July 5, 2019

Pete's Foggy Friday Poetical Affirmations

THO I VOTED LABOR...

(Noting Bill "Shorty" Shorten, lost the May 2019 Australian Election. Hence "Shorty" was rapidly replaced, as Labor leader, by Anthony "Albo" Albanese.)

A blessing not to see Shorty's
Sad little face on TV

Shorten name
Short in luck
Feet with flippers

...Albo-lutely

Of Hawkie's funereal rapture
He was a man short in stature
But BIG in speedo
Ladies Lined up
Ta Luv’im y'know :)


ODES TO AN ARROGANT MAL-ACHIEVER

Here I sit good sense denied
Excess booze last night imbibed.

Here I sit good sense maintained
Booze last night, I refrained.


MY AUTOBIOGRAPHY would Begg-ineth
(with a hat tip to Eric Idle)

Life is like a flash 12 metre yacht on Sydney Harbour. It’s alright if you have one.
My life as a failed pessimist.
Of course I have my faults, but you won’t read about them here.
Writing about yourself is an odd mix of therapy and lapdancing; exciting yet a little shameful.
Pete

[Now Stop That! Stop That! This is all silly, indiscrete, and totally lacking in literary merit, OK?! Vee haff a gut mind to permanently delete it under the Read it, Burn it, Then put out our own eyes Act of  19?? ...OK?

But just don't tell anyone its no longer there. OK?!]

July 4, 2019

24 or 36 Australian conventional subs? Baby Boomer SSGNs.

1.  Politicians and the public can count. 

So radically multiplying Australian conventional submarine numbers creates reader interest

Calls to radically multiply Australian submarine numbers and other weapons, is somewhat traditional - seen in Ross Babbage's 2008 "rip an arm off a giant" with perhaps 300 to 400? F-35s and 20 to 30? submarines. 

But if Australia can hardly crew and captain 6 Collins how will we handle the already planned 12, let alone 24 or 36? A more reasonable plan may be 6 conventionally propelled Attack / Shortfin class submarines operating by 2038 followed by 6 nuclear propelled Attack class (aka French Barracuda SSNs) by 2050. 

Nuclear reactors are the only way to make Australian submarines reach the Government’s goal of "regionally superior" as expressed in this 1 page summary from Australia's 2016 Defence White Paper. That is for Australian submarines to be a match for the most serious nuclear sub owning threats (Russia, more particularly China and perhaps, one day, India)

2.  Nuclear propulsion is also ideal to make 4 Australian submarines adequate Baby Boomers” that is small carriers of SLBMs for a credible nuclear deterrent .

An ideal Baby Boomer SSGN would be the superior (whole of life fueled reactor) late model US Virginia class Block V...

Pete

July 3, 2019

Fatal Fire on Russian Nuclear Submarine "Losharik" - Further Background at bottom!

On July 3, 2019 the Australian Government owned ABC News reported a fatal fire, July 1, 2019, on the Russian nuclear spy submarine Losharik.

PETE COMMENT

As well as research the Losharik is a spy submarine, which conducts top secret missions. For example Losharik is used for tapping Western undersea cables (some perhaps from Australia) and laying secret fixed anti-submarine sensors in the Atlantic, Pacific and Arctic oceans. The Losharik has been described as a “small...or mini-submarine” but it is reported as weighing 2,000 tons which is a full sized submarine! See this 2015 Submarine Matters' article about Losharik.

ARTICLE

The ABC News article, at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-07-03/russia-submarine-fire-kills-14-losharik-nuclear-vladimir-putin/11273188 begins:


“Fire on 'top secret Russian mini-submarine' kills 14 sailors, Vladimir Putin demands Defence briefing


The Russian Defence Ministry says 14 sailors have been killed in a fire on a navy submersible, with media reporting the stricken vessel is the country's most secret mini-submarine.
Key points:
·       Russian media reported the vessel was the nuclear-powered AS-12 Losharik, a mini-submarine
·       A Defence Ministry statement said the fire was put out thanks to the self-sacrifice of crew members
·       The incident happened near Barents Sea, where the Kursk nuclear submarine sank in 2000

