Japan's VLS Concept Submarine

On December 12, 2023, Japan's Kawasaki Shipbuilding Corporation unveiled its new submarine Vertical Launch System (VLS) concept. I provisionally dub it the "J-VLS-SSB" concept. J-VLS-SSBs may follow Japan's Taigei-class once all Taigeis have been completed in the 2030s. J-VLS-SSBs may feature VLS forward of sail. Artwork via Naval News.

As JS Taigei itself is to be converted to a "test submarine" it may be the first Japanese submarine to trial a single or multiple vertical missile system.

For more on J-VLS-SSB see https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/12/kawasaki-heavy-industry-unveils-new-submarine-concept-with-vls/

Australia's Nuclear Missile Armed SSGNs

In response to "Good Putin’s" December 31, 2023 comments: 

Following likely nuclear weapon proliferation to South Korea (SK) and then Japan in the 2030s, Australia may see SSNs as future hypersonic nuclear missile armed SSGNs. The extreme amounts we are spending on AUKUS SSNs would then make "bang for the buck" sense. SSGNs are capable of quickly moving to threaten the Chinas and Russias of this world.

In contrast Australia's isolation makes diesel-electric powered VLS armed SSKs (called SSBs) deficient - be they SK KSS-3s, Swedish A26s or future Japanese VLS subs. Australia based SSKs or SSBs would have neither the range nor speed to be useful in Middle East or Taiwan Strait scenarios, against the Chinese or Russian mainlands, or against those countries’ nuclear subs. 

I think an Australian submarine VLS capability would also amount to overkill in our "arc of instability". China could well exploit that instability by taking over the sick men of the arc (the Solomons or East Timor). But hostile lodgements in these islands could be handled by RAAF aircraft with loyal Ghost Bats or the land or torpedo tube launch of our new Tomahawks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomahawk_(missile)#Australia   

If AUKUS SSNs don't eventuate then the US should have no excuse in blocking Australia from acquiring French Barracuda SSNs armed with MdCN land attack missiles or future French hypersonic missiles.

France, an Indo-Pacific Middle Power Ally

On December 30, 2023 Anonymous from France commented to the effect:

You [Pete] are right that the French are not a direct substitute for the superpower American alliance against China’s regional "assertiveness" (to be diplomatic).

You have to look through the French perspective.

As the result of hundreds of years, sometimes of colonial presence, about 2 million French citizens are scattered between the Mozambique Strait (in the western Indian Ocean) east to French Polynesia (mid Pacific Ocean). Those French territories [see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_France ] have the same status as the State of Hawaii has to the US.

These overseas French citizens, since 1945, have no desire to be independent. In the case of New Caledonia, 3 consecutive referendums over 20 years defeated  Melanesian nationalist urges, with New Caledonia remaining French. These citizen communities are heavily mixed ethnically and religiously. France’s string of regional alliances with friendly neighbours (eg. India, Australia) is natural and not "projecting power". The French military presence is commensurate with past threats (and "showing the flag").

France understands Australia’s belief in the American alliance against China. Contrary to popular belief the French are nor anti-American – there being a long history of French-American alliance, since 1778, and even earlier.

At the end of the day countries are alone - as the Ukrainians and Israelis will discover probably. [Pete comment: Lucky Israel has nuclear weapons to ensure its independence]. 

Trump [most likely to return as President] is clearly a transactional, mercantilist leader, raising alarm in NATO, but it is just clearer than before. Nothing new under the Sun.

As for Canada, France offered the Rubis SSN at the request of Canada. Canada has a premier LEU Nuclear infrastructure/industry. The veto came from the US to Canada and this is well documented and not the desire to not antagonize the US.

France’s relationship with China is not that different from the relationships to China of other EU members. France is heavily supplying systems to India. France also sold Mirage 2000s and modern La Fayette class frigates to Taiwan, and the current upgrades.

The irony is that Australia rejected the Japanese Soryu submarine deal in 2016 in favour of the French Naval Group Attack class SSK. Australia's rejection of Japan's Soryu was partly to maintain good relations with China...a great trading partner of Australia’s!

Submarine Reactors for South Korea and Japan?

