June 19, 2023

Australian Intelligence DGs Discuss AUKUS, etc.

On May 16, 2023 I wrote ASIO and AUKUS Submarine Security - Further Comments. 

Now Sarah Basford Canales for the Canberra Times, has written an excellent article dated June 15, 2023. Much of the podcast in it below is interesting: 

"ASIO boss Mike Burgess reveals foreign spies seeking to disrupt AUKUS, hunt for secrets"

"By Sarah Basford Canales

Updated June 15 2023 - 

Foreign spies are looking to get their hands on information relating to Australia's most secretive projects, including the AUKUS program, top spies have revealed.

 

The director-generals [DGs] of ASIO and the Office of National Intelligence, Mike Burgess and Andrew Shearer, have revealed efforts are already under way by adversaries to disrupt the trilateral technology-sharing deal between Australia, the US and the UK through disinformation and manipulation of opinion. 

 

"This is happening. It's real," Mr Shearer said.


Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced the decades-long nuclear-powered submarine program in March, alongside US President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

 

The estimated $368 billion program will allow Australia to become just the seventh country to have access to nuclear-powered propulsion technology after the US, the UK, France, China, Russia and India.

 

Speaking on [an ANU] National Security College podcast released [June 15, 2023], the two heads said the role of intelligence agencies was to thwart efforts seeking to undermine the deal.

 

Mr Burgess said ASIO had been originally formed [in 1949] in response to US and UK intelligence reports informing Australia it had been "penetrated with Soviet spies" and could not be trusted with secrets.

 

"Seventy-four years later, our allies, our mates, are sharing with us some of their most sensitive technology," he said.

 

"They trust us to protect those secrets. We know that to be true and as Andrew [Shearer] said, people are already coming after those [AUKUS] secrets and looking to interfere with this."


Mr Shearer, a former national security adviser to Tony Abbott, said it was the second pillar of AUKUS in particular that needed to be well-guarded.


Pillar two aims to give the three nations a technological edge to counter China.


"Another area where intelligence is working incredibly hard in concert with Defence and the wider government team [is] to make sure that we maximise the benefits of the partnership," Mr Shearer said. 

"And that obviously involves a whole lot of opportunities around the nuclear-powered submarine program but it also involves the new technologies that are being developed under pillar two of AUKUS, which goes to areas like hypersonics, quantum applications, sensing robotics, and so forth, just incredible opportunities for us." 

The ASIO head said Australia's open justice system and transparency could sometimes mean the agencies were at a disadvantage from adversaries seeking to "have a crack".


But Mr Burgess said his decision to take some of ASIO's work out from the shadows would make the country more secure.


"There's no point having this stuff if we're just putting it in a filing cabinet for government to read," he said.


"The reason why I started the threat assessment is I think I have to explain to the people of Australia the threats we face.


"There's no point just having a view of it and, of course, we could just have a view and take our own action and do all that quietly.


"But I think it's important, not to alarm them, but just to help them understand the world in which we live." 


 

Sarah Basford Canales Politics and public sector reporter

I'm a federal politics and public sector reporter with an interest in national security, integrity and regulation. Contact me with general tips and thoughts at sarah.basfordcanales@canberratimes.com.au or confidential tips to sbasfordcanales@protonmail.com 

June 15, 2023

Good & Bad News: US Virginias for Australia

Good news the US Congress is introducing 2 key bills that would speed up the AUKUS process. If the bills pass before Trump is possibly voted in on November 5, 2024 this may help save AUKUS. 

In May 2023 two Republican senators, Jim Risch, the most senior Republican on the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Bill Hagerty, introduced the TORPEDO Act  "Truncating Onerous Regulations for Partners and Enhancing Deterrence Operations (TORPEDO)". That bill would speed up the process of exporting certain US AUKUS related technology to Australia. This is relevant to AUKUS Pillar 1 (SSNs) and Pillar 2 (quantum technologies, artificial intelligence and undersea capabilities, etc). 

