1,300 US Marines to be Permantly at Guam: Darwin?

Pete Comment

Of interest to Australia. 1,300 US Marines will be permantly based at Guam, much closer to Australia than previously. This is along with a 3,700 Marine force rotating through Guam.

What impact that will have on the up to 2,500 per year Marine Rotational Force [through] Darwin (MRF-D) Australia agreement is unknown (?) and will need to be worked out. This is yet another item on Biden's amd Prime Minister Morrison's very long To Do lists.

ARTICLE

Miguel Ortiz at We Are The Mighty December 4, 2020 reports 
 https://www.wearethemighty.com/mighty-trending/camp-blaz/ :

"Camp Blaz [Guam] is the first new USMC base in nearly 70 years" 

On October 1, 2020, the United States Marine Corps activated its first new base since 1952. Marine Corps Base Camp Blaz will host roughly 5,000 Marines of III Marine Expeditionary Force on the island of Guam. The Marines will relocate from their current station in Okinawa, Japan over the next five years. 1,300 Marines will be permanently stationed at Camp Blaz while the remaining 3,700 Marines will serve as a rotational force.

The new Marine Corps strategy in the Pacific calls for a smaller, more agile and lethal force. “We have to spread out,” said the Commandant of the Marine Corps Gen. David Berger. “We have to factor in Guam.” Camp Blaz will allow the United States to distribute its premiere amphibious fighting force across the Pacific. Operating from Guam, the Marine Corps will be able to respond to a wider array of aggressive actions from China...."

.50+ Calibre Assassination of Iranian Nuclear Scientist: Diagram.

The recent assassination of Iran's top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, was carried out remotely with the help of preparatory humint, satellite warning/part cuing, artificial intelligence (ie. complex software) in the Nissan shoot car, a facial recognition camera for targeting, hooked up to a machinegun (likely heavy) in the Nissan. Finally there was a bomb with about a 3 second timer to blow up the Nissan.

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was traveling with his wife in a [semi] bulletproof car in the city of Absard, east of Tehran on Friday afternoon, November 27, 2020 when he was killed. Fakhrizadeh's car and a car full of bodyguards were surrounded by a security detail of three other vehicles (telltale security outrider motorbikes?). The convoy had to go though a narrow, one-way, "kill zone" (see Diagram below). After going around a distracting roundabout, which semi-hid the Nissan.

Fakhrizadeh was shot at least three times by a medium-heavy machinegun in the Nissan that was parked approximately 150 meters up ahead. The Nissan later exploded after maybe 3 seconds, perhaps further damaging Fakhrizadeh's car. 

Conflicting sources (with much unlikely information) are here and here. 

COMMENT

Months of humint and sigint planning allows for a complex remote operation.

The satellite could have been used to cue the radio dish/antenna on the Nissan to provide 20 seconds notice that the right/expected convoy (with telltale outriders) was approaching.

(See Diagram for killzone channeling) A high spec camera in the Nissan would have been configured  to capture the target’s face through glass OR the operation planners already knew which car Fakhrizadeh was traveling in.

Fakhrizadeh's car may have only been resistant to standard 7.62mm ammunition. If the machine gun was of a heavy calibre - say .50 calibre (12.7mm) (eg. an M2 or equally common Russian Kord) with special armour piercing bullets, they could easily get to Fakhrizadeh.

Even if the heavy machine-gun failed to fire - an automatic timer in the Nissan was set to explode blowing up Fakhrizadeh's still approaching car. The explosion also had the advantage of destroying any remaining assassinating country evidence. 

Before the operation there would be little difficulty transporting the assassination equipment in pieces across any one of Iran's many loose land and sea borders (see Map below). Iran is surrounded by such loose and/or contested borders as Iraq, Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Caspian Sea, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf. This presents endless opportunities for any determined state based assassination operation.

