The second Agni 5 test, any MIRV?

 

Unclear what payload Agni V can carry at the maximum 5,000 km range.
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Agni 5's second test.

Notably the second Agni test was for one warhead but what about the three warhead MIRV testing?
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Comments on Agni 5's first test - which took place in April 2012

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India conducted its second Agni 5 ICBM test flight from Wheeler Island, Orissa on September 15, 2013. The Agni 5 has the range to fire a 500 kg warhead 8,000 km covering China, Japan, parts of Russia, most of Southeast Asia, much of Australia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and parts of Western Europe.

The Agni 5 is about 17 meters long, weighs 50 tonnes and has three rocket booster stages. It can be launched from a road mobile vehicle, hardened silo or from a special railway wagon.

The first test of the Agni 5 missile was conducted on April 19, 2012. The development of Agni 5 began in 2009 (according to DRDO). It may begin to be deployed from 2015.

The highly publicised second test is to a degree domestically aimed at justifying the high expense of missile development to the public and broader Indian Government (which has many competing interests for the money spent). The launch is a genuine source of pride for many in India and concern in Pakistan and China. Information on the Agni 5 ICBM (defined as 5,500+km range) test was highly detailed. Almost all parametres except multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicle (MIRV) separation may have been tested.

The Agni 5 is arguably an Agni 3 with a third stage. The Agni 5 range may be 5,000 km with a 1,500 kg payload (with 3 multiple re-entry vehicles (MIRVs))  and (reportedly) 8,000 km with a 500 kg (one RV) payload. Agni 5 is specifically designed to have an average (probably 1,000 kg payload) range to strike all of China.

One of several reasons for developing the Agni 5 is as a response to China's similar weight, highly land mobile DF-21. While the DF-21 has an estimated range of only 3,000 km, when placed near the China-India border a DF-21 could hit all targets in India. In contrast an Agni 5 on the Indian side of the same border needs to boost warheads the length of China (5,000 km) to hit Beijing and Shanghai.

India's planned SLBMs in indigenous SSBNs will eventually provide the most survivable second and first strike option. Notably the US, France and UK have steadily shifted the majority of their active nuclear warheads to SSBNs over the last 30 years.

India's SLBMs from the defendable waters of the Indian Ocean will need a range of at least 6,500 km to hit any target in China. India's proposed plan of fitting 3 - 5,000 km range navalised Agni 3 SLBMs to its future SSBNs would require these SSBNs to transit the dangerous chokepoints in the Indonesian Archipelago to get within range. Chinese SSNs may guard these chokepoints. These high SLBM strategic and technical requirements in part explain why India at present is emphasising the land mobile Agni 5 component of its evolving nuclear triad.

Shorter range Prithvi  and Agni 1 and 2 missiles encompass Pakistan but Agni 3+ are needed to reach much of China and Agni 5 all of China. The proposed future Surya ICBM class will be able to hit any targets on the planet particularly other nuclear powers.

Agni 5 is or will be “all-composite” that is light casings in its booster stages to extend its range or to permit a heavier payload. According to DRDO sources, an MIRV payload would be significantly heavier since it would consist of several nuclear warheads, each weighing about 400 kg. A five-warhead MIRV, therefore, would weigh two tonnes.

About four additional and successful Agni 5 tests will be required before Agni 5 can be deployed (perhaps in 2015 more likely 2017) as India's long range deterrent missile.

See this blog's reports of Agni 5's first test at http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/latest-news-of-agni-v-test-may-be.html .
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Pete
 

Indian strategic weapons programs - gradual progress

The following Indian strategic weapon update indicates gradual progress in several areas. No weapons mentioned in the article are fully developed and will not be fully operational for several years.  India's Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) update is partly to justify, to the public and politicians, the considerable amounts spent on weapons development.

Updates provided by DRDO include:

another test later this year of the Agni 5  ICBM. The test subsequently occurred on September 15, 2013 - see http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/a-second-agni-5-test-any-mirv.html

the reactor of Indian built submarine INS Arihant may go critical - it went critical on August 10, 2013 http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2013/08/ins-arihants-reactor-goes-critical.html 

a July 2013 test of India's future Ballistic Missile Defence system - see earlier test information - http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/another-successful-advanced-air-defence.html

another test of India's (part Israeli designed) Nirbhay cruise missile - details of first test http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nirbhay_missile#First_Trial and

further tests of the Astra air-to-air and Nag anti-tank missiles.

In May 2013 V.K. Saraswat (above right) Director-General of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Scientific Advisor to the Indian Defence Minister, was interviewed  (Read: Transcript of full interview) concerning a number of Indian strategic weapon programs, including India's first indigenously built submarine INS Arihant .