The ministry did not say what the vessel was, explain how the fire broke out, or if there were any survivors.
Russian media reported the incident happened on the AS-12 Losharik, a small nuclear-powered vessel designed for sensitive missions at great ocean depths.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said the fire broke out while the vessel was measuring sea depths in Russia's territorial waters, and the submersible had since arrived at the Arctic port of Severomorsk, the main base of Russia's Northern Fleet.
"According to preliminary data, 14 sailors died from being poisoned by combustion products," he said.
In a televised meeting with his Defence Minister, President Vladimir Putin said two "Heroes of Russia" were among the dead, referring to the highest military award issued in the post-World War II period.
"This is not a regular vessel ... it's a scientific research vessel. It's a highly professional [Russian Navy] crew," he said.
"Seven out of the 14 dead are first-class captains, two are Heroes of Russia.
"It is a big loss for the fleet and for [the] army in general."
The Ministry said the fire was put out thanks to the "self-sacrifice of crew members" but did not say how many people were on board.
Norway [is] monitoring for radiation in Barents Sea
The blaze marks the most serious Russian naval incident since 2008, when 20 people died after a firefighting system was accidentally triggered while the Nerpa nuclear-powered submarine of Russia's Pacific Fleet was undergoing trials.
In the deadliest naval incident in post-Soviet Russia, the Kursk nuclear submarine exploded and sank on August 12, 2000, during naval manoeuvres in the Barents Sea, killing all 118 crew members.
The latest incident also took place in the vicinity of the Barents Sea, but authorities in nearby Norway said they were monitoring, but had not detected, abnormally high levels of radiation.
Per Strand, a director at the Norwegian Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, said Russian officials had told his agency that a gas explosion took place on board the submarine, though Russia denied this.
Secret vessel reportedly has a unique titanium hull design
The [Losharik] was constructed and launched under a veil of secrecy, but some details of the project have been reported by Russian media.
According to an archived [Russian language] report in Russian newspaper Izvestia, the [Losharik] was launched in 2003.
It is described as the most advanced and most obscure Russian submarine and is reportedly named after a Soviet-era cartoon character — a toy horse made of small spheres.
The name is apparently explained by the unique design of its internal hull, which is made of several titanium spheres capable of withstanding high pressure at great depths.
It is reportedly powered by a nuclear reactor and was built over a 15-year period under a veil of secrecy.
None of the claims have been independently confirmed...."
SEE THE WHOLE EXCELLENT ABC NEWS ARTICLE

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Further Background On Losharik

"Losharik" is a Russian nickname for a toy horse connected by spheres. The Losharik submarine contains at least 2 layers of Titanium alloy pressure hulls - with the innermost hull (or hulls) being spheres around the crew of about 25. It is nuclear powered for scientific, operational and secrecy reasons.

Losharik is also variously known as "Project 210", "Hull Number AS-31", Project 10831” and NATO reporting name "NORSUB-5".

A source with expert knowledge of Russian submarines advises that the Russian Navy/Government considers the manning of Losharik so difficult, dangerous and specialised that the crew are not called "submariners" but "Hydronauts" - a deep sea equivalent of Cosmonauts/Astronauts. Hence most "Hydronauts" are officers.

The much smaller US Nuclear Deep Submergence Vessel NR-1 is an earlier, equivalent example of a nuclear powered deep diving submarine. 

Pete 

July 2, 2019

Coming Military Crackdown in Hong Kong?


The radical rioters who stormed the Hong Kong Parliament in the past 12 hours (Youtube above) are reminiscent of the hopeful heroes who sat in Tiananmen Square in 1989. The world press are fooling themselves when they underestimate how Chinese military forces, responsible for Hong Kong, may react.



Radical rioters (photo above courtesy Reuters) smashing into the Hong Kong Parliament. Hundreds briefly occupied the Parliament. Note that the policemen behind the glass initially withdrew (surrendering the Parliament to rioter occupation) perhaps in order to provide a pretext for a more powerful crackdown soon.


Map indicates the location of Legislative Council Complex/Hong Kong Parliament that radical protesters smashed July 1-2, 2019. (Map courtesy Agency France Press via CAPITALNEWS)
---  

Surveillance of the rioters likely includes: records on surveillance cameras; smartphone tracking and  intelligence gathering; and, Chinese security (MSS) informers working undercover within the rioting group. There is also a possibility that Chinese government agent provocateurs operated to heighten the violence in the Parliamentary building. 


