Beware of hackers, human spies and employees!

(Graphics on Slide 12 courtesy Cyber Agency) A combination or overlap of motivations and actions may lead to a leak of information. For example a Disgruntled Employee may appoach a Competitor, Foreign Corporation or Foreign Government. The Disgruntled Employee may stay in place while he thumb-drives information out to (say):

-  a Competitor or Foreign Corporation who after months or years hires him as an employee or overpaid contractor

-  a Foreign Government that he/she defects/immigrates to - then becoming a "foreign contractor", liberal activist for an authoritarian government or bona fide immigrant.

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 Clearly a noble tradition. Such inadvertent "sharing" of information may drive the price of weapons down, may create arms races, or may make stealth or improved nuclear weapons more obtainable for the have-nots. One case is China acquiring US F-22 and F-35 secrets as well as Su-33 secrets from Russia. Chinese espionage has led. Another case is Klaus Fuchs. (Map on Slide 10 courtesy Cyber Agency)

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COMMENT

Attempted hacking of Western economic secrets by the Russian and Chinese Government and by Russian and Chinese arms companies is to be expected. Plain old hackers with no agenda other than to get into online secrets for the challenge “fun” of it are also a threat. 

The “30 to 40 (hacking) attempts per night,” reported by TKMS (article below) may be a standard year round level aimed at submarine secrets, many other technical secrets and politically sensitive material held by a company. It would be the same for targeted companies and governments in France and Japan.

On a traditional human intelligence (HUMINT) level Russian and Chinese diplomats, “agents” and students would also attempt to gather secrets from Western arms companies, research institutes and Western governments. Dr A Q Khan (now 79) is a classic agent-student case.

Conference attendees and couriers should watch out for pre-blackmail or chain-cutter wielding “honey traps” and “honeypots”. Bad news!

MAIN ARTICLE

A large number of publications on November 9, 2015 have drawn from an articlein The Australian November 9, 2015. For example an article in Europe online said in quotation marks “…” http://en.europeonline-magazine.eu/china-russia-reportedly-try-to-hack-into-australian-submarine-plans_421843.html and I have added comments in square brackets […]:

“Sydney (dpa) - Spies from both China and Russia have tried to hack into German, French and Japanese plans to build Australia‘s future submarines…”

[TKMS, DCNS and the Japanese government - hold highly sensitive Competitive Evaluation Process (CEP) questions and their highly classified answers in response to these questions.]

“The three bidders have been forced to rely on hand delivery of sensitive information and the Australian government has examined cyber-security with each of the foreign bidders.”

"We have about 30 to 40 (hacking) attempts per night, that‘s what our IT people say," according to Manfred Klein, [Senior Vice-President, Product Management, TKMS, Kiel, told The Australian]

"John White, chairman of the German group in Australia, told [TheAustralian] the attempted espionage was to be expected."

"They‘re trying to get into everyone‘s communications," White said. "Espionage and breaches of security ... you just assume it is happening. Everybody is in that game. It‘s a space that people play in. We don‘t suspect anyone, we suspect everybody."

[Final answers/responses from the three contenders are due November 30, 2015. The Australian Federal (Turnbull) Government is expected to pick a winner or eliminate one contender some time in 2016.]

Pete

An Early History of Indonesian Submarine Operations

Author of Underseawarfare article Admiral Agung Pramono, Commander, Eastern Fleet, Indonesian Navy (facing with Admiral's baton). (Photo courtesy DC examiner) 

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Indonesian Submarine KRI Nanggala (402) (right click mouse to translate) and USS Oklahoma City (SSN-723) (Photo courtesy US Navy).
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Here are two views of Indonesian submarine operations:

SECTION ONE -  In US Navy’s Underseawarfare, Spring 2013, Issue No. 50  http://www.public.navy.mil/subfor/underseawarfaremagazine/Issues/Archives/issue_50/IndonesianSubSquadron.html [dead link as at April 2019!] is an interesting articleby Rear Admiral Agung Pramono, S.H., M. Hum, Indonesian Navy. In its struggle for independence Indonesia used its Russian provided Whiskey-class submarines for special forces insertion during the low level conflict in Dutch New Guinea (now Irian Jaya) in 1962. Here are some excerpts:

