Submarines Matters Donor Only Viewable in under 13 Hours

Hi Donors

I've notice some Donors have not yet accepted the invitations which will allow you to continue to view Submarine Matters (for one year) after it becomes Donor Only at 1am GMT, July 31, 2021, ie. in just under 13 hours. It is possible some Invitations ended up in email-Spam bins.

I have just sent a reminder Email to those Donors who have not yet accepted the Invitation.

Between July 20 and 25, 2021 I emailed Invitations (through the Blogger/Blogspot/Google system) to you to become "Custom Readers". The Invitations come in the form of blogger/blogspot/Google notices. The "Custom Reader" system is the way to limit Submarine Matters to viewing by Donors Only. 

The Submarine Matters Invitation then needs to be accepted by you in a short process which I understand also involves gmail.  

With Submarine Matters becoming viewable by Donors Only this will permit me to place the Special Reports (next one coming August 15, 2021) and substantial articles onto the Submarine Matters website. Donors will then not need to hunt for old Special Report emails long after I emailed them on the 15th of every month (for a year).  

I've found the Donor system is much more personal as it involves direct emails. So I can respond with tailored responses much more quickly than before. Such personal contact keeps me going more than anything else.

For Non-Donors.

To become a Donor please contact me at pete74730@yahoo.com.au . I will then send you an invoice. 

Regards

Pete

China Spits Dummy: HMS Queen Elizabeth in South China Sea

Drawing from the USNI’s July 25, 2021 article:

After months at sea already the HMS Queen Elizabeth (QE) Carrier Strike Group (CSG21) is making its way into the South China Sea. QE is RO8 at approximate position in the southern (Singapore) end of the Malacca Strait. China is seemingly aggro at the presence of QE, in the sense that China is spitting the dummy.

CSG21 has split into different elements following the conclusion of Exercise Konkan with the Indian Navy (held July 21-22 in the Bay of Bengal). Separately QE and its remaining surface escorts conducted a PASSEX Exercise on July 25 in the Malacca Strait with the Royal Malaysian Navy’s two Lekiu class frigates, KD Lekiu and KD Jebat.

KD Lekiu, QE and Netherlands frigate HNLMS Evertsen (background) at PASSEX exercise in the Malacca Strait, July 25. (Photo courtesy Malaysian Navy via USNI).
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CSG21 includes:

-  Type 23 frigates HMS Richmond (conducted PASSEX exercise, July 24, in the
    Andaman Sea with Thai frigate HTMS Kraburi) and HMS Kent
-  Type 45 destroyer HMS Defender (on July 25 it docked at Muara Naval Base, Brunei)
-  UK Royal Fleet Auxiliaries RFA Fort Victoria and RFA Tidespring
-  the USN destroyer USS The Sullivans
-  Dutch frigate HNLMS Evertsen and
-  the SSN HMS Artful. (sighted midday July 25 travelling through the Singapore Strait
    and heading to the South China Sea).

On the carrier QE is US F-35B Squadron 211 along with F-35Bs of the RAF’s 617 “The Dambusters.” F-35B Squadron.
 

QE is expected to dock in Singapore (already or soon).

China Spits Dummy

Seemingly the pot calling the kettle black (given China's own aggressive military/naval activities in the South China Sea) Chinese Defence Spokesman Tan Kefei's, July 28 was reported as saying:

“The Chinese side believes that the South China Sea should not become a sea of great power rivalry dominated by weapons and warships. The real source of militarisation in the South China Sea comes from countries outside this region sending their warships [like the UK's CSG21] thousands of kilometres from home to flex muscles...The Chinese military will take necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty, security and development interest...It will also take measures to promote peace and stability in the South China Sea.”

The UK elements of CSG21 are expected in October 2021 to take part in the (Indo-Pacific) Five Power Defence Arrangements (FPDA) Bersama Gold exercise. Normally known as Bersama Lima, the annual sea and air exercise was renamed for this year to mark the golden anniversary of the FPDA, which comprises of Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Singapore and the United Kingdom.

