Indonesian, Australian, Indian, Dutch & Soviet Issues

Indonesia's heavy cruiser, Kri Irian, served Indonesia in an unconventional role before disappearing in the 1970s.
---    

On Indonesia's concerns about future Australian SSNs, Indian-Indonesian relations (1960s-70s) and the extraordinary growth of the Indonesian Navy (1950s-60s) Gessler on July 31, 2022 commented:

Hi Pete (and others reading this)

I'm not really aware of the security & diplomatic equations between Australia & ASEAN, so for my sake please entertain this line of thought:

Perhaps certain ASEAN countries (Indonesia in particular) view Australia as a potential future adversary? And if they do, then its obvious that they would prepare not for what the adversary says he will do, but rather for what he is capable of doing. Perhaps Indonesia fears that with RAN operating nuclear submarines, Australia will attain a massive unassailable lead in military terms vis-a-vis Indonesia?

Allow me to tell you why I'm thinking in this way...back in the 60s & 70s, the relationship between Indonesia and my country (India) wasn't very good. At one point, the Indonesians had laid claim to the Nicobar island chain (the southern part of [India’s] Andaman and Nicobar Islands), and were carrying out military intrusions & illegal patrols, not unlike what China is doing in the South China Sea today. Indonesia was also openly on the side of Pakistan during the 1965 war, including providing material assistance. 

This Indian article below sums up a lot of that history (along with an overview of Indonesia's subsurface naval history). Later though, things took a positive turn [between India and Indonesia] and all disputes were abandoned. Though I'd wager India's [“Smiling Buddha”] nuclear weapons testing in 1974 had a lot to do with it. This is along with the fact that the power dynamic between India and Indonesia shifted vastly into India's favour over the decades, especially on the naval front,. This would have made the pursuit of a refreshed Nicobar Islands dispute a not-so-wise decision.

Do you suppose Indonesia fears a similar thing happening vis-a-vis their equation with Australia? Getting potentially "boxed in" by nuclear powers (or at least, nuclear navies) to their north & south, all the while getting needled by the Chinese, can't be an enviable position as far as geopolitics go.

I still think that if push comes to shove, Indonesia will throw its lot in with the QUAD/Western alliance rather than with China...but I can't help but see this as the sort of thing that could change if the political dispensation in Jakarta changes. Note that I do not follow Indonesian politics, just saying that political re-alignment always remains a distinct possibility in a time of global instability like the current.

Pete Comment

The Indian article Gessler has identified, is very interesting.

The link recounts: "In his book Transition to Triumph: Indian Navy 1965-1975, retired Indian Navy Vice Admiral G.M. Hiranandani traced the dizzying growth of the Indonesian Navy" with words to the effect:

Between 1959 and 1964, the Indonesian Navy had acquired an enormous fleet from the Soviet Union, including:

-  1 heavy cruiser: Kri Irian 
-  18 destroyers and frigates
-  12 Whiskey-class submarines
-  67 corvettes and motor torpedo boats
-  12 missile boats
-  21 minesweepers
-  11 landing ships
-  6 landing craft
-  4 transport ships, and
-  4 oilers.

My first thoughts include Indonesia being insufficiently wealthy in the 1950-60s, to afford a huge fleet. Indonesia had an independent naval history only going back to 1945. Hence, I think Indonesia would have been hard pressed to man one-fifth of the 156 vessels that the Soviets allegedly sold to Indonesia.

Presumably the Soviets provided the huge fleet out of anti-colonial internationalism, to strengthen Indonesia as an ally and most likely to free all of Indonesia from the Soviet's enemy, the Netherlands. This last was seen clearly in Operation Trikora. The section on Soviet sailors and airman wearing Indonesian uniforms in Trikora is most interesting

I’d be very interested to hear from readers about what happened to the majority of the 156 vessels sold to Indonesia.

