AUKUS Submarines Situation Getting Worse

Since it was announced in 2021 the AUKUS Pillar 1 situation has been getting worse. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS#Pillar_1_%E2%80%93_Nuclear-powered_submarines

From 2028 [1] US completion rates will actually decline from 1.1 standard Virginias per year to 0.8 larger Virginia Block Vs - making availability for the Australian navy even worse. The US is flat out building Columbia-class SSBNs (the highest USN priority - which is where Australia's gifted AUKUS $Billions are ending up). The main US effort is building Columbias until 2042, [2] with sufficient Virginias only available to send to the Australian navy in the mid 2040s. The UK situation of only one or no Astutes available at any one time, is even worse, as this bodes ill for the Astutes' successor, the SSN AUKUS.

Like the Vietnam War that failed, AUKUS is too big to admit failure - until US withdrawal, or reason, forces Australia to withdraw.

[1]  See USS Oklahoma and USS Arizona, the first Virginia Block Vs. expected to be commissioned in 2028. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class

[2]  See “All twelve [Columbias] are expected to be completed by 2042…” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia-class_submarine#Overview

China's New 004 Nuclear Carriers to be larger than Fords

China has a continuous build aircraft carrier program that may be catching up to the US Ford carrier program in quality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_programme#List_of_carriers

Despite Western criticism (mainly reliance on conventional propulsion) see here and here China’s latest carrier, the Fujian Type 003, appears relatively successful. It boasts the latest functioning electromagnetic (EMALS) CATOBAR system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_aircraft_carrier_Fujian already used on USS Ford.

The Type 004 is planned to be larger than the Type 003, even 10,000 to 20,000 tonnes larger than a Ford. China has suggested the 004s may use novel TMSR-LF1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TMSR-LF1 thorium-based molten-salt reactors. This may be a false claim or at least a technical risk, likely to have a PWR backup plan. Construction of the first 004 started in 2024–2025. The large size of a 004 would permit larger, heavier carrier aircraft (like the J-20) with a higher war-load, and longer range than aircraft on Ford carriers.

Along with China’s 3 existing carriers, 6 x 004s in all may be built to give China regional dominance in the Western Pacific by 2035 over the Fords. This is if Fords continue to have global responsibilities or withdraw to a US coastal defensive posture under America First.