On June 9, 2023 Democrat congressman Joe Courtney along with Gregory Meeks and Ami Bera introduced the AUKUS Undersea Defense Act which would provides legislative authority to allow for the transfer of Virginia SSNs to Australia. The bill would also lead to the training of Australian private sector defence personnel, as well as the integration of Australian financial contributions to the US defence industrial base.

More see the Australian Financial Review 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 

Bad news that the influential US Government Accountability Office (GAO) has pointed to the serious production delays in Virginias earmarked for the US Navy. See this report. This might tend to persuade many more US admirals and politicians that Virginia production can only meet US needs at the expense of any AUKUS agreements.

More see the Washington Examiner

June 13, 2023

Canadian Submarine Replacement: A Long Term Project

There has been considerable discussion by submarine commentators (here and here) over the very long term Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP). The Canadian competition is to replace Canada’s Victoria-class with new subs commissioned in 15 to 25 years time. Canada needs a large submarine design to meet its under ice and oceanic long range, long endurance needs. Twelve conventional subs are envisaged, valued at around US$62 Billion (presumably including subs, training, spares and many other add-ons).

There has just been an announcement that two South Korean (SK) shipbuilding companies, Hanwha Ocean (was DSME) and HD HHI, are competing for the future Canadian order.  Apparently both SK companies signed a technical cooperation agreement with British defence firm Babcock on June 7, 2023 to strengthen their future bids. 

Mention of SK companies boosts expectations that KSS-3s might become contenders. KSS-3 Batch 2s offer AIP and LIBs for longer deep submergence. Important for Canada they should also offer longer and safer under ice performance. Japan’s two Soryu Mark 2s (see Oryu and Toryu at Table here) with AIP and LIBs also might be a future contender type. Japan's Taigei-class  with its higher tonnage of LIBs also might be a contender. Long snorting range of these large SK and Japanese subs also might be important for Canada’s three ocean needs.

Canada might take 5 to 10 years to select a winning design, so it is early days yet. If Canada joins AUKUS even (US permitting) the UK SSN-AUKUS design might be a contender for Canada in about 10 years time.

In part anticipating a multi-year gap between the withdrawal of the Victoria-class and introduction of a new class Canada is also developing an XLUUV undersea drone capability.

Canada might also be interested in the (likely 3,000+ tonne) winner of the Netherlands’ Walrus replacement competition. For that competition Germany is building large Type 212CDs, France is offering a conventional Barracuda “Shortfin”  design and Sweden is offering a large “Oceanic Extended Range” A26 design . These large Euro-sub contenders are waiting for a Dutch decision in the mid-late 2020s.

However SK and Japan still have the advantage of operating at sea AIP and LIBs in large submarines. Italy’s AIP and LIBs Type 212NFS suffers from its small size and might need TKMS approval for any export to a third country.

Canada’s future submarine competition is yet another long term project that SubMatts periodically will return to. 

June 9, 2023

Some Shangri-La Dialogue 2023 Information

Singapore has been hosting the annual International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) inter-governmental security conference at the Shangri-La Hotel since 2002. The latest SLD, held June 2 – 4, 2023 (hence SLD23) boasted more than 600 delegates from 49 countries, including many senior politicians and military personal.

As the SLD includes increasing rivals, China and the US, the SLD has risen in importance. 


Video here and above. Chinese Defence Minister General Li Shangfu met with Singapore's Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen in Singapore on June 1, 2023, for talks the day before the SLD. ---

Shawn Chung reports: 

What's said in the public addresses rarely deviate from established rhetoric. 

A Chinese PLA Lieutenant Colonel was seen 'claiming' seats before US SECDEF’s speech.. but it's a very Chinese-thing to do. In Singapore this is a common practise called "chope" in singlish. But we Singaporeans use tissue paper packs at the hawker centre. I don’t know how PRC flag stickers, the Lieutenant Colonel used, will go down... 

On the sidelines, the security intelligence meeting between two dozen countries was actually reported on, a little, by Reuters.

