Pakistan doesn't need India's nuclear submarine capability

What INS Arihant may look like, with its reactor reportedly going critical in August 2013, four years after Arihant was launched (in 2009).

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India is very slowly building a nuclear (propelled) submarine capability as one aspect of its great power aspirations and as a counter to China's more developed nuclear submarine program. Many in Pakistan who follow naval matters believe Pakistan should also build nuclear submarines. However the cost of such an endeavour and low strategic utility of such submarines for Pakistan are two arguments against building nuclear submarines.

Even nuclear submarines in the Arabian Sea around Pakistan's landmass are highly vulnerable to air power, MRBMs and conventional submarines. Hence Pakistan's geography provides little advantage for nuclear submarines. Pakistan's AIP capability for two of its Agosta subs is highly efficient for anti-shipping, anti-submarine and missile land attack missions against India and other neighbouring states.

Meanwhile the reactor of India's locally built nuclear propelled submarine INS Arihant has reportedly gone critical - meaning it started working - today.

See http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/arihant-reactor-goes-critical-submarine-to-start-sea-trials/1/298902.html . It will be several years until Arihant goes into service ie. becomes operational.




A news item on Arihant's criticality.




India's other nuclear submarine, INS Chakra ("II") - built by the Russians.

Here are some details on Arihant including the all important weapons fit http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2009/08/arihant-indias-first-homebuilt-nuclear.html .
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Pete

Is a India - Pakistanwater war imminent?

A sketchy Nimoo-Bazgo Layout Plan

An interesting post on Australia Online Opinion, April 17, 2012 paints India in a rather bad light. Haven't made up my mind whether this is really justified.

A prominant Pakistani wrote in Lahore's The Nation "Indian hostilities and conspiracies against the country will never end until she is taught a lesson."

"...At issue are Pakistan's concerns over India's ongoing construction of two hydroelectric dams on the upper reaches of the Indus River. Islamabad is concerned that the 45 megawatt, 190-foot tall Nimoo-Bazgo concrete dam 44 megawatt Chutak hydroelectric power project will reduce the Indus River's flow towards Pakistan, as they are capable of storing up to 4.23 billion cubic feet of water, violating the terms of the bilateral 1960 Indus Water Treaty. ...The Indus is Pakistan's primary freshwater source, on which 90 percent of its agriculture depends. According to a number of Pakistani agriculture and water experts, the nation is heading towards a massive water shortage in the next couple of years due to insufficient water management practices and storage capacity, which will be exacerbated by the twin Indian hydroelectric projects, as they will further diminish the Indus' flow."

Comment
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In an age of 1,000+ megawatt power stations the 45-150? megawatts to be generated by these proposed dams seems miniscule. Perhaps the more valuable resource is additional water for Indian agriculture or cities?
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Is this a storm in a teacup or an  issue causing serious friction between Pakistan and India?
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Pete

India vs Pakistan cyberwarfare?



The Cold War between India and Pakistan sometimes takes the form of cyber warfare - or at least hackers sending malware. The Register, August 7, 2013 reports http://www.theregister.co.uk/2013/08/07/india_cyberespionage/ :

"Security researchers have uncovered what appears to be a malware-based attack targeting Indian military or government entities and designed to steal information.

The malware linked to the attack "contains specific artifacts that [link it] to a commercial Pakistani entity," according to security intelligence firm ThreatConnect..."

 See whole article.

But its not that simple. As in many malware issues its unclear who or what country is doing what.

Pete

Has Pakistan deployed any Shaheen-2's?

Shaheen-2 on parade again but is it deployed on trucks or in silos?.

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The Shaheen-2 (Urdu for 'hawk') has been on parade often enough, but is it actually deployed by Pakistan.

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MissileThreat describes the Shaheen-2: 

"The [Shaheen-2] Hatf-6 was first displayed in March 2000;...first flight test occurred in March 2004... two final tests in April 2008. Limited production of 5 to 10 missiles may have begun in 2005 with production numbers reaching 25 to 30 by 2008 [according to what evidence?]. The second flight test in 2008 was performed by an army crew from the Strategic Force Command, so the missile is presumably in service.

"...reported range of 2,500 km...accuracy of 350 m CEP....payload is a single warhead weighing 700 kg, though reports suggest that payloads up to 1,230 kg have been developed. The heavier payloads probably have a decreased range. The [Shaheen-2] warhead can be equipped for a nuclear yield between 15 and 35 kT [who says? Does that suggest Pakistan has not progressed in development to boosted fission - just pure fission plutonium implosion?]."

