Delayed Orkas? TKMS, Naval Group & Saab: Iranian "AIP"!

Shawn C, on Thursday March 14, 2024 (just before the Dutch Orka decision) commented offline:

TKMS MATTERS

https://youtu.be/hI5md1HOBT4?si=F0Qdw2SlPtG5RFrY

Note: TKMS just built a new sub building facility in Kiel. This will allow TKMS to simultaneously produce:

• 2-3 submarines a year - not sure if he meant "build more subs"
• Allows for the production of bigger boats – Type 212CD and 'bespoke customer requirements' (Which I thought was a hint at Israel's future Dakar class)
• Planted questions about TKMS employment and supply to TKMS sales director.
• Elaborated on 'orphan designs' - maybe based on Dolphin class experience? 
• Production increase - can ramp up - speaks about Dutch production partner.
• New TKMS hall improves production by 20% - to new submarine projects a year? RSS Invincible took 5 years to build (ordered 2013, construction began 2014, launched in 2019)
• Uses Microsoft HoloLens for AR enhancement to production. https://www.microsoft.com/en-au/hololens 

Further on TKMS Production capacity:

• TKMS: Dolphin ended 2023.   
• Singapore's Invincible class program will be completed 2024.
• The 4 Norwegian and 2 German Type  212CD class started in 2023.
• Israel’s 3 future Dakar-class program was confirmed August 2022, so should now be in production. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dakar-class_submarine
  
• Obvious question about [the not yet finalized] Dutch contest. If extended Type 212CDs were built that would make the Type 212CDs a 10 submarine class. 
  
  

NAVAL GROUP MATTERS

[Pete comment: Given the Netherlands has not finally chosen Naval Group’s (NG) Orka until the Dutch Parliament agrees...] Note: Between the three sub builders TKMS, NG and Saab. As a rough estimate, all three main shipbuilders (I have not assessed their Dutch partners) should have available construction facilities in 2027 for this program. 

All three are in active production of SSKs but NG is in India and Brazil.
[Pete comment: DCNS/NG last built Scorpenes in Cherboug up to 2009 along with 2 SSNs (in 2009) but not simultaneously with SSBNs. So Cherbourg production facilities (already for the remaining SSNs and future SSBNs) might be inadequate if Orkas also need to be built at Cherbourg? This might cause unexpected delays in the Orka Project. Will the Orkas need to be built elsewhere in France or in the Netherlands?] 
I do not think NG will want to divert French SNLE 3G/SSBN production.

Suffren-class - the last in class NG Casabianca estimated 2029 delivery - 3 boats are concurrently in production, with the next two expected in 2025 and 2027. With the Rubis-class Saphir-Perle also returned to service in 2023, this may mean that NG has clear yard space (and clear Barracuda production facilities), though the SNLE 3G SSBN production was supposed to start at the end of 2023. [apparently the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G has not even been laid down yet!]

SAAB MATTERS

[Pete comment: As Saab has no foreign orders Saab’s loss of the Orka-class competition is a bitter blow. Saab may become involved in Australia's Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) from 2026 but that is not certain.]

Saab: 2 x A26 Blekinge-class are in production, with expected delivery in 2027 & 2028, last Gotland refit should be completed. [Maybe 2 more Blekinges will be ordered in the 2030s?].

SINGAPORE NAVY MATTERS

Wow! This is fast! 30 min before I saw this I was at the Singapore Ministry of Defense (Mindef) site checking press releases! 

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/03/singapore-cuts-steel-on-its-first-multirole-combat-vessel-mrcv/

Not out yet on Singapore news sites.

8,000 ton Multi Role Combat Vessel (MRCV) frigate with a 4 year delivery date... very ambitious.
 

“HOT” IRANIAN AIP OFFER

Does anyone want to buy Iranian AIP [on a 600 tonne Fateh-class submarine] ?

https://www.navalnews.com/event-news/dimdex-2024/2024/03/iran-unveils-aip-version-of-fateh-class-submarine-at-dimdex-2024/

Final Dutch Decision Awaits Lower House 18/3 Onwards

The final Dutch decision stage on the Walrus Replacement apparently will not be the Dutch Council of Ministers meeting on Friday March 15, 2024 (Dutch time). 

Instead the Lower House of the Dutch Parliament must debate the Decision on, or from, Monday, March 18 (Dutch time). 

Sources

1.  https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/03/netherlands-to-order-four-new-submarines-from-french-shipbuilder/ 

"The order is politically sensitive because Saab, one of the losing bidders, has a partnership with Dutch shipyard Damen. Parliament is due to debate the [Walrus Replacement] deal next Monday, once the council of ministers has signed it off on Friday." 

and 

2.  https://nltimes.nl/2024/03/12/dutch-government-ordered-four-submarines-french-state-company-naval-eu6-bil-deal 

"The formal decision will be made at the weekly Cabinet [more correctly Council of Ministers] meeting on Friday, the sources said. After that, the Tweede Kamer, the lower house of the Dutch parliament, must assess and approve the purchase."

