Leave Lebanon Immediately: Israeli Invasion Likely

Australia's federal government on 30 July advised Australians not to travel to Lebanon and warned those in the country should “leave immediately”. 

https://www.smartraveller.gov.au/destinations/middle-east/lebanon

Pete Comment

Israel has had a low level border war with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria for some time. 

Since October 7/8, 2023 Hezbollah has increased the number of small missiles it has been launching into Israel (including into the Golan Heights). 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hezbollah_conflict_(2023%E2%80%93present)

Also it is dangerous for Australians living in or visiting northern Israel. 

An Israeli land invasion and/or increased shelling of southern Lebanon may occur shortly. 

Rex Airline Problems

 Published July 30/31 in The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/jul/30/rex-airlines-federal-government

“Rex airlines enters voluntary administration with all flights between capital cities grounded”

“Federal government says Rex ‘will have a future’ with minister suggesting Labor will step in to save troubled company

Rex airlines enters voluntary administration with all flights between capital cities grounded

Federal government says Rex ‘will have a future’ with minister suggesting Labor will step in to save troubled company

All Rex flights between capital cities have been grounded and the airline has entered voluntary administration just hours after the Albanese government suggested it would intervene to ensure the nation’s third-largest carrier didn’t collapse.

Late on Tuesday, EY – formerly known as Ernst & Young – announced it had been appointed as administrators of the company, and that the airline’s Boeing 737 operations between capital cities such as Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane had been grounded, with Virgin Australia stepping in to offer impacted passengers rebooking “free of charge”.

Rex’s regional operations with its Saab 340 turboprop planes remained [currently] unaffected by the administration and would continue to operate.

The administrators said Rex and Virgin Australia were also exploring opportunities to support regional customers, including by having Virgin Australia sell Rex’s regional services through codeshare or interline arrangements, and making Velocity Frequent Flyer benefits available to Rex’s regional customers.

…Rural mayors across Australia whose communities rely on Rex for connectivity warned of further isolation if the carrier went under, while leaders of larger regional centres feared airfare price hikes from Qantas if the routes were left without competition.

…On Monday [29 July] , the Australian stock exchange announced it had suspended trade in Rex’s shares at the airline’s request “pending it releasing an announcement”.

Rex was initially called Regional Express following its formation after the death of Ansett. Rex has mostly been a regional carrier, operating 36-seater Saab 340 turboprop aircraft.

…Rex has also confronted a shortage of parts to repair its ageing fleet of Saab 340 aircraft for its core regional operations, which have also been hampered by a shortage of pilots for the smaller planes…."

Only in America Do Obvious Assassins Have Legal Advantages

There has been a vast amount of discussion in America and internationally following the attempt on Trump's life. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Donald_Trump

Many/most criticise the US Secret Service. But they were constrained by Pennsylvanian law which make Pennsylvania assassin friendly in some unintended respects. 

My information is the Secret Service snipers had Trump’s would be assassin in their sights before he fired the first shot. 

However due to regulations they were not authorised to shoot him simply for climbing on the roof carrying a rifle. 

They had to wait until he actually aimed at people – which then gave him the opportunity to fire the first shots. 

All this is because Pennsylvania is an open carry of rifles state. The would-be assassin did not even need a Gun License to openly carry a rifle in that part of Pennsylvania.

Because the Secret Service officers were unable to conclude if the man was authorised to climb on the roof, because he was legally able to carry a rifle and because he had not yet aimed it at people, there were no grounds to kill him fast enough.

Kamala Harris's Chances of Winning Presidency

1. Hot Regional News! Eurobodalla shire plastic bag recycling restarted in late June. The waste process involves breaking down the soft plastics in a recycling machine called a pyrolysis plant which converts plastics into oil for use in plastic manufacturing,” Also the generated gas is distributed back into a hybrid generator and used to power the pyrolysis plant. Conflation? This doesn’t mean plastic bags will return to supermarkets as the law bans them. More see https://aboutregional.com.au/soft-plastic-recycling-returns-to-eurobodalla-shire/454187/

2. After Biden’s rapid decline he finally abandoned his bid today (Aus time) for re-election as US prez. Biden has endorsed vice-prez Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination. But Biden out comes late with only 3 and a half months until the 5/6 November 2024 Elections. As at July 22 Harris is hot favourite at 93% converting Sportsbet to be Democratic candidate. Yet she only has a 33% chance of beating Trump at the Election. Trump has a 69% Sportsbet chance of winning the Election. Remote possibilities for Democratic nominee are Michelle Obama at 7% (who so far doesn’t want the job), Gavin Newsom (2%) and Wes Moore (2%). Pete Buttigieg (Harvard graduate, Rhode Scholar (at Oxford), ex-soldier, senior politician) has not put himself in contention. The 3 day Democratic National Convention from 19/20 Aug 2024 needs to confirm Harris as Democrat nominee. 

