Reports to Donors

Dear Donors

I haven't forgotten about reports to you. I plan to write 2 per month for the next 3 months, starting May, to get back on track.

Cheers Pete

China Anon's 1st Message to Submarine Matters

On Apr 29, 2022, 3:26:00 AM Chinese/PRC Anonymous said: 

"Anonymous said...

Chinese here. 

I was always baffled by Australia's paranoia about our country. You are thousands of kilometers away from us and there are no geopolitical disputes between our countries. You were concerned about increasing Chinese military power and its possible influence in your region. It was an unfounded fear in my opinion. But you made it a reality yourselves. China can not watch a middle power spending a disproportionate amount of money on its military and putting most of that into American made force projection assets to be a good ancillary to the US forces in a possible war against it.

I think you guys should stop thinking about force projection and just be a peaceful country like Ireland or New Zealand. You'd spend less money and you wouldn't lose people in American "police action"s for nothing. 

Apr 29, 2022, 3:26:00 AM"

Pete Comment

The Anonymous comment, voicing arguments I've never read before, may be authentic.

If authentic I feel privileged that a military and economic superpower, like China, finds the time to comment on my wee blog.

Interesting is the suggestion that: 

"I think you guys should stop thinking about force projection and just be a peaceful country like Ireland or New Zealand. You'd spend less money and you wouldn't lose people in American "police action"s for nothing." 

This is the type of suggestion Soviet Russia successfully made to Finland in the 1940s and "Putinic" (you saw first use here) Russia made more recently and unsuccessfully to Ukraine.

Ireland, because of its geographical position, is protected at a higher strategic level by the UK and NATO. Meanwhile New Zealand enjoys some protection by Australia and the US. Australia enjoys nuclear umbrella coverage and conventional weapon support from the US with more sporadic support from the UK, France and to an extent, India.  

China is suggesting that Australia reorganise its foreign and defence policies and minimise Australia's defence spending. This Finlandization would favour China's aims for increased and unopposed strategic influence in Australia's region. Also Australia would need to rip up some long standing agreements, including those governing Pine Gap, ANZUS and, of course, AUKUS.

While I disagree with the arguments of "Chinese/PRC Anonymous" I look forward to more comments from him/her.

Keiger: Why AUKUS is Froggy Free.

Gloire Macron non ! (Cartoon courtesy India's ThePrint.)
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On September 18, 2021, John Keiger, former Professor of French History at the University 
of Cambridge, wrote the following essay for the UK SPECTATOR:

"The real reason France was excluded from Aukus

The fallout from Australia’s cancellation of its submarine contract with France and the new trilateral Indo-Pacific security pact between Australia, the US and the UK continues. France has recalled its ambassadors from Canberra and Washington (though significantly not from London) for ‘immediate consultations’; the well-worn diplomatic gesture of discontent. This is the first occasion ever in over two centuries of Franco-American friendship.

Last night in another outburst of petulance, the French embassy in Washington cancelled the gala to celebrate Franco-American friendship. The festivities were to mark the 240th anniversary of the crucial Battle of the Capes when the French navy defeated its British counterpart in defence of American independence.

Compared to the present it is a poignant historical example of how, to paraphrase Lord Palmerston, diplomatic and military alliances are never permanent, only interests. France, after all abandoned its western allies in 1966 when it withdrew at short notice from Nato’s integrated military command. Today at the core of all this turmoil is the rising power of China. It is a historical truism that rising powers force diplomatic and military realignments.

History is replete with examples of states that underestimated the capacity of the international system to coalesce or realign rapidly in the face of rising and threatening powers. Prussian victory over the French in 1871 created a powerful Germany, whose rise and rise inevitably caused the international system to adjust by diplomatic and military realignments.

Sometimes this occurred slowly (the 1892 Franco-Russian alliance and the 1904 Entente Cordiale) sometimes brutally (the 1939 Nazi Soviet pact and the June 1941 Anglo-Soviet agreement). Then expediency trumped ideology. Now it trumps friendship. This time France is the loser. The historically attuned Macron of all people should now put this snap diplomatic embarrassment behind him and work constructively with Aukus. But the new architecture of the Indo-Pacific will not be easy to negotiate.

