Over years China steps up its "heart and minds" soft power campaigns. For example those that apply to Taiwanese, US and Australian youth visits to China.
If Taiwan (T) does not surrender peacefully to diplomacy and economic pressure (like American style punitive tariffs):
Buy up sufficient overland piped Russian gas and oil for a stockpile sufficient for one year's supply in China.
Ask Russia to put decoy or actual pressure on Kazakhstan, Georgia, the Baltic States and anywhere else Putin wants.
SURPRISE ATTACK?
Launch a mass cyber attack to disrupt T communications, internet, financial, trade and transport facilities. Expect and combat cyber retaliation from T and the US.
Launch sabotage plans by Special Forces' Sleeper Cells and assassinations, if deniable (at initial stage).
Take out Taiwan's (T's) air defenses using hypersonic missiles mainly launched by SSGNs and XLUUVs close to T's shore - mainly from seas East of Taiwan.
Using missiles, drones and aircraft destroy T's energy stockpiles and block ships exporting the 98% of T's energy to T in the form of natural gas, coal, oil and some LEU Uranium.
Simultaneously destroy T's merchant (not passenger) ships and naval shipping (including T's submarines) using missiles, drones, aircraft, pre-laid smart mines. "killer" UUVs and torpedoes.
- Pre-laid undersea sonar/magnetic sensors that ring Taiwan will locate T's submarines and small missile craft that evade aerial and satellite sensors.
- Beware of T and US UUVs and smart mines.
- Combat the US Navy if it is hostile, especially US subs.
OR
BLOCKADE?
Inspired by Anonymouse’ July 24th comment I add:
As T produces only 1/3rd of its food needs T’s food and
energy vulnerabilities may make blockade a very effective PRC strategy.
Although the PRC would lose the element of surprise in imposing a multi-month
blockade.
PRC smart mines-killer UUVs (in "shipping channels to Taipei and
Kaohsiung") present an alternative to the need to seize and develop
islands around T PRIOR to a takeover of T.
Temporarily, long range anti-air and anti-ship missiles from the PRC mainland, its
SSGNs, warships. aircraft and large mother-drones could shutdown Western nation
air and ship intervention to support T.
Post invasion, PRC take over of those islands around T would:
- more firmly guarantee PRC's ability to protect its new T possession and
- more easily transit ships and submarines through the First Island Chain that
had hitherto blocked access to the Western Pacific.
Responses from Japan? South Korea?
Singapore, India and Australia seizing or sinking PRC vessels in the Indian Ocean?
Western banking system freezing PRC assets worldwide?
Additional items for this To Do List?
3 comments:
Pete I only bring the understanding of a transport engineer who plays hex and counter wargames to this question. Nevertheless to me the Chinese course of action is blindingly obvious. Taiwan has a rugged coast with limited beach landing opportunities. Yet it only produces 1/3 of its food, making blockade an obvious strategy. Without shipping Taiwan soon runs out of food and export revenue.
The key ports are Taipei in the north and Kaoshung in the south. There is only one small port on the west coast, Hualein, with limited capacity. A continuation of China’s island base strategy to cut off shipping to these ports would seem a mortal threat to Taiwan. If China seizes the disputed Japanese Senkaku Islands in the north (Chinese Diaoyu Islands) and Taiwanese Orchid Island and the Philippines Batanes Islands to the south it could cut off the shipping channels to Taipei and Kaohsiung. Both could be subject to SSM and SAM batteries 150 to 170km away. The Senkakus are not inhabited.
Thanks Anonymous at 7/24/2025 8:30 AM
I'll integrate your comments into the article.
Taiwan's food and energy vulnerabilities make blockade a very effective PRC strategy.
PRC smart mines-killer UUVs (in "shipping channels to Taipei and Kaohsiung") present an alternative to the need to seize and develop islands PRIOR to a takeover of Taiwan.
Temporarily, anti-air and anti-ship missiles from PRC's mainland, SSGNs, warships. aircraft and large mother-drones could shutdown Western nation air and ship access to Taiwan.
Post invasion, PRC take over of those islands around Taiwan would:
- more firmly guarantee PRC's ability to protect its new Taiwan possession and
- more easily transit ships and submarines through the First Island Chain that had hitherto blocked access to the Western Pacific.
Regards Pete
Hi Pete,
As a Singaporean, I have a great admiration for the ROC, who helped us when Singapore was in its growing pangs. Singapore still sends soldiers to Taiwan under 'Exercise Starlight', which the PRC have known about for decades - they offered training in Hainan as an alternative, but were politely turned down.
We used to hold division size maneuver exercises in Starlight, but that's now moved to Wallaby - Singapore army soldiers still wear Taiwanese uniforms to 'blend in' - though I always saw this as a bit of a joke, having served with practising Sikhs, but any CCCP attack on the ROC has to take this into account and muddles their calculation, which is the point.
The ROC-PRC question is highly complicated, and Singapore is involved, whether we want to or not, by our friendship with both. There is no black or white now, only shades of grey, depending on your perspective.
Lee Kuan Yew stated in 1999 that no CCCP leader would allow Taiwan to declare independence, and this is very true under Xi, but the PRC is still wary of what its people endured under the COVID lockdown, and the millions of Chinese tourists across the world in the last two years is a major sign of China's global political and economic influence, and a major sign to the CCCP that the Chinese people need a relief valve. Can China endure a three-five year period with Belarus, NK, Iran, Veneszuela and Russia as their only trade partners? Maybe not.
The ROC welds immense global economic power with TSMC and Foxconn, including within the PRC, but a pivot to favour Trumps' MAGAland anti-China laws may backfire on them, as this makes them more vunerable to China's counter moves.
My main concern with the ROC is social conditioning - the PRC have had half a century to position the ROC as a 'rouge island' while the ROC relaxed its national service to ludricious levels (4 months!) until 2024.
They really need a massive revamp of their national service and reservist system, and should send 'observers' to Israel or Singapore, where the first-to-fight aren't 19-year ond kids doing their first year of training, they are the combat ready Reservists who have spent a 10 year reservist cycle with up to 40 days a year of training.
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