A great essay by distinguished academic and researcher Valérie Niquet for The Diplomat,
November 6, 2021, at https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/chinas-nuclear-gambit/
November 6, 2021, at https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/chinas-nuclear-gambit/
As she is writing at that essential reading paysite here is the first sentence only:
"Don’t be distracted by the aerial
incursions and naval build-ups - the real action is China’s
nuclear build-up,
in the hopes of deterring any U.S. intervention in a regional conflict."
4 comments:
For this very reason, it is best to provide Taiwan with deterrents completely under their own control, so China cannot strip Taiwan of its allies, then attack it with impunity.
One such hypothetical system would be XLUUV's that can lay AI equipped, networked mobile mines outside Chinese ports. This would allow Taiwan to establish a counter blockade that may last even beyond the conquest of the island itself. The point is to undermine CCP stability.
Of course, the Russians can supply many things from the north, but Taiwan needs to make the blockade as strong as possible. Perhaps something can be done to belt and road railway bridges.
This sort of a defense is not a sure thing, but it may be the best deterrent available. Does anyone have a better idea?
If China can deter Taiwan allies in case of war, Taiwan may need own submarine fleet. (As indeed it is trying to build.)
The link below is a Dutch design for a purely electric LIB submarine that works especially well for navies with minimal technological capabilities but short range missions. I think something like this would work well off the Chinese coast.
https://naviesworldwide.com/navy-news/do-conventional-submarines-need-diesel-engines/
China is upping considerably its nuclear arsenal, like tripling or quadrupling silos, warheads, launchers. It has increased considerably its DF-26 inventories. There are 2 different hypersonic boost glide vehicles, the DF-17 and the WU-14 with an un-named booster. The FOBS may be the WU-14, we do not know.
It is also building fake aircraft carriers and destroyers, movable on rails, in the Xinjiang desert to practice.
Not that anyone is looking forward to that day, but prospects of a conflict seem to increase with time.
Should Australia consider hypersonic weapons? I think it is unavoidable. We do not choose war, but that does not mean war is not choosing us. Better become a hedgehog.
KQN
Australia is already heavily invested in hypersonic R&D. Google HIFiRE.
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