Australian Submarine Agency Failure? South Korea-US Nuclear Sub Deal

The first head of the Australian Submarine Agency (ASA) Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead, has announced he will retire in mid-2026. Mead was recruited to the then secret Nuclear Powered Submarine Task Force in February 2021, seven months before the AUKUS submarine pact was unveiled in September 2021. 

Mead’s exit may coincide with Australia’s AUKUS submarine plan now being in disarray because the US has offered South Korea competing access to limited US nuclear submarine technology, production and probably training resources. 

In what may be a major ASA failure it appears Australia only became aware of the US-South Korea Nuclear Submarine deal when it was announced by Trump on Truth Social on October 30, 2025. This lack of notice or advice to Australia represents yet another example of Trumpist bad faith towards the US allies. 

LINKS FIXED: South Korea's Nuclear Submarine Quest From US

Pete COMMENTS

If true (corroborating intelligence is required) Trump's surprise approval (see Article below) for South Korea (SK) to build nuclear submarines has many implications, including:

-  Trump (to maximise US profits) might want Australia and SK to embark on a bidding war to secure scarce US nuclear submarine resources. This includes whole subs, US submarine reactor technology and the very highly enriched (95% U235) weapons' grade uranium that goes into the US reactors. As bidders Australia and SK are very close in Nominal GDP (see Table) hence similar in bidding capability.

-  The already high risk AUKUS Pillar 1 agreement for Virginia submarines is more uncertain than up to mid October 2025, when AUKUS Pillar 1 US good faith was taken for granted by the Australian Government. Risks include huge costs, lengthy timelines and inability of the US to build Virginias quickly enough to keep its end of the Virginia sales "by 2032" bargain. In a nutshell the entry of SK's needs and expectations adds uncertainty.

REVISIONS and Additions REDDED

-  What does SK say it wants and what does it really want? It seems SK, will pay the multi-$Billion nuclear sub entry fee to the US via construction of a prototype "K-SSN" SK and the US build at Hanwha Ocean's "Philly" [Philadelphia] USA shipyard. So in the medium  term (10 years) SK will develop its submarine reactor integration knowledge and experience. 

-  The K-SSN prototype can be seen as akin the UK's original Dreadnought SSN prototype completed in 1962. SSBN's also rely on SSNs when leaving and entering base. K-SSN could also be useful against any SSBN North Korea (NK) develops and with an outside chance Russia may sell used Delta-class SSBNs to NK. 

-  What I think SK really wants, in the medium-long term (10-20 years), is to build nuclear ballistic missile armed SSBNs in SK for its first and second strike capability against North Korea. Such a development may be more possible once SK, like Australia, proves itself a source of funding for the US's nuclear sub supply chain. Also SK is greater value than Australia to the US because SK's highly efficient submarine building skills can increase the productivity of the US's slow build submarine industry.

-  SK already has ballistic missile submarines in the shape of its KSS-III Batch 1s and 2s. All other ballistic missile subs in the world are nuclear powered because a reactor allows them to stay safely fully submerged and travel at 18 knots for 3 months rather than 3 weeks at 4 knots for SK's current conventional/AIP KSS-IIIs - with predictable needs to run very noisy diesels. So a "K-SSBN" is far less vulnerable than SK's current SSBs. Hence SK logically is also seeking nuclear power/reactors.

The Hyunmoo-4.4 SLBMs, probably on the KSS-llls, may have 500km range limitations. But I note SK is developing a much longer range 3,000 kms Hyunmoo-5 land based ballistic missile (IRBM). In land based form it is too heavy and tall, as it must boost a large 8 tonne conventional warhead. But for only a one tonne nuclear warhead a 10m tall Hyunmoo-5 at 1.6m diameter would be a well miniaturized SLBM with perhaps a range of 5,500km. That may be ideal for a KSS-lll SSBs or K-SSBNs to have much safe sea-space to hit NK from afar. Such a missile would be slightly larger than the 1964 Polaris A-3.

Since 2015 I have speculated SK's KSS-III Batch 3 (then called KSSN or KSS-N) subs would be nuclear powered.

Also see my:

2020 article (on SK's request for enriched uranium for submarine reactors from the first Trump administration)

2021 article, and 

September 2025 article (where I also discuss SK strategic tensions with Japan which might cause Japan to develop a nuclear sub reactor).  