Submarine Cost Estimates Need To Include Maintenance

Below TKMS finally sells 212CDs: 4 for Norwegian Navy, 2 for German drawing from Anonymous kindly provided comments of July 26, 20221:

Poland’s submarine budget (around US$897 million per submarine = US$2.6 Billion / 3 submarines [1] ) is less than the price for German/Norwegian Type 212CDs. (On July 29, 2021 /Kjell reported that that Norways 4 x 212CDs cost estimated March 23, 2021 "45 Billion NOK" = US$5.12 Billion (this equals US$1.3 Billion per sub). Meanwhile the 2 x 212CDs for Germany, estimated June 23, 2021, cost 2.7 Billion Euro = US$3.2 Billion (this equals US$1.6 Billion per sub).  

On July 30, 2021 Anonymous reported a major issues for TKMS is management instability resulting in rumours TKMS may be aquired by Italy's Fincantieri [2]. If TKMS loses its submarine bids in Netherlands and/or Poland the rumor may come true.

Are maintenance costs, for example spare parts, included for the Type 212CD purchase? In the earlier purchase of Type 212As for the German Navy, procurement of spare parts was not included in the contract. This led to reliance on cannibalistic maintenance for spare parts.

This can also be compared with the contract value of 2 x Blekinge-class A26s submarines at around US$475 million each (US$949 million based on 8.2 billion SEK total for 2 subs in 2015 [3]) Maintenance costs seem to be included.

[1]  https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/07/poland-seeking-new-frigates-and.html

[2] See "Fincantieri declined to comment about interest in Thyssenkrupp Marine System” of May 14, 2021 at https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/fincantieri-declined-comment-about-interest-thyssenkrupp-marine-system-2021-05-14/

[3] https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blekinge-klass Swedish Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist announced on 17 March 2015 that the Swedish government had ordered for 2 x A26s from Saab Kockums AB, for a maximum of SEK 8.2 billion. [“9” https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/6119284 ] . The US$475 million each in 2015 would be substantially more in 2021. In any case US$475 million each is a Swedish Navy only price which would be much higher for potential foreign customers (currently the Netherlands).  

The 15 Year SSN(X)/"Seawolf 2" Debate Awaits

Many in the USN submarine ("USNsub") service are arguing that a high spec (hence high US$5-6 Billion cost) Future Attack Submarine aka "SSN(X)" is required from the early 2040s to have the edge over improving Chinese and Russian SSNs/SSGNs. 

USNsub desire a large "Seawolf 2" solution carrying about 50 heavyweight shots ie. a larger proportion of torpedoes and anti-ship missiles and lower proportion of Virginia class favoured land attack Tomahawks. Hypersonic anti-ship and hypersonic land attack missiles would also feature. 

A 15 year debate is likely - similar to the earlier Seawolf-class (29 envisaged, only 3 built) Debate. Those opposing the USNsub lobby are likely to be the USN surface force lobby, whole of Navy lobby, other armed services, Pentagon bureaucracy and Congress. They may push for a continuation of Virginia-class construction through to the 2050s or a lower spec class than a "Seawolf 2".

Programs competing with the SSN(X) include:

-  12 Columbia-class SSBNs 

-  "Ground Based Strategic Deterrent" replacements for the 450 Minuteman-III ICBMs 

-  20+ new Constalletion-class frigates   

-  20+? 10,000 ton cruiser sized Future/Large Surface Combatant aka DDG(X) Program

-  Many different types of land, sea and air launched Hypersonic Missiles.

-  and many other weapon, personnel and new base building programs.

It is inevitable that the SSN(X) program will be more expensive than the Columbia-class.  With 2 main near-peer competitors, Russia and China (the latter having a huge economy), the US will need to intensively debate and economize on its submarine choices.  

Here and below is a useful 5 minute, May 27, 2021, video on the SSN(X) which seems to be according to USNsub lobby aspirations. For example, from 34 seconds in the Video claims the USN is planning SSN(X) deployment "beginning in 2031". That is more than 10 years before other lobbies and factions estimate the first SSN(X) will deploy (in the early 2040s).

Pete

AIP for India Issues: Excellent Article for Donors

An excellent article by Ghalib Kabir has just been emailed to Donors. 

This is regarding AIP and other sensitive tech for India - in the context of the Kalvari-class submarines and also P-75(I for India) tender process.

