3rd Priority AUKUS Virginias for Australia: Columbias Top Priority: Ford Carriers 2nd Priority

In Australia many Australian civilian and naval interests are relying on AUKUS Pillar 1 submarine program keeping to the US deliver a Second-Hand Virginia to Australia by 2032 schedule.

However, it is more likely the first Virginia for Australia will be in 2046 due to the calculations below on the delayed, higher priority, Columbia-class SSBN program which shares supply chains, shipyards and work forces with the third priority Virginia program.

The production of 1.1 “standard” Virginias per year is likely to reduce to 0.8 Block Vs per year (ie. one every 15 months) starting with the Block V USS Oklahoma's expected commissioning in 2030-31 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class .

There is also competition from the second priority, delayed - Ford-class carrier construction program at HII's submarine/shipyard complex in thee state of Virginia. 

The measuring stick of "deliveries" of Columbias doesn't mean actual commissioning of Columbias. First of class (Columbia) may experience 3 years of pre-commissioning tests (and bug fixing) after delivery to the USN.

In early 2025 USN Rear Adm. Todd Weeks, Program Executive Officer for Strategic Submarines advised the 12 Columbia class delivery or commissioning(?) is to be:

USS Columbia (SSBN-826) in 2029

USS Wisconsin (SSBN-827) in 2032

USS Groton (SSBN-828) in 2034

From USS Grotton Columbia-class delivery will optimistically be one SSBN per year, hence SSBN-829 in 2035.

The one SSBN per year drumbeat will mean less than one standard Virginia delivered per year. So then to the rest of the Columbias:

SSBN-830   2036

SSBN-831   2037

SSBN-832   2038

SSBN-833   2039

SSBN-834   2040

SSBN-835   2041

SSBN-836   2042

SSBN-837   2043

It is only after the top priority Columbias are completed that (from 2044) a few years of 2 to 3 Virginias constructed per year may permit one used Virginia to Australia in 2046.

More details: “Navy Columbia (SSBN-826) Class Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress: Updated September 25, 2025 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov CRN R41129 https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/26173199-columbiaprogramcrs/ “

So the first Virginia Australia is likely to receive is one Very second-hand one in 2046. 

The UK’s SSN-AUKUS development schedule is likely even more delayed given the UKs chronic problems with the PWR2 reactor and piping corrosion and how to avoid this in a miniaturised PWR3 for SSN-AUKUS. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolls-Royce_PWR#PWR2

Canada's Future Subs: VLS Irrelevant? Last 6 Nuclear?: Part One

With its trouble prone Victoria-class submarines expected to retire in the mid to late 2030s Canada is seeking from 8 to 12 new (foreign?) build replacements quite quickly to patrol Canada's 3 oceans (Pacific, Arctic and Atlantic). For this Canada appears prepared to eventually pay up to 60 billion Canadian dollars (about US$43.5 Billion). 

Set out below note the following 15 draft high-level mandatory requirements "Patrol Submarine Project – Request for Information | Solicitation ID W8481-23PPS | RFI – Annex A – Draft HLMRs (Report). Government of Canada. June 12 2023, ^[5] recorded here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_Patrol_Submarine#Background :

• "The platform shall be a submarine that can perform patrol and surveillance missions in Canada’s maritime approaches and littoral waters.
• The platform shall be conventionally powered (diesel-electric).
• The platform shall have an operational range of at least 7,000 nautical miles (13,000 km; 8,100 mi) on diesel fuel at 8 knots.
• The platform shall be able to transit at least 3,000 nautical miles (5,600 km; 3,500 mi) submerged on batteries/AIP before snorting.
• The platform shall be able to operate in first-year Arctic ice (up to 1 m thick) and survive in polar-class cold-weather conditions.
• The platform shall have a low acoustic signature consistent with modern SSK design standards (radiated noise ≤ 110 dB/1 µPa/√Hz re 1 Hz at 1 kHz).
• The platform shall be fitted with a bow sonar array, flank arrays, and a towed array sonar.
• The platform shall have at least six 533 mm torpedo tubes and be able to store and launch torpedoes, missiles, mines and UUVs. [Note no requirement for VLS]
• The platform shall provide secure VLF/HF/UHF and SATCOM communications with Canadian and allied networks.
• The platform shall be fully interoperable with NATO and Five-Eyes submarine rescue and C4ISR standards.
• The platform shall meet survivability criteria for shock, fire, flooding and chemical-biological-radiological threats.
• The platform shall accommodate a mixed-gender crew of at least 60 personnel for deployments up to 60 days without resupply.
• The platform shall be designed for through-life support in Canada, including training simulators and Canadian-sourced spare parts.
• The platform shall deliver minimum 25 % Canadian content by value over the total programme life.
• The platform shall be certified to Transport Canada/RMRS safety rules and be upgradeable through at least two mid-life modernisations."