Pete Comment

I am unaware whether this subsequent lower house approval is a mere technicality or whether it is a major hurdle that might overturn the Council of Ministers' decision.

Also, might lower house approval potentially take hours, days or weeks?

Australia's Virginia Chances Dive Deeper

An excellent article by Dominic Giannini at AAP-MSN of March 13, 2024 at https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/australia-faces-subs-challenge-in-us-nuclear-at-home/ar-BB1jMyE1 in part includes:

“Cuts to the production of a nuclear-powered submarine in the US have raised concerns about Australia's planned acquisition as the government moves ahead to regulate its nuclear industry in preparation.

A Virginia-class submarine has been cut from the 2025 proposed US defence budget.

…Australia was completely dependent on Washington to acquire the submarine and America would always back their navy if there was a shortage in production, former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said.

"The reality is the Americans are not going to make their submarine deficit worse than it is already by giving or selling submarines to Australia and [Congress'] AUKUS legislation actually sets that up," he told ABC radio on Wednesday…”

"...Virginia-class submarines supposed to be delivered this year in America were running an average of more than 30 months late, US defence under secretary comptroller and chief financial officer Michael McCord said.

Money not flowing through to the industrial base fast enough was also a problem, Mr McCord said, as he pointed to there being more than a dozen on order that remained in production."

[Australia's Part-time Defence Minister Marles should take note what the US DoD is saying] 

"Spending money to prop up industry rather than spending it on another submarine was a smarter investment, [McCord] added..."

More see https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/australia-faces-subs-challenge-in-us-nuclear-at-home/ar-BB1jMyE1

Pete Comment

The most valid measure of Virginia production is “Commissioned” see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class With current yearly commissionings averaging 1.3 Virginias per year. 

Using "Boats in class" commissionings were:

- 2 in 2022

- 1 in 2023, and

-  1 is due in 2024 "Scheduled for 6 April" 

Hence cutting 1.0 per year might mean no Virginias being commissioned in 2025 and/or 2026.

This truly worries the USN. Hence it is, no doubt, advising the Secretary of Defense, Congress and the President that all existing and new Virginias should be retained by the USN - through to the early 2040s at least.

Further Reports France Won Walrus Replacement

On Wednesday 13, 2024 Anonymous commented: 

“It looks increasingly likely that Naval has indeed won this contract. Multiple Dutch news services announced it overnight Australian time.

https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/03/netherlands-to-order-four-new-submarines-from-french-shipbuilder/

The official announcement is stated to occur this Friday [March 15, which will be Saturday, March 16 in Australia, but evidently losing tenderers are informally notified in advance.”

ARTICLE

That excellent Dutch News article of March 12, 2024 reports: lhttps://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/03/netherlands-to-order-four-new-submarines-from-french-shipbuilder/

“Netherlands to order four new submarines from French shipbuilder”

The Dutch government is expected to announce an order this week for four submarines from French shipbuilder Naval Group, sources have told RTL News. 

[Naval Group] The Paris-based company, which is 62.5% owned by the French state, saw off competition from Swedish firm Saab and Germany’s TKMS to build the vessels at a total cost of around €4 billion.

They will replace the Walrus-class submarines which have been in service since 1990. As much as 40% of the work will be carried out in the Netherlands, RTL reported. 

The order is politically sensitive because Saab, one of the losing bidders, has a partnership with Dutch shipyard Damen. Parliament is due to debate the deal next Monday, once the council of ministers has signed it off on Friday.

Two weeks ago the cabinet ordered four new frigates from Damen under a contract worth at least €2.5 billion. Arming the vessels will cost another €2.5 billion, making it the biggest maritime order ever placed with a Dutch manufacturer.

PETE COMMENT

Anonymous on March 11, 2024 provided estimated specs of the possible winning French submarine: “…it was mentioned that the French submarine for The Netherlands submarine replacement will have a displacement of 3,000 tonnes [surfaced?], a length of 80 meters and a smaller diameter (8 meters?)...”

Naval Group (NG) not having sea proven AIP (since MESMA days) might not be  disadvantaged compared to AIP specialists Saab and TKMS. This is because the Walrus and Replacements have very long range mission profiles (all the way to the Dutch Caribbean and return). For such long missions carrying AIP (especially the super-cooled liquid oxygen LOX) is a heavy, space-taking, burden, of marginal utility, rather than an asset.

In any case NG's Walrus Replacement may well have longer full submergence Lithium-ion Batteries, probably from French company Saft.

If Naval Group won, this is bad news for Saab, long expected to be the winner. Saab has desperately needed foreign orders since Saab lost Singapore’s Invincible-class tender to TKMS in 2013.

