016 when Naval Group beat TKMS and the Japanese consortium. This is even though only a small proportion of the $90 Billion submarine project cost would have gone to France.
I think Macron, as the highest representative of French industry, would still have the Naval Group's interests in mind in not letting Morrison forget that Australia should not have terminated "the submarine deal of the century".
As well as Naval Group management, shipbuilding union members and the Cherbourg shipbuilding city general public vote in Presidential Elections :)
Pete
The issue for Australia will be the trade deal with the EU, which is being negotiated. France is one of the EU's main pillars, especially that Mrs. Merkel has retired.
I agree that at this current moment in time, Macron looks set to be re-elected next year. All the polls in France show him leading by a good margin. If things hold, he will be one of the 2 finalists going into the 2nd round. Worse, none of the other presidential hopefuls is viewed by French voters to be viable.
KQN
Hi KQN [your Nov 4, 2021, 5:56:00 PM]
1. If I were French and voting in their election(s) I'd vote for Macron.
Noone but Macron can sustain such an amusing argument against Scott Morrison (ScoMo) for so long.
ScoMo richly deserves someone like Macron as a verbal sparring partner.
2. Australia, under ScoMo, has pissed off (excuse my French :) China over trade for a year now. So ScoMo may as well ruin trade with the EU as well.
Pete
Re Macron
This is typical of Macron verbal style ,ie very direct w/o the classical politicians circumvolutions ,that attract the expected FLAK
To a group of unemployed youths :"you can get a job if you just cross the street !"
Youth accusing him of wearing nice italian suits:"I actually paid it myself with my previous salary , you should do the same !"
the Press in western Europe (Germany , Italy, Belgium ) ,obviuously Chinese or Russian,are convinced Macron is correct.The Morrison SMS can be read that 48 hours before Macron was in the dark..
RE Naval
not that much concern about the financial impact as the reputational impact
Remember the yards ar full for the next 10 y at least
What they claim:Naval trade Union boss in Cherbourg
No they have not exoected to receive 90 B! I was 8 B over 25 years
No the huge increase is due to currencies effects and the move from 8 to 12 subs (an optical effect to show better fixed costs absorption..not real in their mind)
Apple for Apple it was +17% over 5 years..Not good but far from abnormal with these contracts for a novel system
The delays were due essentially to tough negociations over the details of the AUS works stream (what who when how much).They claim AUS had no intention to close quickly as they had an 18 mo hidden agenda to mature. AUS Counsels were also former executive of US sub Shipyards
Thanks French Anonymous at Nov 5, 2021, 12:41:00 AM
Macron, like Boris Johnson, sounds like quite a popularist joker.
Thanks for all your information about Naval Group's submarine build at Cherbourg and the low financial impact of losing the Attack-class contract.
I understand that Naval Group will be busy completing the:
- 5 remainingg Barracuda Suffren-class SSNs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barracuda-class_submarine_(France)#Boats
and
- designing, laying down and launching the 4 x SNLE 3G (Sous-Marin Nucléaire Lanceur d'Engins de Troisieme Génération) ie. third generation SSBNs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G
However the SSN and SSBN activities are for Naval Group's Nuclear Submarine Division to work on.
For Naval Group's Conventional (diesel-electric) Submarine Division the loss of the Australian order would leave a gap. That division may need to win the following orders, for:
- 4 medium-large submarines to the Netherland's
- 6 (post-MESMA, 2nd generation AIP) Scorpenes to India, under Project-75(I), and
- 3 or 4 Scorpenes to Poland under Project Orka.
Regards
Pete
Post a Comment