In response to Anonymous from France’s December 30, 2023 comments:

If South Korea (SK) experiences great difficulties developing its own submarine reactors SK money may make France more willing to supply K22 or K15 reactor technology:

-  a changing reactor tech proliferation environment, led by the US and UK’s AUKUS reactor offers to Australia, has probably weakened the Western world's reactor proliferation taboo.

-  again SK and even Japan may be willing to offer high prices, making French naval reactor technology a highly profitable defence export item.

This may initially be for SK and Japanese SSBN (rather than SSN) reactors - such reactors need not be as miniaturised and operate on gradual acceleration and deceleration compared to SSN reactors. Their SSBNs may be bastion protected if in the near seas. Bastion protection may compensate for the more extended time for SK and Japan to develop more difficult SSN technology.

Your claim may well be accurate that the LEU K22 is probably very similar to the civilian NUWARD SMR proposed by Électricité de France (EDF) .

-  Yes SK, with its Small Modular Reactor (SMR) designs for the KEPCO BANDI-60 (60 MWe) PWR and KAERI SMART (100MWe) PWR, might eventually develop an efficient submarine reactor. 

Equally Japan’s JAERI MRX (30-100MWe) PWR may result in a submarine reactor. Also Japan’s operation of the Mutsu 36MWth nuclear powered civilian ship has given Japan some propulsion experience.

However SK or Japanese adoption of French, US or UK reactor tech could minimize extended indigenous development times and cost. This is why the UK pressed for a US S5W reactor installed in HMS Dreadnought (S101) in the early 1960s. Subsequently some US S9G reactor tech has reportedly gone into the UK’s latest reactor, the PWR3.

France Has Little to offer Australia Militarily: China

The wishful thinking that France might sell nuclear subs to Australia just won’t die off despite the evidence.

When, in 2016, Australia was seeking a "regionally superior submarine" which would have needed many characteristics of an SSN, Naval Group's Chief Executive Herve Guillou ambiguously told AAP on March 24, 2016:

"“If, in 2050, Australia wants a nuclear submarine, they can design a nuclear submarine,” see https://indaily.com.au/news/2016/03/24/france-pitches-nuke-sub-option-for-australia/

Hence Guillou was only floating a possible French SSN offer from 2050, that is  AFTER France completed the Attack class SSK contract to Australia. Why didn't French government owned Naval Group simply offer an SSN to Australia in 2016?

Later, in 2022, in the face of the US and UK's AUKUS submarine offer France’s President Macron said French Barracuda SSNs were not for sale to Australia. 

Macron said the sale of any nuclear submarines to Australia “risks increasing tensions with China and make Australia dependent on other countries.” See https://see.news/macron-warns-australias-nuclear-subs-deal-will-not-deliver of 18 November 2022.

France appears unwilling to risk alienating its higher priority trade partner China. 

On the broad political level the France-China relationship was raised to the level of “global strategic partnership” in 2004 which was reaffirmed in 2019.

During Macron's April 2023 visit to China he emphasised strategic autonomy, suggesting that Europe could become a "third superpower” less dependent on the US. As Australia is dependent on its major ally the US, Macron's de Gaulle like non alignment is of little help to Australia. 

Despite France describing itself as an Indo-Pacific military power I think it likely Macron sees France's military power in the region as slight. France simply cannot compete with China's rising regional naval power. France's entire permanent Indo-Pacific fleet centres on several aging light frigates of the Floreal-class (to be replaced by corvettes in 10 years time). This small surface force doesn't compare with the hundreds of more modern, larger ships of China's Navy. 

So France is aware of the limits of its power. It did not want to offer a complete SSN to Canada or to Brazil as this would anger the US and France does not want to offer an SSN to Australia as this would anger China.

France's New K22 reactor for Carrier & 3G SSBN

In response to Anonymous’s December 26, 2023 comment:

Yes I see France's larger 2030s onward single New Generation Aircraft Carrier (Porte-avions de nouvelle génération (PA-NG)) will use 2 x 220 MWt [ = 73 MWe?] K22 nuclear reactors. 

Also each of France's larger 2030s onwards 4 x Third Generation SSBN (Sous-Marin Nucléaire Lanceur d'Engins de Troisieme Génération (SNLE 3Gs)) will be powered by a K22 (see right sidebar).

Might France pass some K15 or K22 technology to South Korea for SK's KSS-3 Batch 3 SSBN program? SK's payment could help fund the high cost of the K22's development.