When there is this kind of crisis some countries feel they can take advantage of US "peacemaking". Usually the US Lame-duck presidential period presents opportunities, but a very ill US President even more so.
Countries can most quickly boost border tensions or take the prize they have coveted for so long.
Possible scenarios include:
1. China invades Taiwan
2. China being much more assertive in South China and East China Seas, eg. China cracking down on
US FONOPs.
3. China cracks down even more in Hong Kong, eg. 100s-1,000s of arrests rather than just a few.
4. Heightened North Korean border tensions with South Korea.
5. Increased Russia boosting of Ukrainian civil war, Russia advancing into Baltic States or
6. Russian and/or Belarus authoritarian Government violently "restoring order" against democratic
Belarussian protesters.
7. Many Middle Eastern possibilities - including Iraq, Syria, Israel, Iran, blowing up oil facilities, Saudi-
Yemen, etc. Oil rise spikes.
8. Increased skirmishing on India-China border, India-Pakistan skirmishing and airstrikes.
Many other opportunistic scenarios while US "peacemaking" is sleeping and while other countries, and the UN, are focussing/reacting to US happenings.
10 comments:
(After correction)
Hi Pete
In this situation, roles of Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are critical in domestic and diplomatic affairs, respectively.
Pompeo will visit Asia in October (Quad meeting in Japan, Mongolia, South Korea). Speech for United Nation Organization by President Moon Jae-inn on Sept/23/2020, in which the end of Korean War without abandoning nuclear weapons of North Korea was suggested, made furious U.S. [1, 2, 3]
[1] (Daily Shincho), Suzuoki, https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2020/09291700/?all=1&page=3
[2](Voice of America), Michael Green, Vice President of CSIS said
“With all respect, I think President Moon has it backwards: Declaring an end to the Korea War is not the key to achieving denuclearization and the establishment of a permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula. Achieving the denuclearization of North Korea and establishing a viable peace are the necessary conditions for permanently ending the Korean War.”
[3] (Center for Security Policy, Sept/24/2020), according to Grant Newsham, who has close relationship with White House. https://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/2020/09/24/fraud-in-south-koreas-april-2020-election-it-probably-happened-and-is-a-big-deal-for-the-united-states/
“A further objective of this consolidation of power, so the theory goes, is to unify South Korea with North Korea, and to align South Korea (and a unified Korea）with the People’s Republic of China – with whom there is seen a ‘common destiny.’
・Although unstated, since a majority of South Koreans currently oppose the idea – as well as the idea of unifying with the North – the ultimate aim of Moon and associates is to delink South Korea from the United States and remove U.S. forces from the Korean peninsula.”
Regards
Hi Anonymous [your October 3, 2020 at 1:55 PM]
Thanks for your comments on Pence and Pompeo's domestic and foreign policy importance particulary relating to the Korean Peninsula.
I would say that Trump's Covid absence will cause major revisions in Pence and Pompeo's plans. Pence will need to do many of Trump's daily jobs - such as receiving the full spoken daily intelligence briefings.
Pompeo might not spend a much time on the N and S Korea. Pompeo may spend more time in Washington, in case unexpected international crises (brought on by Trump's absence) occur.
Regards
Pete
Supporting my contention that the US is taking Trump's Covid, as a potential international crisis trigger, seriously:
Is an excellent article by Abhijnan Rej for the The Diplomat (paysite) on October 02, 2020 https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/us-doomsday-planes-make-their-presence-felt-as-trump-goes-into-quarantine/
"US Doomsday Planes Make Their Presence Felt As Trump Goes Into Quarantine"
The Pentagon is keen to tell America’s adversaries it remains prepared for all contingencies, presidential ill-health notwithstanding."
[this concerns the deployment of] E-6B aircraft on alert status. Boeing 707 variant E-6Bs being "operated by the U.S. Navy and serve as a crucial command, control and communications link between the National Command Authority — the president and the secretary of defense and their designated successors and alternatives who can order a military strike, including a nuclear attack – and nuclear missiles onboard SSBNs, but also land-based ICBMs..."