Trump's SK surprise also has implications for Canada which has suffered US opposition to Canada purchasing UK or French nuclear submarines for decades. Canada wants superior under ice performance in its future class of subs. Nuclear subs would be ideal. So Canada will be arguing "if it is OK for Australia and SK to have nuclear subs why not us (Canada) as well?" SK could build SSNs for Canada.

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ARTICLE

Japan's NHK World News reports October 30, 2025 at https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20251030_06/

"South Korea requests US approval for acquiring nuclear-powered submarines"

"South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has asked US President Donald Trump for approval to acquire nuclear-powered submarines at a summit meeting on Wednesday.

Trump wrote on [Truth Social at https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115459650821125830 , on October 30, 2025], "Our Military Alliance is stronger than ever before and, based on that, I have given them [South Korea] approval to build a Nuclear Powered Submarine."

The two leaders met in the South Korean city of Gyeongju to discuss tariffs and North Korea, among other things.

Lee told Trump he hopes the US president will decide to allow South Korea to acquire fuel supplies for nuclear-powered submarines so that it can build several such vessels using its own technology.

Lee added that South Korea using nuclear-powered submarines to defend the waters around the Korean Peninsula would ultimately reduce the burden on US forces.

South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported that it is the first time the South Korean government has made public its intention to acquire nuclear-powered submarines.

The media outlet carried an analysis presuming that the South Korean request comes as Seoul feels the need to promptly put nuclear-powered submarines into operational deployment to deal with threats from Pyongyang [North Korea]."

4th Nov 2025: AUKUS, Zirconium, Nuclear Testing.

Mouse plague in Australia 4 years ago, here and above. It may happen again in 2025-26.
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1. There could be a mouse plague in southeastern Australia over the next 6 months due to higher rainfall this year is some parts. The plague starts in grain growing areas and then spreads to coastal areas in high green and brown grass. Then mice move to food sources inside houses and supermarkets, etc. As well as crop damage mice eat electrical wiring of fridges, cars and tractors is destructive. 

2. The AUKUS deal is not guaranteed despite Mr Trump's vague endorsement. The first Virginia nuclear sub may arrive here in 2043 not the originally envisaged 2032. The only 2 US submarine factories must complete the higher priority Columbia-class nuclear missile subs first – due to happen by 2042 or later. Only then can they speed up production of the Virginias to 4 a year – sufficient to export Virginias to Australia. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-22/concern-remain-over-aukus-following-trump-talk/105918678

3. In 2006 Australia signed a deal to export vast amounts of Uranium (U) to China. This may not have meant Aussie U going into Chinese nuclear weapons. But it freed up China's own U mines to concentrate their production for Chinese nuclear weapons, All this means Australia is party to an indirect bilateral supply chain for Chinese nuclear weapons. 

4. More recently 2 Chinese companies are the largest shareholders in 2 Australian mines producing minerals vital for China’s hypersonic missiles and nuclear programs. The Australian government even gave one of the Chinese companies a $160 million soft loan to help it into production. China depends on imports for its supply of critical mineral Zirconium. Australia is the world's largest Zirconium producer and supplies China with 41% of its Zirconium supplies. Australian Zirconium eventually finds its way to Chinese and Russian weapons – see https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-03/china-critical-mineral-nuclear-program-australia-supplying/105951072

5. Trump has called for the US to immediately restart the process for testing nuclear weapons. He did not specify what that would involve apart from being "on equal basis" with other countries' (mainly Russia and China) testing programs. Nuclear explosions? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11-01/what-donald-trump-us-nuclear-weapons-testing-would-mean/105955836

6. Because hybrid and electric vehicles are very silent when backing up, travelling a few 100 meters forward or a whole trip new government regulations will require an Acoustic Vehicle Alerting System (AVAS). Drivers of EVs are able to choose the sound effect - from ghost moaning, ice cream van jingles, to Teslas farting. Listen to this https://youtu.be/seEVSFq3FmE?si=NaDr0uSmTd8lZ9Ia

7. Andrew Mountbatten Windsor is moving into another mansion, early next year. This time on the royal 5 mansion and one palace size Sandringham estate. At least 2 layers of security cover the perimeter of the entire 20,000 acre Sandringham Estate. Andrew will not need to contribute to those layers of security. So this means Andrew is hardly the paying private citizen many British public and many Parliamentarians demanded.

