Dziedzic for Australia's ABC News reported February 26, 2025
One of the flotilla is the PLA-N Renhai-class cruiser Zunyi (Pennant Number 107) seen here in the Solomon Sea, northeast of Australia. (Photo Courtesy Australian Defence Force via ABC)
Defence officials believe a Chinese [Type 093] nuclear-powered submarine likely accompanied the People's Liberation Army-Navy flotilla during its deployment off Australia's coast.
It comes as commercial airline pilots who flew over the Tasman Sea last week told the ABC they monitored radio communications from the Chinese warships to military surveillance aircraft as far back as a week ago.
What's next?
Defence said it continues to "closely" track the Chinese flotilla, which had re-entered Australia's exclusive economic zone on Tuesday.
He also described its recent live-fire exercises as unprecedented and said they demonstrated "China's growing capability to project military power into our immediate region" was "now matched by an increasing intent to do so".
Appearing before a parliamentary committee on Monday night, the [Australian Office of National Intelligence] ONI boss observed this was "the furthest south a People's Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) task group has operated".
"We judge Beijing intends to normalise this sort of presence, shape the responses of those in the region, and observe and learn from our reactions," he told the Senate estimates hearing.
"The largest and least transparent military build-up since the Second World War will mean the PLA will be able to operate at greater distances from mainland China, in greater numbers, including into Australia's immediate seas and skies," he said.
On Tuesday, Defence confirmed the PLA-N flotilla had re-entered Australia's exclusive economic zone, where it was being closely tracked as it operated around 160 nautical miles east of Hobart.
One military figure, not authorised to speak publicly, told the ABC there was a "working assumption" that a taskforce comprising three warships so far from the Chinese mainland for weeks could have submarine support for at least part of the deployment.
Other navies that boast nuclear-powered submarines, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, are known to regularly use them during lengthy and complex warship missions to gather valuable intelligence on potential adversaries.
Meanwhile, commercial airline pilots who flew over the Tasman Sea last week have told the ABC they monitored radio communications from the Chinese warships to military surveillance aircraft as far back as a week ago, warning about possible live-firing activity.
"The Chinese vessel made a broadcast on 121.5 [VHF frequency] about a live firing drill, telling the NZ aircraft to remain at a safe distance," one international airline pilot told the ABC when describing a flight on Tuesday, February 18.
"The NZ aircraft replied that under international law they can be there, it occurred a couple of times. Many civilian aircraft heard it and told the Chinese to 'go away.'"
This week aviation officials revealed they were first informed that a Chinese live-firing exercise had begun when a Virgin Australia pilot relayed warnings they had picked up mid-flight via an emergency radio frequency."
[Also see "NZ defence minister warns of
'extremely capable' Chinese warships in Tasman Sea" of February 24, 2025 at
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-24/chinese-warship-missiles-in-tasman-sea-nz-minister-warning/104973290
]
10 comments:
In the meantime, China's also building up its submarine force:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25Recun33NI
As Taiwan continues its own submarine program:
https://armyrecognition.com/news/navy-news/2025/flash-news-taiwans-first-indigenous-defense-submarine-hai-kun-class-narwhal-advances-to-next-testing-phase
Thanks Anonymous at 3/01/2025 5:49 AM
Today's youtube "China launched yet another nuclear submarine. 7th in the last 2 years" is very interesting.
Pete
Thanks also Anonymous for that youtube video link. It confirms something I have suggested previously. When you look at the time to construct a Virginia (8 years) and the current delivery schedule it may already be too late for Australia to receive Virginia SSNs in 2032. The build rate needs to be above 2.3 subs/year now, not in 2032, for that to be possible. It isn’t. So we won’t get them.
IMO if the defense budget is not about to be increased (unlikely) Australia needs to refocus its naval shipbuilding program for both ships (Hunters too slow to build) and subs (AUKUS promises implausible).
Hi Anonymous at 3/01/2025 5:58 PM
I mostly agree with you. Although ships and subs are not interchangeable in capabilities. Also any proposal for a conventional subma class will politics over efficiency suffer the 15 years Osborne disease delay.
No Virginias can be built at Osborne.