Chinese Ship Intercepting Indian Communications

Yuan Wang 5 interception ship (Photo courtesy News18).
--- 

Ghalib Kabir commented August 2, 2022.

A Chinese SIGINT and missile instrumentation ship [the 25,000 tonne Yuan Wang 5, photo above] was due to dock in at Hambantota, Sri Lanka on August 11. 2022. It could potentially snoop on Indian ELF submarine communication facilities close to North Sri Lanka besides other naval installations on India's South East Coast. 

The dual standards are galling. Beijing was hopping mad when USN missile instrumentation ships sailed 'close by' to China and now have the temerity to lecture India to not be upset.

Pete Comment

As well as all sorts of Sri Lankan communications INS Kattabomman, a submarine command radio station on the southern tip of India, might be a prime candidate of Chinese interception ship interest. Even if China hasn't cracked India's naval codes this large Chinese ship can perform signals traffic analysis that reveals much about the workings of India's navy. 

Depending on where Yuan Wang 5 sails, it can also intercept much from India's civilian (eg. NTRO), defence, army, airforce and Navy shore bases and from Indian ships. 

Also if India happens to be testing K series SLBM or Agni series ICBM missiles Yuan Wang 5's communications and telemetry interception capabilities could glean much.

Pelosi Crisis: Chinese Blockade of Taiwan

 

China breaching Taiwan's sea and airspace in the Taiwan Strait, west of Taiwan, has been continuing for years, but the Pelosi Crisis has changed all that. Since Pelosi arrived in Taiwan and has now left it, China is holding live fire drills actually surrounding Taiwan. This is deterring airlines and shipping from traveling to-from Taiwain - effectively a blockade situation. (Map/Graphics courtesy Taiwan's Focus Taiwan).

Pelosi usurping US Presidential dominance in Taiwan-China policy has made things worse.

The Guardian reports August 4, 2022: 

"...China is to begin a series of unprecedented live-fire drills that would effectively blockade the island of Taiwan, just hours after the departure of US House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, whose controversial visit this week has sparked fears of a crisis in the Taiwan strait.

Taiwan has characterised the drills, which will last until Sunday afternoon – and will include missile tests and other “military operations” as close as nine miles to Taiwan’s coastline – as a violation of international law.

While China’s military often holds live-fire exercises in the strait and surrounding seas, those planned for this week encircle Taiwan’s main island and target areas within its territorial sea.

Ahead of the drill, it said 27 Chinese warplanes had entered its air defence identification zone, including flights over the median line – the unofficial border in the Taiwan strait. On Wednesday night two suspected drones flew over Taiwan’s outlying Kinmen Island, with Taiwan’s military firing flares in response...."

"Taipei Nancy" Pelosi Worsens Taiwan Crisis

Back in 1972 a "saintly" "Hanoi" Jane Fonda does herself no favours by manning a North Vietnamese anti-US aircraft gun.
---

Pete Comment: 

The term "Taipei Nancy" evokes the unfortunate intervention of "Hanoi Jane".

US House of Representatives Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, out of personal inclination, as she has no role in US defense or foreign policy, is needlessly stirring up China by visiting Taiwan. 

President Biden, on the advice of the US State, Defense Departments and CIA, had been suggesting for weeks Pelosi not go. But aging Biden's grasp of many things seems to be slipping - and Xi knows it. 

The US still officially subscribes to the One-China Policy. But China's increasingly aggressive statements and actions together with contradictory comments from Biden, versus his own officials, are much mess making. 

ARTICLE

The Guardian reports August 3, 2022, in part:

Nancy Pelosi has landed in Taiwan for a controversial visit to the self-ruled island, offering “unwavering commitment” to supporting its democracy as already heightened tensions with China escalate.

Timed with her arrival, China’s ministry of defence said the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had been put on “high alert” and announced a series of targeted military operations, including missile tests in the waters east of Taiwan and drills encircling the main island for four days after Pelosi leaves.

