Hello to readers of Pete's blog! This is my (Gessler's) first post here since Pete made me a co-author so I'll try not to mess this up.
I originally commented (on Pete's article regarding Collins Life of Type Extension (LOTE)) about the Indian Navy's 2024 deployment to the South China Sea making Singapore their first stop.
I speculated at the time that the Indian Navy (IN) deployment which consists of: INS Kiltan a Kamorta-class ASW corvette; INS Delhi an upgraded Delhi-class destroyer; and INS Shakti a Fincantieri-built Deepak-class fleet tanker, could have the Philippines on its itinerary given the upsurge in defence and strategic relations between New Delhi and Manila in recent times.
Shawn C had commented that the Indian deployment could also call on Vietnam's ports, pointing to the potential of an increased strategic relationship between India and Vietnam as well.
It turns out, we were both right with our speculations: The Indian contingent has visited both Vietnam's Cam Ranh Bay and the Philippines' naval anchorage in Manila!
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| INS Kiltan at Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam --- |
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| INS Shakti at Manila harbour, Philippines --- |
The intent of the 'regularization' of India's naval deployments to the South China Sea includes Delhi's extension of diplomatic support to Pacific states troubled by China's expansionism. This seems to be a message aimed squarely at Beijing and is a probable response to China's increasing reach in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Aspects include: China's deployment of naval task forces to the western periphery of the IOR; China's construction of strategic/dual-use infrastructure around India; as well as China's almost continuous deployment of various intelligence-gathering vessels to monitor India's missile tests and naval activity.
How these deployments and counter-deployments evolve over the next few years will probably be interesting to followers of geopolitics to keep an eye on...especially as the number and frequency of vessels increase. Of interest as well will be any increasing possibility of actual confrontations.
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Speaking of India's naval deployments to friendly states, it seems there may be a major event soon. An Indian Navy (IN) aircraft carrier may make its maiden visit to Australia to participate in an International Fleet Review in 2026 celebrating the Royal Australian Navy's (RAN's) 125th anniversary. It's not yet known which of India's two carriers, INS Vikrant or INS Vikramaditya, will visit. Either way, I reckon a number of cross-decking exercises between rotary wing assets of both the IN and RAN (flying off Canberra-class LHDs) is to be expected at some point during the visit.
Though it's also possible we don't have to wait that long to see exercises of that kind between IN and RAN.
Cheers,
Gessler
4 comments:
Hi Gessler
In this your first superb co-authored article China and India's exchange of encroaching flotillas is a fresh new angle to view tensions between those countries.
I wonder if China will develop general merchant, oil and gas SLOC protection forces (from the Red Sea, Persian Gulf and Horn of Africa) against pirate activity over the long term?
Also might China, in the short-medium term, might develop SLOC protection forces against the Iran supported Houthis/Yemen missile/drone firing rebels during the Israel-Hamas War?
China SLOC protection efforts could be supported by the PLA Support Base in Djibouti which is a military base operated by China's PLAN, located in Djibouti in the Horn of Africa. It is the PLAN's first overseas military base, built for US$590 million. "The facility is expected to significantly increase China's power projection in the Horn of Africa and the Indian Ocean, as well as the PLAN's blue water capabilities." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Support_Base_in_Djibouti
Cheers Pete
@Pete2 at 1:24 PM
Indeed Pete. Though I believe when it comes to Iran or Iran-backed militias, the Chinese are likely to get into some sort of an agreement with Tehran that allows them to positively identify & leave Chinese-flagged vessels (or vessels headed to China) alone when the shooting starts.
Though when dealing with loose cannons like the Houthis, it remains to be seen how effectively such "friend or foe" identification can be done.
Cheers
Hi again Gessler
There has been so little about an International Fleet Review 2026 hosted by Australia that I suspect it may not eventuate. The net reduction in surface ships for the RAN might be too embarrassing for Australia.
A shame really. The Indian carrier INS Vikrant or INS Vikramaditya visiting Australia would be very impressive.
Cheers Pete
Hi Gessler at 5/24/2024 10:06 PM
Yes China could make a deal with Iran. Iran needing all the allies it can get (already has Russia in a loose alliance) against the long awaited Israeli mass missile/airstrike against Iran's nuclear facility. And Iran is worried about US carrier groups and SSGNs again in striking distance of Iran.
I agree on the Houthis, an unpredictable mob.
Regards Pete
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