Canadian Defence Strategy vs US Aggression - Greenland?

This is a national defense plan for Canada in the increasingly credible likelihood of conflict with the United States. Greenland-Denmark (the subject of a future article) is even in more need of a strategy against Russian inspired American aggression.

Ukraine would be the most recent example of a successful defence (perhaps temporary) against a superpower aggressor. 

For Canada that might entail:

Stockpiling of food, spare parts, gas/oil/coal and other essentials from now.

Intelligence gathering (by Canadian Military Intelligence, CSIS Humint, CSE Sigint and Imagery including Canada's Sapphire and Gray Jay satellites) by Canada and Canada's non-US allies concerning:

- US intentions
- changes in US military dispositions and preparations
- ratcheting up of US economic measures (including blockades) against Canada
- Trump's daily communications with, and instructions from Russia

Ongoing analyses of the above collected intelligence. Also an analysis of Trump's many statements which may signal US intentions.

Because of much larger US numbers Canada would be better served by a highly dispersed insurgent strategy than contemplating open battle. This would include:

-  Canadian military and militia use of man portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft/helicopter/drone weapons. 

-  Canadian use of defensive aerial drones, landmines, sea mines and sea drones (UUVs and USVs). 

Canada must reinforce the reality that it is a victim fighting a defensive war.  against Trump's Fascism This could be communicated by a soft-power campaign communicating that message to the international democratic community. That community would include remaining American progressives who must be persuaded that conflict is not in the interests of ordinary Americans.

Justin Trudeau should continue to be seen as the leader of the Canadian freedom. Trudeau should be protected from US or domestic assassination attempts.

Australia looks to France for SSHNs & Nuke Weapons

Middle power Australia can no longer assume we are protected by the US nuclear umbrella. In fact Trump's radical shift to Russia is instructive. In a new SSN concept nuclear armed hypersonic (H) missiles on SSHNs might, for middle powers, be the deterrent of choice against China and Russia. I thank the commenters from this article for the words below. 

With the Russia-US alliance (RUS) the democratic world is losing confidence in US security guarantees. This includes Australia regarding the QUAD and AUKUS. There are multiple examples coming out now of US isolationism which is more manifestly pro-Russian https://news.online.ua/en/the-us-is-ending-support-for-ukrainian-f-16s-but-there-is-a-way-out-891472/
and
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/08/america-vetoes-g7-proposal-to-combat-russias-shadow-fleet-of-oil-tankers

Trump and Vance lead the surrender to Russia. But at the US Defense coalface it is Elbridge Colby, Trump’s nominee for Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, who flags the end of the AUKUS Virginia option. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/09/trump-pick-for-pentagon-says-selling-submarines-to-australia-would-be-crazy-if-taiwan-tensions-flare

Colby is likely to kill the Virginias for Australia in the near term. This is even before the US Presidential decision of the early 2030s kills the Virginia option - responding to USN advice that the US until the 2040s will lack Virginias even for protection of the US heartland. China's long awaited mass protection of SSNs and SSBNs will outstrip America's already low rate of SSN availability. Meanwhile the UK industrial base appears unable to deliver SSN-AUKUS before 2045 https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c871e41751yo  

In any case British SSN availability to Australia relies on US techno-legal permissions. US veto power over British autonomy is underwritten by the US developed and Kings Bay, US, supplied Trident IIs/D5s which are Britain's only nuclear warhead delivery type. 

At the same time, the current Australian Government and Opposition, at the public level, are in denial over the emerging Russia-US alliance. Australia’s vain Defence Minister Marles has always placed his political career over responsibility. See his denials here https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/transcripts/2025-03-06/television-interview-abc-730. Australia's Canberra capital is, publicly at least, in a parallel universe of vain hope, that doesn't address the new Russia US alliance.

Unfortunately Japan and South Korea (SK) rely on US nuclear protection even more than Australia. Japanese Taigeis and SK KSS-IIIs, like all conventional submarines, lack the speed and range to be a viable Australian strategic weapon against China or Russia. Israel, as well, relies on US strategic and political protection. India, despite its nationalist protestations of autonomy, is reliant on Russia for nuclear submarine technology and, more secretly, Russian nuclear weapons tech.

Only less aligned country France https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c871e41751yo might sell nuclear submarines and nuclear weapons to Australia for a price. As Australia is now desperate - this runs contrary to my France can't help February 2025 articles here and here.