Australia's ERIS Dual-Use Rocket

Adam Gilmour, CEO, Co-Founder Gilmour with ERIS Block 1, Australia's dual-use capable rocket. ERIS has the classic ICBM size and shape (eg. like a Minuteman III). Shape includes ERIS not having strap-on boosters that would impede it being placed in silos. (Photo Gilmour Space via Byron Bay's The Echo, March 1, 2024)

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Since I first looked at Virginias for Australia 9 years ago https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2015/02/australian-nuclear-submarine-option.html I think it increasingly unlikely the US will ever deliver Virginias to Australia.

Biden is merely using the receding Virginia mirage to feed Australian hopes until the UK tools up Osborne to merely begin building Australian SSN-AUKUS's for launches at Osborne starting around 2051.

In any case China will not be deterred by merely conventionally armed Australian SSNs.

Rather than SSNs, Australia could more quickly develop ICBMs, which is were Gilmour Space Technologies might come in.

https://www.gspace.com/about Founded by two brothers in Gold Coast, Queensland, GILMOUR SPACE is a venture-capital-backed Australian launch services company that is developing new capabilities for launching satellites to space.​

Since starting its rocket program in 2015, Gilmour Space has become the leading provider of Australian-made launch vehicles and satellite platforms that will lower the cost of accessing space.

Reported in February 2018 https://www.spacetechasia.com/gilmour-space-nasa-sign-space-act-agreement/  "Australia and Singapore-based rocket company, Gilmour Space Technologies, has entered into a Space Act Agreement with the US National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) to collaborate on various research, technology development and educational initiatives, according to Gilmour’s press release."

See Queensland's Gilmour Space dual-use ERIS rocket-missile project https://www.gspace.com/launch .

Specifications: https://www.gspace.com/launch ERIS Block 1 will be 25m tall, 3 stage, diameter 2m tapering to 1.5m (average 1.75m), weighing "over 30 tonnes"

Very significantly https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-27/historic-australian-orbital-rocket-launch-remote-queensland/103265210 [ERIS with a clean missile shape ie. no strap-on side boosters] "is powered by five hybrid engines that contain a solid fuel and a liquid oxidiser."...."During the 1950s American and British made rockets were launched from the Woomera testing range in South Australia, and if ERIS is successful would make Australia just the 12th nation to have access to the technology."

"We have global competitors and they get significantly more funding in their countries than we get from ours," argues Mr Gilmour who is a former banker and lifelong space enthusiast.

"So I think Australia has to have a real good think about what it wants and realise that all of our major allies are pouring hundreds of millions to billions of dollars into launch capability and we're not."

On March 1, 2024 The [Byron Bay] Echo reported https://www.echo.net.au/2024/03/first-australian-made-and-owned-rocket-test-flight-coming/ 

“The [ERIS] rocket, developed on the Gold Coast, was recently transported to the Bowen Orbital Spaceport in north Queensland to be assembled and is looking to launch in the next few months.

Hear Adam Gilmour (especially 18 minutes in) discussing the possibility of Australian defence uses for ERIS rockets. Not only defence satellite boosting is  possible.

Pete Comment

Gilmour's civilian ERIS Block 1 is to be launched at the Bowen Orbital Spaceport in Abbot Point North Queensland, in 2024 or 2025.

Japan Didn't Transfer Best Sub Tech: PRC Agents in Taiwan

Note Wikipedia's belief that Taiwan's Hai Kun submarines are being "assembled using Japanese construction techniques in Taiwan. A Japanese team consisting of retired engineers from Mitsubishi and Kawasaki Heavy Industries is believed to have provided technical support." see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hai_Kun-class_submarine#Design

Within this Japanese help argument my theory is more specifically that Taiwan's Hai Kun "1" is more based on Japan's Oyashio-class submarines than based on any other Japanese or foreign subs.

Arguments include:

-  the similarity of Oyashios and the Hai Kun (see below)

-  both Oyashios and Hai Kuns don't have AIP, and 

-  while Japan (or any other nation) would use recent technology they would not transfer their latest technology for a Taiwanese submarine. One reason being Taiwanese ports and therefore shipbuilding are highly penetrated by PRC agents.

See David Axe's Forbes article "To Conquer Taiwan, China Needs Taiwan’s Ports. It Already Has Assets On The Inside." of July 28, 2021 at https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/07/28/to-conquer-taiwan-china-needs-taiwans-ports-the-takeover-has-already-begun/?sh=5b913e8b633c

which states in part: "Corporate acquisitions in recent years have put CCP loyalists in charge of some of Taiwan’s most important port architecture. In a crisis, these loyalists could supply Chinese invaders with vital intelligence, thus reducing the risk to the assault force."

“Over the past two decades, the CCP has established representative offices in Taiwan’s major ports, invested in Taiwanese port building projects and gained direct access to at least some of Taiwan’s basic port infrastructure,” Ian Easton, an analyst with the Project 2049 Institute in Virginia, explained in a new study. [at https://project2049.net/2021/07/22/hostile-harbors-taiwans-ports-and-pla-invasion-plans/ ]"

Japanese Oyashio-class non-AIP submarine (Model courtesy Flying Mule)
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Taiwan's Hai Kun "1" (Photo courtesy Mer et Marine)
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