The second Agni 5 test, any MIRV?

 

Unclear what payload Agni V can carry at the maximum 5,000 km range.
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Agni 5's second test.

Notably the second Agni test was for one warhead but what about the three warhead MIRV testing?
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Comments on Agni 5's first test - which took place in April 2012

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India conducted its second Agni 5 ICBM test flight from Wheeler Island, Orissa on September 15, 2013. The Agni 5 has the range to fire a 500 kg warhead 8,000 km covering China, Japan, parts of Russia, most of Southeast Asia, much of Australia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and parts of Western Europe.

The Agni 5 is about 17 meters long, weighs 50 tonnes and has three rocket booster stages. It can be launched from a road mobile vehicle, hardened silo or from a special railway wagon.

The first test of the Agni 5 missile was conducted on April 19, 2012. The development of Agni 5 began in 2009 (according to DRDO). It may begin to be deployed from 2015.

The highly publicised second test is to a degree domestically aimed at justifying the high expense of missile development to the public and broader Indian Government (which has many competing interests for the money spent). The launch is a genuine source of pride for many in India and concern in Pakistan and China. Information on the Agni 5 ICBM (defined as 5,500+km range) test was highly detailed. Almost all parametres except multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicle (MIRV) separation may have been tested.

The Agni 5 is arguably an Agni 3 with a third stage. The Agni 5 range may be 5,000 km with a 1,500 kg payload (with 3 multiple re-entry vehicles (MIRVs))  and (reportedly) 8,000 km with a 500 kg (one RV) payload. Agni 5 is specifically designed to have an average (probably 1,000 kg payload) range to strike all of China.

One of several reasons for developing the Agni 5 is as a response to China's similar weight, highly land mobile DF-21. While the DF-21 has an estimated range of only 3,000 km, when placed near the China-India border a DF-21 could hit all targets in India. In contrast an Agni 5 on the Indian side of the same border needs to boost warheads the length of China (5,000 km) to hit Beijing and Shanghai.

India's planned SLBMs in indigenous SSBNs will eventually provide the most survivable second and first strike option. Notably the US, France and UK have steadily shifted the majority of their active nuclear warheads to SSBNs over the last 30 years.

India's SLBMs from the defendable waters of the Indian Ocean will need a range of at least 6,500 km to hit any target in China. India's proposed plan of fitting 3 - 5,000 km range navalised Agni 3 SLBMs to its future SSBNs would require these SSBNs to transit the dangerous chokepoints in the Indonesian Archipelago to get within range. Chinese SSNs may guard these chokepoints. These high SLBM strategic and technical requirements in part explain why India at present is emphasising the land mobile Agni 5 component of its evolving nuclear triad.

Shorter range Prithvi  and Agni 1 and 2 missiles encompass Pakistan but Agni 3+ are needed to reach much of China and Agni 5 all of China. The proposed future Surya ICBM class will be able to hit any targets on the planet particularly other nuclear powers.

Agni 5 is or will be “all-composite” that is light casings in its booster stages to extend its range or to permit a heavier payload. According to DRDO sources, an MIRV payload would be significantly heavier since it would consist of several nuclear warheads, each weighing about 400 kg. A five-warhead MIRV, therefore, would weigh two tonnes.

About four additional and successful Agni 5 tests will be required before Agni 5 can be deployed (perhaps in 2015 more likely 2017) as India's long range deterrent missile.

See this blog's reports of Agni 5's first test at http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/latest-news-of-agni-v-test-may-be.html .
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Pete
 

Indian Agni VI range will cover all of Europe and Australia

Agni-6 above - perhaps to be test flown with MIRV in 2017-2018

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Agni VI - click to enlarge. See white lines for Agni VI's potential range (above) with light payloads - covering all of Europe and Australia.

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Agni-5 video (above) dated April 2012 dubbed by Indians as "India's China killer"

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Agni-5 research details from DRDO.

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Ajai Shukla of India's Business Standard reports from New Delhi,  May 8, 2013 http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/advanced-agni-6-missile-with-multiple-warheads-likely-by-2017-113050800034_1.html :

"Advanced Agni-6 [or Agni VI] missile with multiple warheads likely by 2017

Note the Agni VI Missile may be synonymous with the "Surya"

Ending worldwide speculation about the futuristic Agni-6 missile, the Defence R&D Organisation (DRDO) has briefed Business Standard about the direction of India's ballistic missile development programme after the Agni-5 enters service, probably in 2015.

DRDO chief Dr VK Saraswat, and missile programme chief Dr Avinash Chander, say the Agni-6 project has not been formally sanctioned. However, the missile's specifications and capabilities have been decided and development is proceeding apace. Once the ongoing Agni-5 programme concludes flight-testing, the defence ministry (MoD) will formally okay the Agni-6 programme and allocate funding.

Chander says the Agni-6 will carry a massive three-tonne warhead, thrice the weight of the one-tonne warhead that Agni missiles have carried so far. This will allow each Agni-6 missile to launch several nuclear warheads -Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Warheads (MIRVs) - with each warhead striking a different target. Each warhead - called Maneuverable Reentry Vehicle (MARV) - performs evasive maneuvers while hurtling down towards its target, confusing enemy air defence missiles that are trying to destroy them mid-air.

The DRDO is at an advanced stage of developing these warhead technologies. But the difficult challenge is building a booster rocket that can propel a three-tonne payload to targets 5000 kilometres away. This weighs almost as much as the satellite payload carried by the Indian Space Research Organisation's much larger and heavier Global Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV).