"The History of the Indonesian Submarine Squadron

....The Indonesian Navy has long experience in operating submarines. For a significant period in the 1960s and 1970s, Indonesia operated the most powerful submarine force in the Asia-Pacific region, excepting the Cold War superpowers: 12 Whiskey-class submarines, two torpedo retrievers, and one submarine tender, all purchased from the Soviet Union. By comparison, no other Southeast Asian nation possessed a submarine force of any size, and in 1967 the Royal Australian Navy had only six submarines, of the Oberon class. [The Whiskey class like the Oberon class drew heavily on the design features of the German World War Two Type XXI submarine].

KRI Tjakra (the first "Cakra") (S-01 or 401)(Photo courtesy Weapons Technology)

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The Indonesian Navy received its first submarine, KRI Tjakra (401) from the USSR on 12 September 1959. This first submarine was commanded by Commander O.P. Koesno... 

Three of the Indonesian Whiskey submarines used in Operation Trikora, the liberation of West Irian from the Dutch, 1962 (Photo courtesy Weapons Technology)

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During the 1960s, in the heyday of the Whiskey class, these superb underwater units were used to regain West Papua from Dutch colonial control. There were three submarine deployments during the military operation—called JAYA WIJAYA 1 [see in SECTION TWO BELOW] - against the Dutch forces in the West Papua. 

KRI Nagabanda (403), KRI Trisula (402), and KRI Tjandrasa (408) successfully launched an attack on the Dutch forces in the West Papua area; in operation TJAKRA II, Tjandrasa managed to infiltrate the enemy’s area to land a group of Indonesian Special Forces on the island. For the success of that operation, the Indonesian Government awarded Tjandrasa and her crew with the prestigious “Bintang Sakti” medal. To the present day, Tjandrasa is the only naval vessel to have been awarded the medal. In April 1963, in operation VISHNU MUKTI, KRl Nagarangsang (404), KRl Tjundamani (411), and KRI Alugoro (406) again conducted a ‘show of force’ in West Papua waters.

...The declining relationship between the Republic of Indonesia and the Soviet Union in 1965 - resulting from Indonesian government action against the rebellion of the Indonesian Communist Party - led to a spare parts crisis in the Navy, which affected the submarines. To maintain an operational force, the Indonesian Navy decommissioned several submarines and used their parts to repair the remaining vessels. Since then, the number of the Navy’s submarines declined steadily. The last remaining Whiskey-class submarine, KRI Pasopati (410), was decommissioned on 25 January 1990 and now serves as a submarine museum in downtown Surabaya.

In 1978, prior to the decommissioning of Pasopati, Indonesia procured two Type 209/1300 submarines from West Germany—KRI Cakra (401) and KRI Nanggala (402)—to maintain the security of Indonesian territorial waters. These two German submarines have been overhauled several times in Germany, South Korea, and Indonesia.

...Having learned from its previous experiences, the Indonesian Navy has planned to gradually increase the size of its submarine force in the years to come. To begin, it has ordered three [Improved Chang Bogo] Type 209/1500 submarines from South Korea. The Navy expects to restore the glory of its naval forces, including its submarine squadron."  See WHOLE ARTICLE

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SECTION TWO -  "50 YEARS OF SHARK KENCANA"

Separately - within "Weapons Technology" blog see "SHIP STORIES OF THE TNI AL: 50 YEARS OF KENCANA SHARK" of July 14, 2011 at http://weaponstechnology.blogspot.com.au/2011/07/kisah-kisah-kapal-selam-tni-al-50-tahun.html (right click mouse to translate) subsection:

-  (scroll halfway down) 1963 - 64 details of a reconnaissance down the Western Australian
     coast close to Perth (too cold) 

-  Confrontation with Malaysia

-  (scrol three quaters) 1975 "Make angry commander RAN frigate" :-) 

Pete

Chinese and US Submarines Likely Kept Watch on USS Lassen

China's built-up, militarised island of Subi Reef is just above the center of the map above. With the US  informing China beforehand, a US destroyer, USS Lassen, approached close to Subi on October 26, 2015. The South China Sea (see inset map above) stretches from Taiwan in the north to Borneo island and Singapore in the south, Vietnam in the west to the Philippines in the east. That sea's main trouble spots are the Paracel Islands and Spratly Islands (which includes Subi Reef).