8. Cute Animal Corner: People on a whale watching tour off the California coast were lucky enough to spot a gray whale giving birth. After seeing a pool of blood, the tourists feared the whale had encountered a predator. But they soon saw a smaller fluke, or tail, poke out from under the water. The newborn calf nuzzled as the mom held it up because newborn whales cannot swim well for 24 hours until their tails become rigid.

9. Large software upgrades often cause grief as Australian telecommunication carriers and large banks are increasingly experiencing. This is the old Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) all-Australia-rain-weather-radar MAP the BOM deleted 2 weeks ago - that the BOM was forced by huge political pressure to reinstate: https://reg.bom.gov.au/products/national_radar_sat.loop.shtml .

Trump's nuclear testing order odd

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/31/politics/trump-nuclear-weapons-testing-experts-russia

How quantum sensors could make submarines almost impossible to hide

https://www.wionews.com/photos/how-quantum-sensors-could-make-submarines-almost-impossible-to-hide-1761807283801/1761807283806

Taboo Topics: Monday October 27, 2025

Australia has been supplying Ukraine with a 100 low-cost cardboard drones per month since March 2023. The cardboard drones can carry 5kg of weight, have a wingspan of two metres and a range of 120km. (Photo courtesy SYPAQ via Australia's ABC News)
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1. Melbourne, Australia, company SYPAQ has supplied more than 3,000 cheap A$5,000 cardboard drones to Ukraine since 2022. They are used by soldiers for spying, supply drops and one way explosive missions. The drones weigh about 6kg. Their biggest successes have been damaging 5 Russian fighter aircraft on the ground, damaging Russian anti-aircraft batteries and a radar station. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-03/ukraine-war-australian-made-cardboard-drones-russia-warfare/102804120

2. I think the mathematics of NET-ZERO are so complex that Aussies won't make financial sacrifices for what they don't understand. So AI Googling "Net Zero Australia" yields. in part: ""Australia has a legislated target to reduce emissions to net zero by 2050, with an interim target of a 43% reduction below 2005 levels by 2030. A newer target of 62–70% reduction by 2035 has also been set." This is too complex for the majority of Aussies, who cannot afford solar, to pay higher electricity prices for. Hence Albo has been paying all households the A$75 electricity rebate per quarter.

3. The AUKUS deal is by no means guaranteed despite Mr Trump's apparent endorsement. The first Virginia nuclear sub may arrive here in 2043 not the originally envisaged 2032. The only 2 US submarine factories are due to complete the higher priority Columbia-class nuclear missile subs in 2042. Only then can they speed up production of the Virginias to 4 a year – sufficient to export Virginias to Australia. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-22/concern-remain-over-aukus-following-trump-talk/105918678

4. China is manipulating the price of unprocessed rare earths to put rivals, like Australian companies, out of business. When a foreign rival supplier appears China turns to "loss leading". That is flooding the market with cheap rare earths to drive down prices, putting the rivals out of business. Also China may be using fake social media accounts and agents on the ground to alarm processor countries, like Malaysia, about (probably) exaggerated pollution concerns. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-23/australia-us-join-china-in-race-to-bottom-on-rare-earth-prices/105921278

5. Over a quarter of Gen Zers (13 to 28 year olds) say that sometimes they'd rather stay home and talk to a chatbot than go out with a friend. And nearly 3 in 10 Gen Zs said that they can imagine themselves becoming romantically attached to a chatbot. This may drop birth rates lower than their current, low-low levels. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-22/ai-relationship-study/105917858

6. Barnaby Joyce, who resents Littleproud’s rule of the Nationals, might not recontest his lower house seat and may shift to One Nation. Poor Sussan Ley, in trying to build a stable Coalition, has to put up with Jacinta Price and the lads Hastie and Barnaby.

7. British Prime Minister Starmer has supported British MPs' calls for an investigation into Prince Andrew's and ex-wife Fergie’s rent free living at Royal Lodge. They have not paid rent for 30-room Royal Lodge, on the Windsor Estate, for more than 2 decades. But UK political habits make questions about their betters, the royal family, difficult. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-23/keir-starmer-backs-parliamentary-probe-prince-andrew-royal-lodge/105923348

8. Cute animal corner. Barnacles on a surfboard. A surfboard that spent 17 months at sea travelling from Tasmania to NZ, after it was lost off a boat appears set to be reunited with its owner. A social media post by the Kiwi man who found the board was read by the owner of the globe-trotting board. The owner is travelling to NZ to hug his board. Awww! https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-27/surfboard-found-intact-after-drift-from-tasmania-new-zealand/105935392