Peter Coates

US shift in alliance triggers Australia's

In view of the Russia-US alliance (RUS) Australia looks to China, free of any pangs as to our traditional links or kinship with America. [1] considering [2]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Labor_Party#World_War_II_and_beyond

[2] https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/china-versus-america-on-global-trade/#map

Australia's newfound knowledge of Virginia SSN technology will be of considerable value in the transfer of technology prior to our purchase of Type 095 SSNs. [3]

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_095_submarine

Singapore Defense Update 2025: Navy gets 2 more Invincible class Submarines, will launch first MRCV in 2025!

In his speech during Singapore Parliament's 2025 Supply Debate, Singapore's Defence Minister Dr. Ng Eng Hen announced a plan to purchase two more Invincible-class (Type-218SG) submarines, launch the first Multi-Role Combat Vessel, and purchase new Maritime Patrol Aircraft.

RSS Invincible, image courtesy: Republic of Singapore Navy

Two more Invincible-class (Type-218SG) Submarines

Minister Ng's announcement did not reveal any specific details on when the two new submarines will be ordered or delivered, but as of March 2025, two Invincible-class boats are in commission in the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN), while two boats remain in Kiel, Germany, one for crew training while the last boat fits out. Dr. Ng has indicated that he expects these four submarines to fully commission by 2028.

Considering the original two Invincible-class boats were ordered in 2013, the new third batch should see significant modifications to the design and incorporate new technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries and increased Unmanned Underwater Vessel (UUV) storage. 

The RSN's current commissioned submarine fleet consists of two Invincible-class and two Archer-class (ex-Vastergotland A17) boats, as the last two Challenger-class boats retired in late 2024, leaving the RSN with four operational AIP boats.

As I mentioned in my June 2023 article on the state of Singapore's submarine forces, the two Archer-class boats were purchased from Kockums in 2005, undertook a major refit that included the addition of a Stirling AIP module, and commissioned in 2011 and 2013. This should enable the Archer-class to remain viable boats into the early 2030s.

First MRCV to launch in late 2025

First MRCV keel laying, image: Naval News

Since my August 2024 update on Singapore's MultRole Combat Vessel (MRCV), the first keel was laid in late October 2024, and Dr. Ng has now confirmed that this vessel, which is still unnamed, will launch by the end of 2025. This is in-line with the previously mentioned 2028 commissioning date. 

My own opinion on the speed of the MRCV program is due to two primary factors:

1. The Victory-class missile corvettes are now 33 years old and worn out.

2. Once the MRCV construction program is completed, the yard will then switch to the production of the still mysterious Joint Multi Mission Ship (JMMS) program.

We should find out more about the MRCV program and perhaps JMMS, as the upcoming IMDEX Asia 2025.

New Maritime Patrol Aircraft

RSAF Fokker-50 MPA: image courtesy Republic of Singapore Air Force

Dr. Ng also announced a replacement program for Singapore's elderly Fokker-50 MPA, with the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) "looking intently at appropriate replacements", including the Boeing P8 Poseidon and the Airbus C295. 

The RSAF has operated 5 Fokker-50 MPA since 1993, and their replacement could include long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicles, as there has been rumours for a number of years that Singapore has purchased Elbit Hermes 900 MALE UAVs.

China's Warship FONOP Near Australia is a Reaction to USN Taiwan Strait FONOP

PETE COMMENT

Already the US fixation with the Taiwan Strait is putting Australia under strain.

China has undertaken a standard Freedom of Navigation operation (FONOP) in waters close to Australia.

The US Navy frequently FONOPs against China, eg: in the South China Sea. The USN more blatantly FONOPs through the Taiwan Strait with US ships sailing close to mainland China. The US Navy's last Taiwan Strait FONOP was in early February 2025, see https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinese-military-monitored-us-ship-crossing-taiwan-strait-state-media-reports-2025-02-11/.

The Chinese flotilla (details below) that sailed south close to Australia can be seen as a reaction to the US Navy's Taiwan Strait FONOP of early February 2025.

Military HQ in Canberra are aware of the above connection. But it is politically inconvenient for Marles or Albanese to make this public.

ARTICLE

Defence correspondent Andrew Greene and Foreign Affairs correspondent Stephen

 Dziedzic for Australia's ABC News reported February 26, 2025

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-26/chinese-warship-deployment-designed-to-be-provocative/104982224 

"Intelligence chief says Chinese warship deployment designed to be 'provocative'"

One of the flotilla is the PLA-N Renhai-class cruiser Zunyi (Pennant Number 107) seen here in the Solomon Sea, northeast of Australia. (Photo Courtesy Australian Defence Force via ABC)

"In short:

Defence officials believe a Chinese [Type 093] nuclear-powered submarine likely accompanied the People's Liberation Army-Navy flotilla during its deployment off Australia's coast.

