This is a particularly good video here and above, courtesy Nguoi Giai Ma, of AsiaPacificMilitaryWatch entitled “HMS Prince of Wales in Australia: A New Era of UK-Indo-Pacific Dominance?” uploaded July 24/25, 2025.
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Shared between both QEs the UK Royal Navy has only "37 F-35B aircraft (including 3 or 4 based in the U.S.) [as of] May 2025,[45][46][47]"
Already the UK's NATO FIRST (against Russia) policies, with the UK to buy more than 100 F-35As (12 to be nuclear armed) are weakening any UK military assistance in defending Australia. The UK has decided to buy 12 F-35As (to be nuclear armed by 2030). This is instead of buying the planned 12 F-35Bs to strengthen the 2 QEs' (Queen Elizabeth and Prince of Wales) understrength airwings.
I'm glad another expert, on July 29, 2025, agreed https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/debate/aukus-stress-test-alliance-pressures-australia-s-strategic-choices .
Those 2 carriers are also weakly protected by a shortage of UK surface and SSN escorts when in the Indo-Pacific. It may be that, at the moment, the Royal Navy operates with its 2 QE carriers sharing the one airwing of 17 F-35Bs. The Royal Navy does not have enough escorts to protect both carriers simultaneously.
China's land based medium range DF-21D anti-ship missiles and intermediate range DF-26 missile (which may have an anti-ship capability) present a major threat to powerful US Nimitz/Ford-class carrier groups. The threat to weaker UK QE carrier groups is even greater.
Unlike the USN, which can send ships across the open Pacific Ocean, to Australia, the UK RN must send its ships through the straits and narrows of the Middle East and across the smaller Indian Ocean to reach Australia. It is in the narrows that China's large navy, with its powerful submarine force, can intercept under-protected QE carrier groups.
Like HMS Repulse and an earlier HMS Prince of Wales (both sunk by Japanese aircraft in 1941) the UK having nowhere near sufficient power projection to defend Australia, again applies to the UK's latest 2 big ships (the QE carriers).
13 comments:
Rue Britannia instead of Rule Britannia !
The failure of the RN submarine force is the most telling. There are no SSN protecting this flotilla. In 1982 there were 11 SSN and ~10 SSK available. Now there is 1-2 SSNs with priority going to SSBNs.
Hi Anonymous at 7/26/2025 8:01 AM
I've also copied an expanded version of your UK SSN comment to my earlier article "Astute Submarine Shortage: No Astute Rotations to Australia?" of July 18, 2025 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/07/astute-submarine-shortage-no-astute.html
Cheers Pete
Hi Pete! I was wondering what the best way to ask you some questions, if you'd be interested, about submarine warfare in the South China Sea. I'm writing a book and doing research and I happened across your page, trying to write as accurately as I can. i didn't see a contact form directly or I'd use that. Thank you, sir!
Hi WahooDaddy of the University of Virginia https://www.virginia.edu/
We could initially discuss "submarine warfare in the South China Sea" on the same Submarine Matters comments platform that you are using now.
Cheers Pete
Working as a coalition, with the Aussies and JMSDF and other regional partners, what d'you think the subsurface warfare scene would be like in the South and East China Seas? Do RAN/JMSDF subs have the endurance to stick it out against the PLAN? If the balloon went up with the PRC invading Taiwan, would the RAN/JMSDF hang back, or try to support kicking the PLAN back from their ops in the Taiwan Strait? I'm trying to look at it from a non-US perspective. I appreciate your thoughts and feedback!
Hi "WahooDaddy" using the University of Virginia's main website https://www.virginia.edu/ as an identity.
Before I answer your wide ranging questions, let me introduce myself. I'm Peter Coates, an Australian private researcher.
What is your name, citizenship and what University of Virginia faculty are you from?
Cheers Pete
Thanks "WahooDaddy" at 7/28/2025 12:53 PM
I've got all your details now, including your habit of sending emails late at night :)
I'll send you an email tomorrow when you wake up.
Cheers Pete
I agree. SSN AUKUS is 15 years away. So from now till 2040 the 7 Astutes are it, with probably no more than 2 at sea at one time. Given the growing threat of Russian SSNs and SSBNs, and the need to escorts SSBNs, its hard to see the RAN sending more than 1 Astute to the Pacific, if any.
Despite their huge size, Pete is correct to point out that the UK CVs have much less combat power than the US CVNs. It isn't just aircraft numbers. They have no CATOBAR launch or recovery, so lower sortie rate and shorter range.
What about the Singapore SSKs? They are modern, stealthy, have just acquired 4 and have ordered another 2. The Japanese SSKs are excellent, but what is their range and endurance? How long could they patrol as far south as Indonesia? (This is why I think AUKUS, with Australia acquiring some SSNs in 20 years time, rather than SSKs still capable in Indonesian waters now, is a terrible plan. It is based on relationships, not analysis.)
Thanks Scott at 7/29/2025 8:25 PM and 7/29/2025 8:33 PM
I, of course, agree. Only CATOBAR carriers can launch aircraft of longer range and larger war-load (without mid-air refueling).
Also only CATOBAR carriers (Nimitz, Fords and Charles de Gaulle) can launch large, long loiter E-2 Hawkeyes for airborne early warning (AEW).
Cheers Pete
Hi again Scott at 7/29/2025 8:36 PM
Yes Singaporean (conventional with AIP) SSKs and other Southeast Asian nation SSKs are well placed to patrol the straits and narrows of Southeast Asia.
Distance means shorter range Japanese and even longer range South Korean subs are less effective further south of the Luzon Strait. Those 2 countries also have their own immediate defensive concerns against China, even Russia and North Korea.
Only the US can handle the SSNs of Russia and China for speed and range. Also Southeast Asian countries would be hesitant to attack Russian-Chinese SSNs as that may make RusChi permanent enemies of Southeast Asian countries. While the US is now an uncertain ally "loyal to" America First.
With Build in Adelaide political certainties a new class of Aus SSKs would still take 15 years - the timeline of the Attack class.
Pete
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