"Virginias for Australia": Too Few Virginias for USN

US Virginia class construction is/has been demonstrably too slow to meet the USN’s SSN needs let alone having enough to export or lease 3 to 5 (used or new) Virginias to Australia.

Even before the first US Columbia class SSBN construction kicked in (in 2022-23) the US had only commissioned 22 Virginias in 19 years. [1] This is 1.16 Virginias being commissioned per year.

Virginia commissionings may actually DROP BELOW 1 per year as construction of the 12 Columbias is expected to be the US’s top construction priority from 2023 to 2042. [2]

By the mid 2030s all the Seawolf and Los Angeles class SSNs will have been retired.

So, from the mid 2030s, numbers of Virginias will be the US’s only SSN measure (for the foreseeable future).

The USN has long pointed to the numbers of SSNs it needs to efficiently operate. In December 2016 the USN indicated it would need 66 and in 2019 it estimated 66 to 72 SSNs. [3] 

On a generous 1 Columbia SSBN and 1 Virginia commissioning per year the US will only have 42 Virginias (or SSNs of any type) in 2042. 

This is recognizing severe submarine build labor shortages in the US (despite years of $Multi-Billion cash injections) have prevented the US industrial base from launching subs at a higher tempo. 

In short “Virginias for Australia” is only an Australian and Biden slogan to keep AUKUS alive through to the mid 2040s when the first mainly UK designed SSN-AUKUS Might be available for Australia.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia-class_submarine#Boats_in_class

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbia-class_submarine#Overview

[3] see page 2 of US Congressional Research Service report Navy Virginia (SSN-774) Class Attack Submarine Procurement: Background and Issues for Congress of July 6, 2023, RL32418 at https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL32418/247