WIDE AREA MAP (Courtesy BBC)

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DIAGRAM - Points 1, 2 and 5 appear correct although the equipment was more likely hidden in a Nissan car, not an open air "pick-up". But 3 and 4 are clearly wrong: Fakhrizadeh (the VIP) would not get out of the car (that was protecting him) "to investigate the noise". Doctrine: A fired upon VIP armoured car speeds away from the threat. (Diagram coutesy USA Today Sun, with some old information as at November 30, 2020).
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UK-French Nuclear Weapon Treaties 2010: 2 SSBNs Collided

Further on my message that the French nuclear deterrent has never been entirely homegrown, is the 2010 UK-French Lancaster House Treaties. These have synonymous/working and overlapping instruments that include the 2010 Downing Street Declaration and 2010 Teutates Treaty.

The nuclear aspects of the treaties were aimed at improving nuclear wepaon management coordination between the UK and France (the only two Western European powers who actually own their nuclear warheads) and to reduce the high costs of nuclear weapon management. 

Most of their operational nuclear warheads are mounted on their 4 SSBNs each, ie. the 4 UK Vanguard-class and 4 French Triomphant-class.

"Lancaster", "Downing" and "Teutates" appear to be used interchangeably due to legal complexities and also to add bureacratic-security-cover over what are sensitive nuclear weapon matters.

A Major Nuclear Accident

Somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, on February 3-4, 2009, HMS Vanguard SSBN and the French Navy’s Le Triomphant SSBN collided - luckily in slow customary SSBN motion. Both sustained serious damage and limped home under their own power (?).

After this shock and for many other diplomatic and cost reasons the UK and France believed it high time to conclude what became the Lancaster House defence and security cooperation treaties, covering conventional and nuclear weapon matters.

Between the lines the UK and France also concluded SSBN patrol procedures (dividing the Atlantic up into national zones?) to avoid future collisions.

The Treaties

The Lancaster House Treaties of 2010 [actual text] are two treaties between UK and France for defence and security cooperation.^[1][2] They were signed at 10 Downing Street (UK Prime Minister's main office, London, UK) on November 2, 2010 by UK Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy.^[3]

Under the 2010 Lancaster Treaties umbrella is the Downing Street Declaration, which covers conventional weapon matters and the nuclear weapon matters that I’m interested in, eg:

• Collaboration on the technology associated with nuclear stockpile stewardship in support of both countries' independent nuclear deterrent capabilities. This included building a new joint facility at Valduc nuclear weapons center in France that modelled performance of nuclear warheads and materials to ensure long-term viability, security and safety. This was supported by a new joint Technology Development Centre at Aldermaston Nuclear Weapons Establishment in the UK.

and

• The two countries began joint development of some of the equipment and technologies for the next generation of nuclear submarines.

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Under the 2010 Lancaster Treaties umbrella in the joint Nuclear Weapons management realm is the Teutates Treaty [actual text] between the UK and France on Joint Radiographic / Hydrodynamics Facilities (Valduc and Aldermaston).

“Teutates” was the Celtic God of War (tribal defensive) in ancient Britain and Gaul (no less). So it is an appropriate name for a nuclear weapons treaty.

After the post 2009 rush to conclude these treaties in 2010 all may have gone swimmingly until the UK Government’s big Brexit blunder impinged on UK-French nuclear weapon management. This will be explored next week.

COVID: Entire crew HMS Vengeance SSBN replaced: RN officer tested positive.

Not only HMS Vigilant (SSBN) has had severe COVID problems this year (see my November 2, 2020 report) but now her sister sub HMS Vengeance (SSBN) has had a major disruption due to COVID. 

See the UK Daily Mail's report of  December 4, 2020:

'Entire crew' of nuke-carrying Trident submarine based in Scotland 'is replaced after Royal Navy officer tested positive for Covid-19'

"A Trident submarine's entire crew was replaced after an officer tested positive for Covid-19, it was claimed last night.

Almost 170 Royal Navy sailors serving aboard HMS Vengeance were taken off days before a deployment, according to The Sun.

The crew had been living in strict isolation and had food delivered to their rooms along with regular testing.

...But Navy top brass reportedly had to overhaul the entire crew when an officer caught the virus.

Sources have pointed the finger at inspectors who came aboard HMS Vengeance while docked at the Faslane naval base in Scotland last week.

