Submarine & Other Matters

I publish analysis about subs, other naval matters, nuclear weapons and broad political issues. Unlike most advanced countries Australian submarine changes are very slow. The first Collins LOTE may be limited to optronic masts (?) and only ready in 2030 (?). Triumphant Trump may decide to cancel Biden's "Democrat" AUKUS Virginia offer because the US Navy needs all operational SSNs right through to the 2040s. My colleagues Shawn C and Gessler are excellent writers. Pete

November 3, 2023

"Virginias for Australia": Too Few Virginias for USN

Virginia commissionings may actually DROP BELOW 1 per year as construction of the 12 Columbias is expected to be the US’s top construction priority from 2023 to 2042. [2]

By the mid 2030s all the Seawolf and Los Angeles class SSNs will have been retired.

So, from the mid 2030s, numbers of Virginias will be the US’s only SSN measure (for the foreseeable future).

The USN has long pointed to the numbers of SSNs it needs to efficiently operate. In December 2016 the USN indicated it would need 66 and in 2019 it estimated 66 to 72 SSNs. [3]

On a generous 1 Columbia SSBN and 1 Virginia commissioning per year the US will only have 42 Virginias (or SSNs of any type) in 2042.

This is recognizing severe submarine build labor shortages in the US (despite years of $Multi-Billion cash injections) have prevented the US industrial base from launching subs at a higher tempo.

In short “Virginias for Australia” is only an Australian and Biden slogan to keep AUKUS alive through to the mid 2040s when the first mainly UK designed SSN-AUKUS Might be available for Australia.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia-class_submarine#Overview

[3] see page 2 of US Congressional Research Service report Navy Virginia (SSN-774) Class Attack Submarine Procurement: Background and Issues for Congress of July 6, 2023, RL32418 at https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL32418/247

2 comments:

Anonymous said...: If the only way the RAN can get Virginias is by making the USN smaller, it is a zero-sum game for Indo-Pacific security. There is no force more important for security in Australia’s region than the US Navy. That has been true since the Battle of Coral Sea.; 11/04/2023 12:39 PM
Pete said...: Very true Anonymous at 11/04/2023 12:39 PM

This points to the likelihood the USN will persuade the President(s) who will rule from the late 2020s, when Biden will have retired

that no Virginias should be exported to Australia as they would principally be TRAINING Vessels for new RAN crews in the 2030s.

Rather the USN might argue the Virginias should all be retained in the USN because they will be sorely needed as OPERATIONAL Vessels.

The USN might also argue to Congress that scarcity of Virginias (only 42 operational when 72 are required) would point to a No Export Of Virginias policy.

Regards Pete; 11/05/2023 12:24 PM