In response to Kev's comment at 10/04/2026 8:02 PM
The end of the Life Of Type Extended ("LOTEd") Collins (in about, as you say, 2044) to actual Commissionings of SSN-AUKUS for Australia (in about 2054, if at all) presents an even a bleaker submarine capability gap.
With declining SSN availability for the USN I see no US policy window to export Virginias to Australia. Rather USN Virginias may each have about 15-20 Aus sailors/officers and about 4 US Virginias will rotate at 3 to 4 month intervals at Fleet Base West (FBW). Meanwhile UK PWR2 reactor trouble prone Astutes will conduct 2 week propaganda tours at FBW every 18 months on average.
The 10 year Australian (Aus) Submarine capability gap will need to be filled by a combination of: USN Virginias, French Suffren SSNs (on their New Caledonia/Fr Polynesia tours?), Aus UUVs, Aus surface warships, Aus AUVs, Aus-US satellites, air refueled RAAF F-35A long strike aircraft with standoff missiles, and I foresee "Gilmour Booster-Hypersonix warhead IRBMs" in DF-26 like long range anti-shipping and land attack roles.
2 comments:
Those Sōryū-class submarines are looking more and more logical right now.
Hi Anonymous
As Japan no longer produces Soryus due to Japan progressing to the Taigei's Lithium-ion Batteries (LIBs)(while moving on from the Soryu's problematic Stirling AIP) if Japan - then Taigeis - or the next class for Australia would be the go.
Then the debate shifts to "How about South Korean KSS-IIIs with LIBs, PEM AIP and VLS? or German Type 212CDs (like Canada) with LIBs and PEM AIP?
But the harsh political reality of "Must be built in Osborne, Adelaide" would mean a 20 year delay to the mid 2040s and 3 times the J, SK or German price.
Cheers Pete
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