[needless to say] An insider told the newspaper: 'It would be a disaster if there was a Covid outbreak on a sub if it was on patrol.'"

SEE WHOLE DAILYMAIL ARTICLE

Nuclear and Missile Proliferation: SE Asian-Australia Region

Sparked by GhalibKabir’s interesting comment of December 2, 2020 is my comment below.

Yes Russia is very unlikely to accept Indian export of BrahMos to Australia.

In any case Australia politically would reject joint Russian-Indian missile BrahMos because it is part Russian. Australia would be relying on the US to work out countermeasures Against BrahMos.

On an electronic intel level BrahMos might be packaged with hidden extra Russian spyware software. That may also render it inoperable in attempted use against target ships carrying Russian friend-or-foe transmitters.

Past Russian nuclear and missile assistance to India's Nirbhay, nuclear capable cruise missile, would also turn off Australia.

There may be more interest likely in Israel's small "Baby Boomer" SSB platform supersonic endrun Popeye Turbo n-SLCM.

More overtly (and in joint Australia-US character) is:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/01/australia/hypersonic-missile-australia-us-intl-hnk/index.html of Dec 1, 2020 "Australia partners with US to develop hypersonic missiles"

"(CNN) Australia will jointly develop hypersonic cruise missiles with the United States in a bid to counter China and Russia which are developing similar weapons, Defence Minister Linda Reynolds said on Tuesday.

"We will continue to invest in advanced capabilities to give the Australian Defence Force more options to deter aggression against Australia's interests," Reynolds said in a statement.

She did not reveal the cost of developing the missiles or when they would be operational.

Australia had set aside up to 9.3 billion Australian dollars ($6.8 billion) this year for high-speed, long-range missile defense systems, including hypersonic research..."

Likely synonymous with the US developing a larger longer range SM-6 - with SM-6 already ordered by Australia. Australia may be part funding the enlarged version. Also see  “This is likely to be the SM6 missile” 

An authenticly hypersonic US missile, that might be passed on to Australia by the 2030s, is the under development - see "Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS)" missile.  

I haven't read much about Vietnam building an n-deterrent (with Russian help?) but it would make sense against China. However Vietnam might reason that it would need a too large, hence unaffordable deterrent, to give China pause. I see Vietnam has curtailed its nuclear energy plans.

Philippines is still under US Treaty/control [see Diplomat paysite] stopping Phils doing its own n-deterrent. 

I class Phils with Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Malaysia and Myanmar as being (understandably) too frozen in fear in Chinese headlights to contemplate a n-deterrent. It cannot be easy for the mainland Southeast Asian countries, knowing they are but a short Chinese tank drive away.

Indonesia already has the money to go nuclear, but that would form the major headache for Australia - enough for Australia to also go down the n road.

Australia Hosted French Nuclear Sub: NEW INFORMATION

Australia hosted France's Rubis class nuclear attack submarine FNS Emeraude and the submarine tender/support vessel FNS Seine at Australia's Fleet Base West, near Fremantle and Perth, Western Australia. 

The Australian and French navies are united in their Indo-Pacific security relationship, which is heightened by Australia's decision to buy/build 12 French designed large conventional Attack class submarines.

Australia's Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter (APDR) reports, 9 Nov, 2020 [hyperlinks added by Pete]:

"The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) will host Marine Nationale units FNS Emeraude and FNS Seine at Fleet Base West from 9 November 2020. Prior to the maintenance and logistics visit, Australian Defence Force elements, including HMAS Anzac, HMAS Sheean and a P-8A Poseidon aircraft exercised with the French Navy units off the coast of Fremantle..."

SEE WHOLE APDR ARTICLE

NEW INFORMATION

The USN via "Defence Blog" December 2, 2020 subsequently reported FNS Emeraude and FNS Seine

visited US Naval Base Guam.

Pete Comment

Unreported visits of both vessels, before and/or after, to French Indo-Pacific territories, are possible

 eg. forward naval bases at:

-  Nouméa, New Caledonia, South Pacific

-  Papeete, Tahiti, French Polynesia, South Pacific, and

-  Port Réunion naval base, Réunion Island, Indian Ocean.