What the three Anglosphere states in the Aukus pact have put together is a loose, flexible and nimble arrangement for managing Indo-Pacific security directly. This is something that is second nature to states of a culture that General de Gaulle always referred to as ‘Anglo-Saxon’. It is just the kind of arrangement that is anathema to the formal, rational and legalistic method of the French and their cultural offshoot the EU, whose modus operandi was best demonstrated by the glacial formalism applied to the Brexit negotiations.

This clash of cultures – or cultures at cross purposes – was demonstrated prior to the First World War, when following the 1904 informal Entente Cordiale France was desperate for a formal binding written commitment from London to side with her in the event of a German attack. Britain would only agree to wait and see. This was a problem France also experienced in the interwar years. Then to cap it all, Aukus is a club within another very exclusive culturally defined Anglosphere club that has existed since the Second World War and that has never had France as a member, the ‘Five Eyes’ (with New Zealand and Canada).

Aukus members probably wanted France in the pact. Diplomatically and militarily she has much to offer in terms of naval projection, nuclear submarines and weapons, intelligence and physical presence by dint of her overseas territories in the south Pacific. But wishing to react rapidly, they were probably anxious about her cultural proclivity to define every term, role and eventuality. The crucial problem for France is that by her own admission the Australian deal wasn’t merely about submarines. It was the keystone in a regional security edifice carefully pieced together that will now have to be remodelled completely, were that possible. This is the source of their disappointment and public outrage.

The second problem for Paris is that Aukus is not just a coalition of three. It will be the nexus of a much broader web drawing in other informal regional groupings with varied objectives from security to trade, such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, of US, Japan, India and Australia, or the 12 nation Trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement which includes the US (albeit withdrawn under Trump), Australia, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, New Zealand and a pending UK membership.

France could now find herself outside these concentric circles. Her only full access would be by belated invitation to the sanctum sanctorum of Aukus. But as a late joiner she might be required to be amenable on other matters, for instance smoothing the way for an adjustment of the Northern Ireland Protocol (see my recent Coffee House piece). Heaven forfend that French membership – other than generating the unfortunate acronym of Faukus – be viewed as the EU’s Trojan Horse similar to General de Gaulle viewing Britain as America’s Trojan Horse on London’s application to join the Common Market.

What Macron does next is therefore key. With the presidential election campaign unofficially underway and France about to take up the presidency of the EU council for six months, he is certain to make grandiloquent statements about France and Europe’s only salvation lying in European ‘strategic autonomy’ from the US and Nato. But Macron knows in his heart of hearts, like his French predecessors, that this has been on the cards since the French inspired – and French scuppered – European Defence Community of 1954 and that it will go nowhere during his mandate.

What's more, an EU defence and security role in the Indo-Pacific will go no further than gesture politics, as only France has the capability to deploy in the area. Macron will have to swallow his pride and go with Aukus. The fact that the French Ambassador in London was not recalled suggests that he knows how to go about that.”

Pete Comment

Macron’s proclivity
To spit the dummy 
Is finicky stupidity.

ANZAC Day Songs and Symbols 2022

Australia and New Zealand commemorates ANZAC Day on April 25th each year. It is our secular "holiest" day. The day commemorates the sacrifice of troops of the combined Australian and New Zealand Army Corps (ANZAC) in World War One and of Australians and New Zealanders who fought in all later wars. 

The following are songs and photos I've put together to remember them.

Anzacs (or 'diggers') at Gallipoli in a rare quiet moment in 1915. Pete's Grandfather was there, at the field Hospital, which was constantly shelled by the Turks, because the Turks knew ammunition was actually being stored in some of those tents... Much safer for the wounded to be taken to nearby ships and then to nearby islands, like Lemnos.
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My Grandfather, Staff Sergeant G. Leo A Coates, working at the 1st Australian Stationary Hospital, Mudros, Lemnos. 1915. He's doing an X-ray of a bullet in the soldier's leg. My grandfather copped a lot of X-rays (decades later died of cancer) as there was no lead operator shielding, only a canvas curtain. My grandfather then shifted to Gallipoli later in 1915.(Donor Royal Australasian College of Surgeons - Photo courtesy AWM Archive Store).

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This great song And the Band Played Waltzing Matilda by Eric Bogle is about the life of a digger wounded at Gallipoli.

