Japanese VLS Submarines?: Nuclear Warhead Tendency

PETE COMMENT

Looking at Wispywood2344's article below, my own research and here. Japan has begun a research program of SSK submarine firing land attack missiles (categorised as "cruise" "ballistic" "hypersonic" "standoff" or a combination in one or two missiles). Japan's research extends to launch by torpedo tube (in the Israeli Dolphin SSK or UK Astute SSN fashion) or possibly vertically launched systems (VLS).

If 533mm torpedo tube fired Japan's existing Soryu and Taigei class SSKs, which already fire torpedoes, ASMs and mines, could be retrofitted (say within the next 5 years = 2028) to fire land attack missiles.  

If the Japanese Government decides on VLS this may be:

A.  by new post Taigei-class SSKs, less likely to carry nuclear warheads. Japan's practice of usually building 10 SSKs per class, tends to indicate a new class, which may have VLS, would be laid down in 2029 with commissioning in 2034.

or 

B.  for a dedicated hypersonic/ballistic missile carrying SSK known as a conventional submarine with ballistic missiles (SSB) more likely carrying a nuclear warhead option from the late 2030s. My reasoning being "Why would South Korea (SK) and Japan go to the expense of building a class of SSBs if their principal weapon, hypersonic/ballistic missiles, are merely conventionally armed" and "For a nuclear armed target country (eg. NK) SK and Japanese missiles would be considered "nuclear/conventional warhead ambiguous" and in any case would prompt "NK to use its nuclear weapons or risk losing them - leading to an NK nuclear response". 

Either A. or B. could be useful for pre-emptive or second strikes against military or command targets in China, Russia (and islands owned by either) or more likely against North Korea (NK).

Japan's VLS study has an element of design-capability competition with South Korea's KSS-III SSBs, including the tendency of SSBs to be nuclear armed. Noting  it is highly unlikely that South Korea would ever by Japan's target. 

As conjectured above a Japanese SSB would tend towards eventually carrying nuclear warheads. Or Japanese SSBs would be further encouragement for the US to maintain its existing (though increasingly unlikely) nuclear umbrella protecting Japan.

See varying US attitudes, over time, to the possibility of South Korean and also Japanese nuclear weapon programs right up to 2016 https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/henry-kissinger-nuclear-vault/2017-03-22/stopping-korea-going-nuclear-part-i

ARTICLE

Wispywood2344, on Jan 8 2023 commented:

The Japanese government has decided to make a major military build-up and has declared that the defense budget for FY2023 will be 27% higher than in FY2022. [1]

It also announced a policy of developing weapons such as [medium-long ranged] standoff missiles.

Here, I would like to introduce matters related to submarines. 

(A) Development of [Japanese] VLS-equipped submarines [4] 

(B) Submarine-launched missiles

Two types of cruise missiles will be developed.

One will be launched from a torpedo tube and probably fly at subsonic speeds. [5][9]

The other will probably be launched from a VLS and fly at hypersonic speeds. [2]

The latter has a land-launched version, reportedly has a range of 2000-3000 km. [8][10]

 (C) Procurement of new torpedoes

The quieter version of the Type 18 torpedo. [3]

The development project to apply a new turbine engine has been underway since FY2018 and will be completed as planned. [8] 

(D) Research on UUV control technology

Establish target detection, class identification, motion analysis technology using passive sonar onboard UUVs, automatic obstacle avoidance technology, and position control technology using inter-UUV underwater communication. [7]

For new information on standoff missiles such as HGM, please refer to the list I prepared if you are interested. [11]

[1] FY Reiwa05(2023) Defense Programs and Budget of Japan

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/yosan/yosan_gaiyo/2023/yosan_20221223.pdf#page=5

[2] ibid.

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/yosan/yosan_gaiyo/2023/yosan_20221223.pdf#page=12

*Look at a submarine firing "極超音速誘導弾" (Hypersonic Cruise Missile).

[3] ibid. 

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/yosan/yosan_gaiyo/2023/yosan_20221223.pdf#page=31

[4] Defense Force Development Plan : Composition of the JSDF

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/agenda/guideline/plan/plan_03.html

[5] FY Reiwa04(2022) preliminary project evaluation : Submarine launched missile

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/hyouka/seisaku/2022/pdf/jizen_11_honbun.pdf

[6] FY Reiwa04(2022) preliminary project evaluation : Research on hypersonic cruise missile

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/hyouka/seisaku/2022/pdf/jizen_02_honbun.pdf

[7] FY Reiwa04(2022) preliminary project evaluation : Research on UUV control technology 

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/hyouka/seisaku/2022/pdf/jizen_03_honbun.pdf

[8] FY Heisei28 (2017) preliminary project evaluation : New torpedo equipped with silent engine

https://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/11591426/www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/hyouka/seisaku/29/pdf/jizen_12_honbun.pdf

[9] Summary of Proceedings of the 43rd Expert Committee on Policy Evaluation of the MoD

https://www.mod.go.jp/j/approach/agenda/meeting/seisaku/pdf/gijigaiyou43.pdf#page=4

*An outside expert asked about the missile's launcher, and the official replied "Conventional torpedo tube is considered".