Pete 

USN Looking at Fitting SSN(X)s with Inflatable Sails

When I read The Drive's July 20, 2021 article :

The [USN] Is Looking At Fitting Its Future Attack Submarines With Inflatable Sails

I checked that it was not a late entry for April 1st (Fools Day).

The inflatable nature "sail" or "fin" (what used to be called a "conning tour") involves immediate and possible problems, many and varied.

1.  The article rightly comments a fin "has an important function of breaking through the ice and providing initial access outside of the sub when operating in polar regions."

So I ask: would the lack of a rigid sail require instead a separate ice piercing spike to penetrate the ice? 

This is especially if there is a need for emergency surfacing - say a US SSN, while under the ice, was damaged by a Russian or Chinese torpedo?

Or what if the reactor needed an emergency shut down while under the ice (in peace or war)?

Even if a spike breaks through the ice and the sail is then inflated polar bears (I kid you not) are known to try to attack parts of surfaced SSNs. Might a hard bear bite deflate the sail? 

2.  The article also rightly comments: "Above all else, the sail is normally used to house important sensors like periscopes, communication antenna masts, as well as electromagnetic and radar sensor systems."

So how could the various optronic (aka photonic) masts and antennas penetrate a damaged, hence un-inflatable or improperly deflated, sail?

Also the sail might need to be inflated while the sub is submerged (running shallow) if the sub's Captain wanted to deploy his 360 degree search mast or attack mast to peak just above the surface?

3.  The inflatable sail would need to be very rigid indeed to remain rigid in high winds and rough seas, particularly when the captain (and up to 4 crew) are standing on top of the sail when the sub is exiting or entering the port area. I understand the approaches to US mainland bases, US overseas sub bases and the UK Clyde/Faslane base can experience very rough swells. Might a flexible mast bend the Captain and watch members into the sea? 

How could you safely/efficiently deflate a sail for stowage in high winds and rough seas?

4. Fortunately the article also raises "ballistic protection against small arms fire."

Even short of foreign country naval threats, might a nutter, terrorist or smuggler with a US$200 light machinegun cause enough damage to deflate the sail, thus crippling a US$5 Billion SSN(X)?

In the end.

5. Once a sail is damage and deflated would it be easily stowable so the sub can efficiently dive and continue efficienctly and safely on its mission?

Can anyone think of any other pitfalls of inflatable/deflatable sails?

Big problems buying Nuclear Subs from the US.

Excellent essay  https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/buying-military-hardware-from-the-us-wish-list-or-shopping-list/

Invitations to DONORS just sent, July 21, 2021

I have just finished emailing Invitations to DONORs, to become "Custom Readers". The Invitations come in the form of blogger/blogspot/Google notices. The "Custom Reader" system is the way to limit Submarine Matters International (SMI) to viewing by Donors Only. 

The Invitation then needs to be accepted by Donors in a short process which I understand also involves gmail. The July 21 timing gives Donors plenty of time before SMI becomes Donor Viewable Only on July 31, 2021, for one year.

With SMI becoming viewable by Donors Only this will permit me to place the Special Reports (one sent July 15, 2021 so far) and substantial articles onto the SMI website. Donors will then not need to hunt for old Special Report emails long after I emailed them on the 15th of every month (for a year).  

Also the Comments Section, below Special Reports/articles, will be open to Comments from Donors Only (aka "Team Members"). Donors Only also has the advantage of keeping out the many SPAM comments I receive each day AND preventing Non-Donors asking such questions as "What does AIP stand for?"

For Non-Donors.
To become a Donor please contact me at pete74730@yahoo.com.au . I will then send you an invoice. 

Regards

Pete

Poland Seeking New Frigates and Submarines

The very interesting paysite magazine Warships International Fleet Review (WIFR) reports in its July 2021 edition, paged 8, Poland sees it essential to acquire 3 frigate sized coastal defence vessels (under Poland's Miecznik "Swordfish"  Program). These 3 ships would be armed with ASMs and would replace Poland's 2 aging Oliver Hazard Perry frigates. Whether new frigates have a higher priority than new submarines is unknown.

[Janes reports: "The first company invited to participate in the program was Polish Remontowa Shipbuilding, with subsequent invitations sent out to naval companies across Europe. The consortium has received six proposals from five potential bidders to date, each with technology transfer arrangements to local shipyards. However, further details on these remain confidential."]