"The fact that not one but two E-6Bs were suddenly spotted around the time the world heard of Trump’s infection serves as strong evidence that this was not a coincidence. As Hogan himself tweeted, the U.S. Strategic Command, custodians of the country’s nuclear weapons and delivery systems, wanted “them to be seen,” as a signal to adversaries that its business as usual when it comes to nuclear deterrence, despite the commander-in-chief’s ill health."
"While it is extremely unlikely that U.S. adversaries would launch a nuclear strike simply because the president is coronavirus-positive, one need not be a professional worrier to note that latest development in the White House, coupled with political convulsions in the U.S. and global disarray following the pandemic, can embolden other powers to embark on misadventures. For example, it is not known to what extent China’s push in eastern Ladakh was out of a perceived opportunity as India grappled with the pandemic."
See much more of this excellent Diplomat article, from Abhijnan Rej, at https://thediplomat.com/2020/10/us-doomsday-planes-make-their-presence-felt-as-trump-goes-into-quarantine/
If Pence gets infected, he was sitting in plenty of photos near people who now tested positive, then it gets murky pretty fast.
I believe we should put to rest the notion of denuclearization of NK. It is just too late for that to happen. I am not aware of any nuclear state on this earth agreeing to turn off the faucet so far. It is much more likely that many others will be joining the club in the coming decade.
As to a Unified Korea sharing a common destiny with China, clearly the author has not read any Korean history books. Of course, when you share a border with China, you will need to be tactful and careful with geostrategic ramifications, since you do not want to get into a war, unless it is your nation's independence and territorial integrity that are on the table.
KQN
Hi Anonymous [at October 4, 2020 at 5:15 AM]
1. I agree North Korea won't denuclearize (within the next 10-20 years). Agree there is little likelihood of N and S Korea unifying and unlikely S Korea will expel US troops within the next 10 years.
2. Re: You are "not aware of any nuclear state on this earth agreeing to turn off the faucet so far."
South Africa did "turn off the faucet".
see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction indicates:
"From the 1960s to the 1990s, South Africa pursued research into weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear,[2]...weapons. Six nuclear weapons were assembled.[3] Before the anticipated changeover to a majority-elected African National Congress–led government in the 1990s, the South African government dismantled all of its nuclear weapons, the first state in the world which voluntarily gave up all nuclear arms it had developed itself.
...South Africa ended its nuclear weapons programme in 1989. All the bombs (six constructed and one under construction) were dismantled and South Africa acceded to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons when South African Ambassador to the United States Harry Schwarz acceded to the treaty in 1991.
On 19 August 1994, after completing its inspection, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that one partially completed and six fully completed nuclear weapons had been dismantled."
3. I agree "others will be joining the club in the coming decade." I'd place Iran and South Korea high on the list.
Regards
Pete
Re: Supporting point "6." in my article above about Russia supporting the Belarusian Government, comes the news:
"Russia to deploy Syria mercenaries to Belarus to protect Lukashenko, says report" of October 2, 2020 at https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20201002-russia-to-deploy-syria-mercenaries-to-belarus-to-protect-lukashenko-says-report/
"Russia is planning to recruit Syrian mercenaries to deploy to Belarus to protect dictator Alexandr Lukashenko, a Syrian news outlet has reported.
[COMMENT: AS IT COMES FROM A "SYRIAN NEWS OUTLET" IT WOULD NEED TO BE CONFIRMED BY WESTERN NEWS OR INTEL AGENCIES!]
"According to a source with knowledge of the case who informed Syrian opposition newspaper Zaman Al-Wasl, Russia is to train and send fighters from Syria to Belarus through the Russian military contractor and mercenary Wagner Group.
The source reportedly did not give details of the exact numbers of fighters being recruited or their potential salaries, but revealed that Russia is focusing particularly on their capabilities in urban warfare by studying their criminal records throughout the ongoing nine-year-long Syrian conflict."