Meanwhile Trump has claimed that he was only winged by the shooter's bullet because of divine intervention (ie. due to an act of God). Trump later said "I took a bullet for democracy".

3. Australia's Channel Nine TV’s Paris Olympics coverage starts 10.30pm (Aus Eastern Time) this Friday 26 July. But the actual Opening Ceremony starts 4½ hours later at 3am on Saturday morning 27 July. Then coverage will be about 18 hours per day until 11 August. Also Gem (Channels 51 or 81? on your remote) and 9HD (50 or 80?) will cover other Olympics events most of the day).

4. Reported early July. Bill Shorten (the prude) has ruled out any possibility of sex workers, ie. Human Prostitutes, sex toys or, tragically, Tarot card readers for disabled NDIS clients. Rats!

5. Experts write that most men do not phone helplines when they are in crisis. Many struggle with individual therapy and men’s-only group therapy is not readily available. While they are socialised to prioritise independence and stoicism, loneliness is killing men. Without proper support and intervention nothing will change. More at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/22/loneliness-is-killing-men-and-without-proper-support-and-intervention-nothing-will-change

6. In midwinter across southern Australia many dogs are rugged up just like their owners. But should they be? The advice from vets is that most dogs in most circumstances do not need an extra coat, and dressing them up may be more likely to cause them to overheat, poor little pooches! And its discrimination - cats go naked, poor pussycats! Do you overdress your dog? Do you have a Whippet or Saint Bernard? More at https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/article/2024/jul/20/hot-to-trot-does-your-dog-really-need-a-jacket-in-the-australian-winter

7. What keeps you going in this world of “doom scrolling” bad news?

8. A Generative AI system might use around 33 times more energy than machines running task-specific software, according to a recent study. The world’s data centres are using ever more electricity. In 2022, they gobbled up 460 terawatt hours of electricity, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects this to double in just four years. Data centres could be using a total of 1,000 terawatts hours annually by 2026. “This demand is roughly equivalent to the electricity consumption of Japan,” says the IEA. Japan has a population of 125 million people.

9. Texas based big customer cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike that was at the center of the world’s largest ever IT outage (on Friday) claims it has almost fixed the problem. The Crowdstrike crash “blue screen of death” effected Australia's ABC network badly on Friday.

Trump May Sell Out Ukraine to Russia

Trump's choice of Vance as his Vice Presidential running mate may increase the possibility of US isolationism over Ukraine ie. little or no more US aid for Ukraine. A Trump win on November 5, 2024 may further lead to Trump "the Statesman" brokering a Russo-Ukraine "peace" treaty that favours Russia's possession of Ukraine. Trump has a track record in his first presidency of siding with Putin.  

Trump clearly does not to respect the usual pro-NATO alliance solidarity values that would favour Ukrainian independence. Instead the following US national self-interest and economic priorities may appeal to a second Trump Administration:

1.  The US State, Defense departments and intelligence community might remind Trump that the war is eroding Russian military and political power. The Ukraine war may be costing Russia about US$200 million/day and weakening Russia’s army and navy. 

2.  Western sanctions on Russian energy sales are leading to international energy scarcity, with consequent energy price rises and higher profits for US companies including their profits on exports to European countries. This boosts US Government revenue from  taxation on US energy companies. 

3.  Another factor in Ukraine's favour is that the Russo-Ukraine war benefits US arms companies selling weapons and ammunition to the US Defense Department which then gifts these items to Ukraine. 

4.  More generally what is good for the US military-industrial complex is good for the US in terms of increased US national economic growth benefitting the US workforce.

Trump Shooting and Magnetometers

A magnetometer is a device that measures magnetic field or magnetic dipole moment.

SubMatts readers will be aware that magnetometers for submarine detection have been in action against submarines all the way back to 1918 being developed earlier in 1915. 

Magnetometers (more commonly called "metal detectors" in those modes) can do many other things including detecting the metal in bombs, guns and knives.

Article

J. Stass Haught for New Jersey (dot) com on July 13, 2024 reported:

How a gun at Trump rally would be found

In the wake of a shocking incident at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where former President Donald Trump was shot, people are wondering about the security measures in place at such events. 

One critical component of event security that has gained attention is the magnetometer, used to look for guns and weapons at the rally.

What is a magnetometer?