Under the Orka Program Poland still wants to acquire 3 submarines. Three competitors have expressed interest:

- Naval Group: with Scorpenes to mount MBDA cruise missiles
- TKMS: Type 212CDs, and
- Saab: A26s

It is unclear which Polish submarines (if any) are in service. Poland's last Kobbens (ORP Sep and ORP Bielik ) which are more than 50 years old, now appear to be decommissioned. Poland's 35 year old Kilo sub ORP Orzel may be in service but at that age may not be able to safely dive deeply due to metal fatigue. Also as Orzel was built by Poland's virtual enemy, Russia, Russia would be fully aware of Orzel's many vulnerabilities. Unless Poland speeds up the Orka Preogram it may not have new submarines before 2030. 

Warships International Fleet Review reports Poland has a 1.9 Billion UK pound [equivalent to US$2.6 Billion] budget (implicitly for the 3 new subs) - though it is not precisely spelled out what that budget covers.

Post Nanggala Stocktake of Old Columbian Submarines

In submarine news essential reading Warships International Fleet Review's Chief Analyst, Usman Ansari, reports, July 2021, page 9.

Columbia plans to replace its 2 x Type 209s and 2 x 206As (Intrepido and Indomable) in 20 years time (by which time they will be 66 years old! no less) by which time they will reach their pressure hull immersion cycle safe maximums. All are allegedly well maintained. Both 209s and Intrepido were commissioned in 1975 and Indomable (into the West German Navy in 1974). 

All those 2009s and 206As have played "enemy" in exercises aginst the USN's surface ASW and all nuclear sub force. 

[Pete Comment: Their small size and economical running costs (compared to US SSNs) also means the Columbian SSKs do much anti Latin American drug smuggling surveillance in coordination with the USN and US Coast Guard surface fleet, satellites and aircraft.]

See my November 15, 2015 report on these Columbian subs.  

I suspect the very old 209 KRI Nanggala's sinking (Nanggala was launched 1980 hence 5-7 years younger than the Columbian subs) has prompted other navies with old subs to do a public stocktake to justify old sub retention that sometimes is risky. 

Pete

Exercise Talisman Sabre 2021: Large Missile Launchings

 Drawing from Australia's excellent Asia-Pacific Defence Reporter's, July 19, 2021 report:

"Talisman Sabre has officially begun; forces conduct live fire"

Australia’s largest bilateral exercise with the US, Exercise Talisman Sabre (TS), has officially commenced for 2021. TS is a high-end war fighting exercise  designed to enhance interoperability between the Australian Defence Force and the US Armed Forces. TS reflects the strength of the Australia-US Alliance and the close, enduring nature of our military-to-military relationship. TS will involve more than 17,000 personnel from Australia and the US.

Also forces from Canada, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea and the UK will participate. Australia-based personnel [probably mainly defence attaches] from India, Indonesia, France and Germany will observe TS. 

TS is essential to maintaining high-levels of interoperability between US and Australian forces. The majority of TS activities take place on Australian Defence bases, as well as training areas across central and northeast Queensland, Australia and off the east coast of Australia. TS 2021 is the ninth iteration of the exercise and incorporates force preparation activities, amphibious landings, ground force manoeuvre, urban operations, and air combat and maritime operations. It also coincides with the 70th anniversary of the signing of the ANZUS Treaty.

Live Fire Exercise

On July 18, 2021 forces from Australia, the US and Japan took part in a live fire exercise at Shoalwater Bay Training Area, Queensland. The exercise employed naval gun fire, fixed and rotary wing air strikes, and artillery including the US  Marine Corps High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HiMARS). The live-fire exercise at Shoalwater Bay involved the following platforms:

·       M-777 Howitzer (Australian and United States)

·       High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (United States Marine Corps and United States Army)

·       AH-1Z Cobra attack helicopters (United States)

·       Tiger Armed Reconnaissance Helicopter (Australian)

·       Shadow Unmanned Aerial System (Australian)

·       F-35B Joint Strike Fighter (United States Marine Corps)

·       F/A-18A Hornets (Australian)

·       CH-47 Chinook (Australian)

·       UH-1Y Iroquois (United States)

·       Naval gun fire from:    

o   HMAS Ballarat (Australian)

o   HMAS Parramatta (Australian)

o   USS Rafael Peralta (US) and

o   JS Makiname (Japan)

 SEE APDR's EXCELLENT ARTICLE IN FULL HERE.

