In response to Anonymous's interesting comments of July 1, 2020 that it is an unfavourable time for China to invade Taiwan, I say:
Thanks Anonymous
Taking your points in turn:
i) true that China is unpopular with all those regional countries and with the US (but not with Russia). Being so unpopular China has nothing to lose, in terms of popularity, by invading Taiwan.
ii) The whole world knows already that Coronavirus started in Wuhan, China. Disease has little to do with invasion strategy (including timing).
iii) China's bad economic state is indeed a consideration. However if China launched a successful invasion it would eventually save $Billions by standing down its anti-Taiwan military forces AND gaining the industrial capacity of Taiwan (including seizing what you say is "the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)").
iv) China's aging problem (cost to the Chinese economy) is only going to get worse over the years. Best to invade soon before the aging problem gets much worse.
Unlikely Putin would go to war with China because of comparatively minor China-India border skirmish. China is more important to Russia economically than India is https://www.advantour.com/russia/economy/trade.htm#:~:text=Major%20trading%20partners%20of%20Russia,%2C%20timber%2C%20machinery%20and%20equipment.
Russia has been exporting submarines and high tech aircraft to China for years. Russia has been exporting the S-400 missile system to China since 2018 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system#China
Re: "Recent clash between Chinese and Indian troops in Himalayan border area might suggest arbitrary behaviour of PLA." The clash and previous border tension was/is an extended political and public event that the Party has studied closely and seems to be on top of. eg. see this of June 22, 2020:
It must be remembered Chinese leader Xi Jinping is Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) which directs the PLA. Below that Generals and Admirals of the CMC head military formations down to divisional level.
Below Division many Communist Party members in the officer corps report to the party. More importantly Political Commissars may operate down to army company level. This July 3, 2020 USNI source is about Commissars on individual PLA-N ships (and subs) and PLA-AF squadrons but the same would apply to army:
It may be a favourable time for invasion of Taiwan while Trump is making the US internationally unpopular and distrusted. If Trump loses the November 3, 2020 Election the "lame duck period" that ends on January 20, 2021(?) may be a propitious time for actions by China.
BUT the superior strength of the US military in conventional and nuclear terms AND much larger US economy makes invasion risky for China.
The most dangerous condition for Taiwan may be when China has a larger economy than the US permitting China to sustain a war longer than the US.
Pete
Thanks Anonymous
Taking your points in turn:
i) true that China is unpopular with all those regional countries and with the US (but not with Russia). Being so unpopular China has nothing to lose, in terms of popularity, by invading Taiwan.
ii) The whole world knows already that Coronavirus started in Wuhan, China. Disease has little to do with invasion strategy (including timing).
iii) China's bad economic state is indeed a consideration. However if China launched a successful invasion it would eventually save $Billions by standing down its anti-Taiwan military forces AND gaining the industrial capacity of Taiwan (including seizing what you say is "the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)").
iv) China's aging problem (cost to the Chinese economy) is only going to get worse over the years. Best to invade soon before the aging problem gets much worse.
Unlikely Putin would go to war with China because of comparatively minor China-India border skirmish. China is more important to Russia economically than India is https://www.advantour.com/russia/economy/trade.htm#:~:text=Major%20trading%20partners%20of%20Russia,%2C%20timber%2C%20machinery%20and%20equipment.
Russia has been exporting submarines and high tech aircraft to China for years. Russia has been exporting the S-400 missile system to China since 2018 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_missile_system#China
Re: "Recent clash between Chinese and Indian troops in Himalayan border area might suggest arbitrary behaviour of PLA." The clash and previous border tension was/is an extended political and public event that the Party has studied closely and seems to be on top of. eg. see this of June 22, 2020:
Gen. Zhao Zongqi, head of the Western Theater
Command and among the few combat veterans still serving in the People's
Liberation Army, approved the operation along the contested border region of
northern India and southwestern China, a source familiar with the assessment
says on the condition of anonymity. Zhao, who has overseen prior standoffs with
India, has previously expressed concerns that China must not appear weak to
avoid exploitation by the United States and its allies, including in New Delhi,
the source says, and saw the faceoff last week as a way to "teach India a
lesson."
It must be remembered Chinese leader Xi Jinping is Chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) which directs the PLA. Below that Generals and Admirals of the CMC head military formations down to divisional level.
Below Division many Communist Party members in the officer corps report to the party. More importantly Political Commissars may operate down to army company level. This July 3, 2020 USNI source is about Commissars on individual PLA-N ships (and subs) and PLA-AF squadrons but the same would apply to army:
"The radically different command
structure from the American hierarchy of a single skipper at the top also puts
into play questions about “what is the party trying to achieve” by having a
destroyer sail dangerously close to another vessel or an aircraft buzz a naval
formation.
Zi Yang, co-author of “Party on
the Bridge: Political Commissars in the Chinese Navy,” said President Xi
Jin-ping “has tipped the balance a little more to the commissar” over the
military commander in operations of a submarine, surface vessel or aircraft
squadron to ensure adherence to party loyalty across the military."
