Submarine Hypersonic Missile Idea Gains Traction

Andrew Greene, Defence Correspondent for Australia’s ABC News has written the excellent article below. It includes a major section on Hypersonic missiles for future Australian SSNs.

PETE COMMENT

I have written extensively about hypersonic missiles for the last 13 years https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search?q=hypersonic in connection with future Australian Virginia SSNs.

See my “Comments” here https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2008/10/hypersonic-missile-research-and.html

Preferably Australia's future hypersonic missiles should be nuclear tipped when the threat from China warrants it - say in the 2040s.

See my discussion of Australian Virginia or UK-AUKUS SSHNs (H for Hypersonic missiles) instead of the terms SSGNs or SSNs for Australia. See my articles https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2023/07/sshns-or-xluuvs-are-australias.html and https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/05/australias-nuclear-weapon-sshns-2030s.html .

Our Hypersonic missile warheads might need to be developed by Australia or preferably sourced from the US under yet another US-Ally nuclear sharing agreement. 

The US shares nuclear weapons with five NATO countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands not to mention dangerously with NATO country  Turkey https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing. This is separate from the 1958  US-UK  nuclear weapon sharing arrangement.

ARTICLE

By defence correspondent Andrew Greene wrote at Australia’s ABC News on January 17, 2025 and at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-17/us-congressional-analysis-blunt-on-aukus-difficulties/104826856

"Congressional analysis lays bare AUKUS challenges as Australia looks to arm future submarines with hypersonics"

• Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead (left) insists [on the political mantra
   not shared by submarine professionals in the USN and RAN that]
   “strong and tangible” progress is being made on AUKUS [Virginia acquisition]. 
  ([Photo Supplied by]: Department of Defence)
  
  In short:
  
  Details of the problems being faced by US shipyards to speed up submarine
   production for AUKUS have been detailed in a new report to Congress.
  
  [see [US] Congressional Budget Office January 2025 [Report] 
  An Analysis of the Navy’s 2025 Shipbuilding Plan

   https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61155#_idTextAnchor054 
  -> Plans for Specific Ship Programs -> Submarines.]

  Budgetary analysis warns delays on new Columbia-class ballistic missile
   submarines could hamper transfer of Virginia-class boats for Australia
  
  What's next?

Senior military figures insist "strong and tangible" progress being made on AUKUS and future Australian submarines are "highly likely" to carry hypersonic missiles. 

New budgetary analysis for the US Congress has outlined the difficulties America's shipyards face to increase nuclear-powered submarine production so that Virginia-class boats can eventually be sold to Australia under the $368 billion AUKUS program.

The blunt assessment of US industrial challenges has been published as senior military figures express confidence that the ambitious AUKUS endeavour will succeed and predict future Australian submarines are “highly likely” to carry hypersonic missiles.

Under the AUKUS plan Australia is expecting to receive at least three second-hand Virginia-class boats from the US beginning in the early 2030s, before eventually building a new class of boat with the United Kingdom known as SSN-AUKUS.

Trump administration will back AUKUS submarines deal, says Rubio

Photo shows Two men with their arms around each other

Donald Trump's pick for secretary of state appears to have ended months of speculation on whether the incoming administration would back the AUKUS submarine deal, saying it will have Trump's strong support.

Before Australia receives its first Virginia-class boat in 2032, the US government must increase its current annual SSN production rate from roughly 1.2 boats to 2.3, so that it can maintain its overall submarine force numbers while transferring others.

However, in its latest analysis, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) details how the US Navy's "priority" program to build new larger Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) is behind schedule and could further delay Virginia-class (SSN) production.

"It would be very difficult and expensive for the U.S submarine industry to increase production of attack submarines while also building 1 Columbia class ship per year," the CBO document published in January states.

"Columbia class SSBNs are two and one-half times the size of Virginia class SSNs, and the amount of work required to produce ships scales roughly with ship size."

"Moreover, SSBNs are the Navy's highest acquisition priority. As a result, the sale of SSNs to Australia could reduce the number of attack submarines available to the Navy."

The CBO report titled An Analysis of the Navy’s 2025 Shipbuilding Plan'also discusses the potential strategic advantages and disadvantages to the US for giving up some of its submarine capability to its alliance partner Australia under AUKUS.