China is flexing its naval power by claiming that large areas of the South China Sea belong to it. China believes its right is strengthened by a rather weak argument that because the sea in question is most commonly called "South China Sea" it belongs to China under international law. 

The US has been the most active country to reject such a Chinese claim. The US is demonstrating the right of ships and aircraft to pass close to islands claimed by China by conducting freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs). 

Submarines cannot show the flag unless running on the surface (at a major disadvantage) or sitting in port. But subs can precede, follow up and protect surface ships that are showing the flag.

When USS Lassen (DDG-82) embarked on her freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) on  October 26, 2015 she “was accompanied by two [US] maritime surveillance aircraft, a P-8A Poseidon and a P-3 Orion. Pentagon officials leaked information about the FONOP before it took place as well as after it was completed, but refrained from speaking on the record about the mission.”

Lassen's FONOP took her within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef. It is likely that Lassen was preceded by a US SSN from Submarine Squadron (SUBRON) 15, Guam, and possibly another SSN from that SUBRON followed her. These submarines, keeping watch with their extensive passive sonar and intercept systems, protected Lassen from surprises. Surprises would be mainly in the shape of Chinese surface warships and/or submarine activities. 

China would anticipate the presence of US submarines for such politically and strategically important operation.

China for its part may have posted some Yuan class submarines along the previously advised route that Lassen took. I suspect Yuans were used because they would be China's best equipped subs to move into the Subi Reef area and wait for the Lassen on October 26. As the Yuan's have air independent propulsion (AIP) and other advances they would be better placed to discretely collect technical intelligence from the Lassen, other US ships and SSNs as these US ships/subs passed by..

DETAILS ON THE US SUBS AND USS LASSEN

Submarine Matters, on June 17, 2015, reported on Submarine Squadron (SUBRON) 15 which consists of 4 SSNs serviced by large shore installations and submarine tender USS Frank Cable all based in Guam.  SUBRON 15 supports the activities of the Seventh Fleet headquartered in Yokosuka, Japan. At Yokosuka is Destroyer Squadron 15 which includes USS Lassen (DDG-82).

So although the Seventh Fleet is based in several far-flung places its powerful forces come together for key activities like the FONOP near Subi Reef.

It is unlikely that Australia or Japan will run their own FONOPs for the foreseeable future.

SUBI REEF

As indicated by Submarine Matters on September 24, 2015 China is building up several South China Sea islands into military bases very quickly. The islands can host air and naval bases and also long range intelligence sensors including radars. The islands it is building up most rapidly appear to be Mischief Reef, Fiery Cross Reef and Subi Reef. 

Subi Reef, seen in three photos below, is being rapidly built up into an air and naval base - initially using sand dredging for landfill. The photos below, dated April 2015, June 2015 show rapid progress by August 2015 Subi. The reef-island has almost a completely enclosed harbour. Port facilities and a 3,000 meter airstrip will soon be built.

(Satellite image above courtesy Victor Robert Lee and Digital Globe via The Diplomat) 

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Subi Reef (above) 2 months later in August 8, 2015 (Satellite image courtesy CSIS/AMTI via Reuters)

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China is effectively claiming that improving or building on islands is really a right of defence which (in China's mind) spreads out to a much broader territorial right around the islands. The air and naval bases that will eventually be built will also provide practical weapons to defend China's purported rights and arguments.

China's activities in the South China and East China Seas contribute to international tension. Tension that is drawing such countries as Japan, Australia, Vietnam, the Philippines, India and, of course, the US, closer together.

Pete

Russian Airliner Crash in Sinai - Sunni Terrorists?

Russian Metrojet Flight 9268 crashed (cause unknown) while enroute from the Egyptian coastal resort airport at Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg, Russia, on October 31, 2015. 224 people were killed. 

The jet apparently exploded higher than 30,000 feet - too high to be shot down by a small man portable missile MANPAD of the type that may be available to terrorists. A larger, higher altitude, truck mounted missile is unlikely as the heat plume, as such a missile rose up, could be detected by the many satellites focussing on the region. Also experts assume terrorist organisations don't have the ability to use larger ungainly, difficult to operate missiles.  So - a bomb on board? 