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On May 28, 2013, based on the Saraswat interview, The Hindu published the following article concerning:

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/agniv-to-be-modified-to-attack-multiple-targets/article4758676.ece

"Agni-V to be modified to attack multiple targets

Weapon system to be fitted with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles

The configuration of Agni-V, India’s long-range nuclear weapons capable ballistic missile, is set to be changed to make the 5,000-km weapon system deadlier and capable of attacking multiple targets.
 

The modification is to enable fitting Agni-V with Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs), V.K. Saraswat, Director-General of the Defence Research and Development Organisation and Scientific Advisor to the Defence Minister, told The Hindu. Another test in the present configuration of the three-stage missile would be conducted later this year.

 

Besides imparting canister-launch capability, Agni-V would be equipped with MIRVs. “Work on that is going on and it is at design stage.”

 

The resounding success of the maiden flight test of Agni-V in April 2012 catapulted India into a select league of nations having the technological prowess to develop Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles, he said. The Agni series will form the bulwark of land version of India’s nuclear deterrence triad.

  

Meanwhile, the reactor on board the indigenously-built nuclear powered submarine, INS Arihant, is expected to go critical in a few weeks. The powering of the system should happen in a week or two, Dr. Saraswat said.

 

(Once that happens, the 80-MWt (thermal) reactor would be in a position to deliver power to the platform and sea trials of Arihant would begin subsequently when the submarine is expected to move at the designed speed, go to the diving depth, attain maximum speed and perform all safety and emergency operations).

 

Referring to the home-grown Ballistic Missile Defence programme, he said the next interceptor missile test to be conducted at a higher altitude of 100-150 km in July would be the most important one. “We have developed a new interceptor missile for it.”

 

Another crucial DRDO missile test this year would be a “repeat launch” of ‘Nirbhay’. During the maiden trial of the subsonic cruise missile, the flight had to be terminated midway after it strayed from its trajectory. Dr. Saraswat attributed the problem to a manufacturing defect in the navigation sensor. Flight tests of air-to-air Astra and anti-tank Nag missiles would be also conducted."
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COMMENT

The Indian Government has indicated that once Arihant's nuclear reactor (under development for two decades) goes critical, Arihant will undergo several years of sea trials. Arihant, has already undergone limited trials at India's East coast naval base at Visakhapatnam for the last three years.

The induction of INS Arihant into the Indian Navy's fleet will complete the crucial link in India's nuclear triad - the ability to fire nuclear weapons from land, air and sea.  So far, only the US, Russia, France, China, the UK (and possibly Israel) have the capability to launch a submarine-based ballistic missile.

There is some concern over the overall strength of India's submarine fleet. India has 14 conventional diesel-electric submarines. Most are aging and outdated.

 

Not mentioned in the DRDO update is India's most formidable submarine - the nuclear powered attack submarine INS Chakra (formerly the Russian Nerpa) long leased from Russia and built in Russia based on the Akula II design.

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Pete

A 2nd or 3rd Agni-5 test in late 2013?

 

Agni-5 (aka Agni 5 and Agni-V) presentation at DRDO.

 





Comparing Agni-5 (Agni-V) with Agni I, II and III.

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Agni-5 video (above) dated April 2012 dubbed by Indians as "India's China killer"

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Agni-5 research details from DRDO.
 

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The second Agni 5 test subsequently occurred on September 15, 2013 - see http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/a-second-agni-5-test-any-mirv.html


Ajai Shukla of India's Business Standard reports from New Delhi,  May 8, 2013 http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/advanced-agni-6-missile-with-multiple-warheads-likely-by-2017-113050800034_1.html . Excerpts relevant to Agni-5 include:

...the Defence R&D Organisation (DRDO) has briefed Business Standard about the direction of India's ballistic missile development programme after the Agni-5 enters service, probably in 2015.

Once the ongoing Agni-5 programme concludes flight-testing, the defence ministry (MoD) will formally okay the Agni-6 programme and allocate funding.

Eventually the Agni-6 will be no taller than the Agni-5, i.e. about 17 metres, says Chander. It will, however, be heavier and thicker - slightly over two metres - which will cater for the different shape of the MIRV payload.

"The timeframe for developing a new missile system is about five years and the DRDO has mostly achieved this in the Agni programme," says Chander. Calculating five years from April 2012, when the Agni-5 had its debut launch, the first test of the Agni-6 could happen in 2017.

The DRDO says the Agni-6 will have a longer range than the 5,000-kilometre Agni-5, but is not mentioning figures. "The MARVs and MIRVs will give us extended range. I will not be able to tell you how much because that is secret," Saraswat told Business Standard.

Currently, the DRDO is readying for the second test next month of the Agni-5 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile. This will be fired in the same configuration as its debut test a year ago, in order to establish the missile's reliability. A third test by end-2013 will see the missile fired from a canister.