There is a myth that true Anzacs were and are all front line infantry. Some other occupations were more dangerous than infantry. Pilots and aircrew often suffered the highest casualties of any service. Sailors, in particular submariners, were often in the greatest danger both from the enemy and also from accidents. Here is the Navy Hymn for Submariners.

Here and above the hymn Abide With Me is traditionally sung at ANZAC Day services. The singer is Hayley Westernra from Christchurch, New Zealand.
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Iconic Vietnam War photo by Michael Coleridge. Diggers of 5 Platoon, B Company, 7RAR, waiting for Iroquois helicopters to land and return them back Nui Dat at the end of an operation.

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 The song I Was Only 19 (by that under-appreciated Australian group Redgum) is in memory of Australians who fought, died and were injured in Vietnam (early 1960s to 1972).

Here and above. I think Eric Bogle’s The Green Fields of France (also known as "No Man's Land" and "Willie McBride)  (above) is the best anti-war song ever written. As a haunting poem, march, song of love and injustice it is a fitting anthem to remember the men and women, living and dead, who are our people,  our Anzacs.

A Remembrance poppy.

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The Ode For The Fallen (lines 13 to 16) - here and above.
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US SSN Visit, Fleet Base West, Perth Australia

US Embassy, Canberra, Australia reported, April 24, 2022:

"The United States Navy submarine USS Springfield (SSN 761) has arrived [at HMAS Stirling aka Fleet Base West, at Rockingham, just south of Perth, Western Australia] for a scheduled port visit.

[Los Angeles class, SSN] Springfield is forward-deployed to the Pacific island of Guam and routinely operates in the Indo-Pacific, conducting maritime security operations and supporting national security interests." 

[Since March 21, 2022, USS Springfield has been in Submarine Squadron 15 based at Naval Base Guam (Apra Harbour).]  

USS Springfield docking at Australia's Fleet Base West. Note the Australian flag/Naval ensign on Springfield. (Photo courtesy Commander, US 7th Fleet website).

+++++++++++++++

5 days ago US Embassy, Canberra, reported:

"...The submarine tender USS Frank Cable (AS 40) [also normally based at Guam] is visiting HMAS Stirling Naval Base near Rockingham as part of routine operations in the Indo-Pacific region...."
+++++++++++++++++++++

For further details see APDR  article of May 3, 2022: "Emory S. Land-class submarine tender USS Frank Cable (AS 40) completed her first weapons handling exercise involving the transfer of an inert training shape to a U.S. Navy submarine at HMAS Stirling Naval Base in Australia in late April. The exercise included the transfer of a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile (TLAM) inert training shape. Moored alongside Los Angeles-class fast-attack submarine USS Springfield (SSN 761),..."

Pete Comment

As far as I'm aware this is the first US SSN port visit to Australia since the AUKUS submarine plan was announced in September, 2021.

It is possible this US SSN visit reflects an opening up of Australia's AUKUS submarine purchasing plans. 

To date the Australian Federal Government has been strongly channeling purchase of UK Astutes or UK Astute Replacements (SSNRs). Note the photo here and HMS Astute's October 29. 2021, visit to Fleet Base West, which, unlike USS Springfield's visit, strongly featured senior Australian politicians, like Defence Minister Peter Dutton.

Also see record of all known US subs at "US Nuclear Subs Visiting Fleet Base

West, WA since 2005" of May 31, 2015 here.

Solomons Suck Sino Sausage

Thousand of American GIs and sailors died defending the Solomon Islands in World War Two and now China is buying the Solomons for a low rent. 

2,000 km east nor-east of Australia (Map courtesy Whereig above) is the gaggle of Solomon Islands (below).  

Ever since SMI reported the Solomon Islands' new love for China in November 2019
 and March 2022 things have been going from bad to worse. 

Australia's authoritative ABC augurs April 23, 2022: 

"One of Joe Biden's top advisers has urged Solomon Islands not to allow a Chinese military base in the country, warning the United States would "respond accordingly" to any steps in that direction.

The White House is also promising to bring forward the re-establishment of a US embassy in Honiara [capital of the Solomon Islands] and to provide the country with more medical aid.

It comes as a former senior American diplomat criticised the decision to close the embassy almost 30 years ago, suggesting the US had sought to "outsource" its relationships in the region.

This week's visit to Honiara by senior US officials including the Indo-Pacific coordinator of the National Security Council, Kurt Campbell, came too late to prevent the signing of a security pact between Solomon Islands and China.