(Map diagrams above courtesy Washington Post via Maps On The Web)

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Sharm El Sheikh Airport, Egypt (looking rudimentary security-wise) where the Russian airliner took off.

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So how would a Russian security official in the employ of President for Life, Putin report on the crash of Russian airliner Flight 9268?

Even though ISIS (aka IS or ISIL etc) has claimed that it destroyed the plane it is important not to link the crash with Russia's new military venture against ISIS in Syria. Russia officially (or through its news organ RT) cannot come to a conclusion that terrorist action brought down the jet.

Egyptian soldiers collecting personal belongings, into body bags, at the crash site (Photo courtesy Associated Press via Huffington Post) 

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The Russian official may be concerned about security standards at secondary Egyptian airports like Sharm el-Sheikh where the Russian airliner took off. The Russian may be concerned that baggage handlers, security gate and customs officers etc may be lax, or the possibility that they are security threats. Only a small minority might be sufficient to facilitate a bomb. That small minority may become significant given Egypt has almost 80 million Sunni Muslims. As ISIS is also very Islamic and overtly Sunni a significant minority of Egyptians might be susceptible to ISIS persuasion.

Unlike countries of the Middle East that have oil, Egypt is not wealthy enough to have all the high tech security equipment and experienced security advisers. Egypt's capital Cairo Airport would have much high tech equipment but less so secondary airports like Sharm el-Sheikh.

Western governments are increasingly coming to the conclusion that a bomb destroyed the plane: "The Americans seem to have reached this conclusion based on intercepted communications messages from the Sinai region."

An Airbus A321 in Metrojet colours - identical to the Russian jet that crashed.

If it was terrorism and a bomb the Russian security official might consider questioning the risks of continued Russian participation in Iraq and Syria, but he will probably remain mute.

Remains of an engine from the crashed Russian airliner (Photo courtesy Maxim Grigoryev/TASS)
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Passenger waiting at Sharm el-Sheikh airport. Perhaps 20,000 British stranded in Egypt will be evacuated by the UK Royal Air Force from November 6, 2015 (Photo and evacuation tip courtesy BBC via Huffington Post)
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Pete

Increase in Stress Management for Submariners

Australian submariner and recruiter, Olivia Brown, speaks to Mamamia magazine (Photo courtesy Mamamia) about submarine life (see below). Her sailor's cap indicates she is based at HMAS Stirling - not a ship or sub but Australia's Fleet Base West at which all six of Australia's Collins subs are based.

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Stress management is a growing area throughout the defence forces of Western countries. The unusual stresses and responsibilities of submarine service even in "peacetime" makes stress management particularly important.

A sound stress management program has many benefits including:

-  improving attractiveness of recruitment and subsequent retention of submariners

-  improving occupational health and safety

-  improving morale and security.

On the stresses of submariner life Submarine Matters reported on Royal Navy finding it Difficult to Recruit Submariners, October 1, 2015.

40 seconds into this July 2014 Youtube Chief of the Australian Navy, Vice Admiral Tim Barrett, indicates he wants to make the Navy a better place in which to work.
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On the RAN and mental health - this October 29, 2015 promise in the Navy Daily is of interest "Chief of Navy, Vice Admiral Tim Barrett, was among many Defence personnel to mark Defence Mental Health Month by leading by example and making a public personal mental health promise." 

Interesting 2014 reddit Navy forum comments on Depression and Submarines (seems mainly US Navy). 

A Mamamia April 27, 2015 interview with Olivia Brown, RAN submariner and recruiter. Most relevant answer "Being at sea can be very full on – long periods away, disrupted sleep cycles, no sunlight for long periods… At the same time [it is] a very fulfilling work environment – sometimes you want your work to be challenging and ever-changing. Ashore, our job I guess is more stable, however it can be mundane and involve a more typical work environment like a normal desk job. Personally I don’t mind being at sea, not sure my partner would agree with that though. Obviously due to the environment we work in, we do get paid considerably more when we are on sea rotation so there is that factor as well."

