Why Indonesia Wants Large Frigates from Italy.

Comments by Shawn C. (below) inspired me to forget Sydney's Covid scares and post again after a SubMatts lull. 

Submarine Matters went offline as one was becoming a little tired of some paysites skimming SubMatt's material for free then monetizing it by various methods.

On to frigates. Why, after several years producing 2 x newish 2,400 tonne Sigma light frigates (with 6 more planned), is Indonesia after much larger frigates? I (Pete) reckon,  Indonesia's light frigates may have been a match or superior to all other Southeast Asian (SEA) navies (Singapore’s 3,200 tonne Formidable-class excepted). The Sigmas could deter Malaysia from pressing Ambalat seafloor oil claims and defend Indonesia's fishing claims against other SEA nations.

But the Sigma's are far inferior in confrontations with ever larger, more formidable ships, being deployed recently, eg:

-  Chinese destroyers (like the 7,000+ tonne Type 052Cs ) and frigates,
-  China has more recenetly escalated to the 13,000 tonne Type 055 cruiser sized destoyer
-  the PRC's China Coast Guard has more than 40 x 3,325 ton destroyer sized cutters (up
   to 12,000 tons) mounting serious main guns, and capable of deploying missile or
   lightweight torpedo armed (notionally) "civilian" helicopters.
-  ships from Indonesia's near southern neighbour are growing. Specifically Australia's latest
   7,000 tonne Hobart class destroyers.
-  In the pipeline are even larger Australian warships in the shape of the 9 x almost 9,000
    tonne Hunter-class frigates, on order.

Indonesia is no longer satisfied with a small ship/gunboat surface navy largely limited to anti-piracy, smugglers, other policing and fisheries. There is a surface-ship-size arms race in the Indo-Pacific. Indonesia doesn't want to be dominated by the new large ships being built around it. 

On June 10, 2021 Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri announced that it signed a contract with Indonesia’s Ministry of Defense to supply Indonesia with 8 frigates, namely:
-  6 x new maybe 7,000 tonne FREMM frigates and
-  2 x 40 year old 3,000 tonne Maestrale-class frigates (probably the
   modernised Grecale and Libeccio ) after these Maestrales retire from the Italian Navy.

Fincantieri indicates it will be “prime contractor” for all 8 vessels implying all major work will be done in Italy. But Fincantieri also mentions (unclear) involvement of Indonesia’s
PT-PAL (main shipyard at Surabaya, Java, Indonesia). Maybe Fincantieri and PT-PAL will each do several sections of the FREMMs (similar to the previous Sigma construction program with Damen of the Netherlands). 

Also unclear is whether Indonesia will even more suddenly and massively expand its Navy through buying:

-  8 new frigates from Japan (Pete Comment - surely not given Japan's lack of large naval
   export orders and stronger competition from Fincantieri's proven FREMM export
   product)  
-  some in Indonesia have also pressed for a purchase of up to 9 Improved Jang Bogos 
   aka Indonesian Nagapasa-class submarines designed in South Korea. The most recent one
   KRI Alugoro was assembled by PT-PAL at Surabaya. More Nagapasas, built at PT-PAL,
   will likely follow.
-  In any case submarine replacements for the tragically sunk KRI Nanggala and what must
   now be the equally dangerous elderly "sistersub" KRI Cakra is a pressing Indonesian
   necessity.

Like India (the endless, ongoing MMRCA (1 and 2.0) and Project-75(I) selections) Indonesia is notorious for different interests haggling for years to get the best deals. For Indonesia it has been with different factions shopping for "commissions" from several aircraft or naval suppliers simultaneously. A deal is only proven when weapon systems have actually been delivered. 

In that regard there appears to be mixed Indonesian messages over the frigate deal. On June 10, when Fincantieri announced the deal, Indonesia's Berita Benar (trans "True News") reported: 

...the Japan Times daily reported in November [2020] that Japan was in talks to export a number of units of the latest generation of destroyers and frigates for the Indonesian Navy." 

"Spokesman for the Minister of Defense, Dahnil Anzar Simanjuntak, refused to confirm the signing of the [Fincantieri] purchase contract...

...[Marapi Consulting & Advisory senior military researcher, Beni Sukadis] “This [FREMM] agreement is quite surprising because it is predicted that the price of this ship is not cheap. Now the only thing we are waiting for is when the government is willing to pay the down payment ," 

[and]...Head of the Information Service of the Indonesian Navy, First Admiral Julius Widjojono, hoped that the Ministry of Defense would not acquire used ships [the 2 Maestrale-class frigates] from the Italian Navy."

Years before similar Indonesian mixed messages concerned submarine purchasing plans. At times since 1977, when Indonesia ordered the 2 Cakri-class Type 209 subs, then later bought South Korean Improved Jang Bogo/Type 209 variants, Indonesian admirals, officials, businessmen and politicians continued to express interest and host visits from French and Russian submarine sellers. It is suspected that commissions changed hands for each expression of interest. Indonesia is down there with some dodgy African countries in being perceived a highly corrupt country.

SHAWN C's COMMENTS

Shawn C sees the sudden size jump from Indonesia's Sigma light frigates to medium-heavy FREMM frigates as surprising. Shawn adds though, that the FREMM's are in mass production, so cost will not be as high as the USN's future FREMM variant, and spares should be plenty. Indonesia's FREMM are likely to be armed with Aster 30 long range SAMs and maybe Thales Herakles radar?

Shawn comments further: Indonesia's 5 x near 3,000 ton Ahmad Yani-class frigates are all 40 years old, so buying two 40 year old ex-Italian Maestrale class doesn't seem to make sense. That is unless Indonesia has urgent ASW holes to fill, which is highly likely. Shawn feels the Indonesian Navy's ASW assets are almost non-existent. 

Shawn is surprised India hasn't done a deal with Indonesia for ASW assets - it's obvious the PLAAN plans to send their subs into the Indian Ocean, and they can't do it submerged through the Malacca Straits or Sunda Straits, so they have to head further South, around the Lombok Straits. 

[Pete adds: in extremis Chinese SSKs, refueled at sea, may even avoid the Indonesian straits by going south of Australia, through the Southern (near Antarctic) Ocean. This may be a viable prospect for China's longer range, much faster moving, SSNs.]