I publish on subs, other naval, nuclear weapons & broad political issues. Aussie sub changes are slow: talk rather than actual new subs. Collins LOTE (1st one ending 2029) may concern https://www.asc.com.au/what-we-do/collins-life-of-type-extension-lote/ . Trump may decide to cancel the AUKUS Virginia offer as a disposable Biden promise and due to USN advice it needs all operational SSNs through to the 2040s to mainly face China. Gessler & Shawn C are excellent contributors.
February 3, 2025
Indonesian Undersea Energy Pipelines: Between its Islands & Singapore
As far as I know, the Indonesian Scorpene deal is still being negotiated, with nothing in the media since September 2024.
Indonesian defence companies have shown mini/coastal submarine and UUV concepts over the last few years, but the porosity of Indonesia's (and the Philippines') maritime borders to foreign underwater intruders is well-reported. https://www.bairdmaritime.com/security/naval/unmanned-naval-systems/underwater-drone-of-suspected-chinese-origin-found-off-philippines-masbate-province
I believe that Indonesia has 'less' worry about the Natuna Sea, to the West of the Natuna Islands, as there should be a joint agreement with Singapore for the surveillance and defence of gas pipelines and cables terminating/starting from Singapore. My own opinion is that this is the primary reason why the Singapore Navy has ASW and submarine capabilities.
Same deal with pipes and cable infrastructure in the Singapore Straits and Malacca Straits. Reckon a 'anchor dragging' incident occurring in these regions is possible, but the area is highly monitored.
Speaking of Singapore, the Nuclear power issue was recently reported again - SMRs to aid in the growth of data centres. I am unsure of the size of an exclusion zone necessary for the operation of an SMR, though one US report states 'within a few miles radius' (https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1733/ML17333B158.pdf)
More than likely, if Singapore moves towards nuclear energy, it will be a joint project with Indonesia or Malaysia.
It seems extraordinary Indonesia says it is buying Scorpenes after decades of Type 209 variants, including the Nagapasa class (that will operate in Indonesia's Navy into the 2040s) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagapasa-class_submarine#Boats_in_class
I suspect Indonesian haggling with France over middlemens' "commissions" and over soft loan terms might be at play.
Yes plastic models of mini/coastal subs, probably of South Korean design, have been regularly showcased.
Additional reasons the Singapore Navy has ASW and submarine capabilities would be as: - a counter to Malaysian and Indonesian submarine capabilities. - also Singapore's subs may have been allocated the Malacca Strait region (and southern South China Sea) by Singapore's senior US ally, particularly to monitor Chines submarine movements.
It is very likely Singapore's armed submarines, surface ships and maritime patrol aircraft patrol a sea area with many Western seabed and tethered acoustic sensors.
Always a risk a Chinese maritime militia "trawler" could drag its anchor or "net" over Indonesia to Singapore undersea energy pipelines and cables.
Having a nuclear electricity reactor in spacious mid-northern Sumatra or Malaysia would be far preferable to a reactor in crowded Singapore. Although there's always a risk Indonesia could switch off all these undersea gas pipelines in tense times.
Although SMR's might be theoretically-shut-down safer than conventional reactors a terrorist or military attack (a risk seen in russia vs Ukraine) could be disastrous without a large exclusion zone.
2 comments:
Hi Pete!
As far as I know, the Indonesian Scorpene deal is still being negotiated, with nothing in the media since September 2024.
Indonesian defence companies have shown mini/coastal submarine and UUV concepts over the last few years, but the porosity of Indonesia's (and the Philippines') maritime borders to foreign underwater intruders is well-reported.
https://www.bairdmaritime.com/security/naval/unmanned-naval-systems/underwater-drone-of-suspected-chinese-origin-found-off-philippines-masbate-province
I believe that Indonesia has 'less' worry about the Natuna Sea, to the West of the Natuna Islands, as there should be a joint agreement with Singapore for the surveillance and defence of gas pipelines and cables terminating/starting from Singapore. My own opinion is that this is the primary reason why the Singapore Navy has ASW and submarine capabilities.
Same deal with pipes and cable infrastructure in the Singapore Straits and Malacca Straits. Reckon a 'anchor dragging' incident occurring in these regions is possible, but the area is highly monitored.
Speaking of Singapore, the Nuclear power issue was recently reported again - SMRs to aid in the growth of data centres. I am unsure of the size of an exclusion zone necessary for the operation of an SMR, though one US report states 'within a few miles radius' (https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML1733/ML17333B158.pdf)
More than likely, if Singapore moves towards nuclear energy, it will be a joint project with Indonesia or Malaysia.
Hi Shawn at 2/06/2025 2:12 AM
It seems extraordinary Indonesia says it is buying Scorpenes after decades of Type 209 variants, including the Nagapasa class (that will operate in Indonesia's Navy into the 2040s) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagapasa-class_submarine#Boats_in_class
I suspect Indonesian haggling with France over middlemens' "commissions" and over soft loan terms might be at play.
Yes plastic models of mini/coastal subs, probably of South Korean design, have been regularly showcased.
Additional reasons the Singapore Navy has ASW and submarine capabilities would be as:
- a counter to Malaysian and Indonesian submarine capabilities.
- also Singapore's subs may have been allocated the Malacca Strait region (and southern South China Sea) by Singapore's senior US ally, particularly to monitor Chines submarine movements.
It is very likely Singapore's armed submarines, surface ships and maritime patrol aircraft patrol a sea area with many Western seabed and tethered acoustic sensors.
Always a risk a Chinese maritime militia "trawler" could drag its anchor or "net" over Indonesia to Singapore undersea energy pipelines and cables.
Having a nuclear electricity reactor in spacious mid-northern Sumatra or Malaysia would be far preferable to a reactor in crowded Singapore. Although there's always a risk Indonesia could switch off all these undersea gas pipelines in tense times.
Although SMR's might be theoretically-shut-down safer than conventional reactors a terrorist or military attack (a risk seen in russia vs Ukraine) could be disastrous without a large exclusion zone.
Cheers Pete
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