MAIN ARTICLE

On US Navy stress management see this article by Michael Melia of Associated Press, via the US military's Stars and Stripes, November 1, 2015 http://www.stripes.com/news/us/navy-submarine-force-increases-stress-management-services-1.376454:

"Navy submarine force increases stress-management services"

GROTON, Conn. — The U.S. Navy's elite submarine force is stepping up stress-management services for its sailors, responding in part to elevated numbers of unexpected dropouts among younger service members.

A psychiatrist at Naval Submarine Base New London, Navy Capt. Steven Wechsler, has been meeting with sailors for the last three months at his office on the waterfront, going aboard submarines to introduce himself, and giving talks on issues surrounding deployments. The idea is to engage sailors who might be reluctant to seek out mental health professionals at a military clinic and keep them focused.

It's a model that the Navy intends to replicate at its six other homeports for submarines in Virginia, Georgia, Hawaii, Washington state, southern California and Guam.

Wechsler himself served in the submarine force for years, and he said that experience helps put sailors at ease. He understands the challenges that come with spending weeks at a time inside a cramped metal tube on stealthy missions, with limited communication home to loved ones.

"When the hatch is shut, that hatch is shut. They are contained within that environment," Wechsler said. "Somebody who is maybe a little more introverted is going to run into difficulty because they're in close proximity to other people all the time."

Options for exercise - one of the more popular stress relievers - are limited not only by space, but also concerns about banging around and making noise that could give up a sub's location. So Wechsler works with sailors on other strategies to improve resilience.

The Navy also has been working to overcome a stigma attached to mental health treatment, and officials say the submarine force's approach - a doctor "embedded" on the waterfront - is among several taken by various military communities.

A spokesman for the submarine force, Cmdr. Tommy Crosby, said the new services stem partly from the leadership's recognition of needs among a younger generation of sailors, as highlighted by a higher rate of dropouts - or "unplanned losses" - for mental health reasons. Other submarine force officials have described tendencies among millennials to include more reliance on feedback and less adaptability to setbacks compared to an older generation.

The submarine force's top enlisted sailor, Force Master Chief Wesley Koshoffer, said mental health issues have arisen for some younger sailors when they first encounter significant stress from a failed relationship, failure of a test, or discipline. He said the Navy has been investing more in teaching coping skills, building mentorship programs and other efforts to give sailors confidence to succeed.

The Navy ran a pilot mental health program a few years ago in Norfolk, Virginia, to see if it could cut down on the dropouts. After a year when submarine crews out of Norfolk had 22 "unplanned losses" for mental health reasons, the program cut that number in the following year in 14, according to Capt. Matthew Hickey, the submarine force's chief medical officer.

Wechsler said he has seen the vast majority of his patients return to duty.

"I can be there immediately when they're having a bad day as opposed to letting that bad day fester and develop a symptomatic response," he said."

Pete

Japan's Submarine Sales Advantage, 2 + 2 Talks With Australia

Japan’s Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida (left), Defence Minister Gen Nakatani (center), and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (right) (Photo courtesy gettyimages on Asahi Shimbun) 

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Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull with the women in his Ministry. Defence Minister Marise Payne (front row, left), Foreign Minister Julie Bishop (front row, between Turnbull and Kelly O'Dwyer's baby :) (Photo courtesy Reuters)

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Japan and Australia sharing the same region gives Japan an important advantage over the French and German competition for the Future Australian submarine sale. The annual "2 + 2" talks between Japan and Australia cement the ongoing defence relationship (see Article below).

The next 2 + 2 talks may next occur in late November 2015. This meeting time may be favourable for Japan, when Japan, Germany and France put in their final bids by the November 30, 2015 deadline.

Japan and Australian have had a friendly high level regional relationship (political, economic, security etc) since 1951.

France has referred to Australia's alliance relations with France in World War One as part of its sales campaign. "It is more than 100 years since the Anzac legend was forged in places like Fromelles and the Somme in France, and today Australia and France remain the strongest of allies,” it says.“Our shared military heritage provides a solid foundation for a new endeavour to further strengthen this time honoured relationship.”