Both the US and Australia are worried the deal could lead to Beijing establishing a base less than 2,000 kilometres off the Queensland [Australia] coast, despite assurances from Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare this would not happen..."

HERE IS THE WHOLE ABC ARTICLE

French Barracuda SSN Secrets to Russia via Anyone

Emblem of Russian Military Intelligence (GRU). Having not covered itself in glory after  underestimating Ukrainian resistance, the GRU would dearly love French Barracuda SSN secrets, via any sources. (Image courtesy Espfutbol98 via Wikipedia).

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In response to Anonymous’ comment of April 19, 2022. 

You make some very valid points on Russia being over-ambitious in its economic ability to fund an ongoing military superpower position. 

Russia helps supply India with a whole range of weapon systems. I consider the most important weapons help Russia provides as being: 

1.  Data from past Soviet two stage thermonuclear tests. See the basic design of a two stage weapon, top right corner here. India uses them for computer simulations. That way India has not needed to risk further international censure, which would have occurred if India had needed to conduct thermonuclear tests itself. This is after criticism of India's and Pakistan's May 1998 nuclear tests. Meanwhile Pakistan uses Chinese test results in simulations.  

2.  Missile designs. Probably involving the Agni nuclear missile series and definitely the Oniks derived BrahMos program, and 

3.  Nuclear submarines, including the reactors. Hence former Prime Minister Singh, when Arihant was launched, went out of his way to thank Russia.  

Such is the ongoing level of Russian nuclear sub help, a third lease of an SSN (to be another Akula dubbed "Chakra III") will occur in a few years time. Russia is probably also assisting India build the full sized S5 SSBNs perhaps based on Russian Deltas and maybe early Boreys.  

It would be foolhardy for France to pass India sensitive Barracuda SSN design details or even actual Barracudas. Russian military intelligence (GRU) agents and plain friendships between the Russian nuclear sub industry and Indian sub designers/Indian Navy should put France on guard. 

Russia's Ukraine invasion and Putin announcing the increase in Russia's nuclear threat level would have demonstrated to France that Russia verges on being a semi-Hot "Cold" War  enemy of France. 

The risk of French nuke sub secrets finding their way to Russia via India are too great. Russia would dearly love a full range of Barracuda acoustic and other emissions to give Russian Yasen SSNs technical advantages over French Navy Barracudas. Also a comprehensive Russian knowledge of French Barracuda quieting technologies, including pumpjets, would be handy. 

Now Australia will need to be mindful that its UK and US designed nuclear subs (more advanced than the French) are always a prime target of hostile espionage.

India a useful nuclear armed QUAD member.

On April 17-18, 2022, readers responded to my rather harsh April 17, 2022, comments at INDO-RUSSIAN Economic Pact undoing QUAD?:

Gessler argued the Indo-Russian economic relationship was “comparatively minor”…”India's energy imports from Russia are miniscule.” With Russia supplying “less than 1%” of India’s energy imports. Gessler quoted "Europe buys more oil from Russia in an afternoon than India does in a month". Russia is selling energy to India at a discount price (meaning the Russians sell at a loss).

Gessler argued words to the effect - better that India retains strategic links (mainly arms buying) from Russia, rather than pushing Russia into a closer strategic and arms relationship with China. It would be unfortunate if Russia became so economically (including arms trade) dependent that advanced Russian nuclear submarine and aero engine bureaus/companies were sold to China -  intellectual property rights and all.    

"As of a QUAD without India, I'd think any geo-economic containment of China would either fail or at the very least introduce a whole degree of uncertainty in the minds of several Asian & South-East Asians nations if India were not on board with it." 

"But I doubt it would happen though - India is no more dependent or friendly with Russia today than [India] was back in 2017 when the "QUAD 2.0" started. [If anything India] is less friendly to Russia now - thanks to being spited by Russia by way of exclusion from the 'Extended Troika' peace process for Afghanistan.

Pete Comment

No one can reasonably expect that India will shelve its non-aligned stance that has served it well for at least 60 years. During World War Two non-aligned/neutral Sweden (eg. Bofors) and Switzerland traded heavily and exchanged intelligence with the Allies and with Germany. There was no lasting damage to Sweden's and Switzerland's international reputation. 