Singapore's diplomatic corps is known for utilizing protocol as an art form... but note the seating arrangements with the Defense Minister (DM) Dinner,
 hosted by Singapore. Sitting next to Singapore's DM was the American SecDef on his right, and the Ukraine DM on his left. While the PRC DM sat directly opposite him, with the Australian DM to his left. Go figure!

Around SLD23 Singapore signed a defense equipment and technology deal with Japan...  

Rolldock Storm Carrying RSS Impeccable

Heavy lift ship Rolldock Storm (carrying Invincible-class submarine RSS Impeccable from Kiel, Germany to Singapore) was last tracked along the coast of Western Sahara taking the Cape route (around Africa) to Singapore. The ETA in Singapore is August 1. So the crew of the RSS Impeccable will have a frantic week to get the submarine unloaded and ready for its unveiling at Singapore's 57th National Day on August 9th, 2023.

Shawn Chung
June 9, 2023
 

Pete Comment

Regarding the SLD23 security intelligence meeting spies advise: 

As Russia did not attend that meeting impacts of its invasion and occupation of Ukraine were discussed. Also transnational crime (people smuggling, drugs, weapons smuggling and piracy). Counter-terrorism was another shared issue.

June 8, 2023

TKMS One Step Forward In India's Slow P-75(I) Process

The current visit of German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has seen an MOU signed by TKMS with Indian shipyard Mazagon Docks, announced June 7, 2023. This is aimed at securing local manufacture in Mumbai of six AIP equipped Type 214s or maybe variant 218s. 

This does not mean India’s selection of TKMS designed subs under Project-75(I) is a done deal. Another strong competitor is South Korea’s DSME which may be offering KSS-IIIs. KSS-IIIs feature at least 6 VLS and largely South Korean developed AIP. As KSS-IIIs are much larger designs than 214s/218s they are likely to cost India much more. But India may appreciate the value of KSS-III’s VLS as useful launch modes for K-15 nuclear missiles (or newer ballistic or hypersonic missiles) mainly against Pakistan.

There may be considerable delay until a 75(I) winner is announced. India does not have a reputation of being a rapid, decisive, selector of complex weapon systems. Also TKMS and DSME might continue to see onerous 75(I) contractual conditions covering such things as liability and tech transfer, as obstacles that may demand years of further bargaining.

June 7, 2023

Philippines: State of Submarine Forces in ASEAN 2023 – 7

The seventh ASEAN country, this time seeking a future submarine force, in my series, concerns the Philippines.

2 or 3 boats possible.

 

Probably the Chang-Bogo-class or Scorpene-class

 

Another country that has long aspired to have a submarine service is the Philippines. The much anticipated program aiming to procure submarines, began in 2014. This was part of an extensive fleet modernisation program. Submarine procurement plans were delayed in October 2022 in the face of limited funds and higher priorities.


The Philippine Navy has a huge task adequately protecting all of the sea space to the north, south, east and west of the many Philippine islands and also between those islands. Map courtesy Encyclopedia Brittanica.
---
 

Nevertheless, the two submarine models most often mentioned for procurement are the French Naval Group designed Scorpene-class, and the South Korean DSME Improved Chang Bogo-class a variant of German TKMS designed Type 209. These were shortlisted by the Phillipines Navy as of 2019.  PHDefenseResource has a comprehensive page on Philippines' selection steps and thinking.

 

Naval Group is in broader ‘duel’ with DSME for Indonesian submarine contracts as well. This may lead to DSME offering the Philippines very favourable loan terms for their submarines. This is especially as South Korea and the Philippines are extending their military ties more broadly, with the Philippines already operating two South Korean built Jose Rizal-class light frigates from from HHI and 12 KAI FA-050PH aircraft.

 

For Naval Group’s part, it could conceivably now offer Scorpene variants built by India's Mazagon Docks (the Kalvari class) or by PT PAL in Indonesia (if Scorpenes win the Indonesian submarine tender). France is already training a small number of Philippine Navy sailors on submarine operations. 

As of May 2023 this submarine acquisition project is still active. As with most submarine projects the period between winning a tender and first commissioning a submarine may be up to 15 years.

Shawn Chung

June 7, 2023