In terms of smartphone intelligence gathering MSS would have improved its capabilities compared to its 2014 anti-protester measures. It is likely the student protester's smartphones continue to be tapped by MSS working with China’s "NSA" (Peoples Liberation Army (PLA)-IT)(with various other real and cover-names-to-confuse). 

Reading INTELNEWS in 2014 MSS most probably exploited protesters reliance on downloads of the FireChat smartphone app. Security intelligence gathering malware was part of the app download. The malware gave MSS access to the address books, communication logs and other private data stored on the protesters’ smartphones. The malware also allowed MSS to take secret pre-protest planning group photos and at-protest individual and crowd photos using the cameras in the compromised smartphones. Quietly always-on smartphone microphone monitoring? So even if protesters were not actually arrested at the protest sufficient evidence was quietly collected to round them up days or weeks later. 

Military Crackdown?

So damage to the Hong Kong Parliament may provide a pretext for a paramilitary police and then a military crackdown. Perhaps a broader circle of democracy activists in Hong Kong will also be arrested.

The Beijing Government can suspend the legal convention that the PLA cannot interfere in Hong Kong's internal affairs. This is because the PLA has always had an underlying or active role in internal security for all regions of China. 

The 6,000 PLA troops based in Hong Kong can quickly be reinforced with several brigades of armoured vehicles from the mainland. The PLA's Hong Kong Garrison is under the direct leadership of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission and under administrative control of PLA's Southern Theater Command.

-------------------------------------

See my earlier article on the 2014 Hong Kong protests. The main difference now is radical smashing within Hong Kong’s Parliament will goad the Communist Party far more than the 
student-protestor 2014 sit-in (that stopped traffic on Hong Kong crossroads).

June 28, 2019

Japanese Submarine 29SS Has No Blended Sail

Kyle Mizokami, in his June 25, 2019 Popular Mechanics article, unfortunately was incorrect in predicting Japanese submarine class "29SS" would have a "sail... substantially reduced and blended into the hull". Also 29SS means the 29th year of the era of the former Japanese Emperor "Heisei" NOT a submarine that would appear in 2029 or shortly after.

The Popular Mechanics in question claimed:

"... 29SS retains the general hull form of earlier submarines but with some important changes. The sail is substantially reduced and blended into the hull, which should reduce hydrodynamic drag."



The artwork of the sub with the expected 29SS blended sail used Kyle's Popular Mechanics article.
--- 

"This will make the submarine quieter, perhaps a little faster, but also more energy efficient. Non-nuclear powered submarines, operating underwater under combat conditions, must carefully manage their power or risk being forced to surface. The dive planes have also been moved from what’s left of the sail to the hull.

...The research and development phase will take place from 2025 to 2028, and the first ship of this class will probably hit the water around 2031."

PETE COMMENT

Japan works on the basis of gradual, iterative, structural changes, submarine by submarine. So, 
29SS, is only slightly different from the preceding sub 28SS (the final sub of the Soryu class). 29SS, launched in October 2020, turns out the first sub of the Taigei-class (see the Table below). 


Note, 26 seconds into the youtube here and above, there are only slight outer structural differences with a very Soryu-like sail for Taigei class 29SS (SS-513).  

Also note that while some of Japan's subs partly rely on air independent propulsion (AIP)  indicated below, all of Japan's subs use diesel engines. It is not either/or.

Oyashio-Soryu-Taigei TABLE as at October 16, 2021.
 