China, which regards Taiwan as its territory, has repeatedly warned of retaliation for the visit. Shortly before Pelosi’s arrival, Chinese state media reported that Beijing’s Su-35 fighter jets were flying across the Taiwan strait.

Taipei subsequently dismissed the announcement as “fake news”.

China summoned the US ambassador in Beijing to rebuke him over Pelosi’s “egregious” trip to Taiwan, state media reported on Tuesday night. The deputy foreign minister, Xie Feng, voiced “strong protests” over Pelosi’s visit during his talk with Nicholas Burns.

The US House of Representatives speaker’s plane landed at Songshan airport in Taipei at about 10.45pm local time (17.45 BST) on Tuesday. She was greeted by Taiwan’s foreign minister, Joseph Wu, and the US representative in Taiwan, Sandra Oudkirk, and is expected to meet the president, Tsai Ing-wen, on Wednesday morning.

Pelosi tweeted shortly after her arrival that the visit honoured the US’s “unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan’s vibrant democracy”.

She said: “America’s solidarity with the 23 million people of Taiwan is more important today than ever, as the world faces a choice between autocracy and democracy.”

An opinion piece by the House speaker, published by the Washington Post after she landed, said Beijing had intensified tensions with Taiwan and “this vibrant, robust democracy – […] proudly led by a woman, President Tsai Ing-wen – is under threat”. Her article also referenced China’s actions in Hong Kong and Tibet, and a “genocide” against Uyghurs.

She continued: “In the face of the Chinese Communist party’s (CCP) accelerating aggression, our congressional delegation’s visit should be seen as an unequivocal statement that America stands with Taiwan, our democratic partner, as it defends itself and its freedom.”

Taiwan’s party of government, the Democratic Progressive party, said it admired and respected Pelosi’s “moral courage”.

It said: “No threatening remarks or provocative actions can reduce even slightly the determination of Taiwan and its international friends to defend democracy and freedom.”

...The visit appeared to have prompted high levels of military movement and preparations by the Chinese, Taiwanese and US militaries.

The PLA reportedly moved several warships and planes near the median line – an unofficial border between China and Taiwan in the Taiwan strait...."

SEE WHOLE GUARDIAN ARTICLE

UK Admiral, Sir Tony Radakin, Confesses to Mole.

Admiral Radakin with SubMatts' most illustrious mole, Commander Bond, James Bond.
(Photo courtesy Evening Standard.)
---

Submarine Matters' main mole suspected the UK's Chief of Defence Staff Admiral, Sir Tony Radakin, travelled to Australia to take part, July 25 - 27, 2022, in the Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defence (CHODs) Conference in Sydney. And so, it has come to pass. Radakin's CHODs discussions were wide and mainly confidential.

Australia’s government owned ABC News reported, July 30, 2022, that Admiral Radakin had several things to say on all important submarine matters, as follows:

“In a wide-ranging interview with the ABC…Admiral…Radakin, also flagged more visits [probably to Fleet Base West] Australia from Royal Navy nuclear-powered [Astute] submarines as work continues on the ambitious AUKUS project.”

Admiral Radakin “flagged increased cooperation and training with the Royal Navy...".

"We've always had a strong relationship between our two countries, or two militaries, and especially our two navies," he said.

Admiral Radakin also revealed that Royal Australian Navy personnel have travelled to the UK to begin training onboard the Royal Navy's nuclear-powered submarines.

"Australian submariners are coming to Europe [ie. the UK] to experience a nuclear submarine and how we go about that, our capabilities and our tactics in the North Atlantic, all as part of this learning process," he said...

MORE AT ABC NEWS 

China Debt Trapping/Bribes Solomons for Island Bases

Kolombangara Island (in the Solomons). China (the PRC) is interested in Kolombangara for a Naval and  Air Base. Kolombangara is the circular volcanic island (above left-center on map courtesy NASA). Chinese bases on Kolombangara would be ideal for bombers, medium range missile strikes and to support part of a naval blockade of Australia. 

