Regarding the Walrus Replacement competition.
Jaime Karremann, at Dutch website Marine Schepen (Naval Ships) on
March 7, 2024, at https://marineschepen.nl/nieuws/9-vragen-over-finale-nieuwe-onderzeeboten-070324.html commented:
“Despite unconfirmed reports that French shipyard Naval Group will emerge victorious, no formal decision has yet been announced. This [announcement] is expected to happen on Friday, March 15,” [2024]
[In
Australia this would be on Saturday, March 16]
Pete Comment
French Naval Group is offering the
diesel-electric Shortfin Barracuda design. It is also possible that one of the
3 competitors (Saab, TKMS or Naval Group) will be eliminated – making it a 2 horse
race until a further elimination – eventually leaving the winner in a year or 2.
This competition has been covered heavily https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/search?q=walrus
by Submarine Matters over the last
decade all the way back to Kevin in 2015.
15 comments:
Hi Pete,
Saab and Damen have announced a collaboration to export the Dutch variant, likely aiming at upcoming procurement contests.
https://www.navaltoday.com/2024/03/07/damen-and-saab-agree-on-export-of-c-71-submarines/
Bloomberg,de Telegraaf articles..
Rumours..
Nothing in the French press,relaying the rumours with a heavy dose of skepticism
Contrary to Saab /Damen or Tkms offers NG meets the requirement but has the wrong partner vs Damen
The obstacles are political and psychological
If your read Karremans article that’s what also émerges
Intersestingly AIP is not perceived as an obvious advantage in the Li batteries era..Karremans uses a dutch word meaning « empty
load to be supported » with a ?
The dutch Navy, very close to the UK Royal Navy, is a true "blue" navy , sailing from the Red Sea (Dutch merchant navy , oil..) to Aruba facing Venezuelian..with a strong historical wolrdwide root
Its conventional sub are the strongest/experienced conventional sub forces in NATO, facing n russians in the North sea and in the N Atlantic
Technically its requirements are vey close to the Barracuda.The TKMS 212CDE is a stretch from the Norwegiean which was already a strech. Similatr for SAAB.The AIP facing Li batteries may not be such an advantage(translation of "last " is also "burden " in English
Naval has a succesful reputation of TOT in Brazil and India and as TKMS (but not really SAAB) has produced at lea6st one sub/Year , every year,over the last 75 years
The detailed enginnering is well advanced thanks to the "Australian story"which paid for
Conversely Damen (competes with Naval in Surface)is a key player in the Dutch defense Industry with significant MP support
French interests are perceived negatively often in the Netherland '(and "played" by its competitors in the communication arena, see Kerremann article that spent quite a lot of time on the subject for a technical article).Basically the "French "are "too catholic , "too mediterranean" "crook/cheaters by nature" probably !
This why the french press is quite skeptic
**
Due the war in Ukraine most of the EU member states are rebuilding ther armies. Same with the Netherlands. If there will be announcement next week it will be the winner. contract negotiations will begin right after and signing of the contract will be just before summer, so 2 will drop out.
The Dutch government don't want to waste any more time, in the last 2 weeks or so they autorist the development of 2 new ship classes. 4 airdefenders of 8.000 to 10.000 tons and 6 amphibious assault ships (a co-project with the UK).
regards Kevin
@Anonymous 3/08/2024 7:01 PM
AIP is not needed for the Dutch use case with the new developments in batteries.
The Dutch use their submarines like there are nuclear submarines. The logistics for AIP can be seen as a burden and as a liability.
kevin
Thanks all for your comments
I noticed https://www.navaltoday.com/2024/03/07/damen-and-saab-agree-on-export-of-c-71-submarines/ which could imply Saab-Damen are salvaging their Walrus replacement (WalRep) design from a loss in the Netherlands.
If WalRep has a long range Attack-class like mission profile then AIP (which TKMS and Saab feature) might not be important - leaning to a NG sub with Saft LIB batteries.
Yet the Saab-Damen WalRep solution has long been seen as a local Netherlands build favourite.
If the Dutch are pouring funding into their second Cold War army and missile/air force this suggests less money available for the 4 WalReps - tending to a non-AIP sub - NG's fitting the bill.
Regards Pete
The Naval Group has offered The Netherlands a boat which is 99 % similar to the Shortfin Barracuda offered to Australia. The Dutch version is shorter at 93 meters, while the Aussie version is 97 meters long.
Detailed engineering.
I have a question: how much time is already spent at the detailed engineering for the Attack class ?
Australia and France signed at 20 December 2016 the $ 50 billion contract.