It may be a favourable time for invasion of Taiwan while Trump is making the US internationally unpopular and distrusted. If Trump loses the November 3, 2020 Election the "lame duck period" that ends on January 20, 2021(?) may be a propitious time for actions by China.
BUT the superior strength of the US military in conventional and nuclear terms AND much larger US economy makes invasion risky for China.
The most dangerous condition for Taiwan may be when China has a larger economy than the US permitting China to sustain a war longer than the US.
Pete
11 comments:
I'll write one or more articles next week on Australia's "2020 Defence Strategic Update" that was released on July 1, 2020.
Pete
I very much doubt that China would make any cuts in the defence budget in case they successfully manages to invade and occupy Taiwan. The goal for China seems more to be the new superpower in the world, taking over the crown from the US.
If China gets hold of Taiwan, you can count on that Taiwan will be a very militarised island, since it opens up access to PLAN and PLAAF to the central Pacific, past the first island chain. It would also give China possibilities to threaten Japan, especially Okinawa and the Senkaku islands, not to mention that they can cut Japan's (and for that matter South Korea's) SLOC.
The pressure on the Philippines would also increase and if the invasion was successful, it might make the CCP even more cocky and arrogant on the world scene, with more conflicts with other countries.
Regarding the access to Taiwan's industry, that would depend on how much heavy fighting would occur during the invasion. If the industries are turned into rubble and the workers are dead, injured or have fled the Taiwan, well, then the Taiwanese industry would be just an empty shell.
/C
The single biggest deterrent IMO of a Chinese invasion is the risk of failure - not because of the possibility of US intervention but simply amphibious operations by nature are inherently risky. The invasion fleet is highly vulnerable to ASMs. There will be no chance of element of surprise as any marshaling of an invasion fleet will be highly visible.
The CCP regime is a narcissistic organisation like any totalitarian state and ultimately its own survival is paramount. The risk of sinking ships and drawing Chinese soldiers are bad optics and detrimental to its own survival.
That said, the ROC needs to do its part by increasing its defense spending. At 2.3 % of GDP it is basically half of what Israel spends for its security needs. Another $11 Billion a year can buy a lot of toys especially ASMs.
Brumby
In practice, what would a Chinese "hard military option" look like?
It will not be Normandy, with amphibious vessels streaming over the horizon onto Taiwan island while being hammered by artillery and ATGM as the water turns red. The PLA will not (probably never!) fight FIBUA in Taiwan, nor will major land battles occur in Taiwanese population centres.
This is because the PLA as an arm of the CCP rather than the State, has to achieve certain political objectives in any offensive campaign. If the CCP is to prosecute an offensive military campaign, the largest possible scale campaign would be one to effect a military takeover of the island. However, such a takeover is meaningless and very obviously counter to the goal of "returning Taiwan by 2025", as President Xi promised, if it results in major destruction of Taiwanese capital (capital as in capitalist) and Taiwanese lives; in that case Taiwan would no longer be a political goal, but an object of wanton destruction and a barren island. The PLA's objective is to militarily make the Taiwanese people become PRC Chinese citizens by force, following CCP and PRC edicts, and NOT to destroy Taiwan.
Furthermore, suppose the PRC were to bomb a ROCA base, leading to lots of conscripts or even just ROCA regulars dying. Imagine the martyrs they will create. Imagine what the population will feel, and how hard pressed the military and political leadership will be to fight back. Any invasion or military action that results in large numbers of Taiwanese deaths will drive the Taiwanese people away, and cause their hardliner factions to dig in their heels, possibly leading to a full declaration of independence as a state other than the ROC. If the Taiwan declares independence outside of the existing ROC framework (Tsai dancing around with "already being an independent country" is a good move but doesn't count), then the PRC will be forced by its fear of public opinion to act. At this point, the Taiwanese however outnumbered and outgunned will be committed to defending themselves, and the bloodbath that ensues will obviate the CCP's political objectives of "returning Taiwan".
Therefore, any campaign by the PLA to capture Taiwan must generate as few Taiwanese casualties as possible, while still making them become PRC Chinese. Also, simply destroying their ability to resist is insufficient; the PLA must be able to impose some method of exerting the CCP and PRC's rule over Taiwan. The solution to these seemingly conflicting aims is to erode the Taiwanese willingness to resist, either through positive reinforcement or negative reinforcement. The PLA must do something to 1) cause the government of the day to surrender and offer terms 2) or bring down the government via a coup which will then offer terms 3) make the Taiwanese people accept, however grudgingly, the loss of their Taiwan/ROCness and new PRCness, a task made more difficult by Hong Kong's fate under PRC rule. 4) and do this without creating too many martyrs.
It must also do this without any international intervention, because the PLA will quite rapidly fail in Taiwan if pitted against the USN, or even a local coalition of navies e.g. the JMSDF and RAN, with the ROCN. China is also vulnerable to attacks on shipping and pipelines, because of their limited domestic oil reserves as well as their reliance on imported food, opening up the possibility of an effective second front blockade on the PRC herself.