Countries just have to accept friendly countries having different foreign policy outlooks. For example, Australia has a "Partners across the globe" relationship with NATO - which is one of many reasons Australia is concerned about Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

India's possession of nuclear weapons backs up its non-alignment and this possession also makes India a valuable member of the QUAD. India's large conventional forces and geographical position (bordering China and in the Indian Ocean) also make India a useful QUAD member.

India is understandably unhappy being excluded from the "Extended Troika" process in which Pakistan, China, the US and Russia have been discussing the latest situation in Afghanistan. Pakistan hosted one of the meetings in Islamabad, November 11, 2021, and China hosted another meeting on March 31, 2022. 

After Ukraine Invasion Japan To Increase Russian LNG Imports

On April 17, 2022, Gessler kindly drew my attention to a CNBC article of March 31, 2022.

That article reported: 

“Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s announcement on [March 31, 2022] that he would not abandon a massive Russian [Sakhalin-2 liquefied natural gas (LNG)] project was decided weeks ago when he told top officials in private he wouldn’t risk Japan’s energy security, three sources said. [Pete comment: Japanese, other western and Russian entities have been discussing the Sakhalin-II aka Sakhalin-2 LNG concept as early as 1991/92.] 

Even as [Japan] targets Russian banks and oligarchs with sanctions, Japan has less leeway than some of its allies to cut ties to Russian gas, on which it has become more reliant since shutting down nuclear reactors after the 2011 Fukushima disaster.

For more than a decade, energy-poor Japan has tapped Russian gas to cut its Middle East oil reliance and to make up for lost nuclear capacity.”

Though Russia's share of Japanese energy imports is only about 8-10% (still much greater than India's), the Sakhalin LNG projects are crucial for Japan's decarbonization agenda.

Pete Comment

Such a large project will continue long after Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been fought to standstill. If, as seems possible, Russia may end the invasion after seizing additional eastern and southern Ukrainian territory, it will be of little help to Ukraine if Japan permanently refuses to do business with Russia.

INDO-RUSSIAN Economic Pact undoing QUAD?

India's lack of opposition to Russia's invasion of Ukraine is becoming difficult to sustain. 

In a much more minor matter Gessler from India has commented:

"It's been an eventful few weeks for India-Australia relations. 

The biggest news was probably the signing of a Free Trade Agreement (called Economic Cooperation & Trade Agreement or ECTA. "Ecta/Ekta" meaning Unity in the Hindi language), while usually deals like this would be solely relegated to issues of trade & economy, this FTA also has a Strategic tinge to it - as summarized in some detail here in this Financial Express article by Harsh V. Pant, VP of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), India's premier strategic think-tank: 

In addition, there have also been several MoUs signed for the setting up of Critical Mineral supply chains (especially Lithium), where Australia is a huge supplier of the materials and India has a growing requirement. I'd imagine these deals are following up on the coattails of objectives set by the QUAD summit in September 2021."

COMMENT

India joined the QUAD on the basis that the near enemies (US, Australia, Japan) of my enemy (China) are my friends.

But now those 3 QUAD members need to decide whether the friend (India) of our near enemy (Russia) is now not our friend. 

Since February 2022 India's lack of criticism of Russian aggression towards Ukraine  seems to be returning India to India's previous pro-Russian pseudo "non-aligned" status. With India economically supporting expansionist Russia, India's ECTA with Australia to some extent maintains ambivalent relations. 

Wiki advises:

"In March 2022, when Western nations imposed economic sanctions on Russia in the aftermath of its invasion of the Ukraine, India and Russia explored alternative payment system due to exclusion of most Russian banks from SWIFT and Visa/Mastercard. Officials from both countries were discussing accepting RuPay and MIR cards. The Reserve Bank of India and the Bank of Russia seek to facilitate financial transactions through an independent rupee-ruble exchange system, particularly for the purchase of sunflower oil by India, and the export of petroleum products and fertilizers by the Russian Federation. India also depends crucially on Russia for its defence equipment and parts. Additionally, Indian Oil Corp. had reportedly reached a deal to buy 3 million barrels of oil from Russia’s Rosneft at a 20% discount to global prices.^[58][59]"

^{It remains to be seen whether a Russia aligned India} could be ejected from the QUAD.

Justice! Russian Cruiser "Moskva" Sinks.

In the lower part of this photo is a April 7, 2022 shot of Russia's Moskva docked at Sevastopol, Crimea. It is resting between slaughtering Ukrainians.

