This is a follow up to Shawn C’s excellent article “When the Carrier Prince of Wales Cruised into Singapore” of July 11, 2025 at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/07/when-carrier-prince-of-wales-cruised.html
See a
great photo of HMS Prince of Wales (PofW) docking in Singapore at https://www.navylookout.com/uk-carrier-strike-group-sails-to-australia-for-multinational-exercise/
China’s Type 815 ship Beijixing (Polaris). Photo courtesy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_815_spy_ship#Type_815
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Chinese spy ships (possibly Type 815s, photo and link above) are now in the Southeast Asian-Australian northern region, in part to monitor PofW, its F-35Bs and its carrier battle group https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-12/adf-watching-for-chinese-spy-ships-as-pm-heads-to-shanghai/105523778. This is during the Talisman Sabre 2025 (TS25) and Bersama Lima 25 exercises Shawn mentions.
Note the UK RN has insufficient ships (only 14 destroyers/frigates in the whole RN) to fully escort PofW and the carrier Queen Elizabeth on Indo-Pacific missions. Between one and three non-British escort ships always form part of their carrier battle groups. A US SSN might also lend a hand.
The Chinese navy's job is made easier
because PofW's coming and going from the Chinese owned port of Darwin can be
easily tracked. PofW will likely be docking at Kuru Wharf, HMAS Coonawarra,
Port of Darwin, mid to late July 2025. More on Kuru at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/03/darwin-port-hosts-us-ssn-us-submarine.html .
PofW is to host an afternoon tea for the Australian British Chamber of Commerce at Port of Darwin, Friday July 25, 2025. https://www.britishchamber.com/events/hms-prince-of-wales-darwin
A harder to spot Chinese Type 093 SSN surveillance submarine mission will also likely work with the Chinese spy ships, satellites and maybe UUVs, to surveil PofW and the other Western vessels involved in the 2025 exercises.
4 comments:
Hi Peter,
CSG21 was accompanied by HMS Astute, who must have picked up some interesting sonar reading while the CSG was transiting the Luzon Strait towards Guam.
You previously mentioned three Type 093 SSNs in a 2021 article.
https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2021/08/china-claims-its-093-ssns-intentionally.html
The 2023 BBC mini-series The Warship: Tour of Duty (which is available on Apple TV), shows a sequence where the frigate HMS Richmond picked up a PLAN Kilo and sent a Merlin ASW helo to fend it off.
https://youtu.be/DQ4wZ2wGFms?si=8kH7EXXe6hFbHdhz
HMS Astute did accompany CSG25 on the initial stages of the deployment, but is now in Devonport for Mid-Life Re-Validation Period (MLRP) which seems to be another term for MLU.
Of the five Astute-class submarines currently in commission: HMS Anson was reported in Gibraltar in early June, HMS Audacious has been in drydock since February 2025, HMS Artful and HMS Ambush have not left port in over two years, and the sixth vessel, HMS Agamemnon, 'should' enter service in 2025.
Hi Shawn at 7/14/2025 2:08 AM
You've put together some excellent points on Type 093 noise and UK Astute availability. Availability issues for China's 093s and Russia's Akula and Yasen SSNs are an unknown. Certainly US SSNs have major maintenance/availability problems - also noting building new Virginias and especially new Columbias, have priority.
It is unfortunate that UK Queen Elizabeth-class carriers are dependent on foreign navies to make up their 4 or 5 carrier group surface escorts and the US Marines to make up a sufficient F-35B airwing. Having an Astute to escort a UK carrier group the whole way is yet another problem. So these carriers are/would be paper tigers in a shooting war with China. In any case Russian concerns would dominate UK priorities - noting the UK's stated "NATO First" doctrine.
I think UK admirals hoped the 2 Elizabeths would act as political lightning rods to justify full surface, SSN escort and F-35B airwing complements - but this hasn't happened. Greater UK army and RAF forces to counter Russia are probably now greater priorities.
The 6 Astutes dangerously low availability levels bodes ill for Australia's aim of buying UK SSN-AUKUSes (Astute 2.Os?). Even before that the availability of even one Astute serving one month every 3 years for Australia's Fleet Base West SSN rotation plans is a faint hope.
I'll look at https://youtu.be/DQ4wZ2wGFms?si=8kH7EXXe6hFbHdhz and report back.
Cheers Pete
The Invincible-class carriers taught the RN that size matters over a carrier's life, for while the Audacious-class R09 Ark Royal was able to operate Sea Venoms to F4 Phantoms in her 24-year career, her Invincible-class replacement R07 could only operate Harrier variants.
The size of the QE-class will enable they're capabilities to expand. QE herself is now scheduled for seven months of drydock maintenance, and I won't be surprised if she emerges with more unmanned capabilities, such as the VSR700 and the Grey Eagle STOL.
While we marvel at how the RN is capable of fulfilling its NATO commitments with 13 escort vessels, at least their Type 26 and Type 31 replacement programs are now delivering vessels.
PoFW deployed with the first Merlin Crowsnest units - a flawed helicopter AEW system that will be phased out in 2029, because of some daft decision to recycle the hardware from the Sea King AEW that first flew in the 1980s. I reckon they will be replaced with Grey Eagle STOL UAVs with a podded AEW system.
With the RN's Astute sustainment issue coinciding with RAN's Collins class LOTE refurbishment concerns, under AUKUS, the RN could decide to base two Astutes at HMS Stirling after 2030, with RAN crewmembers, for dedicated Indo-Pacific patrols, and work with ASC on local maintenance (not including the nuclear tea-kettle).
Hi Shawn at 7/16/2025 6:03 PM
See my 2 articles of July 18 in response to your comments, being:
https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/07/astute-submarine-shortage-no-astute.html
and
https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2025/07/nato-first-uk-nuclear-strike-aircraft.html
A major change to the UK's previous SSBN-only nuclear deterrent - initially using shared US B61 nuclear bombs. I'll write more about that next week.
Cheers Pete
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