SSN-AUKUSs need to be fully designed, first built in UK, optimistically by 2040? Then Osborne disease kicks in making for a 2050? launch.
A challenge is to find written evidence of the Youtube's claim time of 8 years to construct a Virginia from 3min55sec into https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25Recun33NI . Looking at dates https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class may be one solution.
Cheers Pete
Looks like the USN is gearing up for a potential fight against all those new
Chinese subs:
"Officials of the Naval Air Systems Command at Patuxent River Naval Air
Station, Md., announced a $107.1 million order in December to Sparton, an
Elbit Systems of America company in De Leon Springs, Fla., for as many as
20,000 AN/SSQ-125 multistatic sonobuoys for airborne ASW operations."
"The AN/SSQ-125 modified high-duty-cycle sonobuoys work together with the
Navy's AN/SSQ series of sonobuoys, which consist of the SSQ-36
bathythermograph (BT); SSQ-53 passive directional low frequency analyze and
record (DIFAR); SSQ-62 directional command active sonobuoy system
(DICASS); SSQ-101 air deployed active receiver (ADAR); SSQ-110 multi-static
non-coherent source; and SSQ-125 multi-static coherent source."
See:
https://www.militaryaerospace.com/sensors/article/55260285/sparton-multistatic-sonobuoys-for-anti-submarine-warfare-asw
Thanks Anonymous at 3/02/2025 5:10 PM
Yes. Now that Russia is a US ally these sonobuoys will no longer be dropped by US aircraft to track Russian submarines.
Cheers Pete
RSN getting 5th and 6th submarine, type not explicitly specified, but probably 218SG of some sort
Thanks retortPouch at 3/03/2025 9:01 PM
Janes, the most authoritative website, confirms what you report. See March 3, 2025 at https://www.janes.com/osint-insights/defence-news/land/singapore-to-procure-two-more-type-218sg-submarines
"Singapore will procure two more Invincible (Type 218SG)-class diesel-electric submarines (SSKs), the country's Minister of Defence Ng Eng Hen disclosed in a parliamentary statement on 3 March.
In addition, Singapore has begun evaluating options for a new type of maritime patrol aircraft (MPA), a next-generation infantry fighting vehicle (IFV), and new munitions for its High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).
Ng disclosed these matters in a parliamentary session known as the Committee of Supply Debate to discuss the country's overall national budget, including its defence expenditure, for the 2025 financial year.
Singapore commissioned its first two Type 218SG SSKs in September 2024. The vessels, RSS Invincible and RSS Impeccable , were part of a programme then to equip the Republic of Singapore Navy (RSN) with a total of four Type 218SG boats.
The SSKs were ordered under two separate contracts signed between German shipbuilder thyssenkrupp Marine Systems (tkMS) and Singapore's Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) in 2013 and 2017 respectively.
In his address, Ng disclosed that Invincible and Impeccable have begun operations in waters around Singapore and are functioning well in the tropical climate.
“But four submarines are not optimal for a fleet. Submarines are subjected to more rigorous and frequent maintenance cycles [and] stringent checks because they need to operate under intense pressure, literally,” Ng said.
“So sometimes operational time is reduced relatively, and this is why most navies that operate submarines have more than four.”
Ng highlighted Australia, Indonesia, and Vietnam as examples of countries in the region that operate more than four submarines."
Quote:
"most navies that operate submarines have more than four."
The Philippines is going to need more than 2-3 Submarines then:
"“We do not only [need] one submarine, we need two or three,”
“The Horizon 3 was approved, we gave our list [but] we don’t
know which of our requests was approved,”
Commodore Roy Vincent Trinidad"
Source:
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/02/philippines-confirm-that-it-will-acquire-submarines/
Yes, the traditional purchase of naval ships in batches of three take into account the “one deployed, one in training, one in maintenance and refit” cycle, though this assumes deployments are three to six months long, like in the US Navy.
Singapore has twenty years of experience operating four submarines, so it knows what it takes to operate two boats simultaneously, six boats would mean the Singapore Navy could send two on operational deployment, while another two are in their training cycle in local waters, and can be surged in an emergency.
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