 (Photo courtesy MAXAR via AP)

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Russia admits its 14,500 tonne cruiser Moskva, flagship of the Black Seas Fleet, sank on April 14, 2022, with no reported casualties (?). It remains unclear whether Moskva’s fire (resulting in ammunition exploding) was caused by Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles. The fire apparently started around 100km off the Ukrainian coast, well within the 300+ km range of truck launched Neptune missiles. It is unclear whether Moskva was carrying any nuclear warheads on some of its SS-N-12 Sandbox large supersonic "carrier killer" cruise missiles. 

The fire may have been yet another instance of poor Russian maintenance, seen earlier in the submarines Kursk,  Orel and Losharik, not to mention a crane and fire damaging Russian carrier Admiral Kuznetsov. 

Ukraine: Beautiful Sad Patriotic Song.

 

Here and above is a beautiful and sad, patriotic Ukrainian song, including the lyrics:

"To liberate their homeland Ukraine from the shackles of Moscow." 

Mutton's Wedge: Australian Subs built Overseas!?

Australia's AuManufacturing, April 7, 2022 reports:

"PATRICK ATTACKS SUBS CONSTRUCTION BACKFLIP"

Independent Senator [for Adelaide dominated, South Australia] Rex Patrick has criticised an apparent backflip by the federal government in their plans to build nuclear powered submarines in Adelaide.

According to a report in The Australian [current] Prime Minister Scott Morrison said that the nuclear submarines being acquired by Australia under the Aukus pact may be imported.

Morrison said that the need to have a submarine deterrent quickly trumped any need to favour local construction.

Senator Patrick, a former submariner, took to social media to criticise the backflip." 

Pete Comment

Given submarine building in Adelaide has been a sacred right since time immemorial (well, since the late 1970s) Morrison raising the issue of building the submarines overseas can only be seen as a pre-Election wedge tactic - to embugger the Opposition.

It was Submarine Matters that first raised the potential of nuclear submarines to drive a political wedge between Australia's main Opposition Greens and Labor parties and more damaging between the pro-nuke sub and anti-nuclear wings of Labor.

Morrison and his henchman/rival Peter Dutton (together they are "Mutton") have to date been frustrated that Labor has used the "small target" bi-partisan tactic of passively agreeing with the Morrison government's nuclear sub policy. 

Mutton, by naming 3 east-coast nuclear sub base possibilities, attempted, with limited success, in inducing the Labor wings to argue. But my hero, Labor leader Anthony "Albo" Albanese managed to hose down the most loathsome inter-wing disagreements.

Now Mutton's extra-ordinary statement that the nuke subs might be built overseas, where there are no Australian voters, can be seen as a gamble to extract comments from Albanese and the pro-nuke subs wing that "nuclear subs should be built in Adelaide".

Mutton then hopes that "Nuclear NIMBY (NN)" elements of the Labor movement will then contradict Albo's sound, manly and dare I say, fair, pro-nuclear sentiments. 

Mutton is banking on tame reporters asking every Labor person in sight whether they agree/disagree that Australia's future nuclear subs should be built overseas.

Whether Mutton succeeds the ensuing weeks, up to the May Election, will tell.

Australia Likely to Buy UK Astutes: Capt. "Chris" Skinner

Here and above is a video recorded address by Captain Christopher "Chris" Skinner RAN (Retired) concerning "Nuclear Powered Submarines and other AUKUS technologies for the [Australian Defence Force] ADF." This authoritative and concise presentation was hosted by the Royal United Services Institute of New South Wales, on January 25, 2022.

Up to 19:35 into the Youtube Chris Skinner describes AI, LDUUVs and other AUKUS agreement technologies.

19:35 Chris Skinner begins to discuss the issues and advantages of SSNs.  

45:45 - Part of the training of nuclear propulsion scientists, engineers (including engineering officers to serve on SSNs) requires a land based "light" [ie. miniature] nuclear propulsion reactor. Australia's small "OPAL" reactor at Lucas Heights, Sydney, has the wrong characteristics. Australia will need a land based reactor of the type that will actually go into its future SSNs.  

49:35 Chris Skinner displays the SSNs for Australia "Nuclear Propulsion Roadmap" below:

 which requires:

- the Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE) rebuilds to begin 2026
- the first Australian "SSN01" to begin building in 2030, and
- the simultaneous lease of 3 US or UK SSNs by 2036.   