[10] Asahi Shimbun (newspaper) [article translates as it is in html] : Long-range missiles will be deployed in phases "in 5 years" and "in 10 years".

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASQDW5QBXQDVUTFK00B.html

[11] http://blog.livedoor.jp/wispywood2344/others/Japanese_Stand_Off_Missile_Development.html

Australian Nuclear Deterrent: French Missile Help?

The Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter (APDR) carries a very interesting article: French “Arianespace Increases Engagement With Australian Industry” of January 11, 2023.

PETE COMMENT

French-Australian space cooperation would be a useful addition to Australia’s very long range military missile prospects. This would be an alternative to Australia’s Abbot Point (Gilmour) Spaceport project which is heavily US orientated. 

It is significant that civilian ArieneSpace’s military associate is French ArianeGroup which designed France’s latest M51 SLBM – basically a submarine launched ICBM. 

France Helping Israel

The extent of French booster/missile help to Israel might have possibilities for Australia.  Going back to the early 1960s a past generation of French dual civilian-military rocket/missile technologists, working for Dassault, assisted Israel with the Syria-Egypt targeted Jericho I SRBM and Israel’s nascent satellite launch industry. 

Covert French contractor assistance later contributed to Israel’s:

-  Jericho II MRBM within range of Arab, Turkish and, of course, Iranian targets, 

and

–  Jericho III ICBM which entered service in 2011, with possible targets including Pakistan, Russia and China.

The Jericho III has booster commonalities to Israel's Shavit 2 space launch vehicle, which, launched in Israel, can deploy large Low Earth Orbiting military satellites. 

Australia is already experiencing the US’s typical mixed-message, indecisive signals that it won't supply Virginia SSNs. This signals that Australia cannot rely on the US to assist in the more politically difficult Australian nuclear weapon capability. 

The US has an unpredictable and inconsistent non-proliferation position  versus de facto acceptance of new nuclear weapon "haves" (eg. India and Israel) record to uphold.

Israel and France’s nuclear weapon industry (less reliant on US Anglosphere direction) might assist an Australian ICBM, SSK or SSN hypersonic missile and aircraft delivered nuclear weapon program. 

In that regard Australia can barter secure re-entry landing and other testing services at Woomera, other space observation facilities, submarine communication facilities and Uranium as part “payment” for French-Israeli assistance.

Helicopters Collide : Australian Gold Coast

As well as subs and other weapons this blog covers major transport mishaps. jbmoore from Texas kindly drew my attention to the video, here and above, concerning the tragic Australian Gold Coast, Queensland, Helicopter Collision of Jan 2, 2023. 

The video by California pilot/air safety analyst Juan Browne, provides vastly more detail than has been provided by the Australian mainstream media to Australians.

Particularly note:

3:56 onwards "was there anything different on the day of the accident

regarding the [helicopter = "helo"] landing patterns and take-off patterns"

4:40 both helos were in respective pilot "blind spots" (in part caused by new, unfamiliar seating arrangements, in the NEW helos the pilots were probably getting used to)

5:57 a view that was screened on Aus media

8:07 the blind spot problem is well known in the helo industry generally

Both helos seemed to be flying too low (eg. below the height of the tallest buildings around them) for "ADSB" navigation network which could have alerted air traffic controllers and the pilots to the oncoming crash.

9:30 did the helo flights, every 5-10 minutes, represent too high a number of air movements, leading to lapses in inter-helicopter communication, lower  "situational awareness" and too high a workload for the pilots?

10:00 Juan Browne raises many other questions and issues.

US Nuclear Weapon Sharing Under AUKUS? Addition.

The US program of sharing a few nuclear weapons with some Western European countries (and with Turkey) is a more sensitive subject of corridor discussions under AUKUS.

The Western European/Turkish nuclear delivery platforms are joint strike fighters (eg. F-16s increasingly F-35As) armed with "dial-a-yield" B61 nuclear free-fall bombs. "In case of war, the United States has told NATO allies the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) would no longer be in effect".

Any sharing with Australia would need to involve much longer range delivery platforms eg. costly B-21 very long range bombers if sold to Australia (possible publicity 2023 as anti-shipping strike aircraft), possibly Aus and US developed ICBMs by (say) 2033, and future Aus SSNs that could be hypersonic cruise missile capable (2040s). 

