Following Submarine Matters’ article "Some
See Serious Stresses in US-South Korean Alliance" of September
18, 2019 Anonymous commented (with
some improved English editing by Pete) on November 20, 2019:
The South Korean (SK) President
Moon Jae-in rejected maintenance of the General
Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) (the
deadline is November 23, 2019) in talks with a US delegation (led by US Defense
Secretary Mark Esper). The Special Measures Agreement (SMA) negotiation with the US is also not working at all [1, 2]. Withdrawal from the GSOMIA and a breakdown in negotiations on
the SMA are likely to happen. According to Japanese academic Takashi Suzuki,
the situation on withdrawal of US-SK alliance is deteriorating faster than he expected
and will be soon critical [3].
[1] “Moon: Difficult to reconsider GSOMIA termination”,
NHK-WORLD, Nov/15/2019
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20191115_45/
SK President Moon Jae-in says it would be difficult to review the country's decision to scrap the GSOMIA intelligence-sharing pact with Japan, as long as Japan keeps its export controls against SK in place.
https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20191115_45/
SK President Moon Jae-in says it would be difficult to review the country's decision to scrap the GSOMIA intelligence-sharing pact with Japan, as long as Japan keeps its export controls against SK in place.
[2] ”U.S. envoy cuts short troop funding negotiations in South
Korea”, Jen Kwon, CBS NEWS, Nov/19/2019, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-south-korea-funding-sma-american-military-presence-kim-jong-uns-deadline-looms-2019-11-19/
Shortly after James DeHart, a US State Department senior advisor, walked out of the talks on November 17, 2019, top SK negotiator, Jeong Eun Bo, said there was "a significant difference between the overall US proposal and the principles that [SK wants] to engage in."
Shortly after James DeHart, a US State Department senior advisor, walked out of the talks on November 17, 2019, top SK negotiator, Jeong Eun Bo, said there was "a significant difference between the overall US proposal and the principles that [SK wants] to engage in."
The Special Measures
Agreement (SMA) is the formal document that lays out US-SK cost sharing for
the American military deployment in SK.
[3] ”Moon Jae-in declared GSOMIA war against JSA. Shift from
“Boiling Frog” tactics to early withdrawal of US-South Korea Alliance.” by Japanese academic Takashi Suzuki, DAILY SHINCHO,
Nov/18/2019, https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2019/11181631/?all=1
[translated from Japanese and Korean] Suzuki
refers to the Japan-SK tensions over the likely GSOMIA breakdown and the lack
of US influence to stop the breakdown.
Suzuki’s reference to the “Boiling Frog” fable in
the Japan-SK-US relations context means “If you drop a frog into hot water, it
dies immediately. But, if you drop a frog (= people) into warm water, it is
happy because warm water is effective for health. Then if you slowly heat the
water, it dies peacefully. This means SK’s Moon Jae-in tricks people by honey
words and tried to end slowly the alliance. But, now, he changes time-consuming
Boiling Frog tactics. Soon or later, Moon Jae-in administration makes US a bad
guy and tries early withdrawal of the US-SK alliance.”
Underestimation of the US-SK alliance and cheating of US by
SK makes US furious regarding SK’s hard posture in GSOMIA and SMA negotiations.
As China and North Korea strongly dislike the GSOMIA pact between Japan and SK,
withdrawal of GSOMIA implies shift of SK from the blue team to the red team.
Previously, SK’s Moon Jae-in promised US maintenance of GSOMIA, but, Moon
Jae-in broke the promise including other lies. The Moon Jae-in administration
utilizes hard posture of US in GSOMIA and SMA negotiations to stir up
nationalism of SK people and to try an early withdrawal from the US-SK alliance.
Takashi Suzuki
wrote the book “U.S.-Korean Alliance Disappearance”, published on
October 17, 2018.
Anonymous
9 comments:
Hi Pete
Withdrawal of the US-South Korea (SK) alliance starts [1]. US and Japan cannot change mind of SK people. What US and Japan can do is quick construction and establishment of a new strategy after withdrawal of the US-SK alliance. Economic situation of SK is quite bad, if the bad politics continue, SK might be dissolved.
