Taiwan: Chinese Shandong Carrier: Submarine Activity

The carrier Shandong with one of its Chinese escorts.
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Over the last 24 hours China’s second aircraft carrier, Shandong, has been exercising with escorts about 300km east off Taiwan’s east coast. This is a political move in reaction to the meeting between Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen and US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Shandong is probably escorted by a group consisiting of a Chinese Type 093 SSN in front, maybe 2 pre-positioned Yuan-class SSKs, a Type 055 cruiser sized destroyer and maybe 3 or 4 smaller escorts (probably Type 054 frigates and/or Type 052D destroyers and/or Type 056 corvettes).

The Shandong Carrier Group entered the western Pacific through the Bashi Channel between southern Taiwan and northern Luzon, Philippines. It was southeast of Taiwan about 20 hours ago. The group then sailed north, putting it due east of Taiwan.
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In reaction Taiwanese P-3C Orion aircraft would have shadowed the Shandong Group. Long range radars in Taiwan and undersea sensors (working to Taiwanese, US and Jpanese stations) would have monitored it. As the Shandong is listed as only having a fixed wing force of 32 J-15 fighters (with only moderate fuel loads because there is no catapult assist on Shandong) Shandong couldn’t dominate Taiwan’s airspace. 

Instead Shandong might complicate the approach of US and allied relief ships and aircraft trying to send troops, ammunition, fuel and food to Taiwan in the buildup to a medium intensity confrontation. So Shandong may be better for blockading shipping and airspace than fighting allied naval units. Submarines might easily torpedo it, missiles hit it, or smartmines sink it in a medium to high intensity war. 

US satellites would be tracking it around the clock as would probably be 2 US SSNs (maybe one from Submarine Squadron 15, based at Guam and another that has been visiting the US naval base at Yokosuka, Japan).

As Submarine Matters has long been advised that the Bashi Channel is a standard patrol area for Japanese Soryu and Oyashio-class submarinese they would also be quietly watching the Shandong Group.

We can expect further Chinese missile, aircraft and warship incursions next time a senior US politician meets the Taiwan's President.