"We will conduct at least five-six more Agni-5 tests before the missile enters operational service. After the repeat test this month or the next, we will conduct two test firings from a canister. Then the military units that will operate the Agni-5 will conduct two-three test firings as part of the induction process. Even after induction, the users conduct test firings as part of the Strategic Forces Command training plan," says Avinash Chander.

The Agni-5 is a three-stage, solid-fuel missile but its first stage consists of a metallic rocket motor, while the second and third stages have composite motors."

 

Comment

 

Connect with http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/latest-news-of-agni-v-test-may-be.html concerning the April 2012 first test of the Agni-5 where I raised the issue of MIRVs.
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Pete

 

Agni V's first test - in April 2012

Rather chilling but informative youtube of the Agni V including its launch characteristics.

The inner circle (above) represents Agni II's range, middle Agni III's extended range and outer (probably) Agni V's average range.
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see report of Agni V's second test - of September 15, 2013 - at http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/a-second-agni-5-test-any-mirv.html

The first test of Agni V on April 19,  2012 from Wheeler Island, Orissa, India, is to a degree domestically aimed at justifying the high expense of missile development to the broader Indian Government (which has many competing interests for the money spent) and the public. The launch is a genuine source of pride for many in India and concern in Pakistan and China. Information on the Agni V ICBM (defined as 5,500+km range) test was highly detailed. Almost all parametres except multiple independently targetted reentry vehicle (MIRV) separation may have been tested.

The Agni V is arguably an Agni III with a third stage. The Agni V range may be 5,000 km with a 1,500 kg (3 RVs MIRVed) payload and (reportedly) 8,000 km with a 500 kg (one RV) payload. An Agni V could boost a 500 kg thermonuclear warhead to most of Western Europe, all of China and Japan and central Australia (just over Pine Gap, next to Alice Springs).

Agni V is specifically designed to have an average (probably 1,000 kg payload) range to strike all of China. While Agni V is vulnerable to satellite tracking its high mobility (on TELs and rail-carriages) gives it a second and first strike capability.

One of several reasons for developing the Agni V is as a response to China's similar weight, highly land mobile DF-21. While the DF-21 has an estimated range of only 3,000 km, when placed near the China-India border a DF-21 could hit all targets in India. In contrast an Agni V on the Indian side of the same border needs to boost warheads the length of China (5,000 km) to hit Beijing and Shanghai.

India's planned SLBMs in indigenous SSBNs will eventually provide the most survivable second and first strike option. Notably the US, France and UK have steadily shifted the majority of their active nuclear warheads to SSBNs over the last 30 years.

India's SLBMs from the defendable waters of the Indian Ocean will need a range of at least 6,500 km to hit any target in China. India's proposed plan of fitting 3 - 5,000 km range navalised Agni III SLBMs to its future SSBNs would require these SSBNs to transit the dangerous chokepoints in the Indonesian Archipelago to get within range. Chinese SSNs may guard these chokepoints. These high SLBM strategic and technical requirements in part explain why India at present is emphasising the land mobile Agni V component of its evolving nuclear triad.

Shorter range Prithvi  and Agni I and II missiles encompass Pakistan but Agni III+ are needed to reach much of China and Agni V all of China. The proposed future Surya ICBM class (Agni is just marginally and ICBM) will be able to hit any targets on the planet particularly other nuclear powers.

On MIRV? - See this page on Defence Forum of India . On this page 19-04-12 08:56 PM LethalForce has reproduced my Agni V post as it stood on 19 April before I revised it. At 19-04-12 09:07 PM LethalForce asked "Australian article says it is a 3 warhead MIRV? anyone have conformation of this? " . My point is I anticipated MIRV was an outstanding issue because at that time Indian authorities had not mentioned it in connection with this Agni V test. MIRV as it applied to Indian missiles first appeared on me blog in January 2008 then MIRV on navalised Agni III SL February 2011. Several hours later DRDO chief V K Saraswat appeared to respond to the MIRV issue ""We go from here to many other missiles which will have capability for MIRV..., for anti-satellite system, ..."

On 22 April 2012 "Anonymous provided additional information "Avinash Chander, DRDO’s chief controller of missiles, explained such a missile would be “all-composite”. The Agni-5 has three stages, with the second and third stage built of composite materials. The next missile will have a composite first stage as well, making it lighter and, therefore, able to carry a heavier payload than the 1.5-tonne payload of the current Agni-5. According to DRDO sources, an MIRV payload would be significantly heavier since it would consist of several nuclear warheads, each weighing about 400 kg. A five-warhead MIRV, therefore, would weigh two tonnes."

About five additional and successful Agni V tests will be required before Agni V can be deployed (perhaps in 2016) as India's long range deterrent missile.
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See the extended Comments Section below which contributes much on the physical and political issues of the Agni V test and about ballistic missiles in general.
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Pete