Two Articles 1. Kuznetsov, 2. Nuclear South Korea, Will be Done

Great footage of Kuznetsov carrier operations.
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Submarine Matters aims to do 2 articles once a wide range of regional Trump Won briefings to Government have ended. Submarine Matters articles will include.

1. Implications of Russian Carrier Kuznetsov Airstrikes on Islamists in Syria, and

2. mainly South Korea Developing Nuclear Weapons and Propulsion (Japan?)

Regards

Pete

Japan will need to follow Australia's military example regarding the US

Pyne says Australia not a 'strategic bludger', flags 'immense' opportunities if Trump expands US military

Aussie troops, US Army and Marines, fought Japanese forces in New Guinea in WWII (1942 to 1945). (Photo courtesy US and Australian Army).

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The above photograph depicts US General Westmoreland, Commander, US Military Assistance Command Vietnam, speaking to Aussie troopers, C Squadron, 1st Armoured Regiment about the enemy attack (in 1968) on Fire Support Base Coral, Vietnam. (Photo Australian Army)

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The US and Australia utilised the ANZUS Treaty to back Australia's (ongoing) military support for the US in Afghanistan. The initial component of Australia's support was the SAS. (Photo above courtesy news(dot)com9dot)au. 

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COMMENT

Australia is a dedicated supporter of US military ventures overseas (photos above). Australia spends a reasonable amount of money on defence - at 1.9% of GDP. Australia stands to gain from US armed forces and defence budget expansion. 

Japan has its own foreign and defence policy traditions and attitudes. However, I would say, that to maintain full US support in Northeast Asia Japan will need to:

-  support US ventures overseas (especially in the Middle East, a region that produces

   most of Japn's oil), and 

-  pay around 2% of GDP rather than only 1% on Japanese defence spending, and 

-  Japan needs to begin a (probably secret) nuclear program, and

-  spend much more maintaining US forces in Japan/Okinawa.

I offer this advice freely, at no extra cost, to the Japanese Ministry of Defence (MOD).

ABC ARTICLE

Australia's Government supported news agency ABC Online reports, 16 November 2016, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-16/pyne-flags-immense-opportunities-if-trump-expands-us-military/8029466:

"Pyne says Australia not a 'strategic bludger', flags 'immense' opportunities if Trump expands US military

By political reporter Francis Keany

Updated 34 minutes ago

RELATED STORY: Trump flags plans to spend billions on fresh military build-up

RELATED STORY: Opinion: Trump presidency's exciting, unimagined opportunities

MAP: United States

The [Australian] Federal Government says Australia is well positioned to take advantage of a "gigantic" expansion of the United States military flagged by the incoming Trump administration.

[Australian] Defence Industry Minister Christopher Pyne also downplayed the prospect of the US demanding Australia increase its spending as a percentage of GDP.

Key points:

• Rudy Giuliani flags an aggressive expansion of America's military
• Government says as a close ally with the US the country is well positioned to benefit from the expansion
• Christopher Pyne says Australia is "pulling its weight" in both military spending and operations

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who is reportedly a leading contender to become the next US Secretary of State, flagged an aggressive expansion of American forces.

Mr Pyne said Australia's strong links with the US would benefit defence manufacturing at home.

He told a submarine industry conference in Canberra, based on comments by Donald Trump, a half-a-trillion-dollar expansion of the US military was possible.

"A hundred new planes, 70 new naval vessels, 50 to 60,000 new army, 12 new marine corps, the opportunities for Australia, because of our very close relationship with the United States, are boundless," he said.

"We already have amazing companies like Austal and CEA and others that are part of the US military spend, they could expand."

Mr Pyne said Australia was "pulling its weight" not just in military spending but in terms of military operations with the US.

"President-elect Trump has called countries around the world who are US allies and are not at 2 per cent [of spending] strategic bludgers," Mr Pyne said.

"Fortunately we are not strategic bludgers because we are at 2 per cent of gross domestic product, and given the spend of the Turnbull Government over the next 10 years, I imagine that will be surpassed at some stage in the future."

He said the Government was staying "in close contact" with Mr Trump's transition team.

"We are very much linked into the Trump team," Mr Pyne said.

Mr Giuliani earlier this week said Mr Trump's military strategy was focused around "peace through strength".

"If you face them with a military that is modern, gigantic, overwhelming and unbelievably good at conventional and asymmetrical warfare, they may challenge you, but I doubt it," Mr Giuliani said.

