After 10am Wednesday
Australian Eastern (AE) time US swing state Exit Poll https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exit_poll results
may start pointing to a winner. After AE 4pm, once Alaska and
Hawaii voting has ended, official results may start flowing in in
significant numbers. If it is a
landslide, by AE 7pm we may know who won.
Iowa (6 votes) is usually Trump territory. According to
election “oracle” Ann Selzer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Selzer Harris
may be ahead in Iowa, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-04/donald-trump-criticises-poll-after-kamala-harris-prediction/104556162 .
In part due to this new
Iowa expectation Trump may be unnerved, feeling he is losing.
Hence Trump has returned to his 2020 mantra “this Election has been
stolen”. Such talk may be a Trump mistake immediately before this 2024
election as it may remind Americans of the Trump prompted January 6,
2021 Capitol riot.
It is widely assumed the 7 swing state votes will decide the whole Election. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_state The swing states are Pennsylvania 19 votes; Michigan 15, Wisconsin 10, North Carolina 16; Georgia 16; Arizona 11 and Nevada 6 (Nevada has many postal votes that delays the final results). All are considered “tossups” as they are so close. Like Iowa Florida (30 votes) needs close watching. Florida is currently assumed to be a Trump state (he won it by 3.36% in 2020), It was Florida that won George W. Bush the 2000 Election by only 537 recounted votes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_recount_in_Florida
There might be no clear result on November 5 US time (November 6 Australian time). Instead it may be so close there may be a week of vote recounting. This is especially in the 7 Swing States and maybe Iowa and Florida. The Presidential winner might then emerge after Sunday 10 November.
If Harris wins it will likely be continuity after January 20, 2025 Inauguration Day. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_presidential_inauguration
The ugly alternative? The Australian Government and most informed Australians are very nervous about the possibility of a Trump win.
Trump sees himself as a tough, business savvy, negotiator. He does not respect international alliances, even NATO. The US Navy is also increasingly (and secretly) advising that US industry is failing to produce, repair or overhaul sufficient Virginias for USN needs in the 2020s through to the 2040s. Trump may well see AUKUS future Virginia submarines for Australia as a "weak Biden Democrat" deal. If so Trump might cancel that deal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS#Australia%E2%80%93UK%E2%80%93US_negotiations
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