Also China's NSA perhaps out of China's Embassy, Honiara, may have improved interception opportunites of mobiles and landline telephony within the Solomons and tapping the Coral Sea Cable which is shared with PNG-Sydney-Solomons. 

While the AUKUS deal seems to have caught China’s attention, their efforts in the South Pacific have done the same for Australia.

If this story on Four Corners is correct, China is applying the same playbook in the Solomon Islands as in Sri Lanka. First the political payoffs, then the debt trap, then the naval base.

Australia’s government owned ABC TV has screened a Four Corners program here and below dated August 1, 2022. 

The article below is based on the Four Corners episode.

ARTICLE

Angus Grigg, Stephanie March and Amy Donaldson have provided this ABC article, of August 1, 2022, with excerpts below:

"Australia urged to intervene as China tries to buy a strategic Solomon Islands port"

A Chinese state-owned company is negotiating to buy a deep-water port and World War II airstrip in Solomon Islands, as new documents detail how money from Beijing has helped keep the Pacific nation's controversial leader in power.

As a battle for influence plays out in the region, an investigation by Four Corners has found China is aggressively pursuing economic opportunities across the Solomons to boost Beijing's strategic interests.

One asset being targeted by China is a hardwood forestry plantation on the island of Kolombangara [see maps above] which features a protected harbour, deep-water port and an airstrip.

A delegation from the state-owned China Forestry Group Corporation visited the island in 2019 and, according to those present, showed little interest in the trees. 

Instead, one member of the group pointedly asked: "How long is the wharf and how deep is the water?"

Since COVID-19 border restrictions lifted last month, talks have resumed.

Silas Tausinga, a Solomon Islands MP whose electorate sits next to Kolombangara, believes China's ambition to house military assets in his country remains strong, despite months of high-level political and media attention.

"Absolutely, Australia should be worried about it," he told Four Corners.

This push is only possible because the Solomons severed diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favour of Beijing in 2019.

Since then, China has mobilised funds to support the country's combative Prime Minister, Manasseh Sogavare.

Chinese [Bribes] slush fund

Documents obtained by Four Corners show a Chinese slush fund was activated twice last year and dispersed nearly $3 million directly to members of parliament loyal to the Prime Minister.

One letter signed by Mr Sogavare said the Chinese embassy in Honiara "consented" to provide "additional support" for his government in August last year.

That was in the lead-up to a vote of no confidence, which could have toppled the Prime Minister and undermined Beijing's ambitions in the tiny Pacific nation.

Mr Sogavare described the money as a "stimulus package" to revitalise the economy, although it was only given to MPs loyal to him. Opposition members received nothing.

[The Australian Government, with aid and investments, is trying to counter the Chinese debt trap takeover, but it cannot use bribes like China does.]

….All MPs loyal to the Prime Minister received nearly $80,000 each…those MPs have no obligation to show how the money was spent.

Asked if the Chinese money allowed Mr Sogavare to retain his job, Mr Tausinga said: "Well, he's stayed in power, hasn't he?"

Beijing's desire for a military presence in the Solomons was revealed in a recently leaked letter from 2020, in which a Chinese defence contractor sought to lease land in Isabel Province to develop "naval and infrastructure projects" for the "People's Liberation Army Navy".

'Strategic threats' to Australia

Clive Moore, a Pacific expert from the University of Queensland, said in the longer term China could use its economic outposts in the Solomons for military purposes.

….The forestry plantation on Kolombangara offers both economic and strategic opportunities.

If a Chinese entity took over the plantation it would control two-thirds of [Kolombangara] island, including 14,000 hectares of hardwood forest, 24,000 hectares of protected forest, the port, a marine base, the airstrip and large areas of flat land. 

…Kolombangara has "the best natural deep-water port in the Solomons that could be used for a large vessel immediately"...."

THE WHOLE ABC REPORT IS HERE.