"That loss might even be more than offset because the Australian submarines would be based in the Western Pacific region and therefor could respond more quickly to any conflict with China over Taiwan or other issues in the South China Sea.

"However, Australia would control its own submarines, and their participation in any particular conflict would not be guaranteed," the report warns, citing comments made by Defence Minister Richard Marles in 2023.

AUKUS unravelling: Greens

Greens Senator and outspoken AUKUS critic David Shoebridge described the report as "damning", claiming it is further proof that Australia's nuclear-submarine endeavour is unravelling.

"This congressional budget office report states a hard truth, that any submarines the US sells Australia under AUKUS must come from a seriously limited supply needed by the US Navy.

"Despite the billions invested, including from Australia, the US shipbuilding industry is nowhere near producing enough nuclear submarines for their needs with no credible way to fix that.

"In fact, the US submarine shipbuilding troubles will only grow in the next decade as it has to produce a whole new class of extra large Columbia class nuclear missile submarines as its first priority."

Hypersonic missiles 'highly likely'

Ahead of the publication of the CBO analysis in Washington, the head of the Australian Submarine Agency (ASA), Vice-Admiral Jonathan Mead, said he was confident the AUKUS nuclear submarine endeavour was progressing well.

"There is a lot of work that happens behind the scenes, some of it is sensitive work but we are making strong and tangible progress in delivering this capability," Vice-Admiral Mead said.

Speaking to ABC Radio National’s Global Roaming podcast late last year, the ASA director said it was "highly likely" that the new SSN-AUKUS submarines being designed with the UK would have the capability to launch hypersonic missiles.

"I think it gives you greater capability, many countries are embarking upon hypersonic missiles, there's a lot of work being done around the world on hypersonic technology.

"Hypersonic missiles are really just a variation of some current class of missiles except that they have far greater speed and manoeuvrability and are harder to intercept."

Late last year the ABC revealed former defence secretary Dennis Richardson had been asked by Mr Marles to examine the operations of the ASA amid concerns raised from within and outside the organisation."

Petty Officer Mark's Conspicuous Service

RAN Submarine Petty Officer Mark has been awarded a Conspicuous Service Medal in the Australia Day (January 26, 2025) honours for his rescue of a fellow submariner.

CPL 3 Michael Rogers’ article which appeared on the Australian Submarine Agency's website reports, January 31, 2025, at https://www.asa.gov.au/news/fear-sharks-shelved-line-duty:

“Fear of sharks shelved in the line of duty” 

Petty Officer Mark has been awarded a Conspicuous Service Medal in the Australia Day honours for his rescue of a fellow submariner. Photo Courtesy: Able Seaman Zac Dingle.
---

Submariners rarely have to deal with a man overboard, but one sailor’s action during the nightmare scenario was recognised as part of the 2025 Australia Day Honours.

HMAS Farncomb was transiting submerged to Hawaii for Exercise Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2022 when it started to experience a noise interfering with the sonar.

They surfaced “pretty much smack bang in the middle of Australia and Hawaii” so Petty Officer Mark, an acoustic warfare analyst, and his team could investigate the noise.

After checking the hull’s forward section for anything unexpected, Petty Officer Mark was inspecting aft of the fin when he felt the boat lift beneath his feet.

He looked starboard and noticed a large wave barrelling towards the sub.

Knowing he wouldn’t make it to safety in time, he shouted a warning to his team on the forward hull, took shelter on the port side of the fin, and braced as the wave washed over the bow.

When he looked forward he saw one of his sonar analysts thrown backwards and washed overboard, weighed down by a bag of tools.

Unable to tell if his shipmate’s life jacket had inflated or if he was injured, Petty Officer Mark leapt into the ocean after him.

He swam to his shipmate to ensure he wasn’t hurt and steered him away from the submarine’s propeller.

They waited about 30 minutes for Farncomb to manoeuvre and pick them up.

During the wait, Petty Officer Mark remembered why he hadn’t participated in a swim exercise during 17 years in Navy – a fear of sharks.

