AUKUS Failing ONE: US Virginias unavailable

It looks like both of Australia's AUKUS Pillar 1 allies US and UK (see next article AUKUS Failing TWO) will not meet their obligations because:

The US lacks the shipyard labour and supply chain efficiency to build Virginia SSNs and higher priority Columbia class SSBNs quickly enough; has a very inefficient Virginia-class maintenance process meaning too many Virginias are unavailable awaiting maintenance/repairs; and lacks the political inclination to put its Australian ally's needs for Virginias over US Navy needs.

and

It is likely Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles’ May 31, 2026 acceptance of three aging Block II or III Virginias (rather than two old and one new Virginia) was a delayed response to hitherto secret US War Department Elbridge Colby’s 2025 Review results. In 2025 Marles and Colby parroted the confected AUKUS is “full steam ahead” slogan. Colby has been long opposed to the US delivering ANY Virginias to Australia. 

In the meantime the US was only too happy to receive a A$5+ Billion AUKUS deposit from Marles.

Non-delivery of Virginias has always been on the cards until the US builds 2.33 to 3 every year. The US cannot achieve such numbers until the US has completed its higher priority run of 12 already delayed Columbia SSBNs, one per year 2031 – 2043. Then the US may be in a position to deliver to Australia one Virginia every 3 years from 2044, 2047 and 2050.

It is odd the Australian Submarine Authority (ASA) without providing any hard evidence, has been spinning that used Virginias are better than new ones. Is ASA arguing it is preferable Australia receive:

-  at worst in 2044 a mid-life updated 31 year old, commissioned 2013, Block II Virginia (like USS Minnesota), 

or 

-  at best a 24 year old Block III Virginia, commissioned in 2020 (like USS Delaware)

-  and such old Virginias are better than new build commissioned in 2044 Block VI Virginias (like USS Brooklyn).

Also where in the troubled heavy (non-reactor) overhaul queue will aging Australian Virginias be placed versus the USN’s own Virginias? The 4 USN shipyards doing heavy overhaul have long queues and many problems like a shortage of skilled workers and supply chain problems. Can we expect ASC Osborne or Australian Fleet Base West to more efficiently handle heavy maintenance?

Remember we are also talking America First’s Trump and perhaps from 2029 to 2032 a President J D Vance - both not known for worrying about alliance loyalties (except with Israel) or keeping unstated “promises”. There is no contract prescribing Australia will get Block IVs – only ASA-Marles spin which has been lapped up by some thinktank, mainstream media and academic cheerleaders.

IF we get a Virginia in 2032, who’s to say it won’t be Block II or at best a III and its just going into, or within, a deep maintenance cycle? We’ve already paid/been paying A$5 Billion deposits (maybe more by 2032 – there being no contract that we only have to pay A$5 Billion).

By 2032 the deposits we’ve sent to the US may be all that aging 20-30 year old Block IIs or IIIs are worth.

I think, through thought repetition, we’ve convinced ourselves our A$Billions are “gifts” but where’s the proof? Things may be worse, with the US and UK seeing these as deposits, that bind Australia to pay much, much more over the next 30+ years.

How can we be certain of anything when AUKUS Pillar One is commercial and national security in Confidence? And AUKUS may involves changeable deals – spread over several US presidencies, every 4 to 8 years, and twice+ as many UK PMships. The Brits are changing their PMs and Defence Secretaries very frequently.

I don’t see any Australians as the authorities on AUKUS. We get what the US and UK deign to give us, after the needs of the USN and then the UK RN are met.