A magnetometer is a device used to detect magnetic fields. It plays a crucial role in security settings by identifying metallic objects carried by people entering secure areas, such as public events, airports, and government buildings. 

At political rallies and public gatherings, magnetometers are used as part of the massive security protocols, to screen attendees before entry.

How does a magnetometer work?

Magnetometers operate by sensing disruptions in magnetic fields caused by metallic objects. When a person passes through a magnetometer, it alerts security personnel to the presence of such objects. This allows for immediate action to prevent potential harm and maintain a secure environment.

Most people would recognize magnetometers from [US Transportation Security Administration] TSA checkpoints, but they can also be wands, hand-held detectors and larger archway style scanners.

Pete Comment/Background

Where this is going is that CNN reported on July 15 that the attempted assassin ("shooter") "was spotted by local [police] who thought he might’ve been acting suspiciously near the event magnetometers on [on July 13, 2024 - the day of the shooting], according to a senior [policeman]. They put it out over their radio to keep an eye on him – and that information was passed to Secret Service as well, according to the source."

It appears the shooter seeing the magnetometers stopped before he got into the security perimeter covered by those magnetometers because the unusually high amount of metal in his rifle would have been detected. 

The shooter turned back and climbed (or gained entry) to the roof of a nearby building. The Butler township policemen that saw him could not safely get on that roof. Then the shooter fired the shots.

It appears there just wasn't time using radio messages for the police and the Secret Service to react effectively before the bullet hit Trump's ear. 

In 20/20 hindsight perhaps the police who saw the armed shooter should have fired warning shots (to alert everyone) before the shooter could fire his shots. Or could the Secret Service sniper(s), who eventually killed the shooter, have acted more quickly? 

Taboo Topics July 1, 2024: US, UK & French Elections

1. In last week’s US Presidential debate Biden distinguished himself as a pollycodger already too old to lead the US, let alone lead it until 2029. It could be Biden sees himself as America's best hope to stop unhinged Trump again becoming POTUS, but whether Biden is realistic is doubtful. Since the 2020 Presidential debates Biden has aged rapidly. From a 50% Sportsbet chance of winning 6 months ago current odds are Biden only has a 20% chance. Meanwhile congenitally lying Trump has a 62% chance in the 6^th (Aussie time) November Presidential Election. If Biden chooses to stand down beforehand likely Democrat replacements are Gavin Newsom (56yo Governor of California), Michelle Obama (60yo, ex-First Lady and senior executive), Gretchen Witmer (52yo Governor of Michigan), Kamala Harris (VP), screeching Hillary (nooo!!!) and Taylor Swift (at 500 to 1). Go Swifty!!

2. French politics are quite broad - having a large far right and a small Communist Party. The first round of the French parliamentary election (which is not a Presidential election) was held on 1 July 2024 our time, The second round will be held on 8 July our time. Long time far right leader Marine Le Pen says voters want to “turn the page” as early estimates suggest her party is making big gains. Fears are growing that Le Pen’s anti-immigration and frequently anti-Semitic National Front might win, controlling the French Parliament. All more exciting than Aussieland's boring moderation!?

3. Another boring glasses wearing middle aged white guy git (like me) named Keir Starmer, who leads Britain’s Labour Party, is likely to win Saturday 6th July (Aus times) UK Elections in a landslide. This is after 14 years of Conservative Party Brexiteer misrule. French and UK elections relevant to Oz?

4. A rocky island on the Scottish coast is covered with garden gnomes but nobody knows exactly how they got there. The gnomes first appeared there in 2010, with some people speculating they were left by a local fisherman or the Loch Ness Monster’s younger sister Nellie. All true except for Lochie’s sister’s name. Should garden gnomes run for Parliament?

5. Coral and Christine’s Factcheck: Kangaroos are usually left handed. Proof? Kangaroos rarely play tennis with their right hands.

6. [If there’s time] In a May 2024 Senate speech Fatima Payman broke ranks with the ALP by accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza, criticising her own Labor Party for failing to condemn Israel's war crimes in Gaza, and called for sanctions against Israel. This was before she crossed the floor, in late June, supporting a Green’s resolution that Australia recognise a Palestinian state and she said she’d do it again. She has been suspended from the Labor caucus but can come back if she says sorry. Is she right?

7. Taboo idea. If Australia had peace loving nuclear weapons they would benefit all. This is noting France and the UK each use only one submarine (with 8 to 16 nuke missiles) at any one time, to deter Russia’s maximum of around 10,000 warheads. Four Baby Boomers for Australia in the future?

8. Assange’s return has been a boring fizzer - with Jules very quiet, so far.