SS
No.
Diesel Type
Motor
Build No
Name
Pennant
No.
MoF approved amount ¥
Billions FY
LABs, LIBs, AIP
Laid Down
Laun
-ched
Commi
ssioned
Built
By
5SS Oyashio
8105 Oyashio
SS-590/ TS3608
¥52.2B FY1993
2 x 12V25/25S 
diesels for all
Oyashio class
(each diesel
2,000kW)
LABs only
 Jan 1994
Oct 1996
Mar 1998
 KHI
6SS-15SS
Oyashios 
10 subs
SMC-7?
8106
-8115
various
SS-591-600
¥52.2B per sub
FY1994-FY2003
LABs only
 15SS Feb
2004
15SS
Nov
2006
15SS
Mar 2008
 MHI
&
KHI
16SS
Dragon
class  Mk I
8116
SS-501
¥60B FY2004 all Mk.1 LAB+AIP Soryus have 2 x Kawasaki 
4,240kW)
+ 4 AIP
SMC-8 motor
LABs + AIP
Mar 2005
Dec 2007
Mar
2009
MHI
17SS
8117
Unryū
SS-502
¥58.7B FY2005
LABs + AIP
Mar 2006
Oct 2008
Mar
2010
KHI
18SS
8118
Hakuryū
SS-503
¥56.2 FY2006
LABs + AIP
Feb 2007
Oct 2009
Mar
2011
MHI
19SS
8119
Kenryū
SS-504
¥53B FY2007
LABs + AIP
Mar 2008
Nov 2010
Mar
2012
KHI
20SS
8120
Zuiryū
SS-505
¥51B FY2008
LABs + AIP
Mar 2009
Oct 2011
Mar
2013
MHI
21SS LIBs Concept
Research
Project
No 21SS built. It was an 8 year research project on LIBs. 1st LIBs sub launched was 27SS in 2018.
   


22SS
8121
Kokuryū
SS-506
¥52.8B FY2010
LABs + AIP
Jan 2011
Oct 2013
Mar
2015
KHI
23SS
8122
Jinryu
SS-507
¥54.6B FY2011
LABs + AIP
Feb 2012
Oct 2014
7 Mar 2016
MHI
24SS
8123
Sekiryū
SS-508
¥54.7B FY2012
LABs + AIP
KHI
25SS
8124
SS-509
¥53.1B FY2013
LABs + AIP
22 Oct 2013
12 Oct   2016
MHI
26SS
8125
SS-510
¥51.7B FY2014
last SMC-8 motor
LABs + AIP
2014
6 Nov 2017
KHI
27SS a Soryu
"Mk II" as it
has LIBs. 1st
Soryu Mk II 
8126
Oryū
11th
Soryu
SS-511
¥64.4B FY2015 
with 2 12V25/25SB diesels (totaling 4,240kW) 
SMC-8B motor
Soryu Mk IIs may have twice as many batteries as Mk Is, ie 960 LIB-arrays in Mk IIs, other improvements
LIBs only
(SLH type)
Nov
2015
4 Oct
2018
2020
MHI
28SS Soryu
Mk II, 12th &
final Soryu
8127
SS-512
¥63.6B FY2016
"2,950t" surfaced
12V25/25SB diesels
LIBs
Jan 2017
KHI
29SS
1st
3,000 tonne
(surfaced)
8128
Taigei
SS-513
¥76B FY2017 (Heisei 29)
Higher ¥76budget 
may be due to 1st of class many changes & new layout of LIBs. 2 x
12V25/25SB
diesels or variants
(totaling
SLH
LIBs
maybe
960
month?in 
2017

14 Oct
2020
 
Mar 2022
MHI

30SS 
2nd Taigei Class 
8129?
Hakugei

SS-514
SLH
LIBs
2018?
March?
2023
KHI
01SS 
3rd
Taigei Class

SS-515
SLH
LIBs
maybe
960+
2019?
2022?
2024?
MHI
02SS 
4th
Taigei Class 
8130?
SS-516
¥B? FY2020 (Reiwa 02)
Improved SLH LIBS. New
2 x 12V25/31S
diesels (totaling
Impro
ved SLH
LIBs
2020?
2022?
2024?
KHI?
03SS
8131?
SS-517
¥B? FY2021
LIBs 
2021?
2023?
2025?
KHI?
04SS
8132?
SS-518
¥B? FY2022
LIBs
2022?
2024?
2026?
MHI?
05SS 
8133?
SS-519
¥B? FY2023
LIBs
2023?
2025?
2027?
KHI?
06SS
8134?
SS-520
¥B? FY2024
LIBs 
2024?
2026?
2028?
MHI?
07SS 
8135?
SS-521
¥B? FY2025
LIBs
2025?
2027?
2029?
KHI?
08SS 
8136?
SS-522
¥B? FY2026

LIBs
2026?
2028?2030?
MHI?
Key to Table: Table information provided by Anonymous to Submarine MattersLABs = lead-acid batteries, AIP = air independent propulsion, LIB= Lithium-ion Batteries. 
¥***B
 = Billion Yen. MHI = Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, KHI = Kawasaki Shipbuilding Corporation of Kawasaki Heavy Industries. 
---
Pete