With a planned first steel cutting starting in 2022.
However, the production contract was signed at 11 February 2019.
This agreement got it's AUKUS death kiss at 16 September 2021.
Locum sends,
Hi Locum at 3/11/2024 7:42 AM
Only a person with special access to Australian Government, Naval Group (NG) and/or Dutch Government highly classified information could accurately claim:
"The Naval Group has offered The Netherlands a boat which is 99 % similar to the Shortfin Barracuda offered to Australia. The Dutch version is shorter at 93 meters, while the Aussie version is 97 meters long."
How much can you reveal about your source(s)?
I HAVE NO SPECIAL ACCESS - JUST LONG EXPERIENCE OF OVERT SUBMARINE INFO.
Regarding "how much time is already spent at the detailed engineering for the Attack class ?"
DCNS (now NG) was carrying out some basic designing on a conventional variant (termed SMX OCEAN) of the Barracuda SSN in 2014, if not before https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2014/10/revised-frances-dcns-announces-smx.html
Also in 2014, to meet the requirements of Australia's SEA 1000 competition, for a very large SSK DCNS (which became NG) would likely have been carrying out some detailed engineering on the hull, diesels and pumpjet of the never completed Attack class design. With NG's early info being supplied to Aus Gov from 2014.
See the following link publicised on April 28, 2016 https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2016/04/specifications-for-shortfin-barracuda.html
Cheers Pete
Locum, you cannot state that without quoting any sources.
In the recent articles, the new French submarine for Netherlands is now called "The Black Sword" and not "Shortfin" like for AUS exAttack class.
Both designs are probably widely inspired from the new Suffren class SSN (previously called Barracuda).
Shortfin Barracuda was announced to have the same length and diameter than its nuclear father. But in past articles and YouTube interviews, 2 or 3 years ago, it was mentioned that the French submarine for The Netherlands submarine replacement will have a displacement of 3000t, a length of 80 meters and a smaller diameter (8 meters?) than the 5000t Suffren Class (and Attack class).
It is also quite sure that the French are not authorized by the Australian Governement to use the whole design they paid for (and which contains a lot of classified stuff) for another country.
I agree with you Anonymous at 3/11/2024 10:39 AM
Your comment:
"in past articles and YouTube interviews, 2 or 3 years ago, it was mentioned that the French submarine for The Netherlands submarine replacement will have a displacement of 3000t, a length of 80 meters and a smaller diameter (8 meters?) than the 5000t Suffren Class (and Attack class).
It is also quite sure that the French are not authorized by the Australian Government to use the whole design they paid for (and which contains a lot of classified stuff) for another country."
is much more convincing.
Regards Pete
It looks increasingly likely that Naval has indeed won this contract. Multiple Dutch news services announced it overnight Australian time.
https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/03/netherlands-to-order-four-new-submarines-from-french-shipbuilder/
The official announcement is stated to occur this Friday, but evidently losing tenderers are informally notified in advance.
Thanks Anonymous at 3/13/2024 6:07 PM
I've turned your comment into article:
"Further Reports France Won Walrus Replacement"
of March 13, 2024
at https://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2024/03/further-reports-france-won-walrus.html
Regards Pete
Walrus replacement derived from Shortfin Barracuda.
Pete, this was leaked by somebody in the Dutch navy. This source is reliable. Shortly afterwards, a well informed French source confirmed this. But added that the Attack class is not 97 meters long, but 94 m. The French source said that Naval Group spent at least a bit more than 2,5 years at the detailed engineering. Australia spent 2 billion euro for the Shortfin Barracuda research and development. This will give Naval Group an advantage in design costs and risks.
See also the comment of the anonyme French at 13 March 2024 Further reports Walrus replacement.
The 3.000 tonnes SMX 3.0 is a concept submarine, like concept cars in the automotive industrie. And therefore is not offered.
Goodday, Locum.
Hi Locum at 3/15/2024 7:20 AM
The French advice you've received might be confirmed by Dutch Government announcements in 10+ hours after the Dutch cabinet meets on this issue Friday Dutch time.
Regards Pete
Hi Locum, a submarine of these size is actually too big for the current base in Den Helder, especially the shiplift and maintenance hall.
The main European/French TV media gives some technical data different from what we may have seen previously on Attack class or Barracuda SSNs.
https://www.tf1info.fr/economie/chiffres-taille-longueur-propulsion-fiche-technique-le-barracuda-ce-sous-marin-francais-qui-vient-d-etre-vendu-a-la-marine-neerlandaise-pays-bas-2289595.html
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