No new Virginia(s) for Australia under AUKUS

PETE COMMENT

Long suspected by me and other honest defence commentators - cracks are becoming severe in US promises of Virginias for Australia under AUKUS. 

Just announced by Australian Defence Minister Marles (notably not in the Australian Parliament but under the PR protection of a joint statement in Singapore) is that there will be no new Virginias for Australia under AUKUS, 

This announcement may amount to delayed recognition of the, to date, Secret findings, of the US Department of War Elbridge Colby AUKUS Virginias 2025 Review. In late 2025-early 2026 the Australian public were assured by the US and a grateful Australia that AUKUS was "full steam ahead". But clearly Marles refused to reveal the the US had reneged on delivering new Virginias. 

So the original September 15, 2021 intention was that the US would deliver to Australia a used Virginia in (say) 2032, another used Virginia (say) in 2035 and then a new Virginia (say) in 2038.

Today is has been announced that the third, 2038 Virginia will not be new, but used. Lets call the Virginias V1Used, V2Used and V3Used.

The original 2021 AUKUS deal also floated the possibility of a two further new Virginias, V4New and V5New perhaps in the 2040s. But Marles does not mention any V4New or V5New - so it is possible the US has also reneged on V4 and V5. 

The US has found repair and maintenance of used Virginia's to be a lengthy, expensive and problematic process. So the prospect of V1Used, V2Used and V3Used holds much higher risks for Australia.

By 2031 the US President of the day may announce Australia will not get V1Used, V2Used or V3Used, as the US Navy (already suffering a severe SSN shortage) needs all Virginias for US defence it can get. 

MARLES' ANNOUNCEMENT IN PRESS ARTICLE BELOW

Stephen Dziedzic in Singapore for Australia's Government owned ABC News, on May 31, 2026 reported at https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-31/australia-to-buy-second-hand-united-states-submarines-aukus/106742496 :

"Australia to buy three second-hand United States submarines under AUKUS shake-up

By foreign affairs reporter Stephen Dziedzic in Singapore

Topic:

• Defence Industry

1 hours ago

Australia will now buy second-hand Virginia-class submarines. (Reuters: Brian Snyder)

In short:

Richard Marles says Australia will purchase second-hand Virginia-class submarines from the United States as part of an AUKUS shift.

Australia was expected to receive at least two used and one new Virginia-class submarine, but those plans have changed.

Mr Marles says there will be "significant" savings for Australia, although it will not make a huge difference to the overall cost of the program.

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Defence Minister Richard Marles says Australia will make "significant" savings under an AUKUS shift that will see the government purchase only second-hand Virginia-class submarines from the United States.

Under the 2021 AUKUS deal, Australia was expected to receive at least two used and one new Virginia-class submarine.

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But late yesterday, the US, UK and Australia announced that they would "streamline" the purchase, with Australia no longer buying any new submarines, and acquiring three second-hand submarines from the same production block.

Mr Marles told reporters at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that AUKUS was an "incredibly complicated" endeavour and "we need to place a premium on simplicity".

"We had the prospect … of almost having four classes of submarines operating at the same time — the last of the Collins Class, two in-service Virginias, a brand new Virginia, and a brand new SSN-AUKUS — that gets pretty complicated," he said.

"What we will have here is a simpler pathway. The Virginias we are acquiring will all be of the same type and I can't overstate the significance of that.

"Chasing simplicity is at the heart of why we've pursued this."

He also said there will be "significant" savings for Australia, although it will not make a huge difference to the overall cost of the ambitious and expensive program.

"It doesn't fundamentally change the equation, but it will help," he said.

Richard Marles says this shift will save Australia money. (Reuters: Edgar Su)

Shadow Defence Minister James Paterson said the shift "warrants a proper explanation from government — more than just a single sentence in a joint statement".

"I will be seeking an explanation from Defence at Senate estimates this week about why this change was made and what the implications are," he said.

The joint US-UK-Australia statement described the change as a mutual streamlining "simplifying supply-chain management, operational and maintenance requirements, and maximising cost efficiencies".

Dr Malcolm Davis from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) said Mr Marles was "correct" that getting three submarines of the same type would have advantages, but there was still no guarantee that the US would agree to sell them to Australia, with its shipyards struggling to lift production rates.

"The Americans still have to have sufficient numbers of boats in order to sell them to us," he said.

Dr Davis said the third second-hand Virginia-class submarine would also have a shorter shelf-life than a new one, although he said this would not necessarily have a major impact.

"We were going to face the same problem in the end … and we'll still get an awful lot of use from these Virginias," he said.

Defence Minister says second-hand subs will save money

Another analyst, Dr Euan Graham, who specialises in Indo-Pacific defence and security, said Mr Marles' argument for simplicity made sense, but it was worth taking it with a "grain of salt" because Australia's hand had likely been forced.

"The glass half empty version is that we are dealing with a curtailment of Australia's ambitions for Virginia-class submarines because this is all the Americans are willing to give us," he said.

"But the glass half full [version] is: this is still going ahead, despite the hand-wringing over the AUKUS review."

Dr Davis said the government also needed to clarify whether the US was open to selling Australia up to five Virginia-class submarines — as was originally flagged — or whether a ceiling had now been set on three.

"If it's the latter then we'll have to make do with three second-hand boats," he said.

"And if SSN AUKUS is delayed then we'll be facing a gap."

The announcement was made on the sidelines of the IISS Shangri La Dialogue. (Reuters: Edgar Su)

But military analyst Michael Shoebridge said the US Navy was simply reserving itself the "newest and most capable submarines" for itself.

"These second-hand Virginia-class submarines are less capable than the new ones," he said.

"Plus a new submarine is easier to maintain than an old submarine — just like a new car is easier to maintain than an old car."

Mr Shoebridge said Mr Marles' argument around simplicity when it came to maintaining the submarines was "nonsense" because Australia was already meant to be able to maintain every type of Virgina-class submarine at HMAS Stirling in Perth.

"If we're maintaining all the different Virginia-class variants that the US rotates through Stirling, then how does it make a difference what flag is on the boat?" he asked."