Regarding SSN platforms 4 or perhaps 12 (3 per Virginia Payload Tube (VPT)) vertically launched hypersonic missiles, called Long-Range Hypersonic Weapons (LRHWs), could be carried on each SSN. LRHWs, with a range of 3,000km, may be deployed by the US Army as early as 2023 and on USN Virginia SSNs by the late 2020s. UK SSN(R)s, maybe available in the 2040s, might also be armed with 4 VPTs (hence 12 hypersonic missiles). 

Back to Western Europe/Turkey regarding longer range delivery platforms :

"Historically, the shared nuclear weapon delivery systems were not restricted to bombs. Greece used Nike-Hercules Missiles....PGM-19 Jupiter medium-range ballistic missiles were shared with Italian air force units and Turkish units with U.S. dual key systems to enable the warheads.[9] PGM-17 Thor intermediate-range ballistic missiles were forward deployed to the UK with RAF crews."

Joint UK-Australia Nuclear and Missile Tests

In 1946 the Aus-UK Joint Weapons Project was formed, based around the establishment of a long-range weapons testing facility at Woomera (see maps above). Subsequently IRBM tests in/from Woomera and Aus-UK nuclear weapon tests were conducted at Maralinga within Woomera. Woomera remains the largest land-based test range in the Western world and has the second highest number of rocket launches internationally after Cape Canaveral.

Back to US-Australia

The beauty of Aus ICBMs is that US personnel (with one of the keys' authority) could be joint based. The location of a 100? hardened silo missile area would ideally be in central Australia (to give the longest launch on warning decision period). If it had to be based south of the most central location then the northern portion of the 122,188 km2 RAAF Woomera Range (aka Prohibited Areas) Complex (see maps above) long defence land might be acceptable. 

There could be a AUS-US dual key/code system to enable the ICBM warheads. Also a AUS-US dual key/code system to arm Aus B-21 bombs/ASMs and the SSNs' hypersonic SLCMs may be practical. 

Chinese submarines, with hypersonic/ballistic missiles, in coastal waters south of Woomera would be the greatest threat to Aus and?or US ICBMs in their silos. The seabed sensor system emplaced for many years around Australia would need to be further upgraded and weaponised (including smart sea mines), to counter this Chinese threat. Otherwise the Aus ICBM second strike decision period, and rush to get Aus B-21s in the air, would be highly compressed.  

Australia Needs Nuclear Weapons One Way or Another

To face the China threat (particularly post-Taiwan takeover) Australia will need to develop its own nuclear weapons, with non-US or non-UK help, if required, eg. help from Israel? This is if:

-  the US (or maybe UK) refuse to share nuclear weapons with Australia

- this is especially if the US decides it cannot sell Virginias to Australia

and

-  if the UK only has the SSN(R) option: meaning UK-Aus SSNs available too late, in the 2040s-2050s. 

However Woomera could contain a permanent High Level Radioactive Waste dump noting Australian Defence Minister Mares is talking about such a dump to be on current or future Defence land. Not only Australian waste but perhaps US and UK waste could use it. This concept might have already been floated under classified (very non-public) AUKUS agreements. Such waste access might constitute a major barter item for Australia to build a nuclear weapon capability under US "shelter". 

"My" Kangaroos and the Wombat Beast

Southeastern Australia has "enjoyed" or been flooded by, heavy rain for three long years since the bushfires.

The Kangaroos that I see from my back window every day are happy with all this rain - with many little Joeys baby Kangaroos. 

The Wombat. Note the muscular forearms and sharp claws.
(Photo from The Guardian 2016)
---

Years of rain have also caused a population explosion in Wombat numbers. Edging aside many Wombies to dig their holes in suburban back yards - like mine. 

A wild Wombat on a likely "Get out of my way" breeding mission drilled several holes under my back fence. It half way dug a breeding  trench in my back yard. Distracted, it then drilled under my gate - several times. This worried me as a homeowner. The wombat Beast (all 35kgs) came out at night to dig and was so strong it kicked back bricks with gusto. 

During the day I filled in the holes as fast as The Beast dug them. And after consulting my friendly local SAS unit, I drove in wooden stakes to block the gaps under the fence and the gate. 

I triumphed! The Beast gave up and didn't return. I was proven correct in suspecting it was a Mum to be. It dug a trench for its babies (also called joeys) in a luckless neighbour's back yard.

I feel no remorse. In anti-Wombat Guerrilla warfare one takes no prisoners. 

The Beast breeds and still lives - but Not In My Back Yard. Not this year.

Pete the NIMBY

Lowy Institute Commentaries Interesting

Commentaries of Australia's Lowy Institute re Defence & Security look interesting.