"Zaman Al-Wasl did, however, say that Russia is aiming to recruit over 10,000 Syrians from areas under the control of President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime, with the majority being from areas such as Sweida, Homs, Hama, Deir Ez-Zor and coastal areas." [THIS PARAGRAPH IS PARTICULARLY IN NEED OF CONFIRMATION AS 10,000 MAINLY ARAB[?] MERCENARIES IN EUROPEAN BELARUS SOUNDS UNLIKELY.]
India China issues have been boiling for sometime and chinese opinion that overtures since 2014 had consistently failed led to this western LAC problem, though I think China is probably beginning to regret the overplay, despite the open,tough 1959 line only posture.
any misadventure by pakistan is likely to be simply solved by cutting off dollar funds via US sanctions, plus they are on the Saudi sh*t list in any case. This along with the real possibility of pain via the FATF should keep them quiet... regular firings across the LoC will sadly continue....though India does understand the pakistanis are slavish lackeys and will do something if china wishes them to...I pity their alms dependent, utterly self respect lacking 'mercenary/menial labor/bawd house' supplier status in S.Asia. you should read some of the blood curdling abuses the arabs heap on S.Asian and SE Asian labor.
(Indira Gandhi's needless generosity in returning Haji Pir pass in 1965-66 and 'reckless' generosity of not annexing some of the Western parts of Ladakh like Skardu and possibly Gilgit as well in 1971 is what is now proving a pain). IMHO, she made the same mistake that Prithivraj Chauhan made in 1192 in Tarain, outside Delhi when he forgave Mahmud of Ghor, only for Mahmud to come back, win by treachery and blind Chauhan, take full power by 1204.
Thanks GhalibKabir, for filling us in on the history behind the ongoing China-India border confrontation.
Its difficult to see any prospect for improvement - especially with China seeking to expand in all directions.
Regards
Pete
Hi Anonymous
My October 3, 2020 at 2:23 PM comment in this thread predicting "that Trump's Covid absence will cause major revisions in Pence and Pompeo's plans...Pompeo might not spend much time on N and S Korea. Pompeo may spend more time in Washington"
has now been confirmed by the news, in the NYT, on October 4 https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/04/world/mike-pompeo-cuts-visits-to-south-korea-and-mongolia-from-his-asia-trip.html that:
"Pompeo will cut short a trip to Asia this week, canceling stops in South Korea and Mongolia but continuing with a visit to Japan [for the Quad]".
Regards
Pete
Pete@October 5, 2020 at 1:47 PM
Very true. Even in the Ladakh area, China is being 'cute' and adjusting the LAC 1959 claim 18-20 kilometers into India from where it was on 7 Nov. 1959.
Also, if the claims were to be truly fair, China will have to go further east as per India as the 1956-1959 letters between PM Nehru and PM Zhou are very clear as Zhou clearly describes what china loftily calls the 'traditional, customary' borders of china. North of the chinese 1956 claim line was always chinese suzerain territory and accepting claims is quite straightforward. the 1959-60 claim line is a big problem and is not a fair claim.
So an additional 5-7,000 sq. km needs to be vacated in Ladakh and in all fairness, in exchange, India needs to give away some parts of Arunachal pradesh including some areas that have never been fully surveyed by the Surveyor General of India. That would be 1-2 districts in the extreme north east of India and could lead to a 3-4,000 sq.km loss which I think would be ok.
I think India can also broadly concede chinese claims in the central segment of the LAC in uttarakhand state as long as China can stop bothering Bhutan. So of the 28-29 friction points, 10-12 points can be broadly granted to china without much issue. China could show some flexibility in Sikkim-Bhutan gap called Chumbi Valley and in Ladakh in exchange.
All in all, China will still walk away with 30-40,000 sq.km (probably 35,000 is certain). Considering that is 1% of India's territory, it is a big concession.
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