"I am a big advocate of military spending."

Pete

Connection to all the up-to-date Trump Transition Team details

All the up-to-date Trump Transition Team details are revealed HERE, including:

"Security enhancements

“Prior to Trump's return to his private residence at Trump Tower around November 10, the United States Secret Service initiated "unbelievable security measures", including:

-  closing East 56th Street to all traffic

-  reinforcing a cordon of sand-laden dump trucks that had been placed around the building the night

   before to defend the site from being rammed with a car bomb, 

-  deploying New York City Police Department tactical teams around the skyscraper, and 

-  the FAA, meanwhile, ordered a flight restriction over midtown Manhattan.”

Security arrangements around Trump's "log cabin" frays New Yorkers. Look Trump owns the street.  He's a Billionaire, its HIS Tower and he's the Next Prez. Respect!

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Defense-Navy Related Transition Team Structure and Staff

The Transition Team is divided the work into two areas: "agency action" led by Ron Nicol (a former nuclear submarine officer) and "policy implementation"….The agency side, which oversees appointments, is divided into six arenas. Three relevant to Submarine Matters are:

-  National Security, led by former Rep. Mike Rogers [former Chairman of the Permanent Select

   Committee on Intelligence]

-  Defense, led by Keith Kellogg, the former commanding general of the 82nd Airborne Division, and

-  RobertSmith Walker - former member of Congress from Pennsylvania and chair of the Hydrogen

   and Fuel Cell Technical Advisory Committee of the U.S. Department of Energy, is advising the

   transition on space policy"

Thankyou youtube and wikipedia :)

Pete

Russian Kilo subs and seabed sensors involved in 2 NATO submarines' detection

This depth-map indicates the choke-points (narrows) where both NATO submarines entered the Mediterranean Sea, ie. the US Virginia class through the Strait of Gibralter (on the map, extreme left) and the Dutch Walrus class (lower, right corner) near Port Said, Egypt.
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WALRUS (SSK) AND VIRGINIA (SSN) DETECTION DETAILS

Various Russian sensors were involved in the recent detection of two NATO submarines. Sensors included:

-  publically admitted, over-water (ASW helicopters) and surface ASW ships (see BACKGROUND)

-  (more secretly) Russian Kilo submarines, near stopped, operating at choke-points. 

-  equally secret were seafloor sensor arrays used: near the Strait of Gibraltar; another north of Port

   Said at the northern opening of the Suez Canal; and yet another outside of Russia's Tartus (Syria)

   naval base.

Russia's Main (Military) Intelligence Directorate (known as GRU) reported that a Dutch Walrus class submarine transiting the Suez Canal emerged into the Mediterranean Sea only to "rendezvous" with, be intercepted by, various ASW sensors.

GRU was already aware that the Dutch sub, after Indian Ocean regional ops, had then transited the  Suez Canal from south to north with a known time of emerging into the Med. This made it quite easy for a Kilo (from the Black Sea fleet) to cue or "rendezvous" with the Dutch sub. This Kilo gained valuable intelligence on characteristics of some upgrade work done on the Dutch sub.

The US Virginia class SSN had earlier been (predictably) tailing the Admiral Kuznetsov carrier group from a range of 70km. As the Virginia class sub transited the Strait of Gibraltar (traveling from west to east into the Med) it was detected by a fixed seabed sensor array (perhaps in cooperation with local assistance). The detection was later confirmed by Russian helicopter dipping sonars (active) and ship bow sonars.

GRU further reported that, by their behaviour, the Walrus and Virginia class subs positively detected the presence of the Kilo subs.

BACKGROUND

Allen Cone, for UPI reported on 9 November 2016 "Russia: Dutch sub tried to approach, spy on aircraft carrier" http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/11/09/Russia-Dutch-sub-tried-to-approach-spy-on-aircraft-carrier/6431478701381/

"(MOSCOW, Nov. 9 (UPI)) -- A Dutch submarine attempted to spy on a Russian aircraft carrier after approaching it in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, a Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said Wednesday.

The Northern Fleet's anti-submarine ships forced the sub to leave the area near Russia's Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov said in a statement.

"The clumsy attempts to carry out dangerous manoeuvres in the direct proximity of the Russian group of warships could have led to grave navigation consequences," he said.

He said two anti-submarine ships, Severomorsk and the Vice-Admiral Kulakov, at 6:50 a.m. spotted a Dutch navy sub, which neared the Northern Fleet's aircraft carrier group for surveillance purposes."