While its obvious that Shaheen-2's range is primarily intended for launch from Pakistan to hit most of India's major cities - in Saudi hands its main target would be a threatening Iran and perhaps a resurgent Iraq.

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Pete

Pakistan's Nuclear Missiles - at late 2012

 

Blue dotted line on map indicates the (presumably normal payload) range of Pakistan's Shaheen II MRBM. Very much orientated to India but also in range of Israel.

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 Video of one of Pakistan's test flights of Hatf-VII "Babur" cruise missile having a range of 700 kms.

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Given Pakistan's development of nuclear weapons the following might overemphasise Pakistan's reliance on foreign support for its missile programs. The US Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) organisation has published this analysis* of Pakistan's nuclear missiles last updated February 2013. The following is the most recent-final portion of the analysis http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/pakistan/delivery-systems/:

Recent Developments and Current Status

"In 2005, India and Pakistan signed an agreement requiring both parties to provide advance notice of any ballistic missile tests. [43] Since 2007, testing activity of the Ghauri and Shaheen missiles has slowed and the majority of new developments have appeared in cruise, rather than ballistic missile systems. [44] Potential causes for this include India's investment in a ballistic missile defense system, the Ghauri and Shaheen missiles acquiring sufficient range and payload to target strategic locations in India, international pressure against intermediate- and long-range ballistic missile tests, and a shift in focus toward developing a tactical nuclear capability. [45]

[Aditional comment - the Shaheen 2 MRBM has been six times since 2004, and this missile system probably will soon be deployed]

The 2005 inaugural test-flight of the Hatf-7/Babur cruise missile stunned many observers for its technological complexity and its undetected development. [46] The extent of foreign assistance remains unclear —analysts identified design similarities with Chinese cruise missiles as well as American Tomahawk missiles, which previously crash-landed over Pakistan. [47] In 2007, Pakistan test-fired the Hatf-8/Ra'ad cruise missile, adding air-launch missile capabilities to the Pakistan Air Force. [48] While Pakistan officially claimed that NDC indigenously developed the Hatf-8, some believe that the modest range of the missile suggests foreign assistance by a country unwilling to contravene MTCR range and payload restrictions. [49] More recently, Pakistan test-fired the Hatf-9/NASR, a short-range nuclear-capable ballistic missile in April 2011. Observers immediately speculated that the Hatf-9/NASR test indicated potential Pakistani intention to develop a tactical nuclear capability —an interest potentially motivated further by India's "Cold Start" doctrine. [50]

Despite flight test successes, however, analysts remain sceptical about Pakistan's indigenous design and manufacturing capabilities. The lack of robust government-industry-university R&D linkages, a known dependence on foreign suppliers for key raw materials such as steel alloys, and the technological inexperience of private industry cast doubt upon Pakistan's missile design claims. [51]

While Pakistani scientists increasingly participate in basic science collaboration with foreign laboratories, such as the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN), the country's industrial base lacks a demonstrated history of producing quality high-tech products. [52] A history of indigenous design claims refuted by intelligence sources further complicates assessments. [53] Analysts estimate that even gaining liquid propulsion expertise will take until at least 2013. [54] Thus, Pakistani missile development will likely remain dependent on foreign assistance for both materials and expertise in the near-term. Nevertheless Pakistan has maintained a successful missile acquisition strategy in spite of foreign dependence and a history of MTCR and U.S. Arms Export Control Act and Export Administration Act sanctions, and already boasts one of the top ten ballistic missile manufacturing capabilities in the world. [55]

Barring unprecedented industrial growth and a substantially enhanced defense-industrial base, Pakistan will likely continue its strategy of developing advanced missile systems with foreign assistance rather than pursuing the more expensive and less feasible option of pure indigenous development or advanced aircraft acquisition. [56] Continued state patronage, fuelled by competition with India, the high prestige accorded to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, and the symbolic value of diversifying missile delivery systems will likely sustain continued missile development in Pakistan.[57]

* This material is produced independently for NTI by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of and has not been independently verified by NTI or its directors, officers, employees, or agents. Copyright © 2013 National Journal Group, Inc., 600 New Hampshire Ave., N.W., Washington, DC 20037."