“It didn’t even cross my mind. I remember the water coming towards me when I dived in and thinking ‘all safety is lost’, because I knew we would be alone and isolated,” Petty Officer Mark said.

“It wasn't until I started swimming with Adrian in between my legs and items from the tool bag started popping up around me that it was like, oh, there could be some hungry fish here.”

Petty Officer Mark reached in his pocket to check his knife was still there.

“It was tiny and not going to do anything, but [the shark] was going to earn [the kill],” he said.

After being hauled back on board and making sure his mate was in good spirits, Petty Officer Mark made his way down the conning tower to the “days since last incident” count in the seniors’ mess.

“I walked in, still fully dressed and soaked from head to toe, and wiped the number off the board and put a big fat 0,” he said.

“At the time my adrenaline was pumping but I just wanted to show people that, yeah, everyone's okay and everything is fine.”

'When the letter came through with the gold crown of the Governor-General letterhead I thought I was in trouble for something.'

Petty Officer Mark was recognised during the 2025 Australia Day Honours for his outstanding leadership and courage, awarded a Conspicuous Service Medal for his actions.

“It was a bit of a shock, actually. When the letter came through with the gold crown of the Governor-General letterhead I thought I was in trouble for something,” he said.

“I haven’t known too many sailors that have been recognised like this. So it’s a pleasant surprise but it hasn’t really set in yet.”

Born and bred in Hobart, Petty Officer Mark joined the Navy as a boatswain's mate after seeing a 60 Minutes story on boarding operations in the Gulf, and after five years he wanted more of a challenge.

“As a submariner, the coolest thing you can do is track other submarines, so that’s what led me down the sonar system path,” he said.

“Before [Navy] I used to work at Woolworths, so it's a long way from pushing trolleys in the carpark.”

Looking back, Petty Officer Mark doesn’t think he would have done anything differently during the daring dive, no matter who was swept overboard.

“It wouldn't matter what rank or role I was in or what person it was that went, I think the reaction's the same,” he said.

“I’m still scared of sharks, though, and I probably still won’t participate in any swim exercises.”

Original story by CPL 3 Michael Rogers.

++++++++++++

Pete Comment

Another biological threat to submariners are polar and brown bears, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. 

The russian Navy is known to shoot them and their cubs.

No French SSNs for Australia Possible: Part Two.

France has never promised to export already developed SSNs (Suffren-class or otherwise) to Australia. The suggestion of retired submarine specialist and a past president of the Submarine Institute of Australia, Peter Briggs, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/aukus-risks-are-piling-up-australia-must-prepare-to-build-french-ssns-instead/ cannot be met due to France's "no SSN export policy" and industrial limitations (see Part One of February 4, 2025). 

A. When, in 2016, Australia was seeking a "regionally superior submarine" which would have needed many characteristics of an SSN, DCNS (now Naval Group's) Chief Executive Herve Guillou ambiguously told AAP on March 24, 2016:

"“If, in 2050, Australia wants a nuclear submarine, they [France? or Australia with French assistance?] can design a nuclear submarine”  see https://web.archive.org/web/20160403082949/http://indaily.com.au/news/2016/03/24/france-pitches-nuke-sub-option-for-australia/ In 2016 and to this day French government owned Naval Group (NG) made no offer to export an SSN to Australia.

It may be no coincidence that France's completion year for its fourth and final 3rd generation SSBN is 2050. France's single nuclear sub assembly might then be available for new business which would include the SSN successor class to the Suffrens. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G#Design_and_operation

Naval Group's ambiguous offer from 2050 to help design an SSN for Australia is later than the UK's offer to joint  design (with the US and Australia) the SSN-AUKUS from the late 2030s and build SSN-AUKUS from the early 2040s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSN-AUKUS . 

B.  Moving from ambiguous Naval Group commercial spin in 2016 - to a higher authority, French President Macron said in 2022, SSNs should not be sold to Australia. 

Macron said the sale of nuclear submarines to Australia “risks increasing tensions with China and make Australia dependent on other countries.” See https://see.news/macron-warns-australias-nuclear-subs-deal-will-not-deliver of 18 November 2022.

C.  Whether nuclear submarines use HEU (like the US and UK) or LEU (like France) France's opposition to exporting SSNs to Australia still holds. This is because of French concern over offending China. 