US provided independence of SK after the World War II and protected SK from North Korea and China in the Korean War in the cost of lives of 140,000 US soldiers. If SK betrays US, how American feels ?
[1] “US to review USFK withdrawal,” chosun.com, Nov/21/2019.
http://news.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2019/11/21/2019112100251.html
“The Donald Trump administration is considering withdrawing a USFK brigade in the event that Korea does not meet the US demand for a five-fold increase in the SMA negotiations. Time) was known. The United States has been pressing Korea strongly, demanding $ 5 billion (about 6 trillion won), a fivefold increase from existing contributions.”
PS Takashi Suzuki is not correct. Correct name is Takabumi Suzuoki.
Regards
There are more things going on than what those news disclose.
This issue was raised by personal politic stance of the USA and Japan leaders (Trump and Abe) who want to sacrifice their national security interest for the sake of their own polítical interest (their political survival).
Don´t need to panic here. When Abe and Trump are removed from their leading positions things will return to normality since Korea remains firmly committed to the alliance with the USA.
Only Abe and Trump are desperate.
Hi Anonymous and Unknown
With the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) due to expire at midnight Friday November 22, 2019 Seoul/Tokyo time there is just 9 hours of negotiations to keep GSOMIA.
Japan, South Korea and the US all seem to be blaming the other.
If Obama was still US President the Japan-South Korea differences would have been fixed months ago.
See this article https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/11/22/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-south-korea-gsomia-talks/#.Xdd4LJMzbX4 on the deadline in 9 hours.
Another good article is at The Diplomat paysite https://thediplomat.com/2019/11/south-korea-faces-major-decision-over-military-pact-with-japan/
"Washington considers the Seoul-Tokyo agreement as critical for their three-way security cooperation to cope with North Korea’s nuclear and missile threat and balance China’s growing influence. The arrangement makes it easier for South Korea to access information gathered by Japan’s intelligence satellites, radars, patrol planes and other high-tech systems, which are needed for analyzing North Korean missile tests and submarines.
For Japan, South Korea has value because its [radar, optical and other] military sensors are positioned to detect North Korean launches sooner, and also because of information [SK] gathers from spies, North Korean defectors and other human sources."
Regards
Pete
Hi Pete
Just now, Japanese and South Korean governments have agreed on extension of deadline for withdrawal of GISOMIA.
Regards
Thanks Anonymous [your November 22, 2019 at 4:00 PM]
For your advice "Just now, Japanese and South Korean governments have agreed on extension of deadline for withdrawal of GSOMIA."
This is confirmed by https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2019/11/d004921335aa-breaking-news-japan-s-korea-talks-ongoing-to-avert-gsomia-expiration-sources.html
"SEOUL/TOKYO: South Korea has told Japan it will temporarily extend their military intelligence-sharing agreement, a Japanese government source said Friday, hours before the pact's planned expiration.
The General Security of Military Information Agreement had been set to lapse at midnight after South Korea announced in August its decision to terminate it in response to Japan's tightening of export controls, amid long-running tensions over wartime issues.
South Korea's presidential office said it will hold a press conference on the status of the agreement, also known as GSOMIA, at 6 p.m."
Good sense reigns, for now!
Regards
Pete
Hi Pete
Explosion of nuclear submarine in the South China Sea [1] seems to be a fake news [2]. I am sorry.
[1]https://top-news.online/2019/11/21/a-nuclear-submarine-exploded-in-the-south-china-sea/
[2] “Russia Has No Reliable Info on Nuke Blast in South China Sea, But Trying to Check Claims – Official”, SPUTNIK, Nov/23/2019
https://sputniknews.com/asia/201911231077384237-russia-has-no-reliable-info-on-nuke-blast-in-south-china-sea-but-trying-to-check-claims--official/
The Hal Turner Radio Show from the US has reported, citing unnamed military sources, that a 10-20-kiloton undersea explosion took place in the South China Sea on 20 November. No government agencies have commented on this information so far.