Jumping forward in the Youtube

55:10 Question from the floor to Chris Skinner: “You mentioned leasing [nuclear subs] from the UK and US with their own actual crew. Would [those leased nuclear subs] be HMAS, HMS or USS?

55:28 Chris Skinner “No they’d by USS and HMS. They’d be commissioned boats of that country, which we are paying for them to base in Western Australia [Australia’s main submarine base at HMAS Stirling aka Fleet Base West, just south of Perth] and to offer training billets in those submarines for Australian submariners to achieve the qualifications we need for our own nuclear submarines.

Jumping back in the Youtube

51:45 Chris Skinner says:

“If, as I think we will, go with the UK Astute class” “It figured, by the way pretty heavily, [in the AUKMIN Talks Joint Statement January 21, 2022 see paragraphs 5 and 6]. Its right up front in the Joint Ministerial Statement."

"The Astute has a number of advantages. Its smaller crew.
It runs to a UK culture which the Australian Navy still follows etc. 
We expect that the UK would build the reactor and the propulsion plant. That’s all the after part of the submarine.
The US would build the Combat System gear and probably
why not get Lockheed Martin to rollover from the Attack-class to building these,
and we put it all together and assemble it in South Australia.
That’s doable."

56:04 Chris Skinner “I’m not insisting on Chatham House Rules”

1:01 Chris Skinner words to the effect - extra diesel submarines for Australia (in addition to the Collins LOTE process) are a distraction which has been ruled out at the highest levels in Canberra. We have other ways of dealing with the force structure. [Chris may be implying part interim Australian use of LDUUVs, ASW surface ships and ASW aircraft...to fill any perceived submarine gap.]

1:04:07 Question from the floor to Chris Skinner: What of “the media reporting that the US and the US don’t have nuclear submarines to lease”
Chrs Skinner response to the effect Money, time and strategic need would make it possible. The SSN purchase process is not determined by elections but money to submarine building companies like BAE, talks.
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In much more detail Here is the RUSI NSW's "INSTITUTE PROCEEDINGS [of Chris Skinner's address [PDF 4 pages]  The Significance of the Tri-Partite AUKUS Agreement A paper based on a presentation to the Institute in Sydney on 25 January 2022 by Captain Christopher Skinner, RAN (Retired).

HMS Astute's Dockside Testing & Out to Sea

Here and above is a Youtube "BAE Systems Maratime (Building of Astute Class Submarine). It was uploaded June 29, 2014 but most is August 2009. It is about design and  dockside testing of HMS Astute. The last few minutes are particularly inspiring. Highlights include:

4 min 51 secs Barrow-in-Furness is a submarine shipyard "town" of 60,000 people launching its first sub Abdül Hamid in 1887. That first sub used a coal fired steam engine, with minimal batteries, for a few minutes submerged.

7:02 Barrow is the only site in the UK "where we design, build, test and commission nuclear submarines" [all these facilities and workforce specialties will need to be duplicated in Adelaide, whatever it costs]

7:30 show gets down to Astutes subs.

15:32 "A submarine packs in 3 times more machinery and equipment than any surface ship [of the same weight]"

15:45 Space for 2 x MTU Diesel generators - shows noise reduction mounting. 

20:05 Command Deck Module with navigation and Combat System

31:20 Spearfish Torpedo slid in and sub uses Tomahawks

32:00 RN crew test Astute's Combat System in wargame exercise, still dockside.

35:00 Nuclear emergency measures - whole message seems "no worries".

40:26 -  as at August 2009? "Astute is over 4 years late and overspent by about 800 million pounds" [and that sub is being built by the UK submarine experts - more efficient than Australia!] 

40:28 September 5, 2009 "and we're starting barrage(?) testing"  

44:00 "testing a new design reactor" [its the PWR2 (Core H) as against the PWR2 (Core Gs) originally fitted in the Vanguard SSBNs] 

53:05 November 14-15, 2009 Astute exits dock area to sea.

AUKUS Nuke Sub: HMAS Vegemite Mooted

 

Australia chooses SAAB as main foreign contractor for Australia's AUKUS sub program

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/leak-reveals-first-details-of-australias-new-aukus-submarine/

 

 

 

Article dated... :)