The PLA has to consider not only how to minimise their own casualties, but how to minimise Taiwanese casualties.
Furthermore, the CCP bigwigs know that if they try anything military and then appear to fail (alienating Taiwan or creating too many People's Heroes), they will swing from the lamp posts by noon.
On the scale of military options, the PLA can therefore do the following. 1) They can try to blockade Taiwan by suppressing the ROCN, and destroying shipping, controlling the waters around Taiwan. 2) They can attempt to retake Kinmen and the Matsu islands, and other small islands controlled by Taiwan as a show of force. Those are not likely to be heavily defended, and probably will not be reinforced if a surprise attack is undertaken. 3) They can attempt a surgical strike on Taiwan island, with the objective of destroying specifically their C4I infrastructure, their airpower, their AA and antisurface missile emplacements, and generally causing chaos, again as a show of force.
Now the problem facing the PLA is that it has inadequate long range precision strike capability, inadequate rapid coordination capability, and not enough "speed" and "stealth" to mass and pull this off before a response is fielded. Whatever it does, it has to do very fast, and very forcefully, like the air campaigns in GW2 and GW1, only squared and cubed in intensity. It is not limited by amphibious capability, or landing craft, or LHDs or whatever. It is simply limited by time, precision and shock. It has a tiny window of opportunity, and through various methods, not all military, Taiwan can defend herself and the ROC's sovereignty simply by making the window too small to squeeze through, and attritting enough PRC capabilities to embarrass the CCP.
The disturbing thing is that this sounds exactly like the US's problem... I have always said that the PRC and the USA are more alike than most seem to realise.
Taiwan cannot be taken militarily today, nor in the near future, because the PLA lacks the capabilities to force a political settlement with military action. The difference in superiority is simply much too small, and with the end of the chaotic post Chiang democracy, the greens seem to have gathered the political will and bashed enough heads to work on Taiwan's problems.
Hi Pete
If China really make USA furious such as invasion of Taiwan who has 5G technology, USA will definitely stop USD selling to Hongkong (= put an end to the peg) [1] providing an immediate collapse of Hongkong economy which is a gate of China’s economy. The following results are expected; i) collapse of Hongkong dollar (HKD), ii) decline of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, iii) termination of Greater Bay Area scheme, iv) collapse of Hongkong as an export gate of China, v)collapse of Macau Pataca which is pegged by HKD, vi) decline of Macau economy and vii) escape of wealthy class from Hongkong, as well as condemnation of US bond which China has and freeing assets which leaders of CCP hide in USA. China never economically wins USA.
[1] ehttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests-markets-peg-explain/explainer-dollar-peg-is-critical-to-hong-kong-amid-us-threats-china-worries-idUSKBN23A1JJ
“Explainer: Dollar peg is critical to Hong Kong amid U.S. threats, China worries”
Regards
Hi /C, Brumby, retortPouch and Anonymous
Thanks for all your comments.
I'll reply in more detail tomorrow.
Regards
Pete
Hi /C, Brumby, retortPouch and Anonymous
From reading all of your good comments I'll limit my comments until Monday to saying now is not a good time for China to invade Taiwan, because:
- the PRC regime has just failed in the eyes of much PRC public opinion because the regime did not stop COVID-19 quickly enough before many PRC people died (in numbers probably much higher than the CCP-PRC admits).
- COVID-19 has just caused the PRC economy to actually contract after 3 decades of rapid growth. With the guaratee of growth being part of the Social Contract that ordinary PRC citizens tolerate as a benefit of one-party CCP rule.
- any invasion of Taiwan this year would likely cause many more PRC deaths and further contraction of the PRC economy due to international economic sanctions, Western Navy blockades of PRC SLOCs and destruction of oil/gas pipelines into the PRC.
The political "carrot" of one country, two systems, has been strongly demolished with the PRC's enforced end of much of Hong Kong's special two systems legal and political status. So Taiwanese would be under no illusion that a two-systems special Taiwanese status may be but a short-term period until the onset of one-country, one-system.
Trump may dearly love a LIMITED conflict with the PRC or at least a Taiwan Scare as a rally-around-the-President international crisis to help his reelection prospects.
More on Monday for medium-long term considerations, including military operational, blockade and China's nominal GDP exceeding the US's.
Regards
Pete
Indeed, the carrot is gone and the PRC is left with the stick. The DPP's stunning election performance over the past months despite good performance by KMT candidates in their constituencies should be proof enough.
Hi Pete
USA takes the first step toward approval of Taiwan [1].
[1] https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-health-secretary-visit-taiwan-prompting-angry-response-china
“US Health Secretary to Visit Taiwan, Prompting Angry Response from China”
Regards
Thanks Anonymous [at August 7, 2020 at 9:06 AM]
For https://www.voanews.com/usa/us-health-secretary-visit-taiwan-prompting-angry-response-china
It will be interesting how China complains while US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar is in Taiwan.
Cheers
Pete
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