Regards
Hi Anonymous [at November 24, 2019 at 12:01 PM]
Indeed that great American intellectual, Donald "Duck" Trump, would call Nuke Blast in South China Sea "fake news".
I'd say Nuke Blast in South China Sea is politically motivated propaganda from some odd US rightwing circles.
Regards
Pete
Hi Pete
Special advisor of President Moon Jae-in, Moon Chung-in (= Mun Jung-in) spoke openly about the “the China-SK Alliance”. President Donald Trump removed South Korea (SK) from North Korea (NK)’s denuclearized siege. The US-SK Alliance is on the verge of death. SK observer Suzuoki explain the current situation [1].
It's time to prepare dissolution of the US-SK Alliance. The two governments start talking about “divorce.” Moon Chung-in spoke out at public meeting on Dec 4 “Then it is pretty likely that the Koreans ‘OK, you (=US) leave.’ Can China intervene and persuade NK and provide SK with nuclear umbrella?”
US demands SK to increase 5 times of the spending for US forces in SK threatening “Unless you spare it, we will withdraw US forces in SK”. The Special Advisor Moon answered as above.
It was not off-the-cuff statement. The Special Advisor spoke out in front of Professor Yan Xuetong (Chief of Dept. of International relations, Tsinghua University) who requests SK to have alliance not only with US and but also with China.
US government keeps no commenting. But, it started to check through VOA (https://www.voakorea.com/a/5196219.html). David Maxwell, Senior Researcher, The American Democratic Guardian Foundation said “If there are no US troops there and there's no more alliance with the US, China and NK form what is like a pincer movement, you know, one from the north and one from the west and, they really could dominate. If US forces leave the peninsula and China gives a security guarantee, what I expect to happen is China will support NK's subversive efforts and to try to undermine SK, and really to make the SK government collapse.”
But, most of SK people do not believe pincer movement, they think China will take care of SK more than NK. There is a huge gap in the world views between US and SK. China and NK do not unit by communism but unite by geopolitics. NK needs China as a backer against US and China needs NK as a breakwater against US. NK who does not listen to China is a pain of neck for China, SK listens to China very well. That’s why SK people believes China.
US Senator pointed out if SK join the Chinese nuclear umbrella, it sovereignty will not be respected (https://www.rfa.org/korean/in_focus/nk_nuclear_talks/johnrood-12052019160456.html). In fact, China treats SK Presidential envoy as same as a representative of Hong Kong after 2017. But, it is not a big problem in SK. The people of the Korean peninsula have been ruled by the dynasties of mainland China for thousands of years. It’s not pleasant, but it is familiar.
China-SK Alliance covers SK with NK Nuclear Umbrella which is a true object of Moon Jae-in Administration. As US check SK not to send secretly money to NK, SK is going to weaken US-SK Alliance by proposing China-SK Alliance. President Donald Trump understand mood SK twittered “North Korea, under the leadership of Kim Jong Un, has tremendous economic potential, but it must denuclearize as promised. NATO, China, Russia, Japan, and the entire world is unified on this issue!”(https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1203695094949457920
) excluding SK.
[1] “Moon administration starts to recite China-South Korea Alliance at the end. President Trump classified South Korea is North Korea side”, T.Suzuoki, Dec/13/2019, DAILY SHINCHO, https://www.dailyshincho.jp/article/2019/12131600/
Regards
Thanks Anonymous [at December 14, 2019 at 9:52 AM]
South Korea (SK) shares a border with nuclear weapon threatening NK and SK is in the same landmass neighbourhood as China (a rising superpower).
So it is natural that SK continues to "balance" or "hedge" (ie. continues to maintain positive political relations with China and the US).
It may be too strong to say SK is China's ally. If there were a SK-Chinese alliance then China would need to promise to invade NK if NK tried to invade SK. Or China to use nuclear weapons against NK if NK "Nuked" SK.
The main problem seems to be Trump's extraordinary threat to pull US forces out of SK unless SK pays 5 or more times the usual defence tribute to the US.
If SK is forced to be a political vassal of China then China's rising naval power means the Sea of Japan won't save Japan from Chinese political domination for long.
Regards
Pete
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