February 11, 2025

No French SSNs for Australia Possible: Part Two.

The wishful thinking that France might sell nuclear subs to Australia just won’t die off despite the evidence, in Part One of February 4, 2025 and Part Two, below.

A. When, in 2016, Australia was seeking a "regionally superior submarine" which would have needed many characteristics of an SSN, DCNS now Naval Group's Chief Executive Herve Guillou ambiguously told AAP on March 24, 2016:

"“If, in 2050, Australia wants a nuclear submarine, they [France? or Australia with French assistance?] can design a nuclear submarine”  see https://web.archive.org/web/20160403082949/http://indaily.com.au/news/2016/03/24/france-pitches-nuke-sub-option-for-australia/

Hence, French government owned Naval Group made no offer to export an SSN to Australia.

Naval Group's ambiguous offer from 2050 to help design an SSN for Australia is later than the UK's offer to joint  design (with the US and Australia) the SSN-AUKUS from the late 2030s and build SSN-AUKUS from the early 2040shttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSN-AUKUS . 

B.  Moving from ambiguous Naval Group commercial spin in 2016 - later, in 2022, after AUKUS was announced French President Macron said French Barracuda (aka Suffren) SSNs were not for sale to Australia. 

Macron said the sale of nuclear submarines to Australia “risks increasing tensions with China and make Australia dependent on other countries.” See https://see.news/macron-warns-australias-nuclear-subs-deal-will-not-deliver of 18 November 2022.

C.  Whether nuclear submarines use HEU (like the US and UK) or LEU (like France) France's opposition to exporting SSNs to Australia still holds. This is because of French concern over offending China. 

Another reason is French unwillingness to risk its most sensitive technical secrets.  Here is a 22 July 2022 Australian academic's comment:

 
"The French government never has exported, or even permitted formal negotiations to export, the nuclear submarine technology it considers a crown jewel of its military. Exporting nuclear submarines would require a high level of bilateral trust, which Morrison shattered and Albanese would need to rebuild." 

Macron is still France's President and he has not altered France's no nuclear submarine exports to Australia policy.  

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