Pete Comment/Background

On August 26, 2025 Canada shortlisted Germany's TKMS Type 212CD (Common Design) and South Korea's Hanwha Ocean's KSS-III to develop paper designs by 2028 that are variants of operating subs for what is called the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP).

Notwithstanding KSS-IIIs for the South Korean Navy featuring vertical launch systems (VLS) there appears no VLS (in the above requirements) for Canada's future submarines. In fact Canada's Victoria-class do not carry Harpoon missiles (see right sidebar) let alone Tomahawks. South Korea offered India a "DSME-3000" KSS-III variant without VLS.

So the KSS-III's proven VLS capability may be no advantage in the Canadian competition. Canada may perhaps buy 6 non-VLS KSS-IIIs initially. This may be  followed eventually by 6 South Korean built nuclear powered submarines, excellent for under-ice work, bears consideration. The cost of nuclear powered submarines and quicker build factor may not be prohibitive (for Canadian and Australian customers) if South Korea builds them. Australia might also get around the looming 20-25 years non-delivery of AUKUS SSNs crisis.

New Submarines and more! November 2025 roundup

Pete has already written about the Polish A26 selection, and here's my 2 sens (Malaysian sens - worth about 0.7 Australian cents).

I've commented on the A26 programme over the years, but its issues basically come down to the Swedish concept of neutrality, which ended when it joined NATO in March 2024. The A26s for Poland will have newly developed horizontal multi-mission portals and vertical launch systems. 

With the cost of military research and development increasing in the last three decades, Sweden found it difficult to fund its replacement programs, and therefore tried to partner 'unaligned' nations to help fund arms development. While Brazil emerged as a major buyer and contributor to the SAAB Gripen E fighter program, no such nation emerged for the A26 submarine program.

I'm certain the Swedish government of the day expected one of Kockums' biggest export customers, Singapore (which at this point had bought seven used submarines and two new minesweepers), would emerge as an export customer for the A26, but TKMS's ownership of Kockums prevented this, and in November 2013 TKMS won the tender for the Type 218SGs to Singapore (which has matured to a six boat program) It was only in June 2015 that Sweden began its struggle to build the first two A26s alone, with no economies of scale or cash injection that would have been provided by a foreign order. 

Poland's selection of the A26 is a move of significant political implications, no less so as this was first announced by the Swedes. This implies that Sweden places a great deal of importance on this government-to-government deal, as this is Sweden's first major defence deal as a NATO member, and will deepen defence cooperation with the Poles. It is not a joke to call the A26 a submarine built for the Baltic, and I expect a massive investment in Polish naval shipbuilding. This will also benefit Sweden, which does not have a domestic military shipyard capable of handling warships larger than 2,000 tonnes.

Sweden’s Lulea-class frigate program is expected to select a design in 2026. While the Naval Group Defense and Intervention Frigate (FDI) has had a lot of recent press, a tie-in with Poland could include Polish shipyards building additional Type 31 frigates for Sweden. We may see a ‘Baltic Naval Force’ in 2030 with Polish sailors training in Swedish submarines, and Swedish sailors on Polish frigates. 

This was not the only submarine-related news in November 2025, so here's a brief round-up.

Turkish Reis-class. Second of Six Type-214TN boats launched

Image: Navalnews.com
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TKMS has announced the delivery of the second Reis-class (Types-214TN) boat, the TCG Hizirreis (S331), for the Turkish Navy.

The Type-214TN is the Turkish version of the popular Type-214 export AIP design, which is in service with the Greek, Portuguese and South Korean navies. Turkey ordered six boats in 2009, all built at the Gölcük Naval Shipyards, and production seems to be on track, with a boat delivered every two years.

Brazilian Riachuelo-class. Fourth boat launched.

image: Naval Group
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Speaking of popular submarine export designs, Brazil has launched the fourth and last boat in the Riachuelo-class, an enlarged derivative of the DCNS Scorpene.

This should indicate that Brazil is now entering the last phase of its PROSUB program - the start of production on the SN-10 Álvaro Alberto nuclear submarine, which has an expected delivery date of 2034.

Spanish S-80-class. Second boat now afloat after October launch.

Image: Navantia
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Following on from its ceremonial launch in October 2025, Spain's S-82 Narciso Monturiol has been floated out of a floating dock in preparation for its harbour trials. The second of four S-80 Issac Peral-class boats, the S-82 Narciso Monturiol was built without an AIP module. This is because Navantia's BEST bioethanol AIP system was developed too late to be installed in the first two boats. They will receive the AIP module in a later upgrade.

While two working S-80 boats will improve Navantia's export sales chances, with the first boat visiting Egypt in early November, the current lack of an operating AIP system was a major factor that led to the Indian rejection of the design.

Poland Selects Saab A26 Submarines: Inter-NATO issue Uppermost?

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/11/sweden-and-saab-selected-for-polands-new-submarines/

So the South Korean Hanwha Ocean favourite didn't win after all - putting Hanwha Ocean under pressure to sell to Canada and the Philippines. 