See the rest of this analysis and references-endnotes at http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/pakistan/delivery-systems/
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Pete

Pakistan's three Agosta 90B (Khalid Class) submarines

Pakistan's 3 x Agosta 90B's (Khalid Class) are the most modern and effective units in its submarine arm, pending the introduction of 8 Chinese export Yuans.

Agosta 90B specs:

Crew 36 men + 5 officers + Navy "Seals" frogmen?

Length 67.6m

Draught 5.4m

Surface Displacement 1,510t

Submerged Displacement 1,760t or 2,050t with AIP MESMA plug added.

Maximum Speed Over 17kt

Range 10,000nm

See also http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/agosta/

The Agosta submarines designed by Naval Group of France, are currently in service with the Spanish and Pakistan navies. 

They can dive to 350m using their HLES 80 pressure hull steel.

Agosta Class submarine orders and deliveries

Three Agosta 90Bs were ordered by the Pakistan Navy in September 1994. The first, Khalid (S137), was built at Naval Group's Cherbourg yard and was commissioned in 1999. The second, Saad, assembled at Karachi Naval Dockyard, was launched in August 2002 and was commissioned in December 2003. The third, Hamza, was constructed and assembled in Karachi, launched in August 2006 and commissioned in September 2008.

"The Agosta 90B is an improved version of the Agosta submarine, featuring higher performance and a new combat system."

 

Work on the Hamza was halted for a time following a terrorist attack in May 2002, which killed 11 French engineers in Karachi. The third submarine was fitted with the MESMA air-independent propulsion system. The MESMA AIP successfully completed Pakistan Navy acceptance trials. In March 2007, Pakistan placed an order with DCNS for the retrofit of the MESMA AIP to the first two Khalid Class submarines, whcih were delivered in December 2011.

Pakistan has been given a license by DCNS to offer commercial production of the submarines to potential customers.

SUBTICS command and control system 

The Agosta 90B submarines are equipped with a SUBTICS fully integrated combat system. This is supplied by UDS International, a joint subsidiary of DCN International? and Thales, now wholly owned by Naval Group. SUBTICS processes signals from the submarine's sensors, determines the tactical situation by track association, fusion, synthesis, trajectory plotting and management and handles all weapon command and control functions.

Torpedoes

The Agosta 90B submarine is fitted with four bow 533mm torpedo tubes and has the capacity to carry a mixed load of up to 16 torpedoes and missiles. The submarine can be equipped with the ECAN F17 mod 2 torpedo, which is a wire-guided torpedo with active and passive homing to a range of 20km. The torpedo delivers a 250kg warhead to a depth of 600m.

Exocet missiles

The Agosta 90B is equipped with the torpedo tube launched MBDA (formerly EADS Aerospatiale) Exocet SM39 missile. Target range and bearing data is downloaded into the Exocet's computer.

The missile approaches the target area in sea-skimming mode using inertial navigation and then active radar homing. The missile travels at speeds over Mach 0.9, and has a range of 50km. Exocet has a 165kg high-explosive shaped-charge warhead. [it is not inconceivable that some of the Exocet warheads might be nuclear - for land attack].

Electronic warfare

The Agosta 90B submarines are equipped with the Thales DR-3000U radar warning receiver, operating in D to K bands. The system uses a masthead antenna array with omnidirectional and monopulse directional antennae and a separate periscope warning antenna.

Sensor suite

The submarine is fitted with a Thales Underwater Systems (formerly Thomson Marconi Sonar) TSM 223 sonar suite, which includes bow-mounted sonar and towed sonar arrays, SAGEM periscopes and navigation system and Thales I-band navigation radar.

Propulsion systems

The Agosta 90B class submarines can be equipped with a diesel-electric propulsion system [and] the MESMA air-independent propulsion system. The diesel-electric system consists of two SEMT-Pielstick 16 PA4 V 185 VG diesels providing 3,600hp and a 2,200kW electric motor driving a single propeller.

A diesel-electrical submarine has to surface to periscope-snorkel depth to recharge the batteries using the diesel engine, leading to increased risk of detection.

The MESMA air-independent propulsion system, being fitted to the Agosta 90B submarines for Pakistan, allows the submarine to remain submerged three times longer (three weeks is the popular estimate).  The MESMA system consists essentially of a turbine receiving high-pressure steam from a combustion chamber, burning a gaseous mixture of ethanol and liquid oxygen. The Agosta 90B's performance remains the same in all other respects, except that with the 9m long MESMA "plug" added the length increases from 67m to 76m and submerged displacement from 1,760t to 2,050t."

Pete