It comes as commercial airline pilots who flew over the Tasman Sea last week told the ABC they monitored radio communications from the Chinese warships to military surveillance aircraft as far back as a week ago.

What's next?

Defence said it continues to "closely" track the Chinese flotilla, which had re-entered Australia's exclusive economic zone on Tuesday.

He also described its recent live-fire exercises as unprecedented and said they demonstrated "China's growing capability to project military power into our immediate region" was "now matched by an increasing intent to do so".

Appearing before a parliamentary committee on Monday night, the [Australian Office of National Intelligence] ONI boss observed this was "the furthest south a People's Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) task group has operated".

"We judge Beijing intends to normalise this sort of presence, shape the responses of those in the region, and observe and learn from our reactions," he told the Senate estimates hearing.

"The largest and least transparent military build-up since the Second World War will mean the PLA will be able to operate at greater distances from mainland China, in greater numbers, including into Australia's immediate seas and skies," he said.

On Tuesday, Defence confirmed the PLA-N flotilla had re-entered Australia's exclusive economic zone, where it was being closely tracked as it operated around 160 nautical miles east of Hobart.

One military figure, not authorised to speak publicly, told the ABC there was a "working assumption" that a taskforce comprising three warships so far from the Chinese mainland for weeks could have submarine support for at least part of the deployment.

Other navies that boast nuclear-powered submarines, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, are known to regularly use them during lengthy and complex warship missions to gather valuable intelligence on potential adversaries.

Meanwhile, commercial airline pilots who flew over the Tasman Sea last week have told the ABC they monitored radio communications from the Chinese warships to military surveillance aircraft as far back as a week ago, warning about possible live-firing activity.

Chinese 'live fire' military exercise forced 49 flight diversions

Photo shows A Virgin plane flying in the sky in Brisbane.

Airservices Australia representatives tell a parliamentary hearing that almost 50 flights were forced to divert after China signalled it was conducting the hazardous drills in busy international airspace.

"The Chinese vessel made a broadcast on 121.5 [VHF frequency] about a live firing drill, telling the NZ aircraft to remain at a safe distance," one international airline pilot told the ABC when describing a flight on Tuesday, February 18.

"The NZ aircraft replied that under international law they can be there, it occurred a couple of times. Many civilian aircraft heard it and told the Chinese to 'go away.'"

This week aviation officials revealed they were first informed that a Chinese live-firing exercise had begun when a Virgin Australia pilot relayed warnings they had picked up mid-flight via an emergency radio frequency."

[Also see "NZ defence minister warns of 'extremely capable' Chinese warships in Tasman Sea" of February 24, 2025 at

 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-24/chinese-warship-missiles-in-tasman-sea-nz-minister-warning/104973290 ]

Australia's Eris-1 Rocket Launch Delayed till March 2025?

Above is Gilmour Space's Eris-1 rocket at the Bowen Orbital Spaceport in Queensland, Australia. A rocket that size has long range dual-use missile potential. The photo from Gilmour's February 3, 2025 Media Release.

See APDR for "Gilmour Space Technologies has announced a launch window starting ‘no earlier than’ March 15 [2025] for the maiden flight of Eris, the first Australian-designed and built rocket aiming for orbit. The news follows final airspace approvals from the Civil Aviation Safety Authority (CASA) and Airservices Australia, clearing the last regulatory hurdle before launch."

The launch will take place from the Bowen Orbital Spaceport in far north Queensland, Australia. 

Why the delay? 

• The launch was delayed to allow for additional testing and verification
  https://www.innovationaus.com/countdown-gilmour-space-closes-in-on-testflight-one-mission/
• The company wanted to give its team a break over Christmas 2024.
• The company wanted to ensure mission safety and success

About the Eris-1 rocket 

• The Eris-1 is a small orbital launch vehicle that can carry payloads of up to 305 kg into low earth orbit [scroll down here https://www.gspace.com/launch ]

• It has three stages and uses hybrid propulsion technologies
• The Eris-1 is 23 meters in length and has a mass of 34 tonnes at lift off

About the launch permit 

• The Australian Government issued Gilmour Space Technologies with an Australian launch permit in November 2024 https://spacenews.com/gilmore-space-secures-license-for-first-orbital-launch/

• This permit is the first ever issued by the Australian Government for a commercial orbital launch vehicle

Pete Comment

It is probably just coincidental that the 2m diameter of Eris-1's first (ie. lowest) stage (scroll down here) is almost identical to the 2.11 diameter of the first stage of a Trident II submarine launched ballistic missile (see right sidebar).