Poland may have been mindful that buying from fellow NATO member, Sweden,  strengthens the NATO alliance - something unachievable if Poland bought a (non-NATO) South Korean sub.

My next thought was that this inter-NATO aspect might boost NATO-Germany (TKMS's) chances of beating non-NATO-South Korea in the future subs to NATO-Canada competition. The Korea Times raises this very issue, in an article of November 28, 2025, here https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/business/companies/20251128/can-korean-shipbuilders-end-disappointing-streak-with-bid-for-canadian-subs .

US/Lockheed's Own Poseidon Nuclear Deterrent?

Boeing's Orca above possibly 16m standard length (Photo courtesy US Navy) and below showing around a 2m beam (Photo courtesy MilitaryLeak(dot)com).

As with nuclear armed US SLBMs since the 1960s the promise of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) ie. a nuclear deterrent, may be the best defence against Russia's Poseidon nuclear armed, nuclear powered torpedos/AUVs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Status-6_Oceanic_Multipurpose_System

If Russia even hinted that it might use Poseidons against the US, the US could promise it would launch US Poseidons and other nuclear weapons against Russia. 

When the US put out tenders for the Orca very large UUV/AUV, Boeing publicly won the competition https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orca_(AUV). But significantly there was no word or complaint, I know of, from the other competitor, Lockheed Martin (LM), about losing. I suspect LM was asked to develop "black program" US nuclear armed, nuclear propelled Poseidon-like weapons as a response to Russia and also  for potential use against China, North Korea and any other hostile nuclear powers. 

The US quietly telling Russia "we also have a Poseidon we could use against you" constitutes the age-old and effective MAD strategy. Boeing may also be in the know about this LM project because LM could use Boeing's Orca "hull" conveniently  larger (up to 26m long = 16m standard + 10m payload module) than Russia's 20m Poseidon (see right sidebar).

Here and above is a 6 minute Wall Street Journal (WSJ) mini-documentary on what Russia's Poseidon is and what it may do.

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US and China Leading The Large Carrier Arms Race

Through much original scientific and engineering research, espionage and reverse engineering China has rapidly developed electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS), aka aircraft carrier electromagnetic catapults. China probably tested its EMALS with a pilot at sea in mid 2025 on its latest aircraft carrier Fujian, of the Type 003 class commissioned November 5, 2025.  Fujian's EMALS are inspired by the first pilot at sea use on the USN's latest supercarrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) on July 28, 2017. The US is probably building 10 more Fords to replace its 10 Nimitz-class carriers on a one-for-one basis.

In building the Type 003 class China has leaped from limited war-load ski-jump carriers of the Type 001 and 002 classes and avoided obsolete steam catapult technology altogether. 

I don't know whether China will build more Type 003s or proceed straight to nuclear powered Type 004s. At the rapid rate China is advancing in carrier technology I wouldn't be surprised if China builds 7 x Type 004s. Seven Chinese nuclear  carriers in the Indo-Pacific might give China something approaching parity with the USN. This is given the USN's eleven carriers must cover much more ocean - that being the Atlantic-Arctic as well.

Meanwhile the UK has taken a step back from its two full size steam CATOBAR Audacious-class aircraft carriers of the 1950-70s in building two full size ski-jump carriers of the Queen Elizabeth (QE) class. The QEs are limited to F-35Bs of limited range, limited war-load with no scope for manned fixed wing anti-submarine aircraft and no E-2 Hawkeye style AEW aircraft. 

India, currently having ski-jump carriers seems to have settled on a future EMALS CATOBAR carrier to be called INS Vishal. Vishal may be conventionally of nuclear powered and probably commissioned at least 15 years from now, in the 2040s.

France may retire its nuclear powered carrier Charles de Gaulle (CdG) in 2038, but probably later. France aims to replace CdG with a new nuclear carrier Porte-avions de nouvelle génération (PANG) in English "new generation aircraft carrier" after only 7 years of construction (2031-2038). But I think the timings are overly ambitious, given France has 4 x 3rd generation SSBNs (SNLE 3G) to be completed by 2050. France also needs to meet the increased Russian conventional and nuclear armed forces threat. 

After Russia's experience with the troubled carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and earlier carrier-cruisers Russia should be encouraged to build several more. This may spare two or three blameless European countries from Putin's love of invasion.

Here and above is "Deep Intel on New Chinese Carrier's First Flight Ops" uploaded September 25, 2025 and expertly narrated by former US Navy F-14 Radar Intercept Officer Ward Carroll on his Youtube Channel. Ward provided the description below:  

"A video just released by the Chinese government documents that the People’s Liberation Army Navy recently had a significant operational milestone. During an at sea period off the coast of Shanghai, the PLAN aircraft carrier Fujian, which was launched three years ago, already completed its first successful flight operations that included using the J-35, China's fifth generation fighter, and the electromagnetic catapult system better known by the acronym “EMALS.”"