He said the crews "easily identified the submarine that was 20 kilometers [12.5 miles] away using the standard onboard hydroacoustics systems and data obtained from anti-submarine helicopters Ka-27 PL. Despite the submarine's attempts to evade surveillance, a stable hydroacoustic contact was established with it."

Konashenkov said they monitored the submarine for more than an hour and forced it to leave the carrier group.

"It is noteworthy that submarines of such class, having big displacement, are not fit for reconnaissance," the spokesman said.

The ministry official also said the Russian navy's aircraft carrier group regularly spotted NATO's submarines on its way to the Mediterranean.

Earlier this month, he said the USS Virginia was trying to spy on Russian vessels.

Last month, Russia's Northern Fleet's the Kuznetsov aircraft carrier, accompanied by the Pyotr Veliky battle cruiser, the Severomorsk and Kulakov, and support vessel were sent to the Mediterranean to hold drills and strengthen capabilities."

Please connect with Submarine Matters articles:

-  Russia set to unleash carrier aircraft and SLCMs on IS in Syria of  31 October 2016, and 

-  Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov may conduct first airstrikes (against IS), October 17, 2016.

Pete

Japan May Develope Nuclear Weapon Capability: US Alliance Uncertainty

In response to (now President-Elect) Trump's oft repeated questioning of the sanctity of alliances Japan has been quietly hedging, anticipating a gradual withdrawal of US extended nuclear deterrence. 

Japan has definitely developed two of the three essential components of a nuclear weapons capability:

1.  a viable nuclear weapon delivery system (see Japan's dual-use delivery system, the Epsilon rocket below), and

2.  a nuclear reprocessing program that, in part, yields the nuclear explosive of choice which is Plutonium. (also see)

3?  Over the last 65 years such an advanced nuclear energy power as Japan will have at least design plans under lock-and-key for the third element, a viable nuclear device. "During the Sato cabinet in the 1960's, it is reported that Japan secretly studied the development of nuclear weapons." 

With today's computer modeling Japan would not even need to test a nuclear device. Certainly Japan would have little trouble developing a fission device - given plans for such devices were distributed by the A Q Khan network decades ago.

A Japanese Epsilon rocket, with dual-use potential as a future nuclear armed ICBM, launched from Uchinoura Space Center, southern Japan, September 2013, carrying satellite.

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JAPAN'S DUAL-USE DELIVERY SYSTEM

Japan's Epsilon rocket (diagram above). Specifications for the Epsilon include: Height 24.4m, Diameter 2.5m, Mass 91 tons, 3 or 4 stages. Its shape, with no strap-on boosters, is ideal for silo, rail or truck launch. Reduced to 2 stages it might provide the basis for an SLBM.

These Epsilon specs are very similar to the developed but cancelled US MX missile ICBM. MXs specs are Height 22m, Diameter 2.3m, Weight 97 tons, 3 stages, blast yield 3 Mt total (using up to 10 MIRVs).

Modern ballistic missiles generally have solid fuel stages (for quicker preparation and more rugged handling) rather than liquid fuel typically used in civilian rockets. So it is notable that the first, second and third stages of the Epsilon are solid fuel.

A 2019 Epsilon rocket launch, carrying satellite.

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The extent to which the US assisted JAXA's Epsilon Project is unclear. Japan Aerospace eXploration Agency (JAXA) is Japan’s NASA equivalent. Space agencies have dual military-civilian use technology and dual-use career personnel. 

Pete

Report SENT to Donors "Actors & Some Influences on Trump’s Naval Policies"

One of Trump’s first naval-defense policy advisers, the ideologue Senator Sessions, is next to Trump. Sessions, like Trump, is an outsider in terms of Washington Establishment thinking (Photo courtesy Associated Press, 7 November 2016)

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Hi Donors

I've just emailed ACTORS AND SOME INFLUENCES ON TRUMP’S NAVAL POLICIES out to you as a WORD attachment. Please check your spam bin if you don't see it in your IN box.

For other readers wishing to receive  ACTORS AND SOME INFLUENCES ON TRUMP’S NAVAL POLICIES please donate A$50. Please use the Donate Button on the righthand Submarine Matters sidebar. Once I have received your Donation I will email this Report to you. Over the next 11 months I will then send you a special DONOR Report on the second Wednesday of each month. 

Regards

Peter Coates
Director
Submarine Matters International