"Our ballistic missiles must be compact and road mobile, even the Agni-6 with its heavy payload. We will do this by building the first stage with composites, fitting the Agni-6 with India's first composite 40-tonne rocket motor. This is a technical challenge but we have good capability in lightweight composites," says Chander.

The road mobile Agni-6 would also have stringent limits on its length. "It must be carried on a standard size trailer that can move from one part of the country to another, turn on our roads, cross our bridges and climb our heights. As the payload weight increases, we will require more advanced technologies to keep the missile's length constant," explains Chander.

Coaxing higher performance from smaller rockets becomes especially important in submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), which can be no longer than 13 metres so that they can fit into the cramped confines of a submarine. Even long-range SLBMs that can fly 14,000 kilometres, like the Chinese JL-2, are built no longer than 13 metres. The DRDO faces this challenge as it develops the K-4 SLBM for the country's Arihant-class nuclear-propelled ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs).

Eventually the Agni-6 will be no taller than the Agni-5, i.e. about 17 metres, says Chander. It will, however, be heavier and thicker - slightly over two metres - which will cater for the different shape of the MIRV payload.

"The timeframe for developing a new missile system is about five years and the DRDO has mostly achieved this in the Agni programme," says Chander. Calculating five years from April 2012, when the Agni-5 had its debut launch, the first test of the Agni-6 could happen in 2017.

The DRDO says the Agni-6 will have a longer range than the 5,000-kilometre Agni-5, but is not mentioning figures. "The MARVs and MIRVs will give us extended range. I will not be able to tell you how much because that is secret," Saraswat told Business Standard.

Ballistic calculations, however, suggest that at least some of the MIRV warheads on the Agni-6 would reach at least 6,000 kilometres. In a missile that travels 5,000 kilometres, the last MIRV warhead released flies an extra 1,000 kilometres.

Agni-5 Missile

Currently, the DRDO is readying for the second test next month of the Agni-5 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile. This will be fired in the same configuration as its debut test a year ago, in order to establish the missile's reliability. A third test by end-2013 will see the missile fired from a canister.

"We will conduct at least five-six more Agni-5 tests before the missile enters operational service. After the repeat test this month or the next, we will conduct two test firings from a canister. Then the military units that will operate the Agni-5 will conduct two-three test firings as part of the induction process. Even after induction, the users conduct test firings as part of the Strategic Forces Command training plan," says Avinash Chander.

The Agni-5 is a three-stage, solid-fuel missile but its first stage consists of a metallic rocket motor, while the second and third stages have composite motors."

Comment

Connect with http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/latest-news-of-agni-v-test-may-be.html concerning the April 2012 first test of the Agni-5 where I raised the issue of MIRVs.
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Pete

A 2nd or 3rd Agni-5 test in late 2013?

 

Agni-5 (aka Agni 5 and Agni-V) presentation at DRDO.

 





Comparing Agni-5 (Agni-V) with Agni I, II and III.

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Agni-5 video (above) dated April 2012 dubbed by Indians as "India's China killer"

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Agni-5 research details from DRDO.
 

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The second Agni 5 test subsequently occurred on September 15, 2013 - see http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2013/09/a-second-agni-5-test-any-mirv.html


Ajai Shukla of India's Business Standard reports from New Delhi,  May 8, 2013 http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/advanced-agni-6-missile-with-multiple-warheads-likely-by-2017-113050800034_1.html . Excerpts relevant to Agni-5 include:

...the Defence R&D Organisation (DRDO) has briefed Business Standard about the direction of India's ballistic missile development programme after the Agni-5 enters service, probably in 2015.

Once the ongoing Agni-5 programme concludes flight-testing, the defence ministry (MoD) will formally okay the Agni-6 programme and allocate funding.

Eventually the Agni-6 will be no taller than the Agni-5, i.e. about 17 metres, says Chander. It will, however, be heavier and thicker - slightly over two metres - which will cater for the different shape of the MIRV payload.

"The timeframe for developing a new missile system is about five years and the DRDO has mostly achieved this in the Agni programme," says Chander. Calculating five years from April 2012, when the Agni-5 had its debut launch, the first test of the Agni-6 could happen in 2017.

The DRDO says the Agni-6 will have a longer range than the 5,000-kilometre Agni-5, but is not mentioning figures. "The MARVs and MIRVs will give us extended range. I will not be able to tell you how much because that is secret," Saraswat told Business Standard.

Currently, the DRDO is readying for the second test next month of the Agni-5 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile. This will be fired in the same configuration as its debut test a year ago, in order to establish the missile's reliability. A third test by end-2013 will see the missile fired from a canister.

"We will conduct at least five-six more Agni-5 tests before the missile enters operational service. After the repeat test this month or the next, we will conduct two test firings from a canister. Then the military units that will operate the Agni-5 will conduct two-three test firings as part of the induction process. Even after induction, the users conduct test firings as part of the Strategic Forces Command training plan," says Avinash Chander.

The Agni-5 is a three-stage, solid-fuel missile but its first stage consists of a metallic rocket motor, while the second and third stages have composite motors."

 

Comment

 

Connect with http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2012/04/latest-news-of-agni-v-test-may-be.html concerning the April 2012 first test of the Agni-5 where I raised the issue of MIRVs.
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Pete