Another reason is French unwillingness to risk its most sensitive technical secrets.  Here is a 22 July 2022 Australian academic's comment:

 "The French government never has exported, or even permitted formal negotiations to export, the nuclear submarine technology it considers a crown jewel of its military. Exporting nuclear submarines would require a high level of bilateral trust, which Morrison shattered and Albanese would need to rebuild." 

Macron is still France's President and he has not altered France's no nuclear submarine exports to Australia policy. Even if France permitted SSN exports to Australia France's/NG's single nuclear submarine assembly line at Cherbourg can only cater for the French Navy's remaining Suffrens, then its new SSBNs, out to 2050.

No French SSNs for Australia Possible: Part One.

Even if France wanted to part or completely build Suffren SSNs for Australia nuclear labour shortages in France would prevent this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suffren-class_submarine. In any case France opposes supplying SSNs to Australia - the subject of Part Two. 

The same type of labour shortage problem impacting the US nuclear submarine  industry is effecting France's nuclear submarine industry. 

France is suffering a national shortage of skilled workers in its heavy industries. Within this the nuclear submarine sector is experiencing a shortage of skilled workers and probably designers.

The skilled labour shortage contributed to a 5 year delay in the Suffren-class SSN program. Suffren’s (laid down 2007) twice delayed entry into service slipped from late 2017 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suffren-class_submarine#Development to 2022 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suffren-class_submarine#Boats. This is worse than the UK Astute's record (laid down 2001, commissioned 2010 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astute-class_submarine#Boats_in_the_class ). 

Naval Group (NG), Frances only nuclear submarine builder, has only one nuclear submarine assembly line. This is at Cherbourg. This assembly line is fully booked with remaining Suffrens and new SSBN orders, out to 2050. 

So NG's limited nuclear sub construction force needs to complete 3 more Suffrens out to 2029/30 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suffren-class_submarine#Boats. 

The labour shortage will cause delays in France’s future new SSBN program which will make construction of subsequent Suffren SSNs, after 2030, impossible.

France's only submarine builder, NG winning the Netherland’s Walrus replacement project in March 2024 is also significant. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orka-class_submarine#Winning_bid This is for four newly designed diesel-electric submarines. This new project is putting added pressure on the limited NG designer and skilled sub-building  workforce. https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/03/orka-class-specifications-table-dutch.html

The first of France’s four new (ie. 3rd generation) SSBNs (known as SNLE 3G) is expected to join the fleet from 2035. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G. Work began on the first SNLE 3G (no boat name yet) on March 20. 2024 https://www.meretmarine.com/fr/defense/cherbourg-naval-group-decoupe-la-premiere-tole-du-prochain-snle-francais

The final three SNLE 3Gs will be completed at five year intervals in 2040, 2045 and 2050. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNLE_3G#Design_and_operation

NG may then be able to concentrate on new SSN production, from 2050, which is likely to be much later than the UK commissioning the first SSN-AUKUS.

A SIGNIFICANT ARTICLE

See “Europe's Nuclear Revival Lacks a Key Ingredient: Skilled Workers” of July 3, 2024, at https://www.energyconnects.com/news/renewables/2024/july/europe-s-nuclear-revival-lacks-a-key-ingredient-skilled-workers/ :

“…Atomic power producers in France, the UK and Sweden are having trouble finding the hundreds of thousands of welders, engineers and planners needed for reactors they’re building now and ones they’re eyeing for mid-century…

[There is] a labor shortage so dire some French companies hire back retirees…

France finds itself lacking talent after [reactor builder Électricité de France] EDF ended a decades-long building spree in the early 2000s, turning the industry into a dead-end career path. The workforce of about 220,000 is now aging out while potential replacements look elsewhere…

That’s a recipe for lengthy construction delays and massive cost overruns — failings the industry already is notorious for…

In the port of Cherbourg, where French nuclear submarines are built, [large French engineering firm] Probent frequently offers retired welders and metal workers jobs in the shipyard…”

Indonesian Undersea Energy Pipelines: Between its Islands & Singapore

See:

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/indonesia-needs-to-improve-its-seabed-warfare-capability/