The wishful thinking that France
might sell nuclear subs to Australia just won’t die off despite the evidence.
When, in 2016, Australia was seeking a "regionally superior submarine" which would have needed many characteristics of an SSN, Naval Group's Chief Executive Herve Guillou ambiguously told AAP on March 24, 2016:
"“If, in 2050, Australia wants a nuclear submarine, they can design a nuclear submarine,” see https://indaily.com.au/news/2016/03/24/france-pitches-nuke-sub-option-for-australia/
Hence Guillou was only floating a possible French SSN offer from 2050, that is AFTER France completed the Attack class SSK contract to Australia. Why didn't French government owned Naval Group simply offer an SSN to Australia in 2016?
Later, in 2022, in the face of the US and UK's AUKUS submarine offer France’s President Macron said French Barracuda SSNs were not for sale to Australia.
Macron said the sale of any nuclear submarines to Australia “risks increasing tensions with China and make Australia dependent on other countries.” See https://see.news/macron-warns-australias-nuclear-subs-deal-will-not-deliver of 18 November 2022.
France appears unwilling to risk alienating its higher priority trade partner China.
On the broad political level the France-China relationship was raised to the level of “global strategic partnership” in 2004 which was reaffirmed in 2019.
During Macron's April 2023 visit to China he emphasised strategic autonomy, suggesting that Europe could become a "third superpower” less dependent on the US. As Australia is dependent on its major ally the US, Macron's de Gaulle like non alignment is of little help to Australia.
Despite France describing itself as an Indo-Pacific military power I think it likely Macron sees France's military power in the region as slight. France simply cannot compete with China's rising regional naval power. France's entire permanent Indo-Pacific fleet centres on several aging light frigates of the Floreal-class (to be replaced by corvettes in 10 years time). This small surface force doesn't compare with the hundreds of more modern, larger ships of China's Navy.
So France is aware of the limits of its power. It did not want to offer a complete SSN to Canada or to Brazil as this would anger the US and France does not want to offer an SSN to Australia as this would anger China.
4 comments:
Hi Pete
Again from a French reader
You are right that the French are not a direct substitute for the American alliance against China "assertivensess" in the area (to be diplomatic)
You have to look thru tje French perspective.
As the result of hundreds of years sometimes, of colonial presence,about 2 million French citizen are scattered beween the Mozambique strait and Polynesia.Same status in fact as Hawaii.Theses citizen , since 1945, have no desire to be independant .In the case of NC ,3 consecutive refendums over 20 years.. (with a biased electoral base in favor of the Melanesian,challenged by the FR Cpnstitutiona court an due to change).These are heavyly mixed ethnically , religiously, communities.A string of alliance with friendly neighbour (India, Australia..is natural and not "projecting power"the military presence is commlensurate to the past threats ("showing the flag")
Australia believes in the American alliance against China, and the French understand very well.Contrarily to a popular belief the French are nor anti american..having a long history, they are wary of eternal alliance..at the end ogf the day you are alone as the Ukr , the Israeli, will discover probably. Trump is clearly ,stated,transactional and mercantilist, raising alarm in Nato, but it is just clearer than before..Nothing new under the sun
As of Canada, France offered N sub at the request of Canada, which has a premier N (LEU)infra/industry,.The veto came from the US to Canada and this is well documented and not the desire to not antagonize the US
As for China the relartonship are not different that from other EU members (both needs)and France is heavyly supplying systems to India (and sold Mirage 2000 and modern frigates to Taiwan, and the current upgrades..)
The irony , is that Aus rejected the Japanes sub deal in 2015 in favor ofthe French ,partly in order to keep good relation toward China..a great customer..!
G'day Pete, how ya goin' mate?
In regards to this matter, Oz has erred on a massive scale. Firstly, Australia doesn't need SSNs. Secondly, as pointed out by another poster in another post the RAN is better off going the route of either getting the KSS-III Hanwha subs or the Blekinge subs of Saab since they can choose the Oceanic Extended type https://www.saab.com/products/expeditionary-submarines as both the SK and Swedish subs will/can be fitted with VLS if they see China as a sea threat.
Complete nonce going the route of wanting to get the Black sword Barracuda (sans nuclear propulsion).
Cheers!
Thanks "Good Putin" at 12/31/2023 12:37 AM
I have turned your comment into article "Australia's Nuclear Missile Armed SSGNs" of Jan 2, 2024 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/01/australia-nuclear-missile-armed-ssgns.html
Regards Pete
Thanks Anonymous French reader at 12/30/2023 7:16 PM
I have turned your comments into article "France, an Indo-Pacific Middle Power Ally"
of Jan 2, 2024
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/01/france-indo-pacific-middle-power-ally.html
Regards Pete
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