But World War One was a century ago. Australia has had much more recent frosty relations with France over: French nuclear weapons testing in the Pacific from 1966 to 1996. A related incident was France's DGSE spy organisation in 1985 blowing up a peace ship, Rainbow Warrior in the main harbour of Australia's closest ally, New Zealand. Australia's relations with France have been correct rather than warm - perhaps part of the age old Anglos versus France thing. Maybe a high risk arms deal will change all that.

Australia, of course, had a combative relationship with Germany in World Wars One and Two, but things have improved.

JAPAN TIMES ARTICLE

"S" drew my attention to the following issue. 

The Japan Times, October 26, 2015, reports http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/10/26/national/politics-diplomacy/japan-australia-planning-two-plus-two-ministers-meeting-late-november/#.VjWVP7crIgt [Pete has added two hyper links]

“Japan, Australia planning ‘two-plus-two’ defence talks for late November

[From Kyodo, Japan] -

Japan and Australia are making final arrangements to hold a meeting of their defence and foreign ministers, possibly in late November, with technological cooperation on submarines to be high on the agenda, according to a Japanese source.

At the “two-plus-two” meeting to be held in Australia, Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and Defence Minister Gen Nakatani [with Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and Defence Minister Marise Payne] will also seek to build trust with the new Australian government led by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull that took power in September.

The previous prime minister, Tony Abbott, was known for having close ties with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

These will be the sixth talks of their kind. The last meeting was held in June 2014 in Tokyo.

Australia will be represented by Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and Defence Minister Marise Payne.

The talks could be pushed back to December if circumstances do not allow, the government source said Sunday.

Japan is fiercely competing with France and Germany to be selected by Australia as a partner to develop submarines for its navy, with each country urged to submit proposals required for the competitive evaluation process by the end of November.

Australian officials have called it the “largest defence procurement program in its history.”

Japan is crafting a proposal based on the Maritime Self-Defence Force’s Soryu-class diesel-electric submarines, which are considered highly advanced.

The Japanese and Australian ministers are also likely to discuss ways to promote security cooperation and how to deal with China’s growing maritime assertiveness.

Turnbull, who won a sudden party leadership challenge, is labeled by Chinese media as pro-China.

Final arrangements are meanwhile being made for Turnbull to visit Japan in December.

BACKGROUND

From Official Brief http://dfat.gov.au/geo/japan/Pages/japan-country-brief.aspx

Political and security relationship

Australia and Japan have a strong and broad-ranging security partnership. Australia and Japan have taken practical steps to address regional and global strategic challenges of mutual concern. The United States is both Australia's and Japan's most important strategic ally, and the three countries progress cooperation on strategic issues through the Trilateral Strategic Dialogue mechanism. A trilateral leaders’ meeting was held in the margins of the Brisbane G20 Summit in November 2014. Australia and Japan consult regularly on regional security issues, such as North Korea's nuclear activities. The growing Australia-Japan defence relationship includes regular bilateral and trilateral exercises with the United States.

The 2007 Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation (JDSC) provides a foundation for wide-ranging cooperation on security issues between Australia and Japan, including in law enforcement; border security; counter-terrorism; disarmament and counter-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; maritime and aviation security; peace operations and humanitarian relief operations (the two countries have worked closely together in Iraq, East Timor, Pakistan and elsewhere).

The JDSC also established the regular '2+2' talks between foreign and defence ministers. At the fifth 2+2 talks in Tokyo on 11 June 2014, Ministers agreed on recommendations to enhance security and defence cooperation, including the conclusion of negotiations on a defence technology and equipment agreement. Prime Minister Abbott and Prime Minister Abe endorsed these recommendations during Prime Minister Abe’s July 2014 visit to Australia. Previous outcomes of the 2+2 process include an Acquisition and Cross Servicing Agreementon defence logistics cooperation, which entered into force on 31 January 2013, and an Information Security Agreement on the sharing of classified information, which entered into force in March 2013.

Australian Prime Minister Abbott and Japanese Prime Minister Abe held summit meetings in Tokyo on 7 April 2014 and in Canberra on 8 July 2014. The two leaders decided to elevate the security and defence relationship to a ‘Special Strategic Partnership’. The two leaders also decided to establish a bilateral cyber-policy dialogue to address common cyber threats and discuss ways to strengthen regional and international cooperation…more."

Pete