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(Above and below) Soldiers from the US Army's 1-1 Air Defense Artillery Battalion fire a Patriot missile from a launcher during Exercise Talisman Sabre 21, July 16, 2021, at Camp Growl, Queensland, Australia. (US Army photo by Maj. Trevor Wild, 38th ADA BDE Public Affairs.) (Photo Credit: Maj. Trevor Wild). 

The following is just part of a US Army Pacific Public Affairs report of July 17, 2021:

“US Army Launches Patriot Missiles During Talisman Saber 21

QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA -- U.S. Army Pacific Air and Missile Defense units working with Australian Defence Force counterparts completed the first ever Patriot surface-to-air missile firing on Australian soil during Exercise Talisman Sabre 21 in the Shoalwater Bay Training Area in Queensland, Australia, July 16, 2021.

In the historic first, Soldiers based in Japan and Guam [the 1-1 Air Defense Artillery Battalion ] from 38th Air Defense Artillery Brigade, 94th Army Air and Missile Defense Command, successfully engaged drone targets with Patriot missiles as part of TS 21, Australia’s largest military exercise with the U.S.

For the latest information visit: https://www.dvidshub.net/feature/TalismanSabre21 and https://www1.defence.gov.au/exercises/talisman-sabre-21 “

SEE US ARMY PACIFIC PUBLIC AFFAIRS REPORT IN FULL

Substantial Article on Russia's AIP Just Emailed to Donors

I have just Emailed a substantial article on Russia's AIP to Donors.

If any Non-Donors are interested in:

-  being able to view Donor Only Submarine Matters after July 31, 2021

-  as well as receiving substantial articles and the Special Monthly Reports

please contact my at pete74730@yahoo.com.au . 

Once you subsequently become a Donor by sending me the A$50 donation you can have full access. 

Regards Pete

Russia Saying Goodbye to Most of its Titanium Subs

An excellent article of July 15, 2021 from StrategyPage. Unusually concise. 

Comparing Submarine Forces of China, US & NK.

Hi Donors

On Thursday July 15, 2021, you would have noticed I emailed the First Special Report to you. It compares the Submarine Forces of China, the US & NK, with extensive use of links to every submarine type used by those countries. I hope you enjoy it. 

If you found the WORD.doc attachment difficult to download I can resend the Report on the face of the Email to you. I will use the double presentation method for future Special Reports.

Donors, please email me direct if you find any errors, debatable numbers (there are some!) or have other follow-up questions.

If any Non-Donors are interested in receiving the Report please contact my at pete74730@yahoo.com.au . Once you subsequently become a Donor by sending me the A$50 donation you can read this Report. Not to mention 11 future Reports and have full access to major articles I write.

I will be emailing an article tomorrow, to Donors, identifying the possible AIP technology Russia has been recently advertizing. Russian descriptions of their so called "new" AIP technology (with lots of facy alternative names for AIP) is so contradictory (Hydrogen or no Hydrogen?) that I need to give it more thought.

Regards

Pete

Full Articles and 12 Special Reports to Donors Only

Submarine Matters International (SMI) will now EMAIL full articles (including the 12 Special Reports) to Donors only. Non-Donors will only be alerted, to what they are missing out on, by Headings on SMI. Donors are overwhelmingly readers who donate $A50 per year (currently approx US$37). There is also a much smaller group who have Donated by way of much information for 5+ years. 

I originally aimed at preventing non-Donors from actually viewing/searching SMI. They will be able to view Old articles but not New articles. New articles will instead by Emailed direct to Donors by me from now on. 

Emailing direct to Donors is also usefull because Blogspot (aka Blogger) plans, this month (July), to terminate the service of automatically Emailing articles (in the form of .PDFs) to readers. Instead I will carry on the Email service, but only for Donors.

I plan to write and distribute (to Donors) more articles than previously.

As I will be in direct email contact with Donors I more easily can tailor the subject matter of articles to Donor needs/requirements. Donors can also send me follow-up questions/comments more discretely than by the Public-(below article)-Comments method provided by Blogspot.

Note that only DONORS, via Email to Pete, at pete74730@yahoo.com.au  can now comment on articles. 

For anyone who still wants to Donate (for Full Articles and for the 12 Special Reports) please contact me at pete74730@yahoo.com.au . I will then send you a Donation invoice.

Regards Pete

Chinese Subs by NATO Reporting Names: Displacement

Hi wispywood2344 and Anonymous thank you for your comments of July 4, 2021 and
July 6 respectively. These comments are below the article Chinese Submarines: Big Modelling Intelligence Gap of July 1, 2021.

I'll assemble most unique information on China's nuclear and conventional submarines in articles to Donors and a Special Report to Donors.

1. I will be using the NATO reporting name system which assigns Chinese dynasty names to Chinese submarines. Hence I don't talk of confusing "Type 039" numbers in identifying Song class or Yuan class conventional subs. Use of NATO reporting names removes the power to control and confuse from the potential enemies - be they Russia or China.  

2.  Instead of the three dimensions of batteries (height, depth and width) I am going to rely more on comparative displacement, in metric tonnes, between submarines. Of course their major components, like batteries, will also be totalled into metric tonnes.

Pete 

Poland Not Buying Subs fom Sweden

Thanks /Kjell for the July 4, 2021 comments that Poland did not want to pay for 32 year old second hand Swedish Sodermanland submarnes.

In addition to the age and cost of the sub's Poland would probably wish to buy standard design subs from a fellow NATO ally rather the Sodermanland (which are effectively ophans/unique) from non-NATO Sweden.

Poland's limited defense budget migh also be committed to funding replacements for its 2 x 40 year old Oliver Hazard Perry class frigates. New frigate options include buying UK Type 31 frigates, maybe from other NATO allies or locally built. Replacement frigates would also likely have the Mk. 41 vertical launch silos capable of firing land attack missiles. Poland saw a need for a submarine based land attack cruise missile (SLCM) capability but if Poland's new frigates have this capability new submarines would be a lower priority acquisition.

Poland eventuallly buying subs from a NATO country (probably France or Germany) would strengthen the NATO alliance and serve as a concrete down payment on protection for Poland from the more powerful NATO countries, like the US, France, Germany or the UK.

TKMS finally sells 212CDs: 4 for Norwegian Navy, 2 for German.

Thanks to /Kjell for the July 9, 2021 comment gleaned from Naval News that:

TKMS "has officially been commissioned to build six identical Type 212CD submarines. The procurement organizations of Norway and Germany signed the corresponding contracts on July 8, 2021.

...Worth approx. 5.5 billion Euros, the order comprises the delivery of 2 subs to the German Navy and 4 to the Norwegian Navy."

Australia's Ash Barty: Wimbledon Champion 2021

Viva Ash :)

Ash Barty wins Wimbledon. How Ash did it. 

Japan's Mixed Signals On Defending Taiwan: Submarines.

On Monday July 5, 2021, Japan's Deputy Prime Minister, Taro Aso, said that Japan, supporting US forces, must defend Taiwan if China invades the island due to the "direct [PRC] existential threat" to Japan's security. Aso added "If Taiwan falls, Okinawa will be next. We must think about this seriously, and steadfastly prepare our defence might". Taiwan is just 110km off the coast from Japan's westernmost point, the populated island of Yonaguni.

Aso's hard-line tone is a significant departure from Japan's whole bedrock of post-WWII self defense force policy statements. Under the Biden Administration's US led militarized Quad policies, China is increasingly the enemy to be stopped.

An intervention of the large numbers of conventional Japanese naval (see submarines and surface fleet) aircraft and missile assets may be very helpful to Taiwan. This is partly because Taiwan's own assets might be early and quickly destroyed in a PRC conventional missile first strike. Also the US can only focus relatively smaller conventional naval-air assets (compared to the PRC's growing regional arsenal) in defence of Taiwan. The US nuclear superiority over the PRC would not be helpful as the US would not wish to go to nuclear war over Taiwan.

Japan has significant anti-invasion assets, but it also has a more moderate policy on protecting Taiwan than converyed by Aso on July 5th. After Aso's July 5 comments China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Mr Zhao Lijan predictably responded that Aso "harmed the political foundation of China-Japan relations”.

So on July 6 Aso retracted and retreated to Japan's long held moderate policy - any major tension between the PRC and Taiwan should be resolved through dialogue between PRC and Taiwan. Implicitly Japan's should stay out of any PRC-Taiwan fighting.

But if Aso has been a Japanese equivalent of one of China's new breed of Wolf Warriors his comments could be dismissed as exteme propaganda posturing. Aso is, instead, a very senior politician who has been Deputy Prime Minister since 2012, Minister of Finance since 2012, Minister of Foreign Affairs (2005–2007) and even Prime Minister (2008-2009). He has been in the Japanerse parliament (the "Diet") for 42 years, He is also a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) politician like current Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. So Aso is influential with the Prime Minister, foreign policy and most probably the closely interwoven Japanese defence policy.

SUBMARINES

As well as supportive words to Taiwan from Aso (even if retracted) Japan has been more quietly contributing to Taiwan's program to design and construct 8 submarines. Taiwan has has repeatedly flagged that its new submarines would be of teardrop design. but that may be a deception. I know of no countries who are still building teardrops. More likely Taiwan's submarines will have a more modern sub's cigar shape. 

If Japan were strongly influencing the basic hull design then a Soryu cigar shape may be possible, especially if Taiwan's subs feature AIP for longer terms sitting on the seafloor, guarding the Taiwan Strait.

Many of Japan's own (soon to be) active fleet of 22 submarines could make a major contribution to destroying PRC invasion force subs and major surface vessels trying to cross the Taiwan Strait.

In the medium term, out to 2030, Japanese and Taiwanese navies would work with USN carrier and SSN forces to attack Chinese carriers (with stealth jets). destroyer/frigates and future Type 075 LHDs (carrying Chinese equivalents of the F-35B). Chinese forces would move to block US and Japanese reinforcement forces from Yokosuka and Guam that were trying to intercept Chinese forces. Chinese and US hypersonic missiles, smart mines and weaponized AUVs would take a major, as yet unaccessible, role. 

It will be interesting to see if Aso's hard-line tone against China, voiced on July 5th, is later persistently or at least sporadically repeated by Japanese politicians, admirals and generals.

Hunter class frigate delay: Covid one reason: As predicted.

 On April 7, 2020 I wrote:

"Due to announced future spending of more A$200 Billion on COVID-19 the Australian Government will eventually announce severe payment delays in big ticket naval defence projects....including the...9 x Hunter class future frigates to cost more than A$35 Billion for the RAN...Major contractors, including...BAE Systems (Hunter class), will find their projects may be delayed 2 to 5 years."

On July 6, 2021 Andrew Tillett, for the Australian Financial Review (AFR), reported:

"The start of construction of the navy’s $44 billion new fleet of [Hunter-class]  frigates is poised to be pushed back for up to 18 months after the Morrison government agreed to delay the project because of issues with the design.

Work building the first frigate may not start in Adelaide until 2024 [instead of "2022 as planned"]

...Defence Department officials had foreshadowed at Senate estimates in May [2021] that the project was facing hurdles because of coronavirus-related disruptions and continuing design issues.

...The first of the nine frigates is meant to be finished by 2029 and in service in 2031."

SEE THE WHOLE AFR ARTICLE

Pete Comment

Delays over the Hunter class project may not necessarily be a bad thing. Originally they were to be commissioned from 2027. This would have been premature for many of the preceding Anzac class frigates which would have served less than 30 years. 

But first Hunter in service in 2031 (or more likely later) will mean many of the Anzacs will exceed their 30 year Use By dates.
--------------------------------------------

Whether Covid causes a delay in the Attack class submarine program remains to be seen. But I suspect yes, it would have. This is especially as Covid has struck France more severely than Australia.

I'm assuming Covid has caused some delay in the Attack class design work taking place at Naval Group's complex at Cherbourg. See: "Cherbourg-en-Cotentin: The Naval Group Cherbourg site specialises in the design, construction, assembly, testing, dismantling and deconstruction of submarines."