16 or more Columbias due to Russian AND rising China Threats

Thanks Anonymous for your 5/10/2026 11:33 AM comment. 

More Than 12 Columbias?

Given rising threats from Russian and Chinese nuclear submarine fleets the US should strongly consider building more than the 12 scheduled Columbia-class SSBNs. More than 12 might already be a top secret intention.

-  For the US that will be 12 scheduled Columbias to construct until ~ 2043. In addition the US may well build 4 or more additional Columbias to achieve parity with an enlarged combination of new high quality threats (SSBNs and SSNs) from Russia and now also China. The China threat was not fully considered when the US was settling on Columbia production numbers in the 2010s. 

So potential threats to the US include:

    =   12 x Russian Borei SSBNs already built/building and 12 x Yasen SSNs built/building/planned

    =   China has not yet revealed its plans in nuclear submarine quality and quantity. However to build a global blue water nuclear submarine force China may want qualitive and quantitative parity with Russia and must also consider 4 to 6 x future Indian S5 SSBNs and up to 6 x Indian Project 77 SSNs as threats. 

     =   China has the shipbuilding capacity to design and high rate build 12+ x Type 096 SSBNs each with at least 16 x JL-3 or JL-4 SLBMs and 12+ x Type 095 SSNs.

Australia's AUKUS Needs?

Directly competing with the Columbia build is the Virginia SSN build and Virginia  maintenance programs. Indirectly, 3 to 5 Virginias earmarked for Australia under AUKUS, exacerbates problems with the Columbia build. 

More broadly all of Australia's real or imagined SSN allies (US, UK and France) are fully committed with current SSN construction. For example the Virginia program will reduce its construction drumbeat rate from 1.15 to 0.8 standard Virginias per year due to 1 Columbia per year being built from 2029. UK - final Astute(s) for UK Navy only, then straight to 15-20 years of Dreadnought SSBN production. France - final Suffrens for the French Navy only, then 20 years of SNLE-3G/newly named L'Invincible class SSBN production. All this prevents any spare SSN construction capacity for the Royal Australian Navy (RAN). That is unless South Korea's formidable SSN production potential kicks in to save Australia. 

France is also building/planning 3-5 non-Suffren, non-SSBN designs namely 4 x Orkas for the Netherlands, 1 x Brazilian Álvaro Alberto SSN, and perhaps 2 classes of small Scorpenes for Indonesia and the Philippines.  

I'll write further on nuclear submarine considerations of the UK, France and Australia around May 19, 2026.