Here is Gessler’s first comment above the ++++ of Nov 7, 2024
"I wonder if the 'alternative' proposals listed in the Congressional Research
Service (CRS) report mentioned in one of your previous articles (linked below)
would find traction under a Trump administration. Namely, the one that calls
for the Virginia-class SSNs meant to be sold to Australia instead being owned
& operated by the US Navy itself...while SSN-AUKUS program proceeds in
parallel with the UK.
https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/02/would-be-ssn-countries-us-rejected.html
It's also possible that Trump will instead argue in favour of building the
AUKUS boats in the US itself (perhaps based on SSN-X instead of UK's SSN-R
design) in an attempt to create more jobs for American workers & yards
while promising to deliver each boat to USN & RAN at a cheaper price
instead (as the cost per boat would naturally go down if the number of SSNX
hulls increase, plus the cost of building all-new nuclear submarine
infrastructure in Australia would no longer be a factor).
Remains to be seen what Trump will do with AUKUS."
To which Pete2 replied:
I think Trump might be guided by US Navy insistence that the USN needs ALL the the Virginia SSNs operational now (ie. no second hand SSNs for Australia) AND USN needs all the new Virginia's.
This does not preclude Australia getting a clapped-out, Los Angeles-class moored SSN for immobile training use at Fleet Base West, Western Australia. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moored_training_ships like USS La Jolla (SSN-701) and USS San Francisco (SSN-711)
Regarding "Virginia-class SSNs meant to be sold to Australia instead
being owned & operated by the US Navy itself." This is in some respects what is planned for the maybe half US/UK squadron sized "Submarine Rotational Force (SRF-West) " maybe from as early as 2027. The US and maybe UK may provide this force at HMAS Stirling (Fleet Base West).
- One sub may be a UK Astute. Although the UK RN is already facing severe crew shortages even for those Astutes meant to meet the UK's own Atlantic-Arctic oceans - Mediterranean needs. However, on occasions when an Astute operates in the Persian Gulf - Arabian Sea - Indian Ocean area Australia may get a port visit once every 2 - 3 years. Three years may already be the pattern with Astutes and earlier UK Trafalgar-class SSN visits. Also see other factors minimising Astute squadron readiness https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/the-royal-navys-submarine-readiness-issue/
The main hope therefore is one or two US Virginia SSNs (rotated) ie. forward based at Fleet Base West from about 2027 to 2036 when Australia might receive its first purchased Virginia. See https://www.asa.gov.au/projects/submarine-rotational-force-west-infrastructure-project
and https://www.defence.gov.au/about/locations-property/infrastructure-projects/submarine-rotational-force-west-infrastructure-project
The downside for Australia relying on US crewed Virginias through to 2036 is they will be used to meet US national
interests. These may note coincide with Australian national interests. This is especially if the US decides on a war with Australia's largest trading partner (and 2008 GFC saviour) China - a war that Australia's doesn't want to Coalition of the Willing participate in.
In fact I think it unlikely the US will sell ANY used or new Virginias to Aus in
the 2030s due to the critical short-medium-long term shortage of SSNs even for
sole USN use.
The Virginias (through to Block VIIIs) and US specialized SSN(X)s can/will only be built in the US. The
UK-Aus specialized SSN-AUKUSs can only be fully designed built and tested first
in the UK (from the late 2030s).
I think the SSN-AUKUS with the US combat system (integrated by Lockheed Martin) can then be laid down in Australia
about 2040, but they will only be completed in the mid 2040s. See https